Il miracolo ASEAN. Un catalizzatore per la pace

by Kishore Mahbubani

L'ASEAN rappresenta una silenziosa storia di successo. Lontano da clamori mediatici, estranea a posizioni estreme, imperniata sull'efficienza, l'Associazione delle Nazioni del sud-est asiatico ha costruito un modello di convivenza civile, rispetto delle diversità, ricerca di gradualità ambiziosa. In una regione tormentata dai conflitti e a cinquanta anni dalla sua fondazione, ha raggiunto i suoi obiettivi pace, crescita, stabilità, sicurezza. I dieci paesi che ne fanno parte hanno tutti garantito ai loro cittadini progressi innegabili e la speranza di un futuro migliore. La fine della Guerra Fredda ha consentito una impostazione non più ideologica ma pragmatica dell'Associazione. Da più di vent'anni i paesi originariamente avversi ne fanno parte in un clima di collaborazione e tolleranza. Ne hanno goduto i suoi 650 milioni di cittadini e l'intera costa asiatica del Pacifico, attraversata altrove da tensioni e conflitti. La costanza, i risultati, la lontananza da tragici episodi di cronaca hanno affermato un "modello ASEAN". Quando i traguardi economici si sono estesi al versante socio-politico, l'ASEAN è diventata un "miracolo". Il libro dimostra come la trasformazione sia avvenuta non per intervento divino, ma per l'impiego dei cittadini, la competenza delle classi dirigenti, la lungimiranza dei leader. Le difficoltà iniziali sono state fortissime, le tensioni spesso irrisolte, le disparità ancora eclatanti. Il rischio di divisioni e di lasciarsi influenzare dalle grandi potenze che circondano l'ASEAN è tuttora il pericolo maggiore per l'Associazione. Tuttavia, il clima di crescita e di rispetto tra paesi di lingue, culture e religioni diverse resiste e si amplia. Dal sud-est asiatico deriva quindi uno scenario solido e promettente, esempio di "fusione di civiltà", invece che di scontro. Ne sono consapevoli gli autori che si spingono orgogliosamente a candidare l'intero Miracolo ASEAN al Premio Nobel per la Pace. Prefazione di Enrico Letta.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Asia, China, International Relations, International Affairs, Political Science

Paperback

First published July 15, 2017

About the author

Kishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean academic and former diplomat. He is currently Professor in the Practice of Public Policy at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

From 1971 to 2004 he served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United Nations. In that role, he served as President of the United Nations Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.

On 6 November 2017, Mahbubani announced that he would retire from the position as Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at the end of 2017.

Reviews

[Andrew Njoo · Rating 4 out of 5]

This review is structured as follows: Facts, Key Takeaways, Pen Sketches, SWOT, Review Conclusion.

Facts: ASEAN covers 4.4 million square km, combined population of 625 million people ~9% of world’s population. Combined nominal GDP of US $2.8 trillion, ranking as the sixth largest economy behind USA, China, Japan, India and Germany. ASEAN shares land borders with India, China, Bangladesh, East Timor, and Papua New Guinea, and maritime borders with India, China, Palau, and Australia.
Key takeaways:
· 4 waves of cultural influence: Indian, Chinese, Muslim & Western have shaped culture and societies of countries in ASEAN.

· ASEAN miracle is improbable but in the end is better than having no ASEAN; clue to ASEAN miracle lies in ‘regional resilience’.

· There is a lot of optimism and room for growth in ASEAN. It is one of the most peaceful regions in the world.

· The West has a lot to learn from ASEAN but can be too proud and arrogant, especially the Anglo-Saxon media.

Pen sketches:
Brunei
Cambodia, Laos – fortunate that French allowed them to exist as separate countries from Thailand.

Indonesia – fortunate leaders in Sukarno (national basis of country, Pancasila), Suharto (economic growth) & SBY (allowed for democratic reform to set in). Wise to take a backseat and not dominate the ASEAN council, allowing other members a greater say.

Malaysia – enigma; on the one hand industrialized quickly but faces many structural challenges with brain-drain.

Myanmar – protected from Indian & Chinese spheres of influence by being inside ASEAN.
Philippines – most Latinized of ASEAN countries after enduring 330 years of Western colonial rule 1565 to 1898 (Spanish rule), followed by almost 50 years from 1898 to 1946 (America). Becoming a center for software development; Duterte can become one of ASEAN’s most effective leaders.

Singapore – success due to extraordinary leadership under LKY. Plays a valuable role for ASEAN as an intellectual hub.

Thailand – government under civil strife between Yellow Shirts (Bangkok) and Thaksin’s Red Shirts (country people). Unique as only Asian country not to have been colonized by Europeans, has a rich culture, and uniquely placed to understand India & China, as Thai culture draws from both.

Vietnam – only SE-Asian country to have Chinese culture deep in its roots. ‘Hardest’ country in SE-Asia, having fought a war with the United States. At first condemned the formation of ASEAN as ‘lackeys of US imperialism’, but eventually joined in 1995. In all likelihood will emerge as significant economic power like South Korea today.

Strengths
· peace (absence of war), golf is quite popular with ASEAN leaders as a bonding activity, institutions seem to reinforce invisible sense of community.

· Great powers have vested interest in keeping ASEAN going including USA, Japan, China, India. One of the miracles of ASEAN is that it has prevented significant great-power conflict even though there are enormous shifts of power in the region (US, China, India).

and Weaknesses
· no natural custodian, who owns ASEAN? Indonesia is logical choice; if not, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand due to geographical centrality in the region.

· Absence of strong institutions – no enforcement of decisions, no monitoring of compliance & no sanctions.

· Citizens do not feel a deep sense of ownership of ASEAN – one of the goals of the book is to encourage greater sense of ownership of living & breathing political miracle that ASEAN has become.

Threats
· geopolitical rivalries regarding South China Sea, and from great powers (India, China, US, Japan)- great powers do not always make wise decisions.

· ASEAN leaders too focused on domestic challenges rather than regional concerns. This issue is aggravated by weak political institutions.

Opportunities:
· Develop a buffer with New Zealand & Australia & enhance resilience by deepening relationships with great powers, declining and emerging.

The book ends with the proposition that ASEAN should be awarded Nobel Peace prize – for being a multi-diverse region with a long history of peace.

Review conclusion: Overall it is a decent book explaining the merits & areas of improvement for an important region of the world, with 600 million inhabitants and at the pivot between many great powers: India, China, Japan, US and even the EU.

ASEAN is a unique region as it has undergone 4 waves of culture from the East & West, and emerged with its own diverse sense of culture & ownership, which enhanced their nations as opposed to causing conflict as observed in e.g. EU with non-integration of Muslim & EU cultures in some cases.

Some strengths of ASEAN are that it has a long history of peace, although it suffers from an absence of strong institutions. There are many opportunities available to ASEAN such as enhancing relationships with Australia & New Zealand, although it should be careful of possible flashpoint areas such as the South China Sea and being used by great powers (e.g. India, China attempting to gain influence in Myanmar), although this interest can be used for advantage for e.g. foreign direct investment.

ASEAN miracle is a living miracle and hopefully there will be many more years of story-telling in this region especially as hundreds of millions of ASEAN citizens move up into the middle class and start to enjoy modern amenities & consumption such as apartments, (electric?) vehicles, appliances, electronics, and many services such as banking, tourism etc.

[Rebecca · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 stars. Quite unlike lohps teachings so it’s a fresh perspective. Apart from that it’s still pretty interesting. Argues that ASEAN is the single organisation/person/entity most deserving of a Nobel peace prize which is quite funny and a bit strange but I suppose the argument is somewhat warranted. Reuses a lot of evidence which is a bit annoying.

[Wei Ming · Rating 3 out of 5]

It seems that Kishore lent his name recognition and jeffery lent his time and effort. Still, this book provides a thorough and pragmatic perspective on ASEAN, even if overtly biased towards ASEAN in a sometimes unconvincing way.

[feifei · Rating 2 out of 5]

Unsure how to feel about this. Occasionally self-aggrandising, frequently repetitive, and generally seems lost in terms of who, really, is this book for? Why put forth notions like "ASEAN is more deserving of the nobel peace prize than any other institution," or "ASEAN is the balkans of Asia," or "major powers must support ASEAN because they have so much to gain from cultivating goodwill," etc. without ever really explaining the most tenuous arguments? As a result this book ended up with a whole lot of shallow analysis that sounds like it could have come straight out of an i&a essay. Case in point: "Dr. Goh Keng Swee succeeded as the architect of the Singapore miracle because he had studied the Meiji Restoration intensively... In short, Singapore's success was also a result of brilliant team work"—don't get me wrong I love and respect GKS very much but I'm going to need a lot more convincing that learning about the Meiji Restoration is the secret ingredient to engineering an economic miracle. Consider also: "Since most citizens feel a surge of national pride when they visit their embassies, they will associate this pride with both their country and ASEAN [if all ASEAN embassies fly both the national and the ASEAN flag]"—it's not that this is impossible but this causation seems to have been established with too little effort...

I'd only read this for the SEAHist speedrun that it offers in Chap 2 ASEAN Ecosystem of Peace, Chap 3 ASEAN and the Great Powers, and Chap 4 Pen Sketches.

read intermittently throughout summer school, finally finished it on national day lol

[Jeremy Ngadiman3 · Rating 5 out of 5]

"The ASEAN Miracle," written near ASEAN's 50th anniversary, argues that the regional organization was an unexpected but important catalyst for peace in Southeast Asia. Excluding the intro and conclusion, it contains six chapters that (1) explains the broad historical context behind ASEAN's cultural diversity, (2) revisits the history of how ASEAN emerged and performed despite geopolitical tensions in the region, and (3) explores the relationship ASEAN currently has between great and middle powers, (4) the current situation of each of the ASEAN member states, (5) the current situation of ASEAN as an organization, and (6) the future prospects of ASEAN. The introduction and conclusion neatly summarizes the contents of the six chapters and connects them to the book's main thesis of ASEAN's significance.

I have three points to say about the book.

One, the book was an enjoyable read. The language and narration was clear and simple. Humour and anecdotes are occasionally interspersed here and there, especially in chapter 2 where the authors were real-life witnesses of. Readers uninterested in ASEAN may be pleasantly surprised to find that the book covers much broader scope, covering Southeast Asia's history, international relations, and current situation (as of 2017). Indeed, even other countries, like China, Japan, India, and the US to name a few, are included in the book's discussion. In short, "The ASEAN Miracle" is a good introduction not just of ASEAN but also of Southeast Asia's foreign affairs and perspectives in general.

Two, the book's argument is very relevant. Many people in ASEAN, especially those born in the 2000s onwards, take peace in the region for granted, but the reality was that Southeast Asia with its ethnic diversity, cultural diversity, religious diversity, linguistic diversity, governmental diversity (military junta, communists, democracy, monarchy) and location between multiple great powers made it vulnerable to regional and international conflict. The fact that Indonesians can consider Singapore and Malaysia today as "annoying but lovable" neighbours (the two probably think the same haha) stood in stark contrast to when the three were embroiled in an unofficial war just several decades ago, and don't get me started on the Vietnam War, Khmer rouge incident, and the general Cold War atmosphere of the mid-20th century. The existence of ASEAN, the region's peace, and the general fondness the member states and its people view each other with should not be taken for granted but appreciated, maintained, and consolidated in order for the region's peace and development to continue.

Three, the book celebrated too early. Perhaps due to the anniversary's celebratory occasion, the authors claimed that ASEAN's case study could offer a new model for the world's international order, a significant step from merely arguing for ASEAN's significance. They made good arguments to support their claim. ASEAN and Southeast Asia defied the odds to become an unlikely success story politically and economically, but people seem to have ignored them (publishers in the West told the authors no one is interested in Southeast Asia). The West, especially the US, behaved arrogantly after the Cold War in their diplomacy and foreign relations, including in Southeast Asia. Moreover, the emergence of new powers like China and India is breeding geopolitical and economic tensions which stood in stark contrast to how ASEAN in all its diversity, neutrality, and non-interfering principles seems to be functioning well.

Unfortunately, their arguments would hold less water in 2022. Vietnam has indeed moved from an enemy of ASEAN to an active member of ASEAN thanks to member states' approach of international denouncement without military/direct interference in Vietnam. The case for Myanmar, however, is a real counter-argument. The authors argued that, compared to the West's demanding behaviour, ASEAN's light-handed approach was responsible for Myanmar's democratic transition, integration into ASEAN, the international order, the global market. Today, however, Myanmar experienced a military coup, is embroiled in internal conflict, and is no longer sending representatives to ASEAN meetings. In a similar way, the authors argued that Indonesia and Malaysia are an example for Muslim-majority nations to follow and a counter-argument for critics who think that Muslims cannot achieve peace, development, and/or democracy. While the message that prosperity is possible for Muslim-majority nations is surely true, Indonesia and Malaysia are not exactly doing well currently due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Indonesia, in particular, is struggling with leadership succession and democratic uncertainty or even decline depending on who you ask, so the authors' claims would seem to be too optimistic given today's situation.

Overall, the book is good, informative, and a pleasant introduction to Southeast Asian affairs. The book has also argued for the significance of ASEAN in the region well. However, even if the authors were compensating for ASEAN's lack of acknowledgement, the book was overly enthusiastic in its arguments that ASEAN is a success story for the world to imitate, especially given the region's present circumstances in 2022. ASEAN's case study and its unique commitment to non-interference and respect for the sovereignty of nations (democracy or not) should be considered in current discourse about the emerging bipolar/multipolar international order, but it should not make the same mistake of appearing as arrogant as the Western countries it had criticized, especially if they want Western audiences to see the sincerity behind the book's message.

[Aniela Smoczyńska · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nawet ciekawa. To rzeczywiście niewiarygodne, że ASEAN działa.

[jack · Rating 4 out of 5]

A detailed disclosure of the history of Southeast Asia and ASEAN.

[I-Chen Tsai · Rating 5 out of 5]

書本內容相當有結構，從地區歷史開始，到東協成立與演變，接著論述與世界大國關係，然後分述東協十國概況，最後分析優勢、劣勢、機會與威脅。非常完整清楚。

不要期待像是記者所寫的報導那般尖銳，這畢竟是外交家寫的，不太得罪人。但整體來說，我認為比《與中國打交道》誠懇許多。

從他們精準的措辭，你可以感覺到，東協對美國比較不信任，認為美國沒有把東南亞放在優先順位上，暫時選擇稍微傾向中國些。但他們很巧妙的維持平衡，畢竟如果都靠中國，越南與菲律賓會不爽，且南海議題也不能老被欺負。策略上來說，比較像是「以稍微靠中國一點做為籌碼，以免美國真忘了我們。」

中國與美國當然也有各自的代理人，中國對柬埔寨好，美國對菲律賓好，但東協內部也有共識，不能被大國離間。保有一個完整的東協，對小國才好。

另外，作者對澳洲頗為不滿，認為澳洲一直在破壞東協，這樣是很不智的，作者認為，穩定的東協，才能保障澳洲的安全，你們別傻傻的。

https://i-chentsai.innovarad.tw/2017/...

[Hafizha Dwi Ulfa · Rating 4 out of 5]

ASEAN has a peace power, although that just for optimistic thinking. But, ASEAN members have a high responsibility and commitment to keep this region sustainability.

That miracles coming from that believeness which puts in the confidence building measures principle. We will see what the miracles come using our mind to think differently.

[JH · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great discussion of South East Asian history; the cultural influences that shaped each country; the progress of each nation in the 19th/20th centuries; their relationships with China, America, Europe, Oceania, and East Asia; the progress and events that ASEAN was involved in; and how ASEAN compares to the other major regional organisation - the EU.

The book is not biased to any particular ASEAN country, and focuses on the Indian/Hindu, Chinese, Islamic, and European influence on the region. A few conflicts were raised, more prominently regarding Vietnam (Vietnam War, Vietnam-Cambodia, and Vietnam-China conflicts), and how ASEAN decided integrate Vietnam.

There are a lot of history, events, and policies mentioned in the book that are rarely discussed in media or in pre-university textbooks, so it has been quite an eye-opening read. ASEAN indeed has done a fair bit of moderation in geopolitical tension in SEA, as the trade and foreign affairs ministers consciously try to make decisions to protect the peace of the region. It certainly lacks power, but plays the role of a platform for civil discussion, and as a show of solidarity against foreign powers who would play nations against each other for their own short-term benefits.

For anyone who enjoys reading about history and politics, I would recommend taking a look at South East Asian history and ASEAN, instead of always gazing over at Europe, East Asia, or America.

[Lin Jinjia · Rating 5 out of 5]

Good and simple-enough read for someone not versed in international relations/politics. Admittedly, I have never been interested in politics, but this book is a good introduction for those who want to find a book that would suit the layman, but still give adequate information and detail. The authors reiterate certain points to drill in you certain ideas that are constant themes throughout the book, which I find helpful because it actually boosts understanding for someone who rarely reads in this field.

Also a great introduction to ASEAN, an organisation where not many people know well enough about. As a ASEAN-er myself, I feel more proud of my own identity as a citizen of ASEAN, and is also now more confident of being able to talk about ASEAN with peers.

Can't wait for my next read on the same topic again!

[Nicky Lim · Rating 5 out of 5]

Really well written. Book is laid out clearly and claims are backed with good evidence. Initial impressions were a one-sided account of ASEAN (as the title seems so) but the authors surfaced good criticism to the ASEAN model as well.

Reading the book will enlighten you on what it means to be a southeast Asian and he concept of a 'regional' citizen. Especially as a Singaporean who constantly views his world to be small, the prospects of greater regional cooperation reveals a new set of possibilities and identities.

A great book for non-SEA citizens to read as it offers a fresh and differing story of civilizations where western civilizations are more talked and discussed about today

[Matias Singers · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book will provide you with a detailed background on the history of Southeast Asia and the formation of ASEAN. It covers all the bases on how ASEAN was formed, challenges facing it, and the prospects in a new multipolar world with great-power competition.

I wish there had been a few more personal anecdotes and "behind-the-scenes" discussions, but I highly recommend picking up S. Jayakumar's Diplomacy: A Singapore Experience to cover those aspects.

[Nan Hao · Rating 4 out of 5]

Such a shame that I've got this book for long, but just finished it.
Though I can see several repetitive pieces that appear in Kishore's other books I have read, it's still counted as a collection of comprehensive insights about ASEAN ranging from ASEAN's history, development, individual member countries' sketches to analyse on its strength, weakness, opportunities and threats. And indeed, it really deepens my understanding on ASEAN.

[Phipppe LE · Rating 4 out of 5]

Cuốn sách bổ ích dành cho những ai đã và đang nghiên cứu về ASEAN nói riêng và nghành quan hệ quốc tế nói chung. Đông Nam Á hòa bình và thịnh vượng có một phần từ những tác động tích cực từ ASEAN, mặc dù còn những thiếu sót song nếu không có ASEAN, Đông Nam Á sẽ trở thành một khu vực đầy mâu thuẫn và chia rẽ. Trong sự phát triển của ASEAN không thể thiếu vai trò của các nhà lãnh đạo có tầm nhìn và tâm huyết, Lý Hiển Long, Suharto... là những người như vậy...

[Carman Chew · Rating 4 out of 5]

I think the book gives a clear overview of ASEAN, outlining the strengths and weaknesses, origins, potential connections with larger geopolitical powers. Having personally participated in the organisation, Kishore definitely provides some insights as well as humorous anecdotes, but at the same time, his position also limits him to some extent, forcing him to take a largely optimistic view.

[Felicia · Rating 3 out of 5]

An insightful read - a little bit like reading a cheerleader’s account of her team given how much the book trumpets the merits of ASEAN. That said, I fully agree that ASEAN has been underrated and not been given due credit for what it has achieved. The book is very accessible and a good starting point for a primer into the beginnings of ASEAN and the countries that form it.

[Kai-Ching Tay · Rating 3 out of 5]

The book provides history and background of how ASEAN came about in the 2nd half of the 20th century, which was insightful as this was rarely discussed in Singapore's education system. As for how ASEAN is a catalyst of peace, the authors explains it from their view of things, which at times appears bias.

[Anthony Nelson · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very worthy read, and especially valuable for any U.S. foreign policy practioners who want a perspective on how U.S. words and actions are viewed outside of our bubble. I don't necessarily agree with every conclusion, but the arguments are valuable.

[Mamannan · Rating 3 out of 5]

It’s a good read for people who wants to get a basic knowledge about ASEAN. It’s more like a Propaganda book on ASEAN, written in a simple and enthusiastic words. It gives a basic idea about each of the ASEAN nations. Good read for beginners.

[Ana · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book is so painfully difficult to get through. I barely did. Written in an extremely self-congratulatory tone, historical facts are GENEROUSLY peppered with bold, unsubstantiated claims that are largely unnecessary.

[Quỳnh Nguyễn · Rating 4 out of 5]

An easy reading for beginners of ASEAN. This book give an overview about each country in term of history and current situation. It also indicates challenges and opportunities for this region in the future. In a nutshell, this book helped me alot for my book discussion on the theme of ASEAN.

[Helen · Rating 3 out of 5]

Dengan nuansa yang sangat positif(kadang terasa 'over optimistic'), sangat membantu untuk lebih mengerti sejarah dan peran ASEAN di dunia.

Konten: 4 bintang.
Minus 1 bintang karena terjemahan yang kurang enak dibaca di banyak tempat.
Bakal beli edisi bahasa Inggrisnya.

[Iván · Rating 4 out of 5]

Un libro muy interesanre sobre los países del Sudeste Asiático

[Hikari Syuu · Rating 4 out of 5]

Informative although some part seems exaggerate and questionable. Overall, a fun non-fiction genre to read which mainly discover on ASEAN in general view.

[Mariah · Rating 4 out of 5]

⭐️ 4.75

[Razmah]

Best

[Mohit · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a very basic and important book to understand the 10 countries of ASEAN. It opens one's eyes to the Eastern world, its growth and future possibilities. A great read, but a lot of factors have changed after the book was written, in the favour of ASEAN especially with new RCEP and chinese factor.

[Anggun Huang · Rating 5 out of 5]

A well-written book and very easy to read for professionals even to anyone who just started to have an interest into Politics or for students who's going to do their research related to ASEAN since there are many facts and famous scholar's discussion in this book. The author is able to combine both realist and liberalist perspective into a simpler wording in this book.

[yuyin · Rating 3 out of 5]

don't think i've ever rated non-fiction above 2 stars so i must think this is pretty good. i found the answer to my last status update- basically inequitable payment to the ASEAN secretariat according to capacity principle (pay what u can) is impt cos now (on the equity principle) it's underfunded. with additional resources (ahem singapore) not just financial but also academia/experience sharing, they can really start to get the ball rollin', the party hoppin' etc. being the first review on goodreads is really stressing me out

i like this book first n foremost cos it's impt for me to know more abt ASEAN for WORK - so it makes me feel good that i'm actively pursuing knowledge on this front, like a pretentious sort of smart; second cos i love the historical aspects of it, LOVE esp 1930s onwards but the cultural/religion spread -indian wave, chinese wave was interesting too; third i like the gossipy trash mag kind of who said what during when and where kind of insider info that the author was privy to either due to his years serving the association or his conversations with contacts who did...; fourth author repeats himself so the ideas kind of drill themselves into your head like some kind of psychological conditioning or maybe that's the point of argumentative essays- point 4B author also tends to write resolutely in an effusive sort of way (not off-putting per se but tending to generate dismissal from me, a skeptic); fifth - was there a point to 4? right, that i LIKED the repetitive plot points cos they are very useful for me, a distracted reader, but then i got off track talking abt his writing which i am ok but not fanatical about- kind of awed at the condescending tone he takes on sometimes, like is that allowed?- but i suppose fair enough, the economist have been shit talking us for ages so.

i don't think there's a point 5. i did visualise author as a young p*ilippe shah looking kind of dude though idk y maybe cos i saw him at the cna dialogue on wednesday. anyway.

book is a good read for people who don't know much about ASEAN but want to, if you don't know and don't care to then ur probably better off starting with a light(er) weight with less history. oh ok point 5 i liked the relations to the great powers - chapter 3 i think. and chapter 5, the SWOT. those two are the best chapters for me. i also like reading about the histories of some countries (chap 4).

ps if they really succeed in injecting more resources into the secretariat: annual budget of US$220 m and "more than 1,600 employees" (p228) where do i sign up???