Foram precisos 250 mil anos para que a população mundial atingisse os mil milhões, por volta do ano de 1800. Mas só foi precisa de cerca de uma década para que somasse mais mil milhões, tendo ultrapassado os 7 mil milhões em outubro de 2011, pelas contas das Nações Unidas. É nisto que consiste a megamudança: uma mudança em grande escala que se dá a uma velocidade impressionante. E acontece por toda a parte. A tecnologia expande-se incrivelmente depressa - basta pensarmos na internet, nos telemóveis e nos oceanos de informação canalizados por computadores ou transmitidos através das redes sociais como o Facebook e o Twitter. A balança da economia global pende para o lado da Ásia mesmo diante dos nossos olhos. Tudo isto tem um impacto profundo na vida das pessoas, nas suas estratégias de negócios, nas políticas nacionais e nas perspetivas de futuro a nível mundial.
"Predictions about the future that don't assume the global system in which we currently live will be changing much at all; also absent are any arguments defending the unlikelihood of such change."
Although I'm not a normal reader of the Economist, and have a very anti-statist mentality, this work in my opinion only ponders change assuming that the current system of international power continues unchanged. What do I mean? There is no mention of certain seemingly inevitable trends (even if it is simply to disprove their likelihood) such as: growing independence/secession movements among unique regions of countries (Catalonia, Quebec, Flanders, Scotland, etc), the collapse (or at the very least restructuring) of the international Bretton Woods fiat currency system, market reform in aftermaths of derivatives/false credit expansion-related crises, government sovereign debt crises/social security insolvency, the waxing/waning of the ongoing war on drugs, etc. These issues are real and do not appear to be mentioned at all. Even the simple concept of the effects of price inflation in a fiat based economy is barely discussed.
Some opinions are unrealistic (i.e. human-caused global warming is assumed to be held by a near 100% consensus by all readers, even making, in my opinion, quite ridiculous claims such as: NO summer ice will likely exist in the North Pole by 2050). Most predictions that are made seem very 'pie-in-the-sky' citing recommendations for states to curb certain spending and/or increase other types of spending such as redistribution and social spending without describing any real ideas about where these funds will come from; also, providing suggestions for states to promote innovation among public services, without stating how competition will exist in the inherent monopolies which are public services. The ideals put forth in these predictions and recommendations do not seem to match reality, and even it is believed by the authors that they could, they offer no real justification of any claims.
Most of what this work describes is anything that might be spit out by 24-hour news channels without much long-term study: trends based on the extrapolation of datapoints starting now and projected into 2050, without much critical thinking to judge the feasibility or lack thereof of the predictions and recommendations contained within.
Concise, clear, well organised, supported with graphs and charts. A pleasure to read. I can hardly wait to begin the next volume in the sequence, Megatech. Recommended.
So this is my assessment of this book Megachange: The World in 2050 by Daniel Franklin according to my 7 criteria: 1. Related to practice - 3 stars 2. It prevails important - 4 stars 3. I agree with the read - 4 stars 4. not difficult to read (as for non English native) - 3 stars 5. too long and boring story or every sentence is interesting - 3 stars 6. Learning opportunity - 4 stars 7. Dry and uninspired style of writing - Smooth style with humouristic and fun parts - 3 stars
Incredibly interesting variety of predictions for the future. While it's said that predictions say more about the present of the author than the actual future, I think the sum of this book is more than that. There is such a wide range of topics covered by a multitude of authors that I could recommend it to anyone, there is food for thought no matter what your interest is.
I'd like to especially highlight the article 'Of predictions and progress: more for less' by Matt Ridley: It succinctly summed up much of the negative Zeitgeist you find everywhere these days, and managed to put a positive spin on future developments which I found highly refreshing. All you naysayers and pessimists should give it a read, I'm sure it would help you fall asleep easier at night.
I have downloaded this book after listening to an extremely interesting presentation by Dr Bellini (Futurist) at my work's annual conference. Dr Bellini spoke of technological advances, social shifts and geographical changes that sounded to me like science fiction. Then he revealed that they were all likely to happen before I had retired. Many of the developments, particularly in technology, have already started and are science fact rather than fiction. His talk left me inspired to learn more about what we already know of our future world. I came across this book and so far so good... I can't wait to read more.
Ενδιαφέρον να κάνεις προβλέψεις για το πώς θα είναι ο πλανήτης μετά από μερικές δεκαετίες, καθώς τα πράγματα αλλάζουν και συχνά δραματικά από χρόνο σε χρόνο, καμιά φορά και από μήνα σε μήνα. Οι συγγραφείς ευτυχώς προσεγγίζουν το θέμα με αρκετά προσγειωμένο τρόπο και προσπαθούν να κρατήσουν ισορροπίες και να προβλέψουν όσο το δυνατό αστάθμητους παράγοντες. Δύσκολο, πολύ δύσκολο. Το αποτέλεσμα είναι ένα βιβλίο μάλλον βαρετό, δύσκολο να διαβαστεί από τον μέσο αναγνώστη (στον οποίο φαντάζομαι ότι απευθύνεται), με πάρα πολλά στοιχεία που θα μπορούσαν να απουσιάζουν. Έχει το ενδιαφέρον του και το κράτησα στη βιβλιοθήκη μου από περιέργεια για να το δω (αν ζω) ξανά το 2050 και να διαπιστώσω πόσο έπεσε μέσα στις προβλέψεις, αλλά για την κόρη μου σε περίπτωση που της πέσει κανένα περίεργο θέμα στην έκθεση. Μέχρι εκεί όμως.
Неблагодарен труд предсказателя, но коллектив "The Economist" честно постарался. Например, предсказание вирусной пандемии животного происхождения в период ближайших 10 лет, сделанное Шарлоттой Ховард, прекрасно сбылось. Структура книги такова, что читать её можно с любой главы - они практически никак не связаны. Топ-3 глав для меня, это "Укрощение Левиафана" (про эволюцию государственных форм), "Здоровье наций" (медицина и то самое предсказание пандемии" и "глобализация, рост и столетие Азии" (практика показывает, что здесь оказался самый точный набор социально-экономических прогнозов". Впрочем, некоторые последние главы - совсем уж набор банальностей и очевидных благоглупостей. Пока ещё can be read, но скоро потеряет актуальность - когда мир выйдет из пандемии, многое изменится.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
This book is a combination of chapters and by subjects as contributed by different authors (so call familiar or consider expert in their topic). It’s an ambitious book title in attempting to predict the world future in 2050, but with some (topics) losses the analytical sense that gone awry. And lately with so much changes, it has altered what is being predicted. Of course credit to be given to the authors who were trying their best to sum up as best they know. So read it with sense of pinch of salt.
Similar to Megachange (a book written decades ago) but just as brilliant. Fed constant negative ideas and stories from the media, this book is enlightening in that there will be a lot of positive things that will happen over the next forty years - (as this was written more than 10 years ago, you can already see some of the changes that are predicted).
The Economist should be congratulated for the quality of the writing and editing. Every writer's chapter told you something new. A really interesting and thought provoking read.
A foray into futurology for the layperson taking a broad look at various megatrends that might affect the world by 2050. An enjoyable look at the future, mixing a number of contemporary quantitative trends with some long term thinking to make some believable predictions about various domains, including economics, religion, technology, and demography.
But as informative as I found the book, I've rated it down a tad as many of the chapters felt a little tl;dr.
Interesting compilation of 20+ long articles each ending with an outlook till 2050. The reward of the entire book was the dispelling of the gloomy outlook (viz a viz climate change, robotics etc) in the final two chapters.
Many authors contributed to Megachange and as a result the book was rather hit-and-miss for me. Some chapters were too superficial for my taste as they failed to explain the drivers behind certain trends. I also think some graphs could have clearer titles or labels.
An informative book that looks to the coming 40years and provides various different perspectives on how our lives will be impacted by demographic change, technology, science etc. A recommended read
As a change of pace from the fiction that I usually read, I have been slowly working my way through Megachange: The World in 2050. Every year The Economist puts out “The World in…” but Megachange jumps ahead to 2050 and asks their contributors to give us insights and predictions of what lies ahead for us in the next 40 years. I said I was slowly working my through it, and that is not because it is not interesting-quite the contrary, it is one of the most stimulating books I have read in quite awhile! I have been going through it slowly because there is so much here to take in and understand and so much to think about!
Divided into four parts, Megachange offers insights into the following general topics: People and Relationships, Heaven and Earth, Economy and Business and Knowledge and Progress. Under each topic are several chapters written by various contributors to the Economist on various pertinent issues, so for example under the topic Heaven and Earth are chapters on religion, climate change, war, and government. ”Megachange” as used by Franklin (this is a great video!) means change that happens on a massive scale- population trends, the increase of women in the workplace. and the accessibility of technology with things like IPhones, tablets and ebook readers are a few of the megachanges that they see as trends that will truly impact our world in the future.
What was fascinating to me was that on the whole, this book paints a rather optimistic picture of what the world will be like in 2050, rather than the gloom and doom that most futurists predict. That is not to say that here are not many big challenges from managing climate change or conflicts over scarce resources like water or feeding the 9 billion people that are predicted by 2050, but rather that with the right policies, progress is possible on all these fronts and “…that there is every chance that the world in 2050 will be richer, healthier, more connected, more sustainable, more productive, more innovative, better educated, with less inequality between rich and poor and between men and women and with more opportunity for billions of people.”
Although there are numerous variables at work in any effort to predict the trends and changes that will occur over four decades, I was pleased at the depth of knowledge and the even handed and yet accessible way the writers talked about their topics. So for example although it is quite clear that China will certainly become a much greater power economically and will probably surpass the US, their intrinsic problems of an aging population and their lack of freedom in intellectual and scientific pursuits will certainly impact their ability to dominate and control the world economy.
I also enjoyed the various insights that this book offered in terms of the value of new ideas, or inventions in considering the future. As the writer says, ”A technology affects human living standards not when it is invented, but when-decades later-it becomes affordable.” In trying to predict what will become more affordable in the decades leading to 2050, the Economist states that energy- natural gas and solar power and biotechnology- the use of stem cells to repair or replace sick organs or cancer treatments based on vaccines and viral gene therapy are the two main things that will begin to be cheaper and thus more accessible to everyone. Both of these offer an enormous reduction in costs to the average person while improving their lives and life expectancies.
Even though you may not be all that interested in reading the whole book I do encourage you to at least dip into the final chapters which give their main predictions. It is so interesting to just glimpse the future and see what the world might be like in 2050!
Read more reviews at Brendasbookshelf@wordpress.com.
A decent book with a wide range of topics covered from a narrow viewpoint unfortunately but still eye opening regarding this ideology. Also it's a good look at what the future may hold regardless of your lens. The book talks about the future of religion (they say religion is on the decline as part of enlightenment progression), climate change, women's rights and employment, the future of war and many other topics of interest. There is some good criticism on the underlying political machinations of industrialised societies in terms of lobbying and the slow erosion of freedom. A good quick overview on the term democracy and its connotations is provided too.
A big downfall of the book is that it doesn't seem to analyse the criticism of foreign interest and war mongering to western nations or the corruption that is present though probably not on the same level as some other nations. Is it also naive in only believing the Russian political system allows for an elite to rule and not shining the same light on the western political system. Thus the book is very skewed to a western paradigm, believing in its supremacy. A point about climate change that came to my mind when reading the book is that buying local is better for sustainability but would reduce globalisation and its associated benefits like access to more markets and increasing trade, so how does one balance this? Realistically the benefit from this avenue is marginal for the average person and so a more localised economy would be better for the globe and its citizens but most likely detrimental to the jet set rich.
Nezahvalan posao proricanja budućnosti uvijek zaslužuje najvišu ocjenu. Kao što je nekad bilo teško predviđati budućnost iz kristalne kugle, danas je to možda još i teže iz silicijske. Možda će do 2050 ili čak i puno ranije ova knjiga postati primjerak pustih promašaja, ali danas služi kao nadahnuće za tu, ipak blisku budućnost. Podijeljena u četiri djela i dvadeset poglavlja s autorima iz časopisa Economist, knjiga nastoji anticipirati današnje društveno - tehnološke trendove i projicirati ih u 2050. Kroz cjeline: Ljudi i odnosi, Nebo i zemlja, Gospodarstvo i biznis i Znanje i napredak, ovaj konglomerat proricanja možda čak i prilično konzervativno gleda na budućnost nastojeći pomiriti optimizam i realnost, pritom se oštro obračunavajući s pesimizmom. Temelji svoj koncept na jednostavnoj premisi da čovjek usvajajući nove tehnologije i obrasce ponašanja nikad u potpunosti ne odbacuje stare, čime je za korak bliže realnom sagledavanju bliske budućnosti. Ali da li je to dovoljno prosudite sami čitanjem, a možete i malim misaonim pokusom kojim sam se sam poslužio: projicirajte se u 1976. i pokušajte zamisliti kako bi svijet izgledao 2016! Testirajte sebe i svoju maštu.
Качественная футурология от авторов журнала Economist по 20 темам - начиная от планетарной экологии, заканчивая бытовыми инновациями :)
Местами иллюстративная математика, но грузят не сильно :) Местами с юмором, что также радует. В плане охвата мега-трендов - очень хорошая (полная) подборка. Заставляет крепко задуматься!
Из минусов:
1) Широта в ущерб глубине - некоторые тренды (по моему разумению оч.любопытные) затронуты лишь вскользь. Некоторые темы настолько поверхностно прописаны (например, войны будущего), что аж начинаешь сомневаться в компетентности авторов :(
2) Маловато именно про "передовой край" современной науки и техники. Хорошо - про природу и общество.
3) И забавляет этот несколько наивный проамериканский (панамериканский, паксамериканский :)) взгляд на будущее мира... Особенно в социально-политически-экономических-культурулогических прогнозах.
Хотя... м.б. они, "главнюки" и правы... Но от авторов подобных текстов хотелось бы поменьше журналистики, а побольше всё же научной беспристрастности.
Created by the Economist magazine, with each chapter written by an Economist staff member, this book is an extrapolation of current trends to predict what the world will be like in 2050. In addition to giving interesting predictions, the book gives a very good look at current trends and statistics, covering everything from population and gender roles to the uses of technology and economic development. The best part was the final chapter, which explained how people have always foreseen doom in the future, and concluded that we will survive, the earth will be just fine, and life will go on. We should stop fretting ourselves to death and appreciate what we have.
I actually loved the book, despite its dry style (those Brits sure can write dry prose! :-)) In any case, it is a really interesting book about the future. Definitely worth a read as it is a serious, non-sensationalistic look at what can happen by 2050. A lot of things would stay the same, BTW, and that actually seems likely.
The book is well researched as you would expect from the authors, most if not all of them are linked to the Economist.
They cover multiple topics and start with a history of the topic and then what they expect will happen in the next few decades. No real earth shattering insights, but an enjoyable reminder if the challenges we face and may face in future.
I liked that this was realistic about its own predictive power. Crystal balls were gazed into, but the reliability of crystal balls in general was called into question and so there was no sense that I was being sold a load of sci-fi disguised as reporting.
The provenance of this book speaks volumes - the editors of and writers for "The Economist". In its 4 major sections it presents a series of interesting, authoritative, informative and well-informed essays on what the world, and life in it, could be like in 2050.
Interesting read. Does not really match the rational optimist, physics of the future or the future babble. It lacks depth and tries to make for it by including all and everything.