The failure of the 1991 Gulf War to take out Saddam Hussein left a small contingent of hawks looking for redress. Most notable among these was then Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz who reported to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney. As a policy of containment took hold, Wolfowitz complained for more action against Saddam but in the Bush 41 administration he did not find a receptive ear from Cheney. Wolfowitz’s disdain for containment may have been due to the loss of most of his Polish extended family in the holocaust. Wolfowitz compared Saddam to Hitler and his security forces to the Gestapo. Another advocate for action was Donald Rumsfeld who along with Wolfowitz, and John Bolton belonged to an advocacy group that issued a letter to President Clinton in 1998 demanding regime change in Iraq. Even though in the 2000 presidential election Bush and Cheney doubled down on a non-interventionist policy, Bush made Donald Rumsfeld Defense Secretary and Wolfowitz Deputy Defense Secretary. Initially, however, Wolfowitz’s only strong interventionist ally in the Bush administration was “Scooter” Libby, Cheney’s chief of staff.
9/11 changed everything. Rumsfeld became disillusioned with the intelligence community and again sided with Wolfowitz. Then the New York Times chimed in with reporting by Pulitzer Prize winning columnist Judith Miller claiming Iraq had a WMD program housed in multiple hidden sites. None of it was true, but it had a big impact. Bush made sure everyone knew that his administration’s attitude had changed in his 2002 state of the union speech when he declared Iraq along with North Korea and Iran to be “an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world…time is not on our side. I will not wait on events while dangers gather.” Cheney reiterated in August 2002 saying “We must take the battle to the enemy.” claiming “There is no doubt” Iraq has WMD.” This would be proven false and to have been based on cherry picked bits of intelligence selected to prove what the hardliners already believed. Cheney radically changed after 9/11, perhaps from fear of a repetition, but also perhaps because he was suffering from serious heart problems. The hardliners reinforced each other and Cheney in particular intimidated the intelligence community. Cheney’s pressure culminated in CIA Director George Tenet releasing a made to order National Intelligence Estimate summary supporting the WMD case that heavily influenced President Bush. The detailed report was far less clear than the summary. In September 2002, NY Times columnist Judith Miller struck again this time on page one writing that Saddam Hussein was actively searching for A-bomb parts, later proven false.
By the fall of 2002 with the decision to go to war made and Congress offering no serious opposition, Rumsfeld began planning. Unlike Cheney in the Gulf War Rumsfeld overrode his military scaling back required force estimates, particularly for the aftermath. Calling it planning is really a misnomer. Inexperienced civilian hardliners put together PowerPoints on what to expect. Input from experienced people in the State Department or military was largely ignored. Those that objected such as knowledgeable former generals Shinseki and Zinni were vilified. The official line was that the troops would be welcomed as liberators, quickly turn the government back over to the Iraqis, and leave. It was all politically generated and naïve. In February 2003 Secretary of State Colin Powell with Tenet sitting behind him gave a speech at the UN offering “evidence” of Iraqi WMD. This abysmal low point in his career came about because he accepted the CIA summary and unverified input from the administration, all of which was crafted to support a decision already made.
The US attacked in March 2003. Taking Baghdad proceeded pretty much as planned. Little else did. The Iraqi troops didn’t defect in mass and support the Americans as the administration had predicted. Once defeated, most waited to see what the Americans would do. Some melted into the civilian population and began organizing resistance starting by stocking up on arms that Saddam had stashed around the country. General Franks did not take responsibility for what followed in Iraq after his “victory” in taking Baghdad. The U.S. had no plan to administer Iraq after Saddam’s fall. U.S. forces didn’t secure the borders, seize Saddam’s arm stashes or maintain order. Chaos ensued with widespread looting and vandalism. American troops never expected to be an occupation force, for which they were severely undermanned. Some were busy hunting for WMDs that didn’t exist. Others were getting ready to go home as they had been promised. Iraqis figured Americans didn’t care or simply were incapable of taking control. They soon lost any faith they may have had in their “liberators”. Meanwhile on May 1, 2003 Bush was quick to claim victory flying in a combat jet onto the deck of an aircraft carrier over which a banner claimed “mission accomplished”.
In May 2003 as the situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate, Paul Bremer was appointed to head the Coalition Provisional Authority. He technically reported to Rumsfeld, but Rumsfeld thought he reported to the White House National Security Council. It didn’t matter because Bremer did what he wanted. General Franks was replaced by General Sanchez who reported to Central Command in Tampa which reported to Rumsfeld. No single person in Iraq was in charge and Bremer and Sanchez could barely stand each other. Bremer wasted no time disenfranchising Iraqis. First he fired all “senior” Baathist party members from government run organizations. That put 85,000 people who knew how to operate the country’s infrastructure on the street without jobs. Next he dissolved the Iraqi Army, putting 385,000 men on the streets with no income and plenty of time to express their resentment. Then he let go the 285,000 working for the Interior Ministry which included police and security forces. The U.S. Army had not been notified in advance of these decisions. Even Rumsfeld didn’t seem to know about these decisions. Bremer’s actions ensured the occupation would be a long one and proved to be an excellent way to get the Iraqi insurgency up and running. Bombing and sniping increased and was widespread within a couple of months. But back in Washington the Bush administration denied that there was a serious problem and still expressed confidence that that they would find WMD. In July when asked about Iraqis attacking U. S. forces Bush said, “My answer is: Bring ‘em on.” A year later the Islamic Jihad Army replied, “Have you another challenge.”
Bombings increased. Particularly significant was the bomb laden truck that crashed into the UN mission in Iraq in August 2003 killing twenty-two and wounding seventy. The blast broke windows a half mile away. The UN reduced its presence to a token and ceased being the mediator between the U.S. and Shiite leaders. Other international organizations took note and began leaving. The insurgency was being strategic cutting Americans off from constructive contact with Iraqis. American forces were a hammer in search of a nail. The U.S. employed counterproductive conventional war tactics with armored vehicles patrolling through Iraqi neighborhoods, mass roundups and imprisonments, nighttime raids on personal residences humiliating men in front of their families, physical and mental abuse of detainees; all guaranteed to alienate everyday Iraqis. As Iraqi animosity intensified, the IED, the low tech roadside bomb, became the weapon of choice for the insurgents. The IED was very effective. It was responsible for one-third of U.S. troop deaths in the insurgency’s first year and two-thirds of casualties requiring medical evacuation out of Iraq. IED attacks would steadily increase throughout 2004. The IED further isolated U.S. troops who became very reluctant to venture out among the Iraqis except as ordered on combat style missions. General Sanchez provided little central direction thus area commanders used varying tactics, some particularly harsh and alienating but a few such as General Petraeus in the Iraqi north employed proven counterinsurgency measures to good effect. Counterinsurgency calls for winning over the people by engaging with them and respecting them, the opposite of what most U.S. divisions were doing.
In early October 2003 Bush still had the blinders on saying “The situation is improving on a daily basis in Iraq. People are freer, the security situation is getting better.” That month the Ramadan offensive got underway. The insurgents sent a message to the U.S. by launching rockets into the heavily protected American Green Zone. Rockets struck the hotel where Wolfowitz was staying killing an Army officer on the floor below. They also sent a message to Iraqis working with the Americans assassinating one of the Baghdad mayors. Violence dramatically escalated to 45 attacks per day on American forces. U.S. helicopters were shot down. 60 U.S. troops were killed in two weeks. All in all by November more U.S. troops had been killed from May to November 2003 than in the U.S. invasion. Rumsfeld and the Bush administration’s plans still called for reducing U.S. troop strength based on their belief that things were going well but now doubts crept in. Finally Rumsfeld changed his tune saying publically “We’re in a low-intensity war that needs to be won.” Even the capture of Saddam Hussain in December didn’t help. Many Iraqi’s felt now they could join the resistance since they would no longer be fighting for Saddam.
The U.S. Army was given the unexpected role of administering Iraqi prisons including tens of thousands of detainees collected in the growing number of cordon and sweep operations. While targeting known insurgents, many innocent suspects were routinely detained in the sweeps and sent off to prison. Abu Ghraib, the main prison, was overwhelmed. Prisoners waited weeks and months to be interrogated. Many were simply lost in the system. The reserve MP troops running the prison were not properly trained or supervised and abuse was prevalent, not that abuse was confined to the prisons. Individual field divisions varied widely in their treatment of detained Iraqis. Detainees were frequently subject to violence and humiliation before entering prison. Ricks spends many pages describing the myriad ways prisoners were mistreated, injured and sometimes killed and much became public. Then the news about abu Ghraib broke in April 2004. Americans, Iraqis and people around the world were stunned. Military leaders could claim they were unaware of much of the abuse in the field and prisons, largely because many commanders had let it be known that they didn’t want to hear about it.
As 2004 unfolded the Iraqi insurgency hardened and spread. Now the insurgents were better equipped and experienced. But U.S. forces rotated out after one year. Their replacements had to learn all over again how war in Iraq was fought. It wasn’t the war they were trained to fight. The few good working relationships between Iraqi and U.S. forces were lost. A significant failure of those leaving was not properly training, equipping and supporting Iraqi forces the U.S. had recruited. This was essential given the inability of Americans to understand and deal with people of a different culture and language. Another failure that undercut attempts to implement counterinsurgency doctrine was not providing security for the majority of Iraqis who were not insurgents. The average Iraqi was terrified by uncontrolled crime. Kidnappings, robberies and rapes were commonplace. If the U.S. couldn’t protect them, better to align with the insurgents. Another failure was not getting basic services up and running. What were Iraqis with no electricity to think when they saw the bright lights emanating from the green zone?
In March 2004 Fallujah exploded. A group of Blackwater security contractors bypassed a marine checkpoint, were ambushed, dismembered, hung from a bridge, then burned to cheering crowds. General Mattis and his Marines had taken over from the army in Fallujah just days earlier. Mattis saw this as a ploy by the insurgents to draw them into a major battle. Mattis who had trained his troops in counterinsurgency tactics wanted to wait then go after just the insurgents responsible to maintain relations with city residents. He and his military bosses including Sanchez were overruled. President Bush demanded major action immediately to offset the images on TV. Without time to gather intelligence the marines went in clearing the city block by block in intense fighting. The fighting spread to nearby Ramadi, then Shiite militias attacked the south of Iraq and in Shiite enclaves in Baghdad. Sunni and Shiite attacks spread to other cities. Attacks on convoys increased sharply. Iraqi troops that Americans had recruited refused to fight other Iraqis. In April President Bush inexplicably said “Most of Fallujah is returning to normal”. Nothing could have been further from the truth. The marines were forced by Bush to turn the city back over to those they had been fighting, so he could claim victory. The war strategy was being directed politically and ineptly from the White House. Iraq was on fire, the insurgents were winning battles and the people fell in line. At one U.S. battalion HQ, a sign read “Dilbert of the Day: The key to happiness is self-delusion.”
Ricks goes on to describe many other battles. As 2004 rolled into summer both sides improved their tactics, but the U.S. still lacked a strategy to win or end the war echoing Viet Nam. Special Forces were not being used effectively, but given the debacle of conventional warfare in 2004, by 2005 they would be seen as the answer. Special Forces were designed to engage in small scale precise actions designed to eliminate the enemy without alienating the people. By 2005 two pillars of the rationale for invasion were laid to rest. There were no WMD and no linkage between Saddam Hussain’s regime and al Qaeda. The third pillar of the rationale, liberation, also looked incredibly weak. After abu Ghraib and the toll of destruction and death experienced by everyday Iraqis how could it be said they were better off? The New York Times and other newspapers that had lent support to the war hawks changed their tune. Congress chimed in and began criticizing the administration for the handling of the war. The fallaciousness of Judith Miller’s reporting was exposed and she left the Times in 2005. In mid-2004 Bremer and General Sanchez were replaced. The new leadership began the transition to counterinsurgency tactics. In November 2004 the second battle of Fallujah began. This time with three times the number of troops, months of planning and the use of Special Operations, the marines took the city in fierce methodical block-by-block house-to-house combat. Much of the fighting was at close quarters, but the marines also fired four thousand artillery rounds and ten thousand mortar shells supplemented by ten tons of bombs dropped from the air. Two thousand buildings in Fallujah were destroyed and ten thousand damaged. The battle was important to show that the insurgents were not the inevitable winners, but the destruction of Fallujah was hardly going to endear the residents to their “liberators”. The death of residents was minimized since almost all left the city before the battle began.
In 2005 the insurgency became more sophisticated and expanded. The U.S. began implementing new tactics that were anathema in 2003. This is where Ricks leaves us, the book published in 2006. The takeaways are pretty obvious. A politically driven disastrous war was entered into by an administration motivated by paranoid beliefs, an administration that isolated itself ignoring experienced and knowledgeable input, an administration that bought into any story that supported its preconceived notions, an administration that could never admit it made mistakes, an administration living in a delusion. Ricks ends by exploring possible scenarios for the future of Iraq. He considers civil and regional war as possibilities. Many of these scenarios and more are still possible as our latest president know-it-all tinkers with forces he doesn’t understand in the Middle East, maintaining America’s involvement in the Yemini Civil War and taunting Iran. Reading how the Bush administration drove America to war in Iraq sends a chill down my spine when I think about how our current president employs the same modus-operandi.