Pakistan In Crisis – Analysis of a Self-Imposed, Chronic Pathology

March 27, 2023
Vicar Sayeedi

Pakistan is in crisis. The evidence is quite simply undeniable. Perhaps unlike any previous time in its history, this nation of 240M diverse people disbursed over a land mass approaching 800,000 square kilometers is now facing existential challenges that are economic, financial and humanitarian in character. But the problems of Pakistan are usually viewed by most observers and partisans through a frightening and emotionally charged political lens rather than through a rational, scientific and technocratic lens. Perhaps in the interest of Pakistan and its long-suffering citizenry, it’s now time for another approach: a time for a less divisive and a more pragmatic analysis of Pakistan’s self-imposed, chronic pathology.

Let’s begin by considering Pakistan’s fiscal dilemma. It has been nearly eight decades since the birth of this nation, a partition event following India’s independence from British Colonial rule in 1947. During these eight decades, successive governments – including those of the recent past – have failed to raise the rate of fiscal capture on the overall economy beyond 5%. Fiscal capture is the percent of GDP that is subjected to taxation on a consistent and formal basis. In 2022, Pakistan’s GDP was ~$350B. This means that fiscal capture yielded only ~$18B of taxable income for the State.

Since its birth, the Pakistani State has petitioned the IMF for loans on 22 separate occasions: on average, approximately once every three to five years. The current government is now engaged in its 23rd such petition. During its young life, the Pakistani State has separately petitioned the Chinese State, the Pakistani Diaspora as well as the Saudi State for loans, as well. As a result, Pakistan currently has an annual debt service burden to bilateral and multilateral lenders of ~$30B per year for the next five years whilst simultaneously having only $3B-5B in foreign exchange reserves [at the end of 2022].

A second crucial deficiency we must consider is Pakistan’s national institutional matrix, the network of public and private sector institutions that are the hallmark and crown jewels of any developed nation. Unsurprisingly, throughout its history, Pakistan has been unable to raise such a robust national institutional network. But high quality, high functioning, transparent institutional ecosystems are essential for the formation of an advanced, peaceful and prosperous nation. Thus, such an ecosystem is absolutely critical for any state which aspires to develop high value-added goods and services for export.

High value-added exports are normally the only way for a nation to raise the standard of living of its people to the level typical of a developed nation [exceptionally, some states may have natural resources so an economy based on extraction of industrial commodities required in large quantity by developed and developing nations alike can be used to mask the lack of a high-quality institutional ecosystem. The Gulf Arab States and the Russian Federation are prominent examples. But any nation which ignores the significance of robust institutional ecosystems to their success in the modern world often finds itself with many other problems including a bloated State and high unemployment.]

In a world on the cusp of the 4th Industrial Revolution where Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology, Computing [Quantum & Super], Data Science, Gene & Germ Line Editing [and their potential to override the human evolutionary process with Intelligent Design] and Genomics, those nations without advanced, thoughtfully developed institutional ecosystems – and therefore the ability to meaningfully engage in global trade with offers of high value-added goods and services – will find the standard of living of their societies declining precipitously. [See figure 1].

Figure 1

Both technical issues discussed above – the lack of institutional ecosystems and the exceedingly low rates of fiscal capture [vis a vis the nation’s GDP] – share a common chronic pathology: it is the destructive and ill-considered narrative, the very story that the people of Pakistan – and most other perennially developing nations – subscribe to. It is the story they live by, and which is deeply embedded in their culture. These stories are very difficult to change. Thus, to work to overcome this dilemma by developing and socializing a unifying story is the true measure of leadership for any head of state and the leaders of a society. This, of course, includes Pakistan.

Unfortunately, unless a nation carefully designs a story that addresses the needs of the individual [from Socratic-Platonic thought, we have Thumos or human agency] whilst also finding a way to manage the diversity inherent within their societies [culture, ethnicity, linguistic tradition, province, race, religion, sect, tribe, etc.] the probability is exceedingly high that the national story embedded in the culture will be divisive. If societies live by such divisive stories, it is virtually impossible for the two chronic pathologies discussed above to be overcome. They have precluded their ability to build national institutional networks and to increase their rate of fiscal capture. [See figure 2]

Figure 2

If the people within a society do not have a shared unifying story, they will suffer from endemic division and intolerance of the diversity they encounter on a regular basis. Such pervasive and ubiquitous intolerance will lead to distrust and this distrust then precludes their ability to work together. But the ability to work together is our superpower. We have evidence of this going back 70,000 years in humankind’s existence to the Cognitive Revolution. It is how we have been able to achieve the extraordinary things such as the Apollo moon landing on July 20, 1969, or the building of the pyramids at Giza in 2,500 BCE. The Apollo moon landing required the cooperation of 400,000 people employed by 20,000 American corporations and institutions. They needed to work together flexibly in perhaps the most complex, nuanced and sophisticated way and at a scale not seen before in human history. A unifying story was critical to have so many people across so many organizations cooperate so effectively and successfully.

Without these sophisticated networks of cooperation, it is impossible to raise and develop institutions. Furthermore, a developed nation will require an array of such public and private sector institutions targeting a spectrum of disciplines [academic, medical, scientific, technological, industrial, civil society, non-governmental, professional, etc.] It is then the communications, data flow and know-how across this institutional public-private sector matrix [Figure 1] which provides the capacity and potential for the development of and trade in high value-added goods and services in a global economy.

Additionally, if a society does not share a unifying narrative, they have no incentive to submit to taxation. The people will complain that they don’t want their taxes to go to people outside of their group. The in-group won’t want outsiders whom they dislike receiving their taxes and thus improving their living conditions at the in-group’s expense. Thus, the fiscal capture issue will remain endemic – as it has in Pakistan for the past eight decades – thus starving the State of the resources required to engage in institution building and virtually every other function of State.

In conclusion, we can see from this analysis that the current debate in Pakistan between those supporting the recent Prime Minister versus those opposed to him are really quite irrelevant to the future of this wonderful nation. Neither he nor the present Prime Minister nor any leader over the past eight decades has been able to unify the people by reshaping the narrative in a manner that finally resolves the multitude of fissures within society [the essential pathology ailing the nation], thus addressing the two critical dilemmas, as outlined in this essay.








Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Bell Labs Alumnus, a Lecturer and a Consultant. He is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.

Vicar has lectured widely about Artificial Intelligence and its implications for society. He has recently lectured in New York at the National Hemophilia Foundation about AI & the Life Sciences. He has also lectured in London in the Royal Boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, in Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley, the National Library of Singapore as well as in Düsseldorf [with invitations extended to Amsterdam, Berlin, Cologne, Rome, Stockholm & Vienna] on AI and its implications for individuals and societies. Vicar has lectured at leading companies, as well.

Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. For geopolitical technologists, the symbiosis at this intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.

Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children.


You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7

The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:

Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?

Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
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Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism

Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!

Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens

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Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI

Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!

Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius

Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple

Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
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Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
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Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
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