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Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights
Probable Outcomes continues the Crestmont Research tradition of full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the stock market. The unique combination of investment science and investment art explores the market from several perspectives, and addresses the implications for a broad range of investors. Ed Easterling delivers an insightful analysis of the likely course for the stock market over the 2010 decade. Investors and advisors will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource provides a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles that drive the stock market. Based on years of research, Probable Outcomes offers sensible conclusions that will empower you to take action, guide your investment choices during the current period of below-average returns, and allow you to invest with confidence, whatever your financial strategy.
256 pages, Hardcover
First published January 14, 2011
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
April 27, 2021
A very good book discussing Strategic Asset Allocation. Before diving in please read the previous book by Ed Easterling titled "Unexpected Returns". Probable Outcomes can be read separately but it builds on ideas developed in the previous book. Authors thought process can be much easier followed if the books are read in the proper order.
Probable Outcomes is not as good as Unexpected Returns. I still find it involving and revealing as the author goes through the Y-curve effect of inflation on P/E or its Financial Physics Model which I somewhat understood this time.
I love that Ed devotes more time than most authors to explain volatility's devastating impact on investment returns. He also takes on the Efficient-Market Hypothesis or MPT and CAPM but didn't go with it far enough for my liking.
Diving into the fundamental theories Mr Easterling could start to look at his own Secular Stock Market Model, which from 2000 until 2021 still points to the recession. I fully understand the backbone of P/E valuation behind it, but if the P/E averages post-1990 seems to be detached from historical valuations, 30 years is a long time not to change one's approach against the stubborn markets.
Probable Outcomes is not as good as Unexpected Returns. I still find it involving and revealing as the author goes through the Y-curve effect of inflation on P/E or its Financial Physics Model which I somewhat understood this time.
I love that Ed devotes more time than most authors to explain volatility's devastating impact on investment returns. He also takes on the Efficient-Market Hypothesis or MPT and CAPM but didn't go with it far enough for my liking.
Diving into the fundamental theories Mr Easterling could start to look at his own Secular Stock Market Model, which from 2000 until 2021 still points to the recession. I fully understand the backbone of P/E valuation behind it, but if the P/E averages post-1990 seems to be detached from historical valuations, 30 years is a long time not to change one's approach against the stubborn markets.
July 16, 2020
This study will illustrate how to adapt strategic asset allocation to utilize a forward looking approach for more realistic and reasonable asset allocation decisions.
August 11, 2020
A great follow up to Unexpected Returns. This book illustrates the importance of getting the secular cycle right when it comes to your asset allocation.
March 7, 2012
Ed Easterling has changed the way I think about saving for retirement. His clear explanation of secular bull/bear cycles makes sense and his rowing vs sailing analogy for how we need to invest in each type of market is compelling.
I was introduced to this book by an excerpt published in John Mauldin's newsletter and then later heard Easterling speak at an investment conference. This book is somewhat dry in the middle. I would recommend reading the first section and then skip right to the fourth and fifth sections with a skimming of the charts in the second and third sections. If you are unfamiliar with or unconvinced by the financial physics model introduced in the first section then go back and read the second and third sections later.
I was introduced to this book by an excerpt published in John Mauldin's newsletter and then later heard Easterling speak at an investment conference. This book is somewhat dry in the middle. I would recommend reading the first section and then skip right to the fourth and fifth sections with a skimming of the charts in the second and third sections. If you are unfamiliar with or unconvinced by the financial physics model introduced in the first section then go back and read the second and third sections later.
June 2, 2016
An excellent follow up for his 2005 book-Unexpected Return, the author Ed Easterling reviewed his ideas and updated the data to 2010. While reviewing his key ideas, his reasoning is more organized this time and the argument is easier to follow. He spent the majority of the book analyzing the current bear cycle starting in 2000 with P/E ratio at 40+. He argues the current P/E ratio at around 20 will need to fall further before the secular market ends, as a bull market usually starts when P/E ratio at high single digit.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews