This was to be the Chinese Century | What Happened?

This was to be the Chinese Century | What Happened?
August 9, 2023
Vicar Sayeedi

With the death in 1976 of the founder of the Chinese Communist Party, Chairman Mao Zedong, The People’s Republic of China was finally able to turn a new page. The People’s Republic emerged following the defeat of General Chiang Kai-shek by Chairman Mao and his forces in the civil war which ended in 1949. Chiang Kai-shek and his fellow nationalists retreated to Taiwan whilst the communists and Mao seized the Chinese mainland.

Chairman Mao’s era was marked by several catastrophic episodes, most notably The Great Leap Forward [1958-1961] and The Cultural Revolution [1966-1976]. Each of these gruesome periods resulted in the loss of life for tens of millions of Chinese peasants, perhaps as many as 80 million in total. But beginning in 1978, under the reformist leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China finally began to find its way as it gradually opened and engaged with the West.

Despite the very high likelihood that China’s best and brightest minds would never return home if sent to the West for higher education – Deng Xiaoping was warned that 90% could not be expected to return – he sent them anyway. Deng believed that if even 10% of these highly trained bureaucrats, business leaders, engineers, scientists and technocrats returned, China would still benefit from having sent the students. Deng’s reformist mindset and gradual liberalization of economic policy and markets took hold in the Party and social culture and were carried forward by subsequent Party leaders, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

During this ~35-year period, China’s global, mass-manufacturing-centric economy grew in unprecedented fashion. In 1991 – following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union – China accounted for ~1% of global GDP, but by the time Xi Jinping took office in late 2012, China accounted for ~15% of global GDP. It was a remarkable transition that led many to believe that China would take over as the world’s leading economy by 2030 – they felt confident this era of history would be remembered by historians as the Chinese Century.

But as is often the case with such euphoric projections, things have not gone quite as expected. Today, the unemployment rate amongst university-trained workers exceeds 20%. The Chinese banking sector is heavily indebted, municipal governments across China are confronting bankruptcy and the national real estate sector is in terrible condition. Following State intervention in the economy and markets, Chinese society has sharply curtailed investing or spending and has instead dramatically increased its rate of savings. State intervention has led to widespread distrust in the economy and markets by ordinary Chinese citizens and unfortunately once trust in government has been violated it is exceedingly difficult to restore.

Meanwhile China’s demographics are also flashing red warning signs – Sino population is simultaneously aging and contracting. The expectation is that the population will decline from its current level of ~1.4B to less than ~700M by the turn of the next century. Both exports and imports have declined precipitously, GDP growth has slowed dramatically and meanwhile China’s international reputation has been badly damaged by an overwhelming level of negative publicity emanating from its highly aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy. Consequently, the tourists have stopped coming. Commercially, multinationals have begun to look for alternative sites for low-cost, offshore production whilst also searching for re-shoring sites to protect their businesses from a repeat of the Chinese supply chain disruptions experienced in recent years.

Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate political power and his change to Communist Party rules – thus allowing him to remain in power for life rather than for the long-established rule of two five-year terms – has raised alarms across Asian and Western capitals alike. Xi’s introduction of Artificial Intelligence-enabled digital, mass surveillance of all Chinese citizens, his regime’s foreign policy which has led to the significant damaging of relations with neighbors and critical economic partners [including America, Australia, the European Union, India, Japan, the Philippines and many others in East Asia] vis a vis China’s “Nine-Dash-Line” territorial claims in the South China Sea, and finally his extraordinary support for Russia in its brutal war on Ukraine has not served China’s objectives or reputation well.

In summary, we are, once again witnessing the weaknesses of Authoritarian regimes. The congenital defects in these systems – most notably, the inability to check power or to prevent the consolidation of power in the hands of a few men – has led to a series of bad decisions that are having a critical and even existential impact on China’s future. The One Child Policy and its precursor policy [Later, Longer, Fewer] – introduced to provide the maximum number of workers in the manufacturing sector which was so central to the Party’s economic policy – has now created a cultural phenomenon in which Chinese couples simply do not want to have more than one child. They feel it’s just too expensive and they’re no longer used to large families.


Will China be able to reverse the damage of the Xi Jinping era or is it simply too late? The jury is still out but consensus amongst political scientists and thought leaders is that it will be extraordinarily difficult to “right the ship”, particularly with a hardline autocrat firmly seated at the helm of the Party alongside a small group of loyalists. The Chinese people are now trapped in a self-destructive neo-Maoist era of the Party’s own making.







Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Bell Labs Alumnus, a Lecturer and a Consultant. He is a highly experienced writer and is the author of several books. Vicar’s most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair. Vicar has written over 140 essays and recorded nearly 100 lectures on Artificial Intelligence. His forthcoming book is titled, “Our World in 2050”. The book examines the three major trends reshaping the world today and how they will change our world in the future: the rise of China and the resulting change to the world order, the ubiquity and pervasiveness of Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change.

Vicar has lectured widely to audiences around the world, stretching from Silicon Valley to Singapore. He has recently lectured in New York at the National Hemophilia Foundation about AI & the Life Sciences. He has also lectured in London in the Royal Boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, in Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley, the National Library of Singapore as well as in Düsseldorf [with invitations extended to Amsterdam, Berlin, Cologne, Rome, Stockholm & Vienna] on AI and its implications for individuals and societies. Vicar has lectured at leading companies, as well. Most recently, Vicar has lectured on ‘AI - Implications for Democracy in an Age of Surging Authoritarianism’ at Elmhurst University and at East West University on ‘AI | Implications for Our Future’.

Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. For geopolitical technologists, the symbiosis at this intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.

Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children.


You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7

The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:

Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?

Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents

Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism

Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!

Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens

Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance

Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI

Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!

Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius

Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple

Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society

Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution

Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy

Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens

Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment

Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair

Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game

Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?

Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West

Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]

Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship

Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology

Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution

Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind

Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team

Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?

Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos

Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State

Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?

Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA

Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?

Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy

Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration

Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?

Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution

Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?

Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?

Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?

Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?

Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?

Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?

Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology

Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China

Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?

Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?

Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?

Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Key Enabler of Universal Basic Income?

Episode 49 - https://youtu.be/sy48Xqo-3qM
AI & The Future of Government, Industry, Markets &Trade

Episode 50 - https://youtu.be/JU1oGzb5TS0
AI & Surveillance | America’s New Strategy in the Middle East

Episode 51 - https://youtu.be/nOCQjUxLWJY
AI-Enabled Global Government | An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

Episode 52 - https://youtu.be/g1VJqiI3HyE
AI & Healthcare | What Will the Future Look Like? Will it be More Equitable?

Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Surveillance | The Ethical Dilemma of Facial Recognition Software

Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Regulation | Europe is Leading the Way

Episode 55 - https://youtu.be/l-gcYTZMsm8
AI & Consciousness | Will Machines Soon be Sentient?

Episode 56 - https://youtu.be/-8BaouCn9cs
AI & Regulation | Europe Announces New Rules

Episode 57 - https://youtu.be/243zm7aHImQ
AI & Human Emotion Recognition | Is it Inherently Flawed?

Episode 58 - https://youtu.be/rdXllGj8rbo
AI & Autonomous Vehicles | Where are We Now?

Episode 59 - https://youtu.be/EMbqpN5mbqw
AI & the 4 Little Trees | More on Emotion Recognition

Episode 60 - https://youtu.be/K5wtkj-VTrk
AI & the Colonial Pipeline Attack | Cyber Threats are Growing Rapidly

Episode 61 - https://youtu.be/03KysO3VJgI
AI & the Coronavirus | A Postmortem

Episode 62 - https://youtu.be/7wmSIWgbuQI
AI on the Battlefield | The Conflict in Gaza

Episode 63 - https://youtu.be/a_1AmLJD3lo
AI and Xenophobia | Will We Finally Break the Cycle?

Episode 64 - https://youtu.be/9s-Go1TYK9c
AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?

Episode 65 - https://youtu.be/1nKbTMzfpqM
Artificial Intelligence | Humankind’s Final and Greatest Invention

Episode 66 - https://youtu.be/cplR62KTa88
America & the 4th Industrial Revolution | Where do We Go from Here?

Episode 67 - https://youtu.be/RMrqreI-PRw
Artificial Intelligence | [Digital] Life After Death

Episode 68 - https://youtu.be/KzR8NkVdT0Q
Artificial Intelligence | The Fear Factor

Episode 69 - https://youtu.be/BI0HqACc4Ek
Artificial Intelligence | The Trust Factor

Episode 70 - https://youtu.be/nKhqVtQC_NI
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for the Future of Democracy

Episode 71 - https://youtu.be/GKD5hXmnpTU
Artificial Intelligence | Deep Fakes & Pornography

Episode 72 - https://youtu.be/KJdoBm5Kmw8
Artificial Intelligence | Working in the 21st Century

Episode 73 - https://youtu.be/lLY6gF_eeas
AI & Disinformation | Implications for Democracy & Geopolitics

Episode 74 - https://youtu.be/URsauWURj5A
AI, Climate Change & Pandemics | A Case for Global Governance?

Episode 75 - https://youtu.be/cu7xOHpNiO4
Artificial Intelligence | New Year’s Resolutions & Societal Reformation

Episode 76 - https://youtu.be/1-orEsKg5fM
Artificial Intelligence | Meritocracy and the Gathering Storm

Episode 77 - https://youtu.be/jYzyrxhxCJk
AI, Authoritarianism & Democracy | What Does the Future Hold?

Episode 78 – https://youtu.be/G5dlaB8TZJQ
AI & Speciation | Symbiosis and the 4th Industrial Revolution

Episode 79 – https://youtu.be/8pq2ZAxRdcY
AI and Disinformation | Echo Chambers in an Age of Division

Episode 80 – https://youtu.be/bewLnveVpDI
AI & Human Conflict | Objectivism, Tribalism & the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Episode 81 – https://youtu.be/Z5ZvMYuNhLQ
AI, Climate Change & Migration | Sowing the Seeds of Intraplanetary Discord

Episode 82 – https://youtu.be/mP-r_0pS3P8
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Where are We Now and What Does the Future Hold?

Episode 83 – https://youtu.be/vYSW-pceOQE
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Is Protein Folding Our Most Important Achievement?

Episode 84 – https://youtu.be/IBgF_oyCvpE
Artificial Intelligence & 21st Century Military Doctrine | Tora! Tora! Tora!

Episode 85 – https://youtu.be/sxGeIZSlYYo
Artificial Intelligence & Healthcare | A Revolution in the Making


Episode 86 – https://youtu.be/gARgH5rlCG8
AI & Thermonuclear Fusion | The Ultimate Solution for Climate Change

Episode 87 – https://youtu.be/baWRuYBKgu4
Putin’s Russia | A State of Humiliation

Episode 88 – https://youtu.be/6TP5AFtg-6g
AI & Genomics | Accelerating Gene Therapies

Episode 89 – https://youtu.be/_vgLJEoQFY4
Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar Worlds | Implications for Humankind

Episode 90 – https://youtu.be/8S7SDcqKNZ0
AI & Neocolonialism | Datocracy & the Surveillance State

Episode 91 – https://youtu.be/RfEIbPNAALo
AI & the Truman Doctrine | The Merits of Preserving the New World Order

Episode 92 – https://youtu.be/q1ybdNC5MiI
The Apollo Moon Landing | Lessons for Civilization in the Age of AI

Episode 93 – https://youtu.be/r1oc9uU8Ct4
Artificial Intelligence & Sapiens 3.0 | Are We Ready?

Episode 94 – https://youtu.be/OqUfXNwqtDU
Artificial Intelligence & Authoritarianism | What’s the Attraction?

Episode 95 – https://youtu.be/-HfFs-XVnKo
Irrationality and Intolerance | Humankind’s Two Greatest Liabilities in the Age of AI

Episode 96 – https://youtu.be/-ITqhjIe4yU
Sustaining Democracy in the Age of AI

Episode 97 –
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for Our Future
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Published on August 09, 2023 14:36
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