Within the forum of a mock trial, an eminent mathematician argues for the defense and prosecution, then renders the verdict on the origin of life, sociobiology, language acquisition, artificial intelligence, extraterrestrial life, and quantum reality
John L. Casti (born 1943) is an author, mathematician, and entrepreneur.
As a mathematician and researcher, Casti received his Ph.D. under Richard Bellman at the University of Southern California. He worked at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, and served on the faculties of the University of Arizona, New York University and Princeton University, before moving to Vienna in 1973 to become one of the first members of the research staff at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. In 1986, he left IIASA to take up a position as a Professor of Operations Research and System Theory at the Technical University of Vienna. He also served as a member of the External Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, from 1992-2002, where he worked extensively on the application of biological metaphors to the mathematical modeling of problems in economics, finance and road-traffic networks, as well as on large-scale computer simulations for the study of such networks.
His primary research interests have shifted somewhat in recent years from the natural sciences to the exploration of questions in the social and behavioral realm. One thread has been exploration of the relationship between the social "mood" of a population its biasing effect on actions and behaviors. In this direction, his 2010 book, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, published by Copernicus Books, NY, addresses the directions and patterns of social causation and their implications for future trends and collective social events, such as styles in popular culture, the outcome of political processes, and even the rise and fall of civilizations. His most recent book is X-EVENTS: The Collapse of Everything, which addresses the underlying cause of extreme events generated by human inattention, misunderstanding, error, stupidity and/or malevolent intent. The English original edition was published in June 2012 by HarperCollins/Morrow, New York. The book now exists in 15 foreign editions, as well, including German, Japanese, Russian, Dutch, Korean and Portuguese.
As an entrepreneur, Casti formed two companies in Santa Fe and London in 2000, Qforma, Inc. and SimWorld, Ltd, respectively, devoted to the employment of tools and concepts from modern system theory for the solution of problems in business and finance, as well as health care. Qforma merged with SkilaMederi in June 2013. In early 2005 he returned to Vienna where he co-founded The Kenos Circle, a professional society that aims to make use of complexity science in order to gain a deeper insight into the future than that offered by more conventional statistical tools.
For several years, Professor Casti was a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, where he created an initiative for the study on Extreme Events in Human Society. In January 2012 he left IIASA to form a new research institute in Vienna, The X-Center, devoted to the study of human-caused extreme events. The X-Center has now expanded to a network of affiliated X-Centers in Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, New York and Singapore. Since early 2013, Dr. Casti has been serving as a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the USA.
As an author, Casti has written more than 120 scientific articles and seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling. In addition, he was formerly editor of the journals Applied Mathematics & Computation (Elsevier, New York) and Complexity (Wiley, New York). In 1989 his text/reference works Alternate Realities: Mathematical Models of Nature and Man (Wiley, 1989) was awarded a prize by the Association of American Publishers in a competition among all scholarly books published in mathematics and the natural sciences. In 1992, he also published Reality Rules (Wiley, New York), a t
Originally published on my blog here in August 2001.
Areas on the cutting edge of scientific research tend to generate controversy for several reasons. Experiments have not yet definitively ruled out possibilities, so that people are free to theorise. The disagreements are really philosophical and political (since they often determine the allocation of funding for research) rather than scientific. Personalities become involved, and frequently toes are trodden on in other disciplines - which computer programmer, for example, would want to be told by a psychologist whether or not his work might ever produce a computer that can be called intelligent?
Casti chooses six example controversies, all of which have something to do with the uniqueness of human beings - the origin of life on earth, the "nature vs nurture" debate, the origin of the human capacity for language, artificial intelligence, the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence, and the role of the observer in quantum mechanics. The selection is completed by an introductory chapter on scientific method (needed to help explain why some arguments are non-scientific later). Casti explains the issues involved and the arguments used for and against the main points of view reasonably clearly (the most difficult sections being some of the quantum mechanical descriptions) for the non-scientist. It is perhaps a bok aimed more at someone who has read some popular science before rather than someone completely new to the ideas, because it is about more philosophical issues than many books on these subjects. It also doesn't portray science as monolithic and complete, as there is a tendency to do.
Casti isn't afraid to speak his mind, and can be quite scathing, particularly about arguments which have nothing to do with science, such as some of the more obviously politically motivated attacks on the work of Noam Chomsky. At the end of each chapter, he says what his own views on the subject are, and why, and is unfailingly interesting. The book concludes with an excellent "Further Reading" section, the utility of which is only slightly diminished by the age of the book, which is just beginning to seem a little out of date in places. I must look out for Casti's more recent work!
I can't understand why this book is out of print - I assume that it is as I had to order a used copy. It is a beautifully-written tour of how science has found our place in the world. By turns witty and erudite, Casti has an uncommon grasp of the whole range of scientific endeavour and the issues that make up the transition between science and philosophy.
It will save time if I start with the list of things I didn't like about this book, as it turned out to be a short list. It's basically one item, in fact: Casti presents the whole thing as a series of court cases, with the "prosecution" presenting the case that science has seized some aspect of our place in the Universe and the "defence" claiming like a bunch of besuited reprobates that the mystery remains. Harmless enough, perhaps, but there is a lamentable tendency in today's on-line discourse to confuse science with adversarial debate and claim that "both sides" should be heard. How one can assign two "sides" to the value of the fine-structure constant or the role of feedbacks in climate is beyond me, but the trend in debate is undeniable. Casti wrote before the world of blogs and chat groups had really come into being and can't be held responsible for not foreseeing the rise of science-denial, but to those of us who are sensitised it looks a bit irresponsible in retrospect to reinforce this confusion.
Otherwise, the book is a tour de force. Not taking instruction well and already being familiar with the broad sweep of the philosophy of science, I ignored Casti's advice and read the entire book from beginning to end in one, long session. That said, the book is actually arranged so that any particular chapter can be read independently of the others and the early section on what science "is" could be left out altogether. This is what Casti suggests. A single chapter would serve you well for a longish train journey.
It all comes down to why are we here and what is our place? There are chapters on abiogenesis, genetic determinism, language acquisition, artificial intelligence, the presence or otherwise of alien civilisation and observer-based reality. There are very extensive appendices to each chapter, gathered at the end of the book, with copious suggestions for further reading. My backlog just got even bigger...
One surprise for me was in the section on language acquisition, where I found for the first time just how influential Chomsky's ideas have been. I am familiar with his political rhetoric but had only passingly heard of his ideas of an innate grammar until now. It appears to be a more weighty and scientifically resonant idea than I ever understood, and Chomsky has in effect shaped an entire field. Odd that I would find this out just as the grip of his influence in linguistics seems finally to be weakening.
The entire book is a joy to read. Demand that it be printed anew, and do so loudly.
i think the author did a great job distilling lofty scientific principles and presented them cohesively, but i was disapointed with Casti's chapter summaries and his presentation of his own views on each subject (which seemed arbitrary at best). I read all the way through hoping that his final conclusions would tie the entire collection of essays together in a way that left me with more knowledge than i came to the book with, but his entire message can be summed up as "interdisciplinary science is good science." not the epiphany i was hoping for.
I realize it's a little old at this point, but I think it's still one of the best books I've read on the subject of scientific frontiers. Anyone who wants to have an informed opinion on a range of subjects, from the possibility of alien intelligence to quantum mechanics, should check this out.
ISBN= 0380711656 John L. Casti This book was an assignment for my first research class at NOVA Southeastern University in early 2006. It is a long book and difficult to follow in parts (for me). It was very scientific and dealt with a number of very hypothetical and recondite topics. If I had to distill the point of the book into one sentence, I would say that it makes the point that science is tentative. Science is always changing and is never static. Whereas pseudoscience or religion can be static true science is dynamic. Casti makes the point that science is constantly being challenged. The book is written in a format of a courtroom with legal cases coming before it. Each issue before the court has a prosecutor and a defense and much evidence is presented on either side. The reader looks at the empirical value of this evidence and the author helps the reader by translating much of the science into everyday terms. The author uses chapter 1 to go into a long and interesting description of how science evolved over the years and the key players that contributed to it over time. I summarize the content of chapter 1 with the following points:
• Scientific standards are set by the scientific community – some get a Nobel prize – some get nothing • Does better science get better results verses the virtual knowledge of the universe? • Science includes facts and theories explaining them with a particular approach – scientific method. • The public sees science as stuff going on with scientists – basically an accumulation of facts. • Science is really about understanding – not always finding answers to practical questions. • Research is about ideas, ideology has no role. • Observation of facts Hypothesis Experiments Laws Theory • Science is repeatable – verified by peer review • Myths are attempts to explain the universe – Religion and science often at odds • Aristotle deductive theory Why is the sky blue? Start with premise fire,water,earth,air • Bacon Induction conclusions are drawn on observations • Galileo came up with controlled experiments / hold the constants • Newton put things in a mathematical format • Facts are not so important – they must be joined to form relations e.g. Pressure-volume • Realists – there is objective reality / Instrumentalism – theories are not true or false • Relativism – The truth changes • One piece of non-supporting data can kill a hypothesis – battle of science and pseudoscience • Perspective is important – (what you see is determined by who you are) • So many scientists so many perspectives no real need for a complete perspective – overall map • Einstein – it is all relative • Popper – Test and retest – science continuously re-evaluates. • Pseudoscience – outmoded theories – myths – seeking myths – casual approach – no revision – literal • In the long run the untruths are weeded out Science is tentative.
The remaining chapters are dominated with the discussion of the following topics: 1) The start of life on earth. 2) Human behavior and how genes and environment affect behavior. 3) Speech the result of overall development or the result of a special “organ” in the brain 4) Digital computers can think like a human 5) There are other intelligent beings in the universe 6) There is no reality without observation.
Then the author makes a judgment on each of the cases and how he thinks the evidence stacks up. Finally Casti gives the reader his opinion of who “won” the case and why. The book is very informative and is very deep and comprehensive. Casti is a bit of a ‘wise guy’ and seems to enjoy poking some fun at everything and everyone. Keep a dictionary nearby when reading it. The author is exceedingly logical and very intelligent. If you are not a scientist you will learn a lot about science. If you are you will be able to organize your thoughts and knowledge better. In either case you will have an appreciation for the eclectic nature of research and the parochial nature of pseudoscience.
Although this was well written, in prose length and style, and topic depth and breadth (some relatively complex science pitched at an appropriate level for the casual reader), most of the detail in the individual themes covered are now quite dated & the science has moved on. I knew that was a risk in buying this, but what intrigued me the most was the intended critical approach to scientific theory. Where there are competing theories, how does one evaluate the arguments? how to make a decision as to which could be the most correct? is a decision required? how does the lack of consensus in knowledge affect our world, how we behave, and how we move forward? These were the sort of questions I thought the book would cover, and I was a little disappointed, as the decision making sections were short, and a detailed approach wasn’t applied (but of course it doesn’t always need to be, e.g. if there are large distinctions in the quality of the arguments and the decision is easy). In the style of a mock “courtroom” with prosecution and defense, the six chapters covered:
The origins of life - life originated on earth / life originated elsewhere.
Human behaviour – it’s mainly dictated by the genes / it’s primarily environmental (blank slate).
Language acquisition – there is an innate language instinct (Chomsky/Fodor) / language is primarily through learning and open to high level of forms (e.g. Sapir-Whorf)
Artificial Intelligence - computers have the potential to think (e.g. Dennett) or cannot think (e.g. Searle)
Extraterrestrial Intelligence – it exists / it does not exist
Objective reality - there is no objective observer independent reality / single observer independent reality may exist (both sides from a scientific rather than philosophic arguments, mainly covering quantum theories).
I can imagine that this was an enlightening read a couple of decades ago, but if you wanted to learn more about these topics, then there’s countless books published more recently with more up to date research. Except perhaps extraterrestrial intelligence, which seems to have been “parked” for some time now given the cost of infrastructure to research it and the incredibly high chance of nil outcome. The human behaviour nature vs nurture debate hasn’t cooled down either, but fortunately there’s a growing acceptance/understanding that these are utterly intertwined and neither is solely deterministic. I’ll need to find some other books covering the philosophy of science. And overall, I probably shouldn’t have persevered to the end with this one.
Purdy old book that was on my list because when I lived on 275 L St the odd neighbor in the apartment next door gave it to me. Finally read it 10 years later. Still fun science stuff to read! Liked chapter one and the chapters about AI, ET, reality, and language. It would be cool if there was an updated version and I’m sure there already is. Should’ve read that! Lots of nerd stuff. I guess that AI can think now and objective reality may not be real. That’s real cool. Really!
Fascinating, but now want to know what breakthroughs have occurred in the past 30 years on these subjects. I just retired and thrilled to be finally getting to the books waiting for me to read ... can’t believe how long I’ve had this! I see there was a sequel, Paradigms Regained, but it is now 20 years old. Hoping for another update !
Mind-blowing explorations into questions of science that our minds may never be able to answer: How real is the real world? Do ETs exist? How did life on earth originate? Can we build an AI that thinks like a human? Is the capacity for language innate or learned? (Chomsky answered that one.) You are the jury in deciding yes, no, or "not proven".
This is a book written by a smart, literate and inquisitive man. The fact that he is a mathematics professor (which is not truly a topic covered in this volume) gives it a certain "balance" that would not be present if he was a biologist or chemist or physicist. Mr. Casti is not only bright and clearly interested in lots of things, but he has a clarity of thinking and writing that shows in this work.
(FYI - He has several other books out mostly in or overlapping his professional area and work. I have not read any of these, but some of the books seem very interesting to me.)
His premise of setting up each chapter (topic) as a court case with prosecution, defense, and Casti being judge at the end is "cute", but less than thrilling. If he had actually laid out the arguments a bit more formally and structured how the various parties were introduced better, I think that I would have rated the book a "5". What I found was that he jumped from one element to another almost without discipline (my opinion, possibly not shared by other readers.) The facts/opinions were there, but at time i found it hard to follow which point he was attempting to support.
Overall, I think this was a tour-de-force in its time. But this book was published in 1989 so the science used in many of the arguments is dated. If you read it knowing full well that this is the case (and make allowance for it) I think you will be surprised, pleased and intrigued by his topics and presentations.
Note: I picked this volume up because I had run across a later, follow-up to it (Paradigms Regained) which was published 11 years later. Since I knew that the later book built on the earlier, I restrained myself enough to get and read this book first. I am currently working my way through the later one.
Paradigms Lost explores the philosophy and practice of science through a series of ever-more-difficult sample cases taken from real, contemporary scientific disciplines. You can read it, and enjoy it, solely for its in-depth background and analysis of the disciplines that it samples. But Casti is really pursuing something more. The book asks, "What is science, ideally and in practice?" and "What, if anything, makes science a better way to understand the world than the alternatives?" For the first couple of cases in the book, the answers to these questions are obvious. But by the last cases, you're not so sure if there is any real difference between science and unsupported speculation.
The first real science book I ever read, this book BLASTED my mind open. It showed me that things I thought were unknowable, in the realm of gods and mythology and so not worth thinking about were actually able to be studied using scientific methods. It is arranged as a series of "court cases" each with a plaintiff and defender showing 2 (or more really) sides of topics such as the origin of life, origin of Human language, whether aliens exist, etc. A great book for someone looking to start expanding their scientific knowledge. It's from like 1989, so it's a bit dated, but still very relevant and will provide an excellent foundation.
Readability 6. Rating 8. Date estimated. An outstanding presentation of a number of the key scientific issues of our time. Content, language, and presentation were all extremely well-handled. A mind-stretcher, but not inaccessible.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
Fascinating review of 5 big big questions such as the origin of life and the multi verse. Easier to read than the sequel. The set up as a court with arguments on both sides of an argument and a final judgement make it a fun read.