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Harvard Business Review on Making Smarter Decisions
Decisions are the coin of the realm in business. Every success, every mishap, every opportunity seized or missed stems from a decision someone made - or failed to make. Brimming with potent suggestions from esteemed experts - including Jeffrey Pfeffer, Robert Sutton, Ram Charan, Thomas Davenport, and John Hammond - this handy volume offers a wealth of tools and practices to guide you through your most difficult choices.
From the Back Cover
Decisions are the coin of the realm in business. Every success, every mishap, every opportunity seized or missed stems from a decision someone made-or failed to make. Brimming with potent suggestions from esteemed experts-including Jeffrey Pfeffer, Robert Sutton, Ram Charan, Thomas Davenport, and John Hammond-this handy volume offers a wealth of tools and practices to guide you through your most difficult choices.
The Harvard Review Paperback Series
The series is designed to bring today's managers and professionals the fundamental information they need to stay competitive in a fast-moving world. From the preeminent thinkers whose work has defined an entire field to the rising stars who will redefine the way we think about business, here are the leading minds and landmark ideas that have established the Harvard Business Review as required reading for ambitious businesspeople in organizations around the globe.
From the Back Cover
Decisions are the coin of the realm in business. Every success, every mishap, every opportunity seized or missed stems from a decision someone made-or failed to make. Brimming with potent suggestions from esteemed experts-including Jeffrey Pfeffer, Robert Sutton, Ram Charan, Thomas Davenport, and John Hammond-this handy volume offers a wealth of tools and practices to guide you through your most difficult choices.
The Harvard Review Paperback Series
The series is designed to bring today's managers and professionals the fundamental information they need to stay competitive in a fast-moving world. From the preeminent thinkers whose work has defined an entire field to the rising stars who will redefine the way we think about business, here are the leading minds and landmark ideas that have established the Harvard Business Review as required reading for ambitious businesspeople in organizations around the globe.
208 pages, Paperback
First published February 6, 2007
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Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews
July 15, 2012
**1. the hidden traps in decision making
psychological traps:
i. the anchoring trap (giving disproportionate weight to the first information it receives)
e.g. 1st question: is the population of turkey greater than 35 million
2nd question: what's your best estimate of Turkey's population
e.g. during negotiation, initial proposal matters
what to do?
think about the problem on your own before consulting others
avoid anchoring your advisers
ii. the status-quo trap
reason: breaking from status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility
what to do?
never think of the status quo as your only alternative
ask yourself whether you would choose the status-quo alternative, if it werent the status quo
avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from the status quo
idont default to the status quo just because you're having a hard time choosing the best alternative
iii. the sunk cost trap
iv. the confirming evidence trap
what to do?
examine evidence with equal rigor
be honest with yourself about your motives
v. the framing trap
e.g. a classic experiment about whether you will save the cargo with a certain probability versus losing the cargo with a certain probability
risk adverse in terms of gains, risk seeking avoiding losses
vi. the estimating and forecasting traps
need to get feedback about the forecast in order to improve
recallability trap - certain memories weigh more when decision making
2. delusions of success: how optimism undermines executive decisions
reasons: attribution errors: take credit for themselves and attribute negative outcomes to external factors
e.g. a survey asking people's workload (total larger than 100%) and a survey asking their leadership ability ( only 2% rated themselves below average)
other factors that worsen the problem:
competitor neglect
organizational pressure (organizations discourage pessimism)
solutions: the outside view instead of the inside one
e.g. the Israel textbook example from Kahneman
conclusion: draw a distinction between those make decisions and those support actions
so as to have a balance of objectivity and optimism
3. conquering a culture of indecision (skipped)
4. evidence based management
doctors used to rely on obsolete knowledge gained in school, long standing but never proven traditions, patterns gleaned from experience, the methods they believe in and are more skilled in applying etc. The same holds true for managers too.
An evidence based management should be practiced.
lots of managers get their companies into trouble by importing performance management and measurement practices from their past experience, without acknowledging the differences.
The reason is that information acquired firsthand often feels richer than do words and data in a journal article.
how to become an evidence-based manager?
demand evidence
*treat the organization as an unfinished prototype (keep doing small experiments)
evidence-based practice changes power dynamics, replacing formal authority, reputation, and intuition with data
5. what you dont know about making decisions
decisions as process: inquiry (considering alternatives) versus advocacy (arguing our positions)
how to do it?
i. constructive conflict
*require vigorous debate (point-counterpint or intellectual watchdog) need to have a common set of opinions
prohibit language that triggers defensiveness
break up natural coalitions
shift individuals out of well worn grooves
challenge stalemated participants to revisit key information
ii. consideration
convey openness
listen attentively
explain the rationale behind your decision
*give an equal and heavy weight in others' opinions (explain how their opinion affects the final decision)
iii. closure
*ro bring disaffected people back into the discussion, it may be best to call for a break, approach dissenters one bye one, and encourage them to speak up
6. who has the D: how clear decision roles enhance organizational performance
what are the roles: RAPID
recommend, agree, input, decide, perform
sharing information is important
the characteristics of high-performing organizations
some decisions matter more
action is the goal
ambiguity is the enemy
speed and adaptability are crucial
decision roles trump the organizational chart
7. how (un)ethical are you
implicit prejudice: bias that emerges from unconscious beliefs
www.tolerance.org/hidden_bias
in practice: a manager should ask the subordinate not what he thinks he alone deserves but what he considers an appropriate raise after taking into account each coworker's contribution and the pool available for pay increases.
8. make better decisions (skipped)
9. why good leaders make bad decisions
involve others!
10. stop making plans; start making decisions
Use continuous issues-focused strategic planning instead of a periodic planning or a business-unit one
psychological traps:
i. the anchoring trap (giving disproportionate weight to the first information it receives)
e.g. 1st question: is the population of turkey greater than 35 million
2nd question: what's your best estimate of Turkey's population
e.g. during negotiation, initial proposal matters
what to do?
think about the problem on your own before consulting others
avoid anchoring your advisers
ii. the status-quo trap
reason: breaking from status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility
what to do?
never think of the status quo as your only alternative
ask yourself whether you would choose the status-quo alternative, if it werent the status quo
avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from the status quo
idont default to the status quo just because you're having a hard time choosing the best alternative
iii. the sunk cost trap
iv. the confirming evidence trap
what to do?
examine evidence with equal rigor
be honest with yourself about your motives
v. the framing trap
e.g. a classic experiment about whether you will save the cargo with a certain probability versus losing the cargo with a certain probability
risk adverse in terms of gains, risk seeking avoiding losses
vi. the estimating and forecasting traps
need to get feedback about the forecast in order to improve
recallability trap - certain memories weigh more when decision making
2. delusions of success: how optimism undermines executive decisions
reasons: attribution errors: take credit for themselves and attribute negative outcomes to external factors
e.g. a survey asking people's workload (total larger than 100%) and a survey asking their leadership ability ( only 2% rated themselves below average)
other factors that worsen the problem:
competitor neglect
organizational pressure (organizations discourage pessimism)
solutions: the outside view instead of the inside one
e.g. the Israel textbook example from Kahneman
conclusion: draw a distinction between those make decisions and those support actions
so as to have a balance of objectivity and optimism
3. conquering a culture of indecision (skipped)
4. evidence based management
doctors used to rely on obsolete knowledge gained in school, long standing but never proven traditions, patterns gleaned from experience, the methods they believe in and are more skilled in applying etc. The same holds true for managers too.
An evidence based management should be practiced.
lots of managers get their companies into trouble by importing performance management and measurement practices from their past experience, without acknowledging the differences.
The reason is that information acquired firsthand often feels richer than do words and data in a journal article.
how to become an evidence-based manager?
demand evidence
*treat the organization as an unfinished prototype (keep doing small experiments)
evidence-based practice changes power dynamics, replacing formal authority, reputation, and intuition with data
5. what you dont know about making decisions
decisions as process: inquiry (considering alternatives) versus advocacy (arguing our positions)
how to do it?
i. constructive conflict
*require vigorous debate (point-counterpint or intellectual watchdog) need to have a common set of opinions
prohibit language that triggers defensiveness
break up natural coalitions
shift individuals out of well worn grooves
challenge stalemated participants to revisit key information
ii. consideration
convey openness
listen attentively
explain the rationale behind your decision
*give an equal and heavy weight in others' opinions (explain how their opinion affects the final decision)
iii. closure
*ro bring disaffected people back into the discussion, it may be best to call for a break, approach dissenters one bye one, and encourage them to speak up
6. who has the D: how clear decision roles enhance organizational performance
what are the roles: RAPID
recommend, agree, input, decide, perform
sharing information is important
the characteristics of high-performing organizations
some decisions matter more
action is the goal
ambiguity is the enemy
speed and adaptability are crucial
decision roles trump the organizational chart
7. how (un)ethical are you
implicit prejudice: bias that emerges from unconscious beliefs
www.tolerance.org/hidden_bias
in practice: a manager should ask the subordinate not what he thinks he alone deserves but what he considers an appropriate raise after taking into account each coworker's contribution and the pool available for pay increases.
8. make better decisions (skipped)
9. why good leaders make bad decisions
involve others!
10. stop making plans; start making decisions
Use continuous issues-focused strategic planning instead of a periodic planning or a business-unit one
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
January 3, 2021
Collection of scholarly articles from some of the best names in management on business decision making practices as of 2007
1. Have clearly defined roles
2. Base decisions on evidence
3. Strategic planning is a waste of time, change to continuous issue management
4. Seek out evidence that does not support your decision especially in an area that could be critical
5. Data analytics are king
6. Be wary of automatic emotional response from how our brains are structured
7. Decisive dialogue: real talk, good questions, candid feedback
8. Avoid heuristics: anchoring, status quo, sunk cost, confirming evidence, framing, estimating and forecasting, overconfidence, prudence, recallability
1. Have clearly defined roles
2. Base decisions on evidence
3. Strategic planning is a waste of time, change to continuous issue management
4. Seek out evidence that does not support your decision especially in an area that could be critical
5. Data analytics are king
6. Be wary of automatic emotional response from how our brains are structured
7. Decisive dialogue: real talk, good questions, candid feedback
8. Avoid heuristics: anchoring, status quo, sunk cost, confirming evidence, framing, estimating and forecasting, overconfidence, prudence, recallability
July 3, 2024
Bẫy chi phí chìm: các hành động tiếp theo đều dựa trên các quyết định cũ, nhưng lại là các quyết định tệ hại → đâm lao theo lao → mọi người thường không sẵn sàng (vô thức hoặc có chủ ý) thừa nhận sai lầm.
⇒ Tham khảo lời khuyên từ những người ngoài cuộc. Chấp nhận lỗi lầm của bản thân → rút kinh nghiệm
Bẫy củng cố chứng cứ: ta thường tin theo những bằng chứng mà ủng hộ ý kiến của tiềm thức
⇒ Tìm người đưa ra ý kiến trái ngược với mình, xem xét các vấn đề liên quan
Bẫy trình bày vấn đề: trình bày dựa trên khung tham chiếu, được - mất
Bẫy tự tin thái quá
Bẫy thận trọng: quá dè dặt hay thận trọng → chỉ để an toàn
⇒ Tham khảo lời khuyên từ những người ngoài cuộc. Chấp nhận lỗi lầm của bản thân → rút kinh nghiệm
Bẫy củng cố chứng cứ: ta thường tin theo những bằng chứng mà ủng hộ ý kiến của tiềm thức
⇒ Tìm người đưa ra ý kiến trái ngược với mình, xem xét các vấn đề liên quan
Bẫy trình bày vấn đề: trình bày dựa trên khung tham chiếu, được - mất
Bẫy tự tin thái quá
Bẫy thận trọng: quá dè dặt hay thận trọng → chỉ để an toàn
September 21, 2014
This is the first HBR book in my personal collection and it's basically a collection of 10 academic papers on the topic concerned.
The selected papers are not that technical in nature and provide for a rather easy read. They are pretty sound and not too complex nor abstract, almost like reading any other business/self-improvement book.
That being said, the papers provide for a good analysis and much personal pondering on the topic concerned, especially the real life case studies, which provide for much realism and assurance that actual objective research has gone into providing the respective conclusions on the ideas put forth. At times, I do feel cheated that I can actually cover the gist of the whole paper just by reading the "Ideas In Brief" notes at the start of each paper, which is basically what u will take home from the paper anyway.
Look forward to reading the rest of the books in my collection!
The selected papers are not that technical in nature and provide for a rather easy read. They are pretty sound and not too complex nor abstract, almost like reading any other business/self-improvement book.
That being said, the papers provide for a good analysis and much personal pondering on the topic concerned, especially the real life case studies, which provide for much realism and assurance that actual objective research has gone into providing the respective conclusions on the ideas put forth. At times, I do feel cheated that I can actually cover the gist of the whole paper just by reading the "Ideas In Brief" notes at the start of each paper, which is basically what u will take home from the paper anyway.
Look forward to reading the rest of the books in my collection!
July 17, 2010
This book is a collection of papers on decision making. Although not all its readings are good, I recommend one: The hidden traps in decision making, by John Hammond, Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa.
In a nutshell, the paper explains when and why business decisions are faulty, even with the appropriate analytics and information. The authors present seven psychological traps of decision making and describe how to avoid them.
In a nutshell, the paper explains when and why business decisions are faulty, even with the appropriate analytics and information. The authors present seven psychological traps of decision making and describe how to avoid them.
October 12, 2014
Uma boa coletânea de artigos com destaque para o artigo do Ram Charam "Vencendo uma cultura de indecisão" que é excelente.
No mais, é interessante para quem busca um refresh, mas, para quem já vive lendo a respeito às vezes fica um pouco maçante.
No mais, é interessante para quem busca um refresh, mas, para quem já vive lendo a respeito às vezes fica um pouco maçante.
November 3, 2012
Nice collection of articles on decision making.
February 17, 2013
The best HBR articles were the 2nd and 3rd in the book. Article 5 was too brief. I skipped the last article and evaluation and due to time constraints.
December 31, 2015
A must read for everyone in business!
February 22, 2016
Practical
May 28, 2016
Many good advice from actual cases.
Some of them will let you know why some choices we made are influenced by past events, biases or other external agents.
Some of them will let you know why some choices we made are influenced by past events, biases or other external agents.
Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews