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Disaster Deferred: A New View of Earthquake Hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone
In the winter of 1811-12, a series of large earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone-often incorrectly described as the biggest ever to hit the United States-shook the Midwest. Today the federal government ranks the hazard in the Midwest as high as California's and is pressuring communities to undertake expensive preparations for disaster.
Coinciding with the two-hundredth anniversary of the New Madrid earthquakes, Disaster Deferred revisits these earthquakes, the legends that have grown around them, and the predictions of doom that have followed in their wake. Seth Stein clearly explains the techniques seismologists use to study Midwestern quakes and estimate their danger. Detailing how limited scientific knowledge, bureaucratic instincts, and the media's love of a good story have exaggerated these hazards, Stein calmly debunks the hype surrounding such predictions and encourages the formulation of more sensible, less costly policy. Powered by insider knowledge and an engaging style, Disaster Deferred shows how new geological ideas and data, including those from the Global Positioning System, are painting a very different-and much less frightening-picture of the future.
Coinciding with the two-hundredth anniversary of the New Madrid earthquakes, Disaster Deferred revisits these earthquakes, the legends that have grown around them, and the predictions of doom that have followed in their wake. Seth Stein clearly explains the techniques seismologists use to study Midwestern quakes and estimate their danger. Detailing how limited scientific knowledge, bureaucratic instincts, and the media's love of a good story have exaggerated these hazards, Stein calmly debunks the hype surrounding such predictions and encourages the formulation of more sensible, less costly policy. Powered by insider knowledge and an engaging style, Disaster Deferred shows how new geological ideas and data, including those from the Global Positioning System, are painting a very different-and much less frightening-picture of the future.
296 pages, Hardcover
First published September 17, 2010
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
August 24, 2014
The New Madrid fault is popular in current press as a sleeping bomb that will one day, any day now, devastate the entire Midwest. To the extent that the US will no longer be a viable nation.
But is this a reasonable expectation? Probably not, from extensive research. Seth Stein covers the field of earthquake science in laymen's language, includes measured data to the extent that it is available, and explains what this tells us about faults and their activities.
As might be expected, much of the data comes from the San Andreas fault, which has been studied probably the most of any fault on earth, and which has been a fertile object of study toward promoting earthquake analysis methods that can be trusted. Of critical note is the slow motion of the ewarth's surface, in an area near a fault, measured with highly accurate GPS equipment. This tells us little about when an earthquake will occur, but does show that strain is building to some level. The strain energy can be enormous, with relief to eventually occur in the form of an earthquake-induced displacement of the earth along the fault .
Interestingly, the New Madrid area has been measured with these same GPS methods and, so far, has not been doing anything. It is as stable and unchanging as any earth anywhere. From all indications, it is a place that is not likely to be having any huge earthquakes anytime soon. Even though the 1811-1812 events did occur, and there was an earthquake in nearby southern Illinois in 1968 (I felt that one -- I was at the Univ of Illinois and it shook the whole building).
This is not to say that nothing ever can happen at New Madrid -- it may be that some other mechanism is at work, and it is not understood at this period in time. Nobody knows when an earthquake WILL happen; nor when one WON'T. As the science advances, we will gain knowledge and this will be a good thing. Meanwhile, New Madrid does not appear to be in great danger.
A very interesting book written by a highly credible author.
But is this a reasonable expectation? Probably not, from extensive research. Seth Stein covers the field of earthquake science in laymen's language, includes measured data to the extent that it is available, and explains what this tells us about faults and their activities.
As might be expected, much of the data comes from the San Andreas fault, which has been studied probably the most of any fault on earth, and which has been a fertile object of study toward promoting earthquake analysis methods that can be trusted. Of critical note is the slow motion of the ewarth's surface, in an area near a fault, measured with highly accurate GPS equipment. This tells us little about when an earthquake will occur, but does show that strain is building to some level. The strain energy can be enormous, with relief to eventually occur in the form of an earthquake-induced displacement of the earth along the fault .
Interestingly, the New Madrid area has been measured with these same GPS methods and, so far, has not been doing anything. It is as stable and unchanging as any earth anywhere. From all indications, it is a place that is not likely to be having any huge earthquakes anytime soon. Even though the 1811-1812 events did occur, and there was an earthquake in nearby southern Illinois in 1968 (I felt that one -- I was at the Univ of Illinois and it shook the whole building).
This is not to say that nothing ever can happen at New Madrid -- it may be that some other mechanism is at work, and it is not understood at this period in time. Nobody knows when an earthquake WILL happen; nor when one WON'T. As the science advances, we will gain knowledge and this will be a good thing. Meanwhile, New Madrid does not appear to be in great danger.
A very interesting book written by a highly credible author.
February 22, 2011
An excellent expose of the ill-conceived decision by the USGS to increase the estimate of earthquake hazards in the midwest. The New Madrid earthquakes in 1811 and 1812 have been used to exaggerate earthquake hazards by the USGS, yet more recent studies show that the risk is far less than has been estimated or advertised by the USGS. Dr. Seth Stein explains the science behind both earthquakes and risk estimation in down-to-earth terms that even non-geologists can easily understand.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews