لماذا تعتمد على الحظ ؟ فن وعلم اتخاذ القرارات الصائبة Why Depend on Luck ?

by هارولد دبليو لويس

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Genres: Psychology, Self Help, Nonfiction, Mathematics

242 pages, Paperback

First published April 15, 1997

Reviews

[Anthony · Rating 2 out of 5]

Interesting topic. The author is very funny at times. The start is quite good, however, out of nowhere, it turns into a political rant.

[أخضر أخضر · Rating 3 out of 5]

يحاول عالم الفزياء هارولد وضع قواعد تساعد الناس عند اتخاذهم لقراراتهم، فلا يعتمدون على الحظ ويتخذون قرارات عشوائية عند حل مشكلاتهم الفردية أو مشكلاتهم مع الأخرين، أيضا يحاول توضيح كيف اتخذت الحكومات القرارات الخاصة مما يجعل الناس أكثر إدراكًا لأوضاع بلادهم الساسية.
يزيد من صعوبة الكتاب اعتماد الكاتب على قوانين الرياضيات، وعرض الحالات التي يحاول الكاتب إيضاحها مثل القمار واستثمارات البورصة وسياسات الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، تكون غير واضحة مما يعيق وصول أفكار الكاتب بشكل سلس.

[Lily · Rating 2 out of 5]

الوصف مشوق والبداية جيدة لكن بعد ذلك أصبح ممل جداً! قرأت نصفه وأكتفي بهذا القدر.



اقتباسات:

- ما نعنيه بالقرار الصائب هو أنه قرار يمثل أفضل ما يمكن أن نفعله في ظل ما نعرفه في ذلك الوقت، فإذا بذلنا أقصى ما في وسعنا، وكان تفكيرنا عقلانياً، فسنكون قد فعلنا كل ما هو متوقع منا، وما يقع خارج نطاق سيطرتنا لا حيلة لنا فيه.

- يزعم أن ليو دورتشر قال إن المرء لن ينال مراده بطيبة قلبه ونبل أخلاقه مع الآخرين.

- في أغلب الأحيان نحن نبالغ في توقعنا للمكسب، وكذلك في خوفنا من الخسارة؛ مما يؤثر سلباً على عملية صنع القرار المتوازن.

- كلما ازدادت درايتك بالعالم الذي تعيش فيه، أصبحت حياتك أكثر ثراءً وإرضاءً لك، وصرت أنت أكثر فاعليةً في كل شيء تؤديه.

- قال أحدهم ذات مرة إن بمقدورنا فهم الحياة إذا نظرنا إلى الماضي، لكن -لسوء الحظ- علينا أن نعيشها في المستقبل.

[Afaf Ridaoui · Rating 2 out of 5]

حشو في حشو وبعض كلمات علم الاحصاء والاحتمالات في تقاطع مع اتخاذنا نحن البشر للقرارات.

لربما لو قلل بعض الشيء من كثرة الكلام والأرقام التي لا فائدة لها ومجرد حشو لإكثار عدد الصفحات وحتى يبدو كلامه مبنيا على علم رياضي لكان أفضل.

[Garrett Burnett · Rating 2 out of 5]

This was a good introduction to economic concepts and game theory. Lewis uses interesting examples to explain the power and limitations of probability and other ideas.

[Hamid · Rating 3 out of 5]

قديم نوعا ما ، لكنه مفيد . يقدم نصائح جيدة لكيفية اتحاد القرار .

[Sam Anderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

We call heads. When people have to decide between two things, they might do a coin flip. This involves assigning options to the sides of a coin, flicking it into the air, and then going with the option that lands face up. The practice has inspired the metaphorical coin flip, associated with outcomes based on chance

flip a coin

[Hussein Abdelsalam · Rating 2 out of 5]

لطالما احببت تلك النوعية من الكتب التي توضخ نظريات صنع القرار بشكل عميق وليس سطحيا ، على الرغم من شعوري ببعض التعقيد اثناء القراءة ولكن هناك يعض المفاهم اتضحت لي خلال قراءة هذا الكتاب
اعيب على الكاتب ادخال بعض اراءه السياسية في الكتاب وعدم تركيزه الكامل على نقاط صنع القرار .

[Teemu · Rating 4 out of 5]

Jos hyppää USA:n politiikkaa käsittelevät osiot yli, on loput kirjasta ihan mielenkiintoista luettavaa.

Enimmäkseen aloittelijatason asiaa todennäköisyyksistä päätöksenteossa, mutta mukana monia esimerkkejä ja sovelluskohteita jotka oli itselle uusia.

[Nathan Albright · Rating 4 out of 5]

In many ways, this book is both a sophisticated and somewhat intentionally brief discussion of decision-making from the perspective of a witty physicist by training who laments the fear of mathematics in the general population. Correctly, the author notes that anyone reading this book, who must have an interest in game theory and mathematics from at least the perspective of interest [1]. The author notes, in one of his many sarcastic asides, that anyone reading this book would be more sophisticated than the average investor in the stock market, and presumably would be too sophisticated to sit on a modern jury. Although the book is entertaining to read, it suffers from being written by someone with a clear elitist bias, both in his hostility to religious beliefs, which is made clear towards the closing of his book, and in his inherent mistrust of the wide scope of authority granted to voters whom he considers to be unintelligent and unworthy of judging in matters of importance relating to principles of math and science, and similarly mistrustful of their ability to take him and his arguments seriously. Despite the witty and sophisticated tone of writing, there is in this book a real contempt for the majority of people who in the author's eyes are both ignorant of and contemptuous of sound mathematical reasoning.

In terms of its contents, the book consists of short chapters that deal with entertaining and wide-ranging aspects of practical mathematics, pointing out that in many cases strategy depends on what is in the mind of other people, something about which it is sometimes impossible to know for certain, and what ends one is aiming at, which is not always known or recognized from the outset. So, after an introduction the author spends 23 chapters discussing such matters as dating strategy, probability, utility functions, stability, the prisoner's dilemma, competitive games, paradoxes, rankings, voting, impossibility, protecting the future, public decisions, apportionment of seats for the House of Representatives, Lanchester's law for war, fluctuation and regression to the mean, investing, gambling, sports (mostly baseball), the story "The Lady Or the Tiger?" and its sequel [2], juries and laws, and a short conclusion. Throughout the author mixes witty and sophisticated humor, mocking of California law and its foibles, a discussion of certain fundamental biases in how people behave, a certain moral indignation at the way most people behave and the fact that a rigorous explanation of probability is considered to be too sophisticated for ordinary business in sports and the legal system.

Yet, at the end of the day, the book itself provides several reasons why few people appreciate mathematics. There is an understanding, however accurate it is difficult to say, that mathematics is often an arcane study and that it is unnecessary and not useful to normal life. In point of fact, the author regularly makes his contempt of ordinary people well-known, and that gives an edge to his criticism of the lack of mathematical literacy among the general public. If the way that mathematics was presented to most people did not seem to alien, it is likely there would be less hostility to those who spend their lives toiling in the mathematical arts, who seek to provide evidence so that others may make wise decisions. This is, after all, my own particular profession. Those who are able to show themselves to be relatable to others need not find their knowledge of or interest in mathematics to be something that draws suspicion, but often a sense of relief that someone is willing to tackle the numbers for the benefit of everyone else. Yet this author cannot have his cake and eat it too--if he intended on helping to educating others about mathematical reasoning instead of complaining about it, he would need to write a book that is not full of witty contempt, and one that actually sought to explain the principles of mathematical reasoning to those who were not already in the know. As it is, this book is a missed opportunity, something that is appreciated as a wide-ranging and humorous tour of the mathematics as it relates to decision making in many fields of interest in contemporary society, but one that is mean-spirited to the person who for lack of interest in mathematics would never even consider reading the book in the first place.

[1] See, for example:

https://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress...

https://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress...

https://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress...

https://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress...

https://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress...

[2] http://www.imaginaryplanet.net/weblog...

[Alex · Rating 3 out of 5]

The author presents the material so everybody can understand it, but skips over any analytical treating of any decision making topic so that it is very difficult to actually implement any of the concepts he presents. I recommend looking for a more recent book about decision making if you're looking for one.

[Matthew Brown · Rating 3 out of 5]

Essentially an overview on decision making. It started with a "probability for dummies" in the first several chapters and was not very interesting. The later chapters about group decision making and government were really great.
I liked it enough to finish it but I wouldn't reccomend it to anyone unless you were really curious about decision making.