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The Blind Spot: Science and the Crisis of Uncertainty
Why absolute certainty is impossible in science
In today's unpredictable and chaotic world, we look to science to provide certainty and answers―and often blame it when things go wrong. The Blind Spot reveals why our faith in scientific certainty is a dangerous illusion, and how only by embracing science's inherent ambiguities and paradoxes can we truly appreciate its beauty and harness its potential.
Crackling with insights into our most perplexing contemporary dilemmas, from climate change to the global financial meltdown, this book challenges our most sacredly held beliefs about science, technology, and progress. At the same time, it shows how the secret to better science can be found where we least expect it―in the uncertain, the ambiguous, and the inevitably unpredictable. William Byers explains why the subjective element in scientific inquiry is in fact what makes it so dynamic, and deftly balances the need for certainty and rigor in science with the equally important need for creativity, freedom, and downright wonder. Drawing on an array of fascinating examples―from Wall Street's overreliance on algorithms to provide certainty in uncertain markets, to undecidable problems in mathematics and computer science, to Georg Cantor's paradoxical but true assertion about infinity―Byers demonstrates how we can and must learn from the existence of blind spots in our scientific and mathematical understanding.
The Blind Spot offers an entirely new way of thinking about science, one that highlights its strengths and limitations, its unrealized promise, and, above all, its unavoidable ambiguity. It also points to a more sophisticated approach to the most intractable problems of our time.
In today's unpredictable and chaotic world, we look to science to provide certainty and answers―and often blame it when things go wrong. The Blind Spot reveals why our faith in scientific certainty is a dangerous illusion, and how only by embracing science's inherent ambiguities and paradoxes can we truly appreciate its beauty and harness its potential.
Crackling with insights into our most perplexing contemporary dilemmas, from climate change to the global financial meltdown, this book challenges our most sacredly held beliefs about science, technology, and progress. At the same time, it shows how the secret to better science can be found where we least expect it―in the uncertain, the ambiguous, and the inevitably unpredictable. William Byers explains why the subjective element in scientific inquiry is in fact what makes it so dynamic, and deftly balances the need for certainty and rigor in science with the equally important need for creativity, freedom, and downright wonder. Drawing on an array of fascinating examples―from Wall Street's overreliance on algorithms to provide certainty in uncertain markets, to undecidable problems in mathematics and computer science, to Georg Cantor's paradoxical but true assertion about infinity―Byers demonstrates how we can and must learn from the existence of blind spots in our scientific and mathematical understanding.
The Blind Spot offers an entirely new way of thinking about science, one that highlights its strengths and limitations, its unrealized promise, and, above all, its unavoidable ambiguity. It also points to a more sophisticated approach to the most intractable problems of our time.
- GenresScienceNonfiction
240 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2011
3 people are currently reading
87 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
April 15, 2020
It's a garglemesh of philosophy and name-dropping. Byers does not speak much of matters mathematical and goes instead down an aimless path; mainly dropping names of artists, writers, and scientists as he goes. There is nothing stunning or earth-shaking in his words. Now I get why the Dewey number for this book is 500 - general science. It probably could have gone under 100 as well. Byers is not the most enthralling writer, either. Is that why he brings up as many names as he does? Just makes me want to place holds on their works and forget him.
Anyway, this is a meh book and I'll be glad to see it go.
Anyway, this is a meh book and I'll be glad to see it go.
September 26, 2014
I was hoping more for the mathematical handling of uncertainty in data, but this book was more about the philosophy of science and society as it relates to scientific advance. There are some simple math examples and some interesting arguments, but it just wasn't what I was looking for.
May 14, 2025
A few repetitions and niggles with the last 3 chapters, but the first 7 were excellent in core ideas
June 24, 2011
Storms of my Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity by James Hansen
"Storms of my Grandchildren" is a book about the science, history, politics and recommendations on how to address the global warming reality of our planet. This 320-page book is composed of the following eleven chapters: 1. The Vice President's Climate Task Force, 2. The A-Team and the Secretary's Quandary, 3. A Visit to the White House, 4. Time Warp, 5. Dangerous Reticence: A Slippery Slope, 6. The Faustian Bargain: Humanity's Own Trap, 7. Is There Still Time? A Tribute to Charles David Keeling, 8. Target Carbon Dioxide: Where Should Humanity Aim?, 9. An Honest, Effective Path, 10. The Venus Syndrome, and 11. Storms of My Grandchildren.
Positives:
1. A well-written, thoroughly researched book the state of global warming.
2. Refreshingly honest, even-handed and an equal opportunity critic of both parties.
3. One of very few authors I've read that actually owns up to mistakes and missed opportunities.
4. A great scientific explanation of the reality of global warming. This is one of the best books that explain the science in an accessible manner.
5. Makes it perfectly clear that the exploitation of all fossil fuels on Earth threatens our planet. A point that is imbedded in your brain after reading it.
6. The official definitions of pertinent terms regarding climate change. Such as climate forcings.
7. The relevance of getting the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount down to 350 parts per million (ppm or molecules in the air).
8. The terrifying impact of global warming for the future, perhaps very near future...
9. Coal burning at power plants as the greatest source of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
10. Great use of graphs and illustrations.
11. Openly criticizes climate models that do a poor job of capturing the real world. Climate history is the best source of information about how sensitive the climate system is.
12. The significance of Planck's law.
13. Fascinating tidbits throughout book. Take the case of instigation, the small changes to Earth's tilt and orbit around the sun.
14. The understanding that we humans control both global surface albedo and greenhouse gas amounts. Human-made climate forcings, is large and changes in decades.
15. The three big sources of inertia affecting global warming: the ocean, the ice sheets, and world energy systems. The truth about them.
16. The other big three, the fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. A thorough look.
17. The reality that the public knows so little about the dangers of global warming.
18. The negative impact of lobbyists and their threat to democracy. Follow the money...
19. The most important scientific measures discussed.
20. Keeling's curve.
21. Carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide...
22. Common sense suggestions on how to address global warming.
23. The alarming and irreversible reality of sea level rise and its implications.
24. The importance of foraminifera (microscopic animals).
25. Observations of five phenomena of why the target carbon concentration should not exceed 350 ppm.
26. The clear distinction made between weather and climate.
27. What countries are most responsible for global warming? Find out...
28. Why the Kyoto accord is flawed.
29. Why have fossil fuels continued to reign supreme? Find out...
30. Find out the most effective policy against fossil fuels.
31. The benefits of nuclear energy. Interesting.
32. Why the cap-and-trade approach does not work.
33. The Venus Syndrome.
34. "In fact, with humans on the planet, there will never be another ice age".
35. The implications of an ice-free planet.
36. Future storm effects. It will "blow" your mind.
37. A couple of excellent appendices.
38. Very good Q&A with Bill McKibben.
Negatives:
1. No links. A book of this caliber needs references to original sources.
2. One of the biggest criticisms of this book and books of this like is the alarmist tone. Dr. Hansen does in fact take this tone as evidenced by the "Venus Syndrome" .
3. The inability to provide succinct timetables of the point of no return.
4. In general the book is accessible to the laymen but there are areas that are esoteric by nature of the topic.
5. I wished Dr. Hansen would have had a chapter on the average person's impact on global warming. As an example, the advantage and disadvantages of driving a hybrid over a conventional vehicle.
6. Not the most eloquent prose but effective.
In summary, this is an important book on global warming. Dr. Hansen uses compelling arguments based on sound science to educate us on the dangers of global warming and provides suggestions on how to avoid the point of no return. Alarming yet educational and it is one the best science books on this topic. Highly recommended.
Recommendations: "Science Under Siege" by Kendrick Frazier, and "Merchants of Doubt..." by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway.
"Storms of my Grandchildren" is a book about the science, history, politics and recommendations on how to address the global warming reality of our planet. This 320-page book is composed of the following eleven chapters: 1. The Vice President's Climate Task Force, 2. The A-Team and the Secretary's Quandary, 3. A Visit to the White House, 4. Time Warp, 5. Dangerous Reticence: A Slippery Slope, 6. The Faustian Bargain: Humanity's Own Trap, 7. Is There Still Time? A Tribute to Charles David Keeling, 8. Target Carbon Dioxide: Where Should Humanity Aim?, 9. An Honest, Effective Path, 10. The Venus Syndrome, and 11. Storms of My Grandchildren.
Positives:
1. A well-written, thoroughly researched book the state of global warming.
2. Refreshingly honest, even-handed and an equal opportunity critic of both parties.
3. One of very few authors I've read that actually owns up to mistakes and missed opportunities.
4. A great scientific explanation of the reality of global warming. This is one of the best books that explain the science in an accessible manner.
5. Makes it perfectly clear that the exploitation of all fossil fuels on Earth threatens our planet. A point that is imbedded in your brain after reading it.
6. The official definitions of pertinent terms regarding climate change. Such as climate forcings.
7. The relevance of getting the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount down to 350 parts per million (ppm or molecules in the air).
8. The terrifying impact of global warming for the future, perhaps very near future...
9. Coal burning at power plants as the greatest source of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
10. Great use of graphs and illustrations.
11. Openly criticizes climate models that do a poor job of capturing the real world. Climate history is the best source of information about how sensitive the climate system is.
12. The significance of Planck's law.
13. Fascinating tidbits throughout book. Take the case of instigation, the small changes to Earth's tilt and orbit around the sun.
14. The understanding that we humans control both global surface albedo and greenhouse gas amounts. Human-made climate forcings, is large and changes in decades.
15. The three big sources of inertia affecting global warming: the ocean, the ice sheets, and world energy systems. The truth about them.
16. The other big three, the fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. A thorough look.
17. The reality that the public knows so little about the dangers of global warming.
18. The negative impact of lobbyists and their threat to democracy. Follow the money...
19. The most important scientific measures discussed.
20. Keeling's curve.
21. Carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide...
22. Common sense suggestions on how to address global warming.
23. The alarming and irreversible reality of sea level rise and its implications.
24. The importance of foraminifera (microscopic animals).
25. Observations of five phenomena of why the target carbon concentration should not exceed 350 ppm.
26. The clear distinction made between weather and climate.
27. What countries are most responsible for global warming? Find out...
28. Why the Kyoto accord is flawed.
29. Why have fossil fuels continued to reign supreme? Find out...
30. Find out the most effective policy against fossil fuels.
31. The benefits of nuclear energy. Interesting.
32. Why the cap-and-trade approach does not work.
33. The Venus Syndrome.
34. "In fact, with humans on the planet, there will never be another ice age".
35. The implications of an ice-free planet.
36. Future storm effects. It will "blow" your mind.
37. A couple of excellent appendices.
38. Very good Q&A with Bill McKibben.
Negatives:
1. No links. A book of this caliber needs references to original sources.
2. One of the biggest criticisms of this book and books of this like is the alarmist tone. Dr. Hansen does in fact take this tone as evidenced by the "Venus Syndrome" .
3. The inability to provide succinct timetables of the point of no return.
4. In general the book is accessible to the laymen but there are areas that are esoteric by nature of the topic.
5. I wished Dr. Hansen would have had a chapter on the average person's impact on global warming. As an example, the advantage and disadvantages of driving a hybrid over a conventional vehicle.
6. Not the most eloquent prose but effective.
In summary, this is an important book on global warming. Dr. Hansen uses compelling arguments based on sound science to educate us on the dangers of global warming and provides suggestions on how to avoid the point of no return. Alarming yet educational and it is one the best science books on this topic. Highly recommended.
Recommendations: "Science Under Siege" by Kendrick Frazier, and "Merchants of Doubt..." by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway.
Want to read
June 18, 2014FOSEP book club, spring 2014
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews