In this post, I argue that while the APC Presidential candidate won the first round of his battle with the “elements in the presidency” (also known as cabal), there is no guarantee that he will this second round. This is because while it is clear his allies, the governors, control the party machinery and worked it to his advantage, nobody knows how influential the governors (not just APC’s but PDP’s and the remaining parties) and the party structure will be in the 2023 election.

I start this post with a definition of power that I think is pertinent:

the capacity or ability to direct or influence the behaviour of others or the course of events

What we have seen in the APC since end of May/early June of 2022 is a very brutal power tussle, and how it will end, nobody knows. Who is going to win this arm wresting?

Last year, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu blew everything into the open during a speech he made in Abeokuta, you can watch here. Abeokuta was significant because it was the capital of the state of one of his key competitors, the Vice President of Nigeria. In the speech, he said it was his turn and that he helped Buhari to become president. It was clear his main issue here was to challenge his party members in Ogun state not to back their own son, Prof Osibajo but to back him.

Something was lost in translation because Adamu, the Chairman of APC had a press conference soon afterwards denouncing Tinubu’s outbursts, that he was rude and disrespectful to the president and he threatened sanctions if he continues (watch here). If you watch the clip and you speak Yoruba language, it is really hard for you to come to such a conclusion.

Rumors were flying. It was very evident that there was a group within the APC political structure keen on another candidate or candidates. Or, bent on ensuring Tinubu did not win the ticket. The perception in the air was that Tinubu got himself into trouble with that speech and if you heard the proverb of Adamu which goes like this: “if you take some grass from a thatched roof, you can’t put it back”, you have to conclude that Adamu felt that Tinubu has crossed a threshold that is not reparable.

Before Tinubu’s speech, Buhari had appealed to the Governors to allow him to choose his successor, just as he allowed them to choose theirs. There is a clip of that report here. This implies that despite his executive power, choosing his preferred successor was not just up to him. Having to appeal to the governors implies that he knew he needed their support to choose a successor. Was this part of what drove Tinubu’s anger during that Emilokan speech?

It was at this point that Tinubu’s political clout within the APC became apparent. First, the news came out the Chairman of the party, Adamu, announced a candidate to the National Working Committee (watch here) and the candidate of choice was Ahmed Lawan. That kickstarted a series of events which demonstrated the political clout of Asiwaju Tinubu. The NWC did not agree with the APC chairman and the Northern governors orchestrated a series of moves that resulted in allowing all the candidates to contest the primaries. The coronation that most of the candidates had hoped for when they bought their 100,000,000 naira nomination form was not going to happen for any of them.

This was the birth of the so called “cabal” or “element within the presidency” bent on imposing a candidate of their choice. It is not very clear who that candidate of choice was for the cabal. Was it Ahmed Lawan or the Vice President?

It appeared as if Asiwaju Tinubu prevailed against the cabal, but the rumours of cabal working against him persisted. It will be Tinubu himself who would again blow open the simmering issues in the background. Not surprisingly, this happened in the South West city of Abeokuta, watch the speech here.

The clip started with a chant in Yoruba “hide the naira, hide the fuel, we will vote, we will win”. He alleged that there are people who don’t want the elections to happen and want to cause troubles. More allegations on fuel, and naira redesign and he promised a revolution, claiming he would win regardless. His drummers and musicians were busy with what the Yorubas called “orin owe”, can be interpreted “proverbial songs”. Innuendos about traitors were the themes. Who are the traitors in his mind here? The VP, Buhari? The media went to town with it.

Once again, Tinubu’s comments triggered a series of events. His comments became the talking point, with his political enemies accusing him of lack of money for vote buying and his political allies claiming that he was speaking for the people. Not surprisingly, one of his allies, Malam El Rufai came out in his defence. We learn so many things from him:

(1)Buhari did not want to choose a chairman but the Governors persuaded him to do so. It seems as if Buhari was not interested in installing a successor. Why? Was this because he is disinterested or because he is a democrat? El Rufai claimed Buhari agreed a successor must come from the South. However, “elements in the villa” (cabal?) wanted Buhari to choose a Northerner:

(2)The APC Northern Governors took a stand to ensure a Southern Candidate comes through and defeated the cabal. Furthermore, the 22 APC governors are working for Tinubu’s election.

(3)Ahmed Lawan was never the choice of Buhari, regardless of the claim of Adamu, the APC Chairman. The Governors went in to Buhari who denied it was the case. Buhari requested a list of five Southerners and the governors presented Osibajo, Tinbu, Amaechi ,Umahi and Fayemi. Buhari eventually didn’t pick any and allowed everybody to contest. According to El Rufai, it was the “elements in the villa” (the cabal?) that wanted Lawan.

(4)From what El Rufai said here, the APC is suffering, especially in the north from the fuel and currency crisis and this according to him is why the PDP candidate doesn’t want extension. He claimed that Naira is not the only currency for vote buying. Even the CFA (spent in Niger and other West African Countries) can be used for the same purpose. El Rufai strengthens his claim that the chaos is politically motivated by the Cabal to punish the APC Candidate:

There is no doubt that there is a power tussle within the APC. On one is the presidential candidate and probably the party structure controlled by the Governors. On the other side is an “element in the presidency”, often called the cabal. Who are the members of the cabal? El Rufai argued that Buhari is not part of this cabal. Regardless of who is and is not a member, one thing is clear: there is power in the office of Executive President. Power to bring forward polices, like Naira redesign and create chaos in the country if it so desires.

The APC candidate has showed his capacity to exercise power via his speech. This was very clear in June last year when his speech set up a chain reaction that caused powerful political forces within his party to rise up and fight for him. He won against the cabal eventually. Winning against a cabal within your party is possible if you are integral to that party and have worked hard for it over the years.

During the last week of January, Asiwaju Tinubu again used his speech to tell the country that he has adversary working against him. El Rufai took a leave from that and has been busy doing the media rounds. He seemed to have galvanized Tinubu’s supporters to fight for him. However, his battle this time around is very different. While his allies, the governors, control the party structure, it is not clear how decisive their influence is among the electorates.

If it is true that a cabal is responsible for the current chaos in Nigeria, it has dealt a blow to the APC’s presidential candidate. Whether he likes it or not, Asiwaju Tinubu is closely associated with the APC, after all, he is a founding father. The twin of fuel scarcity and currency shortage cannot be endearing the APC party and its candidates to Nigerians.

El Rufai is clearly alarmed about the negativity the lack of fuel and currency has created for the party and its candidate, especially in the North. What can he and the allies of their candidate do about this? How can they make this crisis go away in three weeks? What power can they exercise to influence the course of events in the next three weeks? That will determine who wins this battle of supremacy.

All the while, the focus was on the PDP with the Wike and his G-5 versus Atiku the presidential candidate whereas the real power game was always between the APC candidate and its allies on the one hand versus the cabal (or elements within the presidency) on the hand.