Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios

by Thomas J. Chermack

Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do-he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system-project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. "This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage." -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation

Genres: Business, Nonfiction, Management

288 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2011

Reviews

[John Crippen · Rating 3 out of 5]

So far, the most complete book on the nuts and bolts of scenario planning that I've read. Will definitely be referencing the various worksheets, lists, templates, and charts in here. I particularly appreciated the author's focus on assessing the impact of scenario planning. Since it was written for consultants and business leaders who have already committed to using this approach, it's not really a sales pitch for scenario planning. But an interested neophyte (like me!) would still find this volume helpful, if not inspiring.

[Ali Heydari · Rating 5 out of 5]

I mean, what a bloody book!

[Alireza Hejazi · Rating 4 out of 5]

The topic of this book is scenario planning. A decision-making method called scenario planning may be used to investigate and comprehend a wide range of problems in organizations. The book offers a clear, succinct manual for evaluating the advantages of scenario planning in businesses. The goal of the book is to offer a useful method for scenario preparation. The theoretical underpinnings of scenario planning are covered. It is a comprehensive manual for using scenarios and gives readers a framework for evaluating the effects of scenario projects. Anyone interested in utilizing scenario planning to guide an organization into the future may find the book useful. It offers thorough advice on how to use scenarios to assist organizational transformation and put them into practice.

[Anjar Priandoyo · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good and practical book on scenario analysis, I should read this book earlier before doing my thesis actually. Its very simple. It is basically like other management tools, but the use of scenario analysis is quite popular nowadays, especially in the area of energy study.

[Maria Freeman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Read 8/12 chapters

[Marcus Ampadu · Rating 5 out of 5]

Definitely a remarkable Person

Prof Thomas Chemacck it a good writer, he explains terms & acronyms very well. TUNA or VUCA conditions are beautifully done.

[Dr Ariel Rainey · Rating 4 out of 5]

If this is something that interests you, this guy is pretty much the best there is.

[kamila · Rating 3 out of 5]

Fácil de leer y bastante completo para adentrarte como principiante a la Planeación Estratégica.