Aggressor

Aggressor #1

by F.X. Holden

BookLife April 2023 Editor's Pick.

It is April 1 2038. Day 60 of China's blockade of the rebel island of Taiwan. The US government has agreed to provide Taiwan with a weapons system so advanced, it can disrupt the balance of power in the region. But what pilot would be crazy enough to run the Chinese blockade to deliver it? AGGRESSOR is the first novel in a new series that looks at the conflict that could spark the next World War, through the eyes of soldiers, sailors, civilians and aviators on all sides. Featuring technologies that are on the drawing board today and could be fielded in the near future, AGGRESSOR is the page turning military technothriller you have been waiting for!

Genres: Military Fiction, Thriller, Science Fiction, Fiction, Action

556 pages, Kindle Edition

Published April 1, 2023

About the author

FX Holden writes action thrillers (The 'Aggressor' and 'Future War' Series) and Science Fiction (The 'Coruscant' and 'Red Legion' Series). He has been awarded two US Publishers' Weekly Stars (the Michelin Star of publishing), the US Readers' Favorite award for Best Political Thriller (twice, including in 2025), and the US Book Excellence award for Best Military Fiction!

FX Holden is a pen name for author Tim (TJ) Slee, winner of the HarperCollins Banjo Prize for Australian fiction and the US Publishers Weekly BookLife Prize for Fiction.

Reviews

[Dragos Macelaru · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent China-West war scenario

Masterful delivery of a credible current times war scenario including Chinese government politics and mindset and modern weaponry. I'm not sure the American government mindset is right.

[Greg Hollingsworth · Rating 5 out of 5]

From the front cover to the end pages, Holden has produced another superb military action novel, a worthy successor to his Future War series. I thoroughly enjoyed it and have already pre-ordered the next in the series, Beachhead. Holden's understanding of the geopolitical issues involved in the China-Taiwan dispute and the nuances of the stances of the parties involved plays well into the fictional scenario he thrusts Bunny O'Hare into. I recommend Agressor to any fans of military fiction.

[Chance · Rating 4 out of 5]

shame she never got to see the playboy bunny

FX Holden expanded war series gos head to head with China in it’s new sets intrey from the introduction of new chacthers and a few who haven’t been seen in a couple of books, but who’s actions will become the deciders in given Taiwan time to prepare for a naval, air, and ground war.

The story like the last few books follows Ace pilot O’Hare in the possible prelude to WW3 but like always even when everyone else is out to get her 20 years of flight avionics prove all there plans fruitless

[Mountainhombre · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fast-paced, with tons of action and suspense.

While characterizations are not the strong point of Mr. Holden's novels, I was really pleased to get some of the backstory of Bunny O'Hare's life. It goes a long way to explaining her personality.

I can't wait to read the next in the series when it is available.

[John Verrier · Rating 5 out of 5]

FX Holden just keeps getting better and better

I’m amazed at FX Holden’s imagination capacity.
It’s a fantastic read, including going through Bunny O’Hares history with her abusive uncle. She’s my hero

[Oswaldo Martinez · Rating 5 out of 5]

magnificent.

The best I've read in a long time, I stayed with the book until I finished it.

now waiting for the second part

[F.X. Holden · Rating 5 out of 5]

Not a review, since I am the author! Think of this as an 'author note'...

How did Aggressor come to be?

Western military strategists and think tanks have spent a lot of resources war-gaming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And, we know from leaked reports, so have Chinese planners. In preparing to write this novel I reviewed every publicly available war game readout and they generally all reach the same conclusion: if China attempts to invade Taiwan, a long and ruinous war will result. In these war games, China usually manages to get ground and airborne forces across the Taiwan Strait and achieve a foothold on the island, but once the US and allies pile in, Chinese troops are either limited to their beachhead or pushed back into the sea.

In the process, both the US and China lose one or more aircraft carriers, hundreds of ships and aircraft, tens of thousands of soldiers. The war pulls in regional powers, rocks the global economy and risks escalating into a nuclear confrontation.

The assumptions used in almost all these war games are critically flawed, and I became so frustrated at this that the AGGRESSOR series is my personal attempt to show what could happen if we use an alternative set of assumptions to those that have become the “accepted wisdom.” That “wisdom” is summed up in the introduction to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Taiwan war game, which looked at 25 sets of assumptions, nearly all of them assuming Chinese superiority and incompetence in the Taiwanese military. As the CSIS introduction says: “The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities. Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island. Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian roll-on, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads.”

Let’s look at the most used and typically flawed assumptions from a range of war games:

1) China takes Taiwan and Western powers “by surprise” with a “lightning attack.” Usually this assumption runs like this: China has positioned invasion forces along the coast opposite Taiwan for military exercises intended to intimidate Taiwan and its allies. But, in a bewildering leap of logic, an opening air and missile attack destroys most of Taiwan’s air force and navy, leading to a “lightning invasion,” which manages to land tens of thousands of troops on beaches on Taiwan. Even more unbelievably, this lightning attack is often assumed to take place after China has already begun an economic blockade of air and sea traffic around Taiwan in which it has moved considerable naval and air assets into the area around Taiwan without any military reaction from Taiwan or its allies.

The experience of the Russian invasion of Ukraine illustrates the massive flaws in these assumptions. Russia telegraphed its invasion of Ukraine well ahead of time and the US administration called out the invasion loudly and publicly for weeks, if not months, before the first Russian paratroopers landed on Ukrainian soil. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would completely dwarf the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the signs would be evident months in advance.
Firstly, China would need to mass hundreds of thousands of troops, tens of thousands of transport ships, reposition its air force and send hundreds of naval vessels into the Taiwan Strait to achieve an invasion. The 2022 leaked report of an invasion rehearsal conducted by military and civilian authorities in the “Southern War Zone of the PLA Guangdong Province” showed that, for the first phase of the invasion, China’s Eastern and Southern Theater Command planned to mobilize 300,000 combat troops and 140,000 support personnel, 953 ships of various types and 1,653 drones. The drone supply was flagged as a critical issue, with only 2,000 “pieces of high-tech equipment,” 480 drones and 70 unmanned boats available. The conclusion was that 90 civilian industrial facilities would need to be militarized to produce the necessary drones.

To move this massive force would require the support of 20 airports and docks, six repair and shipbuilding factories, 14 emergency transfer centers and forward positioning of resources such as grain depots, hospitals, blood stations and fuel and oil depots. To support logistics above what it had available itself, the military would need to requisition 10,000-ton trains with 588 train carriages, 64 ships, 38 aircraft, and civil buildings to house personnel.
The invasion fleet itself would comprise no fewer than 365 ships, which would need to be “weaponized” within 45 days of the invasion order being issued. But only 72 ships were already prepared, meaning the rest would have to be found, transported and made ready. Chinese authorities identified 90 capable ship repair and construction enterprises in the whole Eastern Command district but reported that only 280 ships could be “weaponized” within the 45-day warning timeframe, much less than the 365 ships needed. This effort alone would therefore take several weeks!

A huge security operation would be initiated involving 26,000 armed police and 7,000 armed militia in 17 cities “utilizing the combined power of the Chinese Communist party, government, military, police and civil as a whole, to help guard 61 important military targets and 276 important civilian targets.” It was acknowledged in this leaked transcript that current personnel levels would be inadequate to meet these demands and a massive mobilization program would be needed in advance. Of particular concern was the risk of foreign-influenced civil unrest in the “megacities” of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, so foreigners would be rounded up and ejected.
No “military exercises” can mask these kind of preparations. And yet so many of these war games assume that all the preparations flagged above are going to somehow take place under the noses of the intelligence services of Taiwan, the US and its allies and they are going to be “taken with their pants down.”

Sorry, not a chance.

2) Assumption two in almost all these war games is that Taiwan and its allies will mysteriously take no preemptive military action to thwart an invasion but will instead just build up their defenses (usually inadequately) and wait for the invasion to start. The US and allies might increase surveillance and move one or more submarines or aircraft carrier strike groups into the theatre, but little more. It would therefore take days or even weeks for Taiwan’s allies to come to its aid, during which Chinese forces would decimate Taiwan’s defenses and get a foothold on Taiwan itself.
There are so many things wrong with these assumptions too. Remember the Chinese rehearsal allowed a 45 day ‘war alert’ in which to get forces ready for an invasion. This alert state would be evident to every Western intelligence service. Why then do none of these war games assume that the US administration of the time, and its allies, might make a preemptive strike against Chinese invasion forces? In fictional accounts of this potential conflict, the US administration is often portrayed as weak, docile and incompetent.

In AGGRESSOR I make the opposite and, I believe, more realistic assumption—that a US administration, not asleep at the wheel, has seen war coming and prepared for it. That it has put assets into the theatre in expectation of Chinese aggression, conducted exercises of its own intended to ensure those assets—from several allied nations—are trained, available and ready. And that the administration has both the means and the will to take preemptive action to prevent a Chinese invasion force from even leaving Chinese shores. In AGGRESSOR I assume a US administration that might keep the door to peace open but that will be prepared for war.

3) Assumption number three is that China’s strategic missile and air forces will decimate Taiwanese defenses, leaving it wide open to invasion before Taiwan’s allies can rouse themselves from their sleep and come to the island’s aid.

Sorry, China will not decimate Taiwan’s air defenses and achieve total superiority in days. China has formidable missile forces and a numerically superior air force compared with Taiwan. The war gamers who propose this assumption, however, overlook every lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where even a year after the invasion, the numerically vastly superior Russian Aerospace Force was unable to achieve anything approaching air superiority over Ukraine. Instead, it was so humiliated by losses in the first months of war that it was banned by its President from participating in the usual Victory Day flyover. After a year of war it was visually confirmed to have lost more than 300 frontline aircraft, versus 129 lost by Ukraine.

The reason? Modern anti-aircraft systems are highly effective against fourth-generation aircraft (which comprise the bulk of China’s air forces) and are very difficult to degrade.
Ukraine fielded Russian-made, high-altitude S-300 surface-to-air missile defenses, which Russian anti-radar missiles proved unable to destroy, and which prevented high-flying Russian aircraft from entering Ukrainian airspace. These were supplied with Patriot and NASAMs systems, which made the skies over Ukraine even more lethal. In addition, a proliferation of low-altitude anti-air cannon, man-portable missiles and radar-guided autocannons prevented Russian ground attack helicopters and jets from operating at low level, reducing their ability to provide close air support to Russian troops.

Yet for some reason, in Taiwan war games, the assumption is that, unlike the combat-tested Russian Air Force, the untested Chinese air force will somehow dominate the skies over a Taiwanese enemy armed with the latest in Western-made ground-to-air missile and radar-guided cannon defenses, including long-range Patriot and medium-range NASAMs Missile Batteries!
True, Taiwan has no fifth-generation stealth aircraft, and China will have a limited number of these available. Chinese stealth fighters can probably be used to launch stand-off attacks against Taiwan with near impunity. But China has no stealth ground attack aircraft and will not have in the foreseeable future. The same tactics that turned Ukraine into a porcupine the Russian Air Force could not attack would have exactly the same effect on Chinese air forces over Taiwan.

Chinese missiles would rain down on Taiwanese airfields, but the idea Taiwan’s air force and air defenses would be wiped out in this initial attack is highly suspect. Taiwanese defense planners are not idiots who, with an invasion imminent, will stupidly leave precious military aircraft parked out in the open for China to destroy. Taiwan has already invested heavily in underground storage and hangars for its air force and supporting logistics, burying these facilities deep in the mountain ranges that run down the middle of the island. There will be no “surprise missile strike” by China that wipes out half of the Taiwanese Air Force in a single night, allowing China to sail its ships and land its paratroops without aerial or naval interdiction. (If anything, it is US aircraft based on Guam and in Japan that are at greatest risk from Chinese missile strikes.)

Instead, it is highly likely that, just like Russia’s air force, China’s air force is relegated to launching standoff missile attacks from within Chinese airspace on the other side of the Taiwan Strait, and its main weapon of choice for trying to degrade Taiwanese anti-air and anti-ship defenses will be cruise and ballistic missile attacks, which Taiwan will be well prepared to counter. Many Chinese missiles will get through, of course, and the military and civilian toll will be terrible, but as we have seen in Ukraine, these sorts of attacks alone cannot win wars.

4) Certain powerful weapons systems are not available to the US side but are available to China.
In this leap of think-tank war-gaming logic, the Western technological advantage in weapons systems is deliberately taken away, so that the battle for Taiwan becomes one of quantity, not quality, thus favoring China again. In the CSIS war game the US side was denied the use of the JASSM missile system, probably the most potent cruise missile in the US armory of the future. This is not some kind of prototype “future weapon”; more than 2,000 have already been delivered to the USAF. Yet its use was denied to the blue side in the CSIS war game. And yet in the CSIS wargame the Chinese were allowed the use of their hypersonic carrier-killing ballistic missiles - because allowing the US side to use JASSM would have tipped the balance of power too far in favor of blue.
Ya think? Just like HIMARS tipped the balance of the ground war against Russia in favor of Ukraine? Advanced weapons systems impact the outcome of wars. Excluding them from war games to give the adversary a chance is nonsensical. Enough said.

5) Assumption five is that China will get troops ashore, create a foothold and may even break out of its beachhead to attack targets in inland Taiwan. But by the time it does, Taiwan’s allies will arrive to rescue it and Chinese troops will not make or take Taipei. They will either be pushed back to their beachhead or be forced to withdraw entirely.

This assumption again presumes no preemptive action by the US or Taiwan, but even allowing that, just how is China supposed to land anything except a token force on Taiwan’s coasts? Sufficient airborne troops will not exist to support a purely airborne invasion, and as already discussed, China will not have the air superiority allowing it to insert a meaningful paratroop force.
Since Taiwan’s air and missile forces will not have destroyed them all, the motley fleet of “weaponized” Chinese vessels and their escorts trying to ferry troops across the Strait would be attacked as they are forming up and from the moment they came within range of Taiwan’s anti-ship missile defenses. Let’s assume some of these missile defenses have been degraded by Chinese precision missile strikes. Under cover of China’s Type 055 missile destroyers and fighter jets, let us also assume that some of the Chinese landing ships make it to the Taiwanese coast.

Taiwan is not Ukraine, with thousands of miles of border through which an enemy can invade. There are only a dozen possible landing sites for Chinese ground troops, and these will be fortified with anti-air and anti-ship missile defenses, and physical defenses in depth. Taiwanese military planners would have weeks of warning of an impending invasion, and ground defenses would be prepared, thousands of troops dug in near these landing zones, artillery ranged. Any ships that managed to approach the shore, any troops that managed to make landfall, would be hammered mercilessly with massed artillery and Taiwanese close air support because China’s air force will not have air superiority.

And then, far sooner than most war game planners allow, US and allied forces would join the counter-offensive against China’s navy, air and land forces. Hundreds of aircraft flying from Japan and the Philippines, and off the decks of US carriers far out in the Philippine Sea to the east, would fly around-the-clock sorties against any Chinese troops who made it ashore. US and allied naval vessels and submarines would launch hundreds of cruise missiles at Chinese targets, initially those trying to reach Taiwan, but then inevitably also at logistics and supply nodes up and down the Chinese east coast.

At this point, the paper-thin assumptions of most war gamers become irrelevant since the war would enter a completely different and much less predictable phase. Would China withdraw to lick its wounds? Would it have the resources for a new offensive? Would it draw on support from allies of its own—Russia, Iran, North Korea—to place political or military pressure on Taiwan and its allies? Would China open a new front elsewhere in an attempt to split the focus and resolve of the US and its allies? Or would the US open a new front to draw Chinese focus away from Taiwan?
These questions and more will be explored in the coming volumes of the AGGRESSOR series!
In the writing of AGGRESSOR I am deeply indebted to the strong beta reading team which came together to advise on the manuscript. Among the team were current and former service personnel from the armies, navies, Marines, air forces and intelligence services of the US, UK, France, Australia, India and Israel. If you find the novel authentic, it is thanks to them. Any technical errors you might find are entirely mine!

And finally a word of thanks to my best mate and long-suffering wife, Lise, who had to sacrifice a couple of weeks of summer holidays so I could get this novel started.
Now, on to the next novel in the AGGRESSOR series, ‘BEACHHEAD,’ which is coming summer 2023 and can be preordered today!

FX Holden
Copenhagen, April 2023

[Nigel Brand · Rating 5 out of 5]

Brilliant, but terrifying

FX Holden has nailed it again. In this mid 2030s tale of Chinese adventurism in North Asia he displays his extraordinary knowledge of actual and plausible future technology, through the eyes of Australian flier Karen “Bunny” O’Hare.

Unlike most Western contemporary authors his Chinese and Western characters are conflicted, and have occasional self-doubts and distinctly modern attitudes. O’Hare is one of the most entertaining, complex characters in modern fiction. Nail biting doesn’t begin to describe the action, and Holden weaves the strands skilfully and with many fewer scene changes than some recent authors.

I read the final half of this book in a single evening. I’ve enjoyed all of the author’s previous books and this one is an excellent new course.

[Justin · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book came up in my Prime Reading feed and decided to rent it. It turns out while this is book 1 in the Aggressor series, it is actually a continuation of his previous series. I found out when it refers to the events of "Pegasa". That meant looking up that book and that previous series. And it turns out Karen "Bunny" O'Hare also appears into that series. Thus, fair warning, it's not a brand new series.

As for the plot, since it is day 60 of the PRC blockade of Taiwan, you have to wonder what happened on days 1-59. So far, Taiwan, and the US are reacting to Chinese moves. This is one of those cases of just how much China and the West will go to war over Taiwan. If China widens the conflict, it's gambling that the global economy will tank and the only survivors are the Chinese. But that also invites Philippines and Vietnam into the conflict. The Vietnamese have just as long memory of Chinese imperialism and if goaded, Hainan base is well within Vietnamese submarines.

I was pretty hooked with this book. The author's notes at the back was super interesting since it debunks some of the assumptions made by certain think tanks and planners.

[Robert E Henkin · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great Military

If you like military procedurals this a great read. It seems long but reads easily. You don’t have to know what each weapon is because the author explains them. If they all exist today, it is bit scary, but the action takes place in the future. There is minimal depth to almost all the characters except for the main ones where we get a bit more. We learn more about the main character than we knew from previous books and it explains her actions better to know her. Enjoyable read for those who like weapons, weapon systems and those who drive them.

[Frank J. · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent characters. Excellent technology.

In the spirit of Tom Clancy! Well done. An engaging fast paced story. I’m very techy, retired military, and found very little to quibble with. ( Okay, where did the Chinese get all that bandwidth? The carrier was an electronic Christmas Tree to any elint satellite!)
The different cultural approaches to AI are interesting.
Fast paced. At times a little hokey (The “Spy Who Hated Me “bit) but engaging. Highly recommended for any fan of a good techno-thriller.

[Ross Jernigan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Surprisingly good

I look for detail accuracy in techno/military thrillers. If it's lacking it makes for a harder read because of the distractions. This one didn't get everything right but most of the detail was pretty accurate. I liked the mix of big picture strategy, on the ground allied war fighters and aggressor war fighters. The shifts in view did a good job of showing both the chaos and control and fear that is modern warfare.

[Susan Murray]

Aggressor book 1

An up to date war story about China blockading Taiwan to starve the people into submission.
The west tries to fly in humanitarian supply planes which are attacked prior to even getting in disputed air space.
The battles are largely fought with armed drones on China’s side. The USA is using piloted planes.
Who will prevail.
Great read.

[Andrew Graham · Rating 5 out of 5]

Gripping from start to finish.

Yet again the main character Bunny O,Hare finds herself in a situation that sees her having to fight for her life amidst an on going situation between China and Taiwan that escalates into a war between China,Taiwan and the US and her allies with deadly consequences for all involved.

[S.David Long · Rating 5 out of 5]

Riveting

From page one to the very last page, Aggressor did not disappoint. The action never stopped and it was very believable. The characters on both sides were also believable and well developed. If you are into WW III type situations, this book is a must read. My next move is to open book 2 to see how the fight for Taiwan continues.

[Michael R. Brooks · Rating 4 out of 5]

Pretty Good Read

As is usual for this generation of writers they do good with tech they know and understand well, but not so well with older tech that they have never used or do not understand. It would be good if they would study their older tech before they try and write about it

[Herbert Scott Smith · Rating 4 out of 5]

China vs Taiwan / Aggressors

First part of book confusing and full of details unable to understand. I am,glad I read the anartica book first so I understood the Aggressor unit and the characters. Toward middle of book the pieces began to fall in place. Having been on Taiwan as a military member 40+ years ago helped me understand the conditions better.

[Kevin O'Brien · Rating 5 out of 5]

FX Holden's best yet

Fast-paced and gripping, this latest from the author is an exciting read. Each of Holden's works is an improvement on the previous with believable characters in challenging circumstances. Highly recommended!

[Ajitabh Pandey · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thrilling

A very fast-paced, no nonsense thriller. A lot of technology and action, none of which seems unrealistic now, especially after advancement and general availability of generative AIs like Chat GPT.
Looking forward to the launch of next book in the series.

[Shelby Smith · Rating 5 out of 5]

better than you think.

This author really knows his military actions. The personal views he covers from both sides of the conflict make this book unput-downable.
Can’t wait to read the next one.

[Robert Oberlender · Rating 5 out of 5]

Burning through the pages

If you want fast, intriguing action, this is it. A war in the near future with very believable prophecy. My only concern is that we are really working on the tech involved. But this is just a story. Or is it?

[Tom Anderson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Another terrific story of Bunny Share at war.

The author has a real grasp of combat in the air and at sea. Believable and all too probable stories of war in the realm of AI. Highly recommend anything written by FX Holden.

[Beth Perry · Rating 5 out of 5]

Food for thought

Very compelling scenarios. Capable operators on both sides of the fence. Possible leak? Possible sleepers? How do the Chinese know way ahead of the action who's going to be where? Looks to be a fantastic series!

[david rennell · Rating 5 out of 5]

Unbelievably Realistic

One day of the best “What If” books I’ve ever read. Much of the technical aspects of this new modern warfare are not that far fetched. Quite a startling glimpse into not so distant future

[Anthony W Ditto · Rating 5 out of 5]

Gripping, with non stop action and intrigue!

This book is hard to put down! The action and back stories keep you engaged and on the edge of your seat! If you like a fast paced thriller, then you’ve found it!

[Doc Tisch · Rating 5 out of 5]

Awesome Series

I just started this series of books and it is awesome! The main character being an Aussie and female brings a whole new perspective to fighting the good fight regardless!

[Markus · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent read. Pageturner. Techthriller. I love this stuff so much!!!

[Dan · Rating 5 out of 5]

High tech thriller taken from the news of today - Not unlike an early Tom Clancy. Cannot wait for the next installment

[Eddie R · Rating 5 out of 5]

Spellbinding

Wow! Real life faded into background. I couldn’t put the book down. Well researched. I am eager to read the rest of the series.

[Mike · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very fast-paced thriller. Good start to a new series!