Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else

by Amir D. Aczel

Chance defines our life. Will you get the job, the lover, and the money? Now Amir Aczel, in this slim book modeled on his very successful Fermat's Last Theorem, gives readers the tools to minimize, or maximize, chance's effect on their lives. Chance marks Aczel's return to his preferred field: the popularization of mathematics. Here, Aczel explores probability theory and its daily, practical applications, while along the way relating stories of inveterate gamblers who also happen to be mathematical geniuses. With the clarity of the statistician he once was, Aczel analyzes what is commonly known as luck. Alongside chapters on "The Surprising Birthday Problem," "Coincidences," and "How to Make Great Decisions" are a history of probability theory and anecdotes of its daily applications.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Mathematics

161 pages, Hardcover

First published November 30, 2003

About the author

Amir Aczel was an Israeli-born American author of popular science and mathematics books. He was a lecturer in mathematics and history of mathematics.

He studied at the University of California, Berkeley. Getting graduating with a BA in mathematics in 1975, received a Master of Science in 1976 and several years later accomplished his Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Oregon. He died in Nîmes, France in 2015.

Reviews

[William Schram · Rating 4 out of 5]

Chance by Amir D Aczel is quite the gem. This slim volume on probability is packed with information and applications. The book makes for a great primer to the subject, mainly due to its focus on practical applications rather than some ivory tower pure mathematics.

Pros and cons of the book are as follows;
+The book is very short.
+Despite that, the book is packed with information.
+While it has few equations, it does not detract from the enjoyment.
+The book contains a lot of gambling and gaming advice.
+The end of the book contains workable problems with solutions.

-Some typos still exist in this book, mainly misspellings.
-Some of the advice is silly.

When I took this out from the Library I was not sure if I had read it before, but that does not seem to be the case. If you can find it out there, this book might be worth your time.

[X · Rating 3 out of 5]

I wish it had given more formulas and gone into a little more detail, but a fascinating book nevertheless!

[Pamela · Rating 3 out of 5]

Actually enjoyed this book. In (mostly) understandable terms various ideas on probability are illustrated in an approachable manner. I'm not the least clever about maths & I found myself re-reading a few things but mainly because it was interesting and I wanted to comprehend different aspects better. If it wasn't a library book, I'd be wishing it was my own copy.. It seems like something I would want to go back & re-read.

[conor · Rating 2 out of 5]

Simplistic. Read in 2 hours and learned little.

[Egstar · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book has no organization. It is just a random collection of thoughts about randomness, so I guess it does live up to its title (in a way). Boring, uninspiring and shallow.

[Jessica Yu · Rating 3 out of 5]

Useful introduction to probability, but I counted at least 5 typos.

[Jessada Karnjana · Rating 4 out of 5]

4 บทแรกเกริ่นนำ, บทที่ 5 แนะนำ subjective probability และพูดถึง de Finetti Game เกมที่เปลี่ยนความน่าจะเป็นแบบ subjective ไปสู่ความน่าจะเป็นแบบ objective, บทที่ 6 พูดถึงสูตรทั่วไปที่พบได้ในตำราเรียน คือ complement of event กับ union of independent events บทนี้ยังมีอีกเรื่องหนึ่งที่น่าสนใจสำหรับนักท่องคาสิโนคือ paradox of the Chevalier de Mere, บทที่ 7 พูดถึง random walks กับ gambler's ruin แม้จะเป็น fair game โอกาสแพ้ เท่ากับโอกาสชนะ แต่ถ้าเล่นกับคนที่มีทุนมากกว่า คุณก็แพ้อยู่ดี, บทที่ 8 ต่อเนื่องจากบทที่ 7 แต่ตอบคำถามพื้นฐานกว่า นั่นคือ อย่างไรจึงเรียกว่าสุ่ม (random) โอกาสที่รูปแบบหนึ่งจะสุ่มหรือไม่สุ่มมีปัจจัยใด, บทที่ 9 พูดเรื่องสามเหลี่ยมปาสกาล, บทที่ 10 เรื่อง inspection paradox เรื่องนี้ก็น่าสนใจ ทุกคนที่เคยรอรถเมล์ย่อมเจอแต่เหตุการณ์แบบนี้ใช่มั้ยครับ ทำไมรอนานจัง มันควรจะเฉลี่ย ๆ กันไม่ใช่เหรอ ทำไมต้องเป็นหนูที่รอนานทุกที, บทที่ 11 พูดถึงปัญญาคลาสสิกข้อหนึ่ง ปัญหาวันเกิด, บทที่ 12 เรื่องความบังเอิญ, บทที่ 13 จั่วหัวท้าทาย จะประสบความสำเร็จในความรักอย่างไร ถ้าเราต้องตัดสินใจเลือกของอย่างหนึ่งที่เข้ามาในชีวิต โดยที่เราไม่อาจทดสอบคุณภาพของทุกชิ้นได้ คณิตศาสตร์แนะนำให้เราสำรวจคุณภาพ 37% ของจำนวนชิ้นทั้งหมด แล้วเลือกชิ้นถัดไป (หลังจาก 37%) ที่ดีกว่ากลุ่มตัวอย่าง โอกาสที่ชิ้นนั้นจะเป็นชิ้นที่ดีที่สุดคือ 37% มากกว่า 1 ใน 3, บทที่ 14 พูดเรื่อง probabilistic averages

[Ken Madsen · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a delightful little book. The author teaches basic probability theory by using fun examples like the chances of landing a certain job or the number of monkeys it would take to write Hamlet. He also delves into a little bit of the history on how these various theories were derived and many of the inaccurate assumptions people held when trying to develop these theories.

Some of the topics he covers:

The independence of events
Subjective probability
The paradox of the Chevalier de Mere
Pascal's Triangle
Bayes Theory - a proof of God's existence
The Normal Curve

If you know nothing on the topic of probability, this is a great first book.

[Celestina · Rating 5 out of 5]

Really really good intro level (imo) to mathematical probabilities. i say that because it dives shortly into different theories and gives the resources so you’re able to look yourself, which i really like considering i found some parts fascinating and others a total snoozefest.

definitely want to look more into the six degrees of separation!! i think anyone would enjoy this book :3

[Antonio Bruno Alves · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good introduction to probabilities. It's useful find out books teaching the same subject in different approaches. So that practical approach was a great strength. I made notes and of course I won't forget the funniest examples.

[Jason · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good, short primer on probability theory. The title oversells, but even those who deal with statistics in their job every day (like me) will find it a useful refresher to some lesser-encountered ideas--such as the commonness of coincidences, etc.

[Ruano Britto · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bom. Generico. Ótimo para quem inicia no universo das probabilidades

[Elizabeth Edwards · Rating 5 out of 5]

Many must lose so.
That the few may win.
You can't beat roulette.

[Max Finnance · Rating 3 out of 5]

A reasonably straightforward intro to statistics and probabilities, with some examples that will surprise you, but not a particularly compelling work. There are more than a handful of typos, often in places that would lead to miscalculations if you aren’t paying close attention, a better editor would have been a good choice here.

[Ensiform · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author, a mathematician and author of The Riddle of the Compass: The Invention that Changed the World, explores real-life applications of probability in a few short and very lucid chapters, from the toss of a coin to the draw of a card to the de Finetti game to standard deviation to Bayes’s Theorem (which I cannot understand at all).

It serves as both an engaging review of probability theory and an investigation of what mathematicians are still learning. Every aspect of the book is charming, from gambling odds to the probabilities of sharing a birthday with a group of other people. I was especially intrigued by Aczel’s scientific explanation of how people really can have nothing but good or bad luck. Informative and readable; I only wished some of the chapters were a bit more fully explained.

[Turi Becker · Rating 2 out of 5]

I've had Chance sitting on my bookshelf for awhile, and threw it in to bring along on a whim. It's pretty much basic statistics, clearly and interestingly explained, with real-like examples. While the equations get kind of hard to follow after awhile, the chapters are pretty short, and it's not to hard to keep interested. Funnily enough, one of the chapters mentions Pascal's Triangle, which Julien noticed on the wall of a MAX station in Portland, and somehow Mich didn't recognize (shame...)

[AJ Dehany · Rating 3 out of 5]

An amusing account of basic probability. I understand why it's not so suprising that if you get 23 people together there's a 50/50 chance they'll share a birthday, and it's not so amazing, though the notion that with 366 people makes a 100% chance/certainty is hard to accept. The Hamlet monkey typists are here, and gamblers, lovers and brokers. Coincidence in general is commendably dispensed with. Not sure I fully understand Bayes's theorem yet. Fun little book.

[Boone Graham]

Picked this up because I found it by chance at the library (it was in the space section). I found the cover design and title very attractive and, based on what I found inside, I'm glad took it home. Turned me on to some neat math concepts, chipped away some superstitions and made me giggle. I jumped ahead to the Love part after a while and nibbled my way out of it. I'll give it another go if I happen upon it again.

[Peter · Rating 3 out of 5]

A short book containing the obvious examples that dispel our innate notion of the likelihood of events. The birthday one is always an illuminating example. But perhaps my favorite is one I had thought about quite a bit from going to so many bachelor parties at casinos (what's up with that?); coin-flipping as it relates to roulette! I remember eating sushi while heavily contemplating my likelihood of winning back my bachelor party expenditures. Ask me about the strategy sometime!

[Shek · Rating 3 out of 5]

One of those short, general survey math books that correctly assumes the plumb math stupidity of its audience. The takeaway seems to be, "Isn't probability NEAT?" but I was still fairly easily conquered once it got into multiple function equations. "P(A given B) = P(B given A) x P(A)/P(B given A) x P(A) + P(B given not A) x P(not A)? Hey, if you say so, smart guy!"

[Nick Stengel · Rating 4 out of 5]

Aczel is one of the best science writers I know of. His ability to present really complicated subjects clearly extends to this book, where he boils down dozens of statistical and probabilistic equations into a few paragraphs each. Usually, I just take the ease of his presentations for granted, but because I have training in this field, I really appreciated his summations.

[Matt · Rating 3 out of 5]

Basically a watered down textbook on probability theory, but pretty interesting if you're into that and like gambling and games of chance, which I am. Has a lot of cool facts that you can bust out at your next lame dinner party.

[Andy · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book has a lot of neat factoids, but it was very loosly strung together and not laymen enough for many people I know. This book might just belong on the coffee table for people to thumb through as it has little games and such you can ramble with friends about.

[Chrissy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Quick easy read with a few problems to test out. I saw some bad reviews but personally found the book useful. I was looking for an easy overview and that's what I got. Why do things happen in 3s? Safety of nuclear power plants? Aczel had some practical answers.

[Alexsis · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a nice little intro to Probability applied to different areas of life. It includes "The Birthday Problem."

[Larry · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fascinating book on applied statistical theory.

[Andrew Theken · Rating 4 out of 5]

good, quick read.

[Andy · Rating 2 out of 5]

Nice foundations of probability theory.

[William · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is an excellent review of probabilities and chance. Its a great read for those that want to renew their understanding of chance for real life.

[steven · Rating 2 out of 5]

Too general / simplistic