Solid Fool's Gold: Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom

by Bill James

Since he first began publishing his Baseball Abstracts in the 1980s, Bill James has constantly challenged conventional wisdom by asking simple questions like, "Is that really true?" or "What if we looked at the question this way?" He has sparked a virtual revolution in the way the game of baseball is understood and played, from how players are evaluated or positioned to whether or not they should attempt to bunt or steal a base. In Solid Fool s Gold James continues his lifelong work with new analyses

Genres: Baseball, Sports, Nonfiction

207 pages, Paperback

First published February 15, 2011

About the author

George William “Bill” James (born October 5, 1949, in Holton, Kansas) is a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose. His Baseball Abstract books in the 1980s are the modern predecessor to websites using sabermetrics such as Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Primer (now Baseball Think Factory).

In 2006, Time named him in the Time 100 as one of the most influential people in the world. He is currently a Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox. In 2010, Bill James was inducted into the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_James

Reviews

[Gwern · Rating 2 out of 5]

Moved to gwern.net.

[Jay French · Rating 3 out of 5]

Bill James is toying with us here. This is a collection of James articles that includes a baseball on the cover. Implying baseball stories of the kind James is excellent at – historical references, statistics re-swizzled a new way, pithy writing, unexpected outcome, or at least an expected outcome explained and put into context. Most of the essays hit the mark here, including ones on teams that stink, late career improvements, streaky pitching, great starting rotations, expansion’s impact on upcoming Hall of Fame voting, pitchers that learn, great pitcher duels of the 80s, minor league organization, and what teams know that isn’t true.

But he includes some topics on articles outside of baseball, for him scratching some kind of itch as it were. Included here are short essays about rain measurement, the declining value of advertising, the costs of airport security, tipping, racism in baseball and life, and stoplight cameras. I found the baseball essays better, as expected, since that’s what I’m here for. But as a whole, this is an entertaining lot of stories. It’s the genius of James, to think about things in terms of the basics, to tell the story in entertaining ways, and to come up with a different view than you’d expect starting out. His method works for stats-driven baseball stories, but also for analysis of other topics as well. I enjoyed this one, and will also be reading his next essay collection.

[Tom Stamper · Rating 4 out of 5]

Near the end of the book, Bill James publishes a speech he gave to a group of statisticians in Kansas City. He acknowledges that he is not a statistician and wouldn’t call himself one. Statisticians are trained to do things with numbers that Bill James could not do. What Bill James does is take widely accepted axioms and try to test them against the existing baseball statistics.

Bill James sees himself as a Socrates figure whose wisdom comes from knowing that he does not know anything. The world is just too complex a place to predict the future. But ignorance allows him to ask questions the experts take for granted and find answers that no one was bothering to find. I think what he means by Solid Fools Gold is all that conventional wisdom that turned out to be bushwa. It happens in baseball and happens everywhere else in life.

One of my favorite essays in this book is “Shakespeare and Verlander”. James tells us that modern Topeka is as big as Elizabethan London. Kansas is as big as England was. Why then did that culture produce Shakespeare, Ben Jonson, Christopher Marlowe, and Francis Bacon while Topeka has not a single notable dramatist? James decides that’s because every city and every time doesn’t need another Shakespeare. The great writing of the past can be enjoyed for hundreds of years and thus money and training aren’t spent creating endless playwrights. Instead, our society spends efforts on creating better and better athletes because there are new games to play every day.

Humans psychologically needs to believe that experts exist to understand and solve nearly every human problem. Somehow the evidence of their inability to solve every human problem isn’t held against them, because the psychological need will argue vociferously against the facts. A co-worker once stormed off when I casually showed him the objective tests of Ionic Air purifiers, something we had spoke of previously. I was happy to find they were a waste of money. It made him angry. Bill James made a lot of baseball experts angry.

Not all of these essays are about baseball, but they are all about trying to understand things in the world by analysis and/or measurement. The reader will find that analysis and measurement aren’t always possible which is another valuable lesson in life. Socrates was the wisest man in Athens for knowing that he knew nothing. There was a time when I thought Socrates was being falsely modest, but Bill James career is showing why the only true wisdom is understanding how little we all know.

[Steven Peterson · Rating 3 out of 5]

Odd book from Bill James, baseball guru and sabermetrician. This book? He says that (Page 8): "Some of these articles could be considered serious baseball research, . . .Some of them are not."

The very first essay is on an approach to predicting RBIs (runs batted in) from other batting data. Voila! A simple formula that appears to predict well. Torii Hunter's actual RBI total=90; his predicted total=90! Alex Rodriguez drove in more than expected; Ichiro less than expected. Fun reading, trying to make sense of baseball statistics.

Another section addresses what the best starting rotations of all time are from 1 through 33. Number 1? 1903 Giants: Joe McGinnity, Christy Mathewson, Luther Taylor, and Hooks Wiltse. Number 33? 2002 Atlanta Braves: Greg Maddux, Kevin Millwood, Tom Glavine, and Damian Moss.

And now for something completely different. James' ruminations on a cousin--Supreme Court Justice James McReynolds--racist and anti-Semite (he would not shake hands with Louis Brandeis, for example). Interesting reflections, including how old Negro League legend Buck O'Neil might interact with Justice McReynolds.

A lot of fun, but not much focus. I guess that when you've made the big time, you are allowed some openness for an idiosyncratic book!

[Joe · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a difficult review... I love Bill James, and his combination of ultra-logical analysis and random turns of thought. Others might find it odd to read reasoned baseball analysis next to an essay on the likelihood of producing another Justin Verlander or William Shakespeare, or a commentary on how tipping will be outlawed by 2050. Personally, I enjoyed every minute and think the book is worthy of a five star rating. But if you're not a) a pretty serious baseball fan and b) aware of the nature of Bill James's writing, this might be a bit jarring. Thus, I leave it at four, but a very highly recommended four.

[Logan Blomberg · Rating 4 out of 5]

Loved all the deep-diving nerdy baseball content. Giving 4 stars because of the random chapters on Bill’s hot takes about life as a whole.

[Darrenglass · Rating 4 out of 5]

Intellectually, I understand that there are people who think of themselves as baseball fans but who arent obsesse with Bill James. But those peoples' minds are so different from my own that I have a hard time fathoming them. Bill James writes very well about very interesting topics, most (but not all) of which are related to baseball. This book is a collection of essays, mostly from his website, so it lacks a cohesive narrative or theme, and this would be its one flaw. But James is, as always, a great read. If you are a baseball fan and you have never read his books, do yourself a favor and pick this one up.

[Ray Charbonneau · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bill's books aren't quite as entertaining as they used to be, but that's a high standard to meet. There are two reasons: he's addressed the big issues, so what remains is of less significance, and he has reigned in his wit and certainty in an attempt to be less unintentionally offensive to some. Still, what's left is pretty good. And I agree 100% with Bill on figure skating as a competitive sport.

[Mike · Rating 4 out of 5]

As usual, Bill James is even more interesting when he's writing about other subjects, though there's some interesting sabermetric stuff in here, too. I'm really looking forward to his book on crime.