A Quantitative Failure

by Vincent James

A Quantitative Failure to Forecast the Economic Recession is about an innovative quantitative system that is based on the statistical principles of correlation; namely, the CET analysis program that was able to quantify specific stages that led towards the South African economic recession in 2008/2009. Important to note is that at the back end of all information that adds value there lies a system of analysis.The internet age has ushered in an explosion of data. The difficulty lies in making sense of all this data by transforming it into information. The integrity of a quantitative analysis system, is as good or bad as, its theoretical underpinnings. In this context it is important to highlight the Governor of South African Reserve Bank Tito “It is clear from our modelling exercise that growth will come down but does not expect South Africa to experience a recession.”Then Finance Minister Trevor “Technically, we not in a recession.”However, in May 2009, it was officially announced that South Africa was indeed in a recession.South African President at the time Thabo Mbeki belatedly stated “Experts failed to predict the financial crisis.”A Quantitative Failure to Forecast the Economic Recession emphasis is threefold, firstly statistical science and its relationship to the CET analysis program. Secondly, the application of the CET analysis program to horse racing - with winning tickets as evidence with respect to the relationship between the theory and practise. Lastly, by populating economic data into the CET analysis program the result being the ability to pinpoint the recessionary conditions before this economic reality was acknowledged.“Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” John Maynard Keynes

86 pages, Paperback

Published August 4, 2016