“I am a better investor because I am a businessman, and a better businessman because I am an investor.”
The Warren Buffett way by Robert G Hasstrom focuses on investment journey, philosophy and principles of Warren Buffett.
Michal Mausbousinee rightly stated “There is a measure of both luck & skill in business, in sports, in investing. The only way to distinguish whether luck or skill prevails is by examining results over time. Luck may play a role in short run, but time will let us know whether skill was involved”. The exceptional journey and success of Warren Buffett in the field of investing over more than 50 years generating above market return is very much a statement that skill played a big role in his success.
Efficiency to beat the Efficient Market Hypothesis
According to Efficient Market Hypothesis, the combined efforts of millions of intelligent, motivated, objective and informed investors cause information to immediately be reflected in the market price such that assets will provide a risk adjusted fair return, no more and no less. Prices are never low or so high that they can be taken advantage of, and no investor can be capable of consistently identifying opportunities to benefit. One cannot beat the market. And its very much true most investors are unable to beat market.
But it’s also true that market efficiency is not such strong a force that it’s impossible to generate above market return. It is merely asserted that no one does it to a sufficient degree and consistently to disapprove the efficient market hypothesis.
Market frequently misprices stocks, usually because of human emotion of fear and greed. At the height of optimism, greed moves stocks beyond their intrinsic value, creating an overpriced market. At other times, fear moves prices below intrinsic value, creating an undervalued market. But investors like Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Peter Lynch, George Soros are different. Their success shows that exceptional investors can beat the market through skill, not chance.
Ben Graham, Philip Fisher and Charlie Munger greatly influenced & nurtured Warren Buffett’s principles of investment.
Analytical, Unemotional and Contrarian
Warren Buffett is fiercely focused, analytical, unemotional and contrarian investor. He does not need to know and consider every data point, he only focuses on the things that he needs to know about the business. He does not need a cadre of analysts pushing numbers.
“Be earful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
“Buy great business when they are having a temporary problem or when the stock market declines and create bargain price for outstanding franchises”
The principles or foundations of Warren Buffett investment are;
• Viewing Stocks as a piece of business. It completely changes the approach to understand the field of investing.
• Focused low turnover portfolio is key to wealth creation over a long period.
• Invest only in Circle of competence i.e. business that you can understand and analyze
• Margin of safety in terms of both price and business are very important.
• Invest in high quality companies with competitive advantage & pricing power.
Annual Letters as Chairman of Berkshire Hathway
Warren Buffett uses his Berkshire Hathway Annual Report to give overview of his investments and principles behind it to his shareholders. In addition to his own shareholders, these letters offer great educational value to understand the field of investing to the general public to become better investors.
Quantitative & Qualitative judgement of the business
Quantitative judgement of the business and qualitative judgement of the management is crucial to understand any business. Numbers, ratios, formulas are important but it’s not everything to understand business. Understanding of the products and services of the company that ultimately generate those numbers, the people managing the company & their decision making is crucial. The credibility, integrity and quality of the management is extremely important for long term success of any business.
Economics of the business
Overall economics of the business plays a very important role in the success of any business. The importance of sound economics of business is very much evident by the statement of Warren Buffett as;
“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that stays intact. “
Long term approach towards business
Buffet looks for companies with long term favorable prospects, that are operated by honest and competent people, and are available at attractive prices. If people are drawn to an investment because of superficial notions rather than business fundamentals, they are more likely to be scared away at the first sign of the trouble and, in all likelihood, will lose money in the process.
“The speed at which a business’s success is recognized, is not that important as long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage. It may give you a chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price.”
Allocation of Company’s Capital
The most important management act is the allocation of the company’s capital. It is the most important because allocation of capital, over time, determines shareholders value creation. Retaining earnings in order to reinvest in the company at less than the average cost of capital is completely irrational. It erodes shareholders value over long term.
Honesty & Integrity of Management
Buffett holds in high regards managers who report their company’s financial performance fully and genuinely, who admits mistakes and share success honestly.
Low Portfolio turnout
It’s important to keep portfolio turnout ratio low. When a stock appreciates in price but is not sold, the increase in value is an unrealized gain. No capital gain tax is owed until the stock is sold. If you leave the gain in place, the money compounds more forcefully. Buffett rightly called this unrealized gain as interest free loan from the treasurer.
Reading & Understanding Business Reports
Reading & understanding annual reports, balance sheet, Profit & Loss statement of the business are far more valuable than reading analysts’ reports or trying to understand fluctuations in the share price.
Psychology & Investment
Psychologist have divided our cognition system as System 1 & System 2 thinking. System 1 thinking involves intuition and quick response, whereas System 2 thinking involves reflection and analysis. System 1 thinking where simple and straightforward ideas travel quickly, whereas System 2 thinking means conscious effort to understand and reflect, it is slow in nature. The slow moving ideas that require reflection and judgement are part of System 2 thinking.
Using System 1 thinking, the investor would tabulate a company’s price to earnings ratio, book value, and divided yield. Seeing that the ratios are trading near historical lows and the company has raised the dividend every year for the past years, the investor might quickly conclude that the stock is a good value.
Too many investors rely almost exclusively on System 1 thinking to make a decision, rather than engaging in System 2 thinking of understanding and analyzing the company by reading company’s annual report, annual report of competitors, understanding the economics of the business. But it’s much more laborious and requires some mental effort rather than simply figuring out current price to earnings ratio of the business.
Both System 1 thinking and System 2 thinking are important, the application of the two way of thinking described by Daniel Kanheman as thinking slow and fast depends on the context and scenario. Stock Market is a complex field; it requires System 2 thinking approach. The cases where available response time is low, System 1 thinking may be much more important i.e. sports, driving etc.