Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Shift

by David K. Foot, Daniel Stoffman

A Canadian Bestseller! Demographics is the key to understanding the past and forecasting the future. From financial planning to urban planning, Professor David Foot shows us how to track the trends that will have a profound impact upon our lives. The boomers, the busters, and the echo discover the nation's future - and yours - in demographics, the simple but highly potent tool for understanding the past and foretelling the future, by Canada's foremost expert. What are the best investments? Where are the new business opportunities? What will become of our cities? What are the prospects for real estate? The job market? Education? Health care? Foot and Stoffman provide answers in a book full of arresting insights and practical ideas.

Genres: Nonfiction, Business, Economics, Sociology

245 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 1996

Reviews

[Paula Dembeck · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book published in 1996 by a University of Toronto academic was one of the first to focus on the social changes brought on by shifts in a country’s demographic population. Foot believed you could predict two thirds of the changes in people’s personal behavior as well as societal trends and emerging economic shifts by examining these demographic trends. It must be remembered that this was a time before widespread computerization had invaded our workplaces, when the internet and electronic networks were still in their initial planning stages and few forecasting tools were available. Foot’s work on demographic trends gave Canadians a way to look at and draw conclusions about everything from real estate markets, to transit systems, grocery sales and school enrollments. If you could predict trends and potential problems, you could better prepare for the solutions.

We all know that as people grows older, they move into and out of stages in the life cycle that determine their attitudes, desires, job prospects and discretionary income. But each person, born at a particular point in time is part of a group or cohort of others born at that same time. They all experience their lives, society and the world at a particular point in the evolution of the world. People are already familiar with two of these groups: the “baby boomers”, born between 1947 and 1966 and the “depression kids” born in 1937. What Foot did was add to those groupings, identifying eight different cohorts existing in Canadian society from “the pre-World War I group” born in 1914 or earlier, to “the baby boom echo group”, born in 1980 or later, identifying their characteristics, the features of the society they grew into and the challenges they faced in the job market.

He then tracks a number of tends identified with each cohort and describes how these different groups demanded different products and services as they aged, devoting separate chapters to subject areas such as the real estate industry, the stock market, retail world, tourism, education, health care and jobs.

Most of the book is focused on the “baby boomers” born from 1947 to 1966 which represents one third of the Canadian population, but he also examines the cohorts that followed, “the baby bust” period from 1967 to 1979 and the “baby boon echo” group from 1980 on.

Foot makes a number of interesting forecasts while reminding readers not everything is predictable using demographic theory. Global competition and labour saving technology for example, will also have an impact. In the area of employment, he predicts there will be fewer jobs but more movement between jobs and a more flexible workforce. The numbers of part timers will increase, the work week will become shorter and more workers will opt for gradual retirement. He predicts the rise of the minivan, the move to more comfortable clothing, increases in liquor sales, the purchase of healthier higher quality food and the increasing popularity of classical music, theater, opera and travel. He warns about the increase in gambling as people have more discretionary income and predicts retirees with more free time available, will do more volunteering. Continuing education will become a growth industry as workers are required to keep current with jobs that are constantly changing. And there will be increasing pressure on the health care system as the growing number of the elderly with complex needs require care from an already burdened system.

Foot believes that understanding the demographic groups he identifies and the trends they elicit as each in those groups move through the life cycle, will help those responsible for planning for the future, always keeping in mind that demographic theory only predicts two thirds of what may happen. Still, understanding demographics can help Canadians reform the health care system, reconceptualize education, understand various fluctuations in the real estate market and transform workplaces.

Much of the content of this book is now dated. It is interesting to see which of his predictions came true and what he missed. But his identification of the demographic cohorts is still useful. For the time it was published, it proved to be a very helpful read.

[Lewis M · Rating 4 out of 5]

Always referred to throughout the latter 1990s as a prescient vision of the future it is now a quarter century old. Some things in this book hold up, and some things which we were so sure about are today not so relevant or applicable.

[Nick Angiers · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was an extremely enlightening look into the demographic history of Canada. Published in the mid-90s, it's a little dated, but the interesting thing about that is how many of the author's predictions came true, like the shift to home offices, and why certain trends came and went.

[Elijah Ford · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book was a slow read, At first I found it very interesting but it is very repetitive and I believe it could be summed up quite well without loosing much value in about a third of the length. The main take away is to consider demographics in any future planning one is going to do.

[Ilana · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was gifted to Mitchell by my mom in 1997, with an inscription wishing him to be successful, happy and healthy.

[Brent Lanthier]

Rereading this after 28 years to see how prescient it was...

[Michael · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very good book summarizing the impact of Baby Boomers, Gen X and Gen Y in our marketplace. Some people have criticized it as being too simpliplistic but it teaches a good understanding of generational change and impact on market forces.

[May Ling]

Oh wow, I"m reading this book far too late. Most of what is predicted already came to pass. Interesting way of looking at demographics. I will need to read the next one in the series to see if the author is able to maintain such consistent predictions.

[Adam Gordon]

Interesting to see what demographic forecasts were accurate with 15 years of hindsight.