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Investir à long terme
L'investisseur de renommée mondiale, Francisco Garcia Paramés, partage ses conseils et astuces pour faire des investissements intelligents dans ce livre indispensable pour ceux qui cherchent à faire des choix plus judicieux pour leur portefeuille. Investir à long terme comporte deux parties. La première retrace le parcours étudiant et professionnel de Francisco Garcia Paramés. Cette période fascinante coïncide avec l'avènement du plus grand marché haussier du 20ème siècle et les krachs technologiques et financiers de 2000 et 2008. La manière dont l'auteur a fait face à ces moments tourmentés pourra vous aider à affronter des situations similaires, le cas échéant. La deuxième partie du livre couvre les pierres angulaires de la philosophie de Francisco Garcia Paramés. Il commence par un chapitre sur l'économie autrichienne, qui est selon lui la seule approche sensée de l'économie, ce qui l'a énormément aidé au fil des ans. Il explique ensuite pourquoi il faut investir dans des actifs réels, et plus particulièrement dans des actions, pour maintenir le pouvoir d'achat de son épargne, en évitant à tout prix le papier-monnaie (obligations d'État). Le reste du livre montre comment investir en actions : Pour la qualité des conseils prodigués, Investir à long terme est un incontournable pour tous les investisseurs, jeunes et moins jeunes, qui souhaitent améliorer leur capacité à sélectionner les actions en Bourse les plus prometteuses.
368 pages, Paperback
First published October 4, 2016
102 people are currently reading
622 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 53 reviews
November 23, 2016
140 páginas de batallitas personales, comienza cómo una crítica de Boyero. la relevancia de la cartera del fondo en 2.003 aun se me escapa. lo demás se puede resumir en tres decálogos. podría haber sido cinco páginas y sobraría una para la portada. muy prescindible
October 15, 2016
Tuve la suerte de conocer e invertir en los fondos de Bestinver en el 2004 a través de un compañero del master y por ello tenía mucha curiosidad por leer el libro de su gestor estrella. Paramés es un inversor, no un escritor. Y en la escritura se nota en varias partes del libro. Pero a pesar de que la escritura no es excelsa en mi opinión es sin duda uno de los mejores libros de inversión que he leído. La primera parte del libro donde narra sus últimos 25 años de vida hubiera podido ser mucho más extensa y convertirse en un libro per se. De las otras partes especialmente interesantes el marco teórico de la escuela de economistas austriacos, las archiconocidas historias de su mentor Buffet y la importancia de la metodología de trabajo y de la paciencia para el inversor a largo plazo. Paramés se autodefine como sencillo y hasta en cierto punto austero, rasgos de personalidad que casan muy bien con la visión siempre largoplacista de sus fondos. Sin duda una gran obra que en general no dejará indiferente. Seguramente uno de los libros más rentables que puedas leer.
May 1, 2023
Fantástico libro de finanzas.
Inicia con una breve historia del inversor español, para acabar con una serie de máximas que todo iniciado debería conocer.Además con una base sólida en la economía clásica austriaca.
Inicia con una breve historia del inversor español, para acabar con una serie de máximas que todo iniciado debería conocer.Además con una base sólida en la economía clásica austriaca.
October 19, 2019
Francisco Garcia Parames, born in 1963, and already one of the very few successful investors that both have started a fund from scratch and written a book, and has done this in Europe - not even UK, but Spain. He kindly takes us through his story from the very beginning, which includes a heavy dose of inspiration from the usual US suspects. This book can be read with great benefit both by those with less knowledge and by experts. This is a perfect, easy to read book for the holiday or for a long flight.
The first part of the book is about Parames life before becoming an investor. I think this is very inspirational for beginners, so it’s not to be disregarded. The second part covers the author’s theory of investing and it starts with his use of Austrian economics. This clearly sets him apart from other value investors. Obviously this has increased my interest in the topic and the author graciously recommends key books on the subject. Then comes two chapters that discusses the merits of investing in stocks over the long term. I found these less interesting, but very well written and wells suited for the beginner.
Subsequently follow chapters 7-8, which I found the most interesting, since they are all about how to make money in stocks. Parames recommends 9 ways to find the winners, of which I will discuss 3. i) Opportunities in cyclical companies. Parames is by heart a value investor, and stresses the value of patience and long-term thinking. He thinks cyclical companies are the easiest and least risky way to find opportunities. Cycles always turn around. He stresses that the key here is not to try to predict the inflection points and to keep buying thru the fall. It is also vital that the company has little debt and a market leading position. ii) Long term projects. Investors in general lack patience, leading to incorrect prices and investment opportunities. Patience is an investor’s biggest asset, not intelligence. He writes “its surprising how schizophrenic investors are, disliking investments that hurt short term results, but increase value in 2-3 years.” iii) Free lunches. These appear when a stable business, which justifies its share price, comes into a possession of an asset, an overlooked early stage project that is not priced by the market.
Valuation is the author’s last step in the selection of stocks. The work here focuses on calculating a normalized earnings number and putting a relevant multiple on it - on average 15x. Once Parames has done that, he invests in those with the largest discount to current the market price. He then addresses the question when the market will realize that the stock is too cheap. It can take time, but he gives the example that even if it takes 10 years to get to his target price (which are 50% higher than current price) he will get a 4% return, which he thinks is the worst-case scenario. He works actively with portfolio rebalancing, selling winners and buying losers, keeping the weights unchanged. He doesn’t like catalysts but concludes that some factors can speed up the revaluation process, like new managers or economic cycle, currency rates etc. that change for the better. He stresses once again that patience is key for success and that you need a lot of it.
The final chapter of the book is about the irrational investor lurking within us all. It’s a great summary of behavioral finance. He addresses the problems of extrapolation, herd mentality and the risk of drifting away from a sound strategy. His recommendation is to be aware of the biases and implement a somewhat automatic investment process. He further highlights the problem with information overload and the negative slant on all information we receive, making it more difficult to hold on to one’s convictions as it distorts reality. The book ends with some true gems. Firstly, a list of 26 small ideas and a guiding principle. Secondly, one of the best readings lists I’ve seen in a book, with a lot of inspiration for everyone. This is a perfect finish for a book from an investor that is reading all the time, and still evolves his investment style like a true master.
Bo Börtemark, October 19, 2019
The first part of the book is about Parames life before becoming an investor. I think this is very inspirational for beginners, so it’s not to be disregarded. The second part covers the author’s theory of investing and it starts with his use of Austrian economics. This clearly sets him apart from other value investors. Obviously this has increased my interest in the topic and the author graciously recommends key books on the subject. Then comes two chapters that discusses the merits of investing in stocks over the long term. I found these less interesting, but very well written and wells suited for the beginner.
Subsequently follow chapters 7-8, which I found the most interesting, since they are all about how to make money in stocks. Parames recommends 9 ways to find the winners, of which I will discuss 3. i) Opportunities in cyclical companies. Parames is by heart a value investor, and stresses the value of patience and long-term thinking. He thinks cyclical companies are the easiest and least risky way to find opportunities. Cycles always turn around. He stresses that the key here is not to try to predict the inflection points and to keep buying thru the fall. It is also vital that the company has little debt and a market leading position. ii) Long term projects. Investors in general lack patience, leading to incorrect prices and investment opportunities. Patience is an investor’s biggest asset, not intelligence. He writes “its surprising how schizophrenic investors are, disliking investments that hurt short term results, but increase value in 2-3 years.” iii) Free lunches. These appear when a stable business, which justifies its share price, comes into a possession of an asset, an overlooked early stage project that is not priced by the market.
Valuation is the author’s last step in the selection of stocks. The work here focuses on calculating a normalized earnings number and putting a relevant multiple on it - on average 15x. Once Parames has done that, he invests in those with the largest discount to current the market price. He then addresses the question when the market will realize that the stock is too cheap. It can take time, but he gives the example that even if it takes 10 years to get to his target price (which are 50% higher than current price) he will get a 4% return, which he thinks is the worst-case scenario. He works actively with portfolio rebalancing, selling winners and buying losers, keeping the weights unchanged. He doesn’t like catalysts but concludes that some factors can speed up the revaluation process, like new managers or economic cycle, currency rates etc. that change for the better. He stresses once again that patience is key for success and that you need a lot of it.
The final chapter of the book is about the irrational investor lurking within us all. It’s a great summary of behavioral finance. He addresses the problems of extrapolation, herd mentality and the risk of drifting away from a sound strategy. His recommendation is to be aware of the biases and implement a somewhat automatic investment process. He further highlights the problem with information overload and the negative slant on all information we receive, making it more difficult to hold on to one’s convictions as it distorts reality. The book ends with some true gems. Firstly, a list of 26 small ideas and a guiding principle. Secondly, one of the best readings lists I’ve seen in a book, with a lot of inspiration for everyone. This is a perfect finish for a book from an investor that is reading all the time, and still evolves his investment style like a true master.
Bo Börtemark, October 19, 2019
March 12, 2025
Historia de uno de los mejores inversores de la historia de España (por lo que dicen sus cohetaneos) aunque yo no puedo hablar con hechos de primera mano. Simplemente puedo leer los numeros y los benchmarks que ofrecen en el libro con la fiabilidad historica y el cherry picking de los resultados.
Uno de los mejores libros de inversion españoles que se pueden leer posiblemente porque es de los pocos que no te quiere vender un activono fondo a posteriori debido a que el fondo de Parames en Bestinver ya no existe. Es un libro que no ja envejecido mal como si lo hacen otros muchos libros de inversion, debido a que habla mucho sobre la historia pasada y sobre estartegias de inversion a largo plazo (basicos y psicologicos), si vamos a invertir a largo dara igual si empezamos en 2010, 2020 o 2030.
El libro se parte en varias parted distintas. El marco teorico del final no creo que aporte mucho valor respecto a otros libros del sector, pero la parte de resumen de la historia del fondo español a lo largo de más de dos decadas y la historia breve de los austriacos es un bonito relato de explicar temas complejos con libros mas extensos pero más densos.
En conclusión, un libro del "Warren Buffet español" donde se puede llegar a empatizar con el autor y bajar a tierra las finanzas.
Uno de los mejores libros de inversion españoles que se pueden leer posiblemente porque es de los pocos que no te quiere vender un activono fondo a posteriori debido a que el fondo de Parames en Bestinver ya no existe. Es un libro que no ja envejecido mal como si lo hacen otros muchos libros de inversion, debido a que habla mucho sobre la historia pasada y sobre estartegias de inversion a largo plazo (basicos y psicologicos), si vamos a invertir a largo dara igual si empezamos en 2010, 2020 o 2030.
El libro se parte en varias parted distintas. El marco teorico del final no creo que aporte mucho valor respecto a otros libros del sector, pero la parte de resumen de la historia del fondo español a lo largo de más de dos decadas y la historia breve de los austriacos es un bonito relato de explicar temas complejos con libros mas extensos pero más densos.
En conclusión, un libro del "Warren Buffet español" donde se puede llegar a empatizar con el autor y bajar a tierra las finanzas.
April 2, 2017
Un excelente libro de inversión escrito por quien es muy probablemente el mejor gestor de fondos español. Un ejercicio de autoanálisis y de transparencia muy considerable.
Dos factores, impiden, a mi juicio, darle la máxima calificación:
- Su empeño en reivindicar una escuela de economía realmente obsoleta. (Algunas de sus ideas son bastante ridículas, como la de que los costes son subjetivos).
- Su distinción, algo artificial, entre lo que llama activos reales y no reales.
En ambos casos, los daños que puedan darse a su proceso inversor son escasos. Es por ello que sigo confiando parte de mis ahorros con el autor.
Dos factores, impiden, a mi juicio, darle la máxima calificación:
- Su empeño en reivindicar una escuela de economía realmente obsoleta. (Algunas de sus ideas son bastante ridículas, como la de que los costes son subjetivos).
- Su distinción, algo artificial, entre lo que llama activos reales y no reales.
En ambos casos, los daños que puedan darse a su proceso inversor son escasos. Es por ello que sigo confiando parte de mis ahorros con el autor.
September 6, 2025
Para todo aquel que sienta curiosidad por el mundo de la inversión y no haya tenido ningún contacto con él hasta ahora (mi caso) este es un muy buen libro para empezar.
A través de la propia experiencia del autor, ex director de inversión de Bestinver (empresa del grupo Acciona), se obtiene una visión general e interesante del mundo inversor a partir de conceptos económicos “básicos” explicados adecuadamente.
Sin duda, una lectura imprescindible.
A través de la propia experiencia del autor, ex director de inversión de Bestinver (empresa del grupo Acciona), se obtiene una visión general e interesante del mundo inversor a partir de conceptos económicos “básicos” explicados adecuadamente.
Sin duda, una lectura imprescindible.
November 2, 2019
I get hooked to reading this book because of rare combination of value investing and Austrian economics school. This book has a good introduction with long reading list for both. But the most interesting part was about Parames' investment process.
Some quotes:
The stocks with the highest weights, over 5%, should command our total confidence to avoid a risk of serious damage. The riskiest bets should be kept to a prudent size, never more than 1-2%
We have almost always steered clear of structured products. They are hard to understand and you feel as though you are being charged hidden costs.
There are very few companies able to maintain a durable competitive advantage. Nearly all sectors end up revering towards a reasonable return on capital, which is neither high nor low - between 5% and 10%.
Do not take costs as given. This is a common error when looking at commodity or cyclical companies or companies with novel products.
Volatility is not the best measure of risk. The risk of an investment is the possibility of a permanent loss of purchasing power as a result of making an error of judgement
On Discount rate:
my best alternative investment has always been the funds i have directly managed.
The logic behind price momentum is that if you buy a stock with is already starting to rise then the opportunity cost is lower, reducing the time spent waiting for the rest of the market to wake up to the opportunity. This waiting time is the biggest problem for value investors, because we have a natural impulse to buy too soon and sell too early. In any case, for somebody accustomed to buying shares when they are on the way down, it feels counterintuitive to buy what is rising, making it a challenge to apply this price momentum strategy.
Experience ultimately teaches us that many of these cheap stocks are to be found in challenging sectors or subject major competitiveness challenges, and in the long term can remain eternal duds. Time is NOT on our side with such stocks, since the returns on capital are low and the potential upside is slow to materialize and uncertain. The balance sheet isn't everything.
Cyclical companies. This is probably the easiest and least risky way to find opportunities. Economic cycles need to be tolerated with enormous patience, but it's a reassurance to know that a falling share price is solely a cyclical effect and not due to some unknown competitiveness factor. Cycles always turn around. This means opportunities here are simple to analyze, as we already know what's driving the movement.
The biggest error with the cycle is trying to predict the exact point of inflection, which is a total waste of time. The crucial point is to keep buying throughout the fall, since the best results are obtained from the last investments that are made.
Once we have eventually uncovered some quality stocks which we feel comfortable with, we can begin to increase their concentration in our portfolio. It is vital to diversify the portfolio among minimum number of stocks. The exact figure is not important, although five to six stocks would be a bare minimum. The total number of stocks in the portfolio will depend on how much knowledge we acquire on different companies, but without going beyond a reasonable number, say 15 to 25.
Companies to avoid:
1. Companies with an excessive growth focus.
2. companies which are constantly acquiring other companies.
3. IPO
4. Bsns which are still in their infancy.
5. Companies with opaque accounting
6. Companies with key employees. investment banks, law firms, headhunters..
7. Highly indebted companies.
it’s far better to have a good understand- ing of the business and be able to determine a particular company’s capacity to generate future earnings. The goal is not to precisely forecast earnings each year, but rather to set out a logical range in which they are likely to move according to the business’s characteristics. Doing so requires reading, delving into the companies, asking, learning, and reflecting; not constructing complicated models.
Once we have a figure for normalised earnings (i.e. under stable market conditions – neither boom nor crisis) we can apply an appropriate multiple and arrive at our valuation. Discounting cash flows is a neat stylistic exercise, but adds little to the valuation.
The multiple to apply to these normalised earnings will depend on the quality of the business. A very reasonable – and probably the most suitable – approach is to use the stock market average for the last 200 years.
This average is 15, which is equivalent to an ‘earning yield’ of 6.6% (1 × 100/15), in line with the long-term real return on equities. Setting this as a target return seems pretty sensible. For some outstanding businesses we could apply a somewhat higher margin of between 15 and 20; while for more mediocre businesses, with limited barriers to entry, we should push it down to between 10 and 15. For most businesses, 15 is an appropriate multiple.
Once we have performed the valuation, we should invest where we find the largest discounts relative to this target valuation, calculated according to the multiple. Other qualitative factors will also influence the investment deci- sion, the most important one being the quality of the business and – closely related to that – our confidence in the valuation we have performed. Quality and confidence will help us decide the appropriate weight for each stock in the portfolio.
The economic cycle. Highly cyclical companies will never be in a stable situation, since the ups and downs of the cycle make it hard to know what ‘normal’ earnings look like. It’s not about predicting the cycle, rather it comes down to understanding where we are right now, which may be an extreme, good, bad, or plain normal situation. There are var- ious different methods we can use to adjust earnings in the face of this difficulty: taking the average of results over the last 10 years, adjust- ing for inflation; taking maximum and minimum earnings over the last 10 years and using the mid-point; or any other commonsense criteria.
am constantly tweaking the weights of my stocks according to their performance. If I have positions in two stocks and one goes up by 20% and the other falls by 20%, I almost automatically sell positions in the first to allow me to reinvest in the second.
When we come across an undervalued company which repurchases its shares, we are looking at the only catalyst under the direct influence of the company and its shareholders
In summary, the perfect stock is a preferred share in a medium-size company with a family holding company structure, trading on the wrong market, with a cyclical component and/or long-term investments.
The first step (optional, depending on the circumstances, as we will see) involves trying to acquire some idea about where we are in the cycle. For example, whether we should be moving towards defensive stocks, or – on the contrary – starting to be more aggressive, if we judge the declines to have been sufficient
Diversification is the clearest way to prepare the portfolio for any eventuality. Having at least 10 stocks gives us a reasonable amount of diversification. If we are managing on behalf of others it can be helpful to hold a few more, creating a portfolio of some 20–30 stocks. After that, there need to be strong arguments for increasing the number of stocks.
Pay particular attention to the weight of stocks in the portfolio. As already mentioned, over the years we got it wrong on a number of stocks, more than 40, but crucially they were seldom significant invest- ments. We must be very sure of our investment if we are going to assign it a high weight in our fund, never doing so if the company is indebted.
Changing weights. One of the ways to add value in asset management is by changing the size of positions in stocks
I don’t follow the markets until they close.
dealers or another team member will let me know if a particular stock has experienced a sharp movement or is closing in on a limit that interests us, so as to make the call on whether to buy or sell.
Some fund managers swear by the need to sleep on decisions. I agree. Giving yourself at least a day helps to fend off unnecessary haste.
APPENDIX I 26 Small Ideas and
One Guiding Principle
1. If you want to know about economics, learn German and study the Austrian masters.
2. We should only worry about the economic environment if we have a clear idea of how it might affect the market. Such clairvoyance might come to us once every five years, at most.
3. Own assets, don’t be a creditor. Loans are promises to pay which some- times are blowin’ in the wind.
4. Invest in what you know. The amount isn’t what matters, the crucial thing is knowing your limits, even if it’s your local housing market.
5. Nobody has to invest in anything. Often it’s best to do nothing.
6. If you don’t know what to do, invest in indexes. If you are completely
bewildered, invest in a cheap global index fund and be done with it.
7. Own shares, using any of the vehicles on offer.
8. If you invest directly in stocks, you need to spend time analysing the
competitive position of the company you want to invest in. The rest is
market noise, to be avoided at all costs.
9. It’s about studying companies, not the stock market. Buying a share
should be like buying the whole company. If we are not up for buying
the whole company, we’re not ready to buy a single share.
10. Businesses with a long track record have more chance of surviving than
new ones. Focusing on them will save us a lot of problems.
11. Make sure that the business is more or less capable of sustaining the same position over the next 10 years. If you’re not sure or think new technologies or new consumer trends could affect its market position,
better let it go.
12. If a company is creating value each year and improving its results, don’t
worry why the market hasn’t cottoned on to it. It’s another opportunity to keep investing at a good price.
272 26 SMALL IDEAS AND ONE GUIDING PRINCIPLE
13. The lower the price of a well-researched stock, the greater potential upside on the investment and the less risk involved. The reverse of economic theory is true: the higher the potential return, the lower the risk.
14. Acquaint yourself with the past, but be careful about extrapolating. Things change and future problems can emerge from the least expected places.
15. Speculators and volatility are dear friends: the more, the better our long-term results will be.
16. Lack of liquidity is also an ally. Other investors pay too much for liquidity.
17. Understanding what motivates others to act and how they do it, and our own rationale for what we do, is the essence of prudent and successful investment.
18. If we don’t have the right personality for investing, it’s better not to get involved. Alternatively, work on it. It’s not easy but, with the right guidance, it’s possible to improve our attitude towards investing.
19. It’s important to have firm beliefs (preferably the right ones!), but we must remain open to new ideas and ways of doing things. When we stop learning, we have one foot in the grave.
20. Investing in listed shares involves the greatest information asymmetry possible between buyer and seller. In the private market the seller knows how much the asset is worth (all homeowners know how much their house is worth). With listed shares, small investors spend too little time on analysis and institutional investors are subject to the restrictions of their institution.
21. Getting it right is not only about foreseeing what a company will do; more importantly, it’s about knowing how to distinguish between what the market thinks will happen and what will really happen.
22. Take the less trodden path. Buy what nobody else is buying. In the words of the Italian songwriter Fabrizio de André: be headstrong and go against the grain!
23. Enjoy the process. The journey is more interesting than the final destination.
24. Think. Don’t build models.
25. Read.
26. Cheer up. It’s much better to have been born in 2016 than in 1963.
Guiding Principle: Invest all the savings that you don’t need for the
immediate future in shares.
Some quotes:
The stocks with the highest weights, over 5%, should command our total confidence to avoid a risk of serious damage. The riskiest bets should be kept to a prudent size, never more than 1-2%
We have almost always steered clear of structured products. They are hard to understand and you feel as though you are being charged hidden costs.
There are very few companies able to maintain a durable competitive advantage. Nearly all sectors end up revering towards a reasonable return on capital, which is neither high nor low - between 5% and 10%.
Do not take costs as given. This is a common error when looking at commodity or cyclical companies or companies with novel products.
Volatility is not the best measure of risk. The risk of an investment is the possibility of a permanent loss of purchasing power as a result of making an error of judgement
On Discount rate:
my best alternative investment has always been the funds i have directly managed.
The logic behind price momentum is that if you buy a stock with is already starting to rise then the opportunity cost is lower, reducing the time spent waiting for the rest of the market to wake up to the opportunity. This waiting time is the biggest problem for value investors, because we have a natural impulse to buy too soon and sell too early. In any case, for somebody accustomed to buying shares when they are on the way down, it feels counterintuitive to buy what is rising, making it a challenge to apply this price momentum strategy.
Experience ultimately teaches us that many of these cheap stocks are to be found in challenging sectors or subject major competitiveness challenges, and in the long term can remain eternal duds. Time is NOT on our side with such stocks, since the returns on capital are low and the potential upside is slow to materialize and uncertain. The balance sheet isn't everything.
Cyclical companies. This is probably the easiest and least risky way to find opportunities. Economic cycles need to be tolerated with enormous patience, but it's a reassurance to know that a falling share price is solely a cyclical effect and not due to some unknown competitiveness factor. Cycles always turn around. This means opportunities here are simple to analyze, as we already know what's driving the movement.
The biggest error with the cycle is trying to predict the exact point of inflection, which is a total waste of time. The crucial point is to keep buying throughout the fall, since the best results are obtained from the last investments that are made.
Once we have eventually uncovered some quality stocks which we feel comfortable with, we can begin to increase their concentration in our portfolio. It is vital to diversify the portfolio among minimum number of stocks. The exact figure is not important, although five to six stocks would be a bare minimum. The total number of stocks in the portfolio will depend on how much knowledge we acquire on different companies, but without going beyond a reasonable number, say 15 to 25.
Companies to avoid:
1. Companies with an excessive growth focus.
2. companies which are constantly acquiring other companies.
3. IPO
4. Bsns which are still in their infancy.
5. Companies with opaque accounting
6. Companies with key employees. investment banks, law firms, headhunters..
7. Highly indebted companies.
it’s far better to have a good understand- ing of the business and be able to determine a particular company’s capacity to generate future earnings. The goal is not to precisely forecast earnings each year, but rather to set out a logical range in which they are likely to move according to the business’s characteristics. Doing so requires reading, delving into the companies, asking, learning, and reflecting; not constructing complicated models.
Once we have a figure for normalised earnings (i.e. under stable market conditions – neither boom nor crisis) we can apply an appropriate multiple and arrive at our valuation. Discounting cash flows is a neat stylistic exercise, but adds little to the valuation.
The multiple to apply to these normalised earnings will depend on the quality of the business. A very reasonable – and probably the most suitable – approach is to use the stock market average for the last 200 years.
This average is 15, which is equivalent to an ‘earning yield’ of 6.6% (1 × 100/15), in line with the long-term real return on equities. Setting this as a target return seems pretty sensible. For some outstanding businesses we could apply a somewhat higher margin of between 15 and 20; while for more mediocre businesses, with limited barriers to entry, we should push it down to between 10 and 15. For most businesses, 15 is an appropriate multiple.
Once we have performed the valuation, we should invest where we find the largest discounts relative to this target valuation, calculated according to the multiple. Other qualitative factors will also influence the investment deci- sion, the most important one being the quality of the business and – closely related to that – our confidence in the valuation we have performed. Quality and confidence will help us decide the appropriate weight for each stock in the portfolio.
The economic cycle. Highly cyclical companies will never be in a stable situation, since the ups and downs of the cycle make it hard to know what ‘normal’ earnings look like. It’s not about predicting the cycle, rather it comes down to understanding where we are right now, which may be an extreme, good, bad, or plain normal situation. There are var- ious different methods we can use to adjust earnings in the face of this difficulty: taking the average of results over the last 10 years, adjust- ing for inflation; taking maximum and minimum earnings over the last 10 years and using the mid-point; or any other commonsense criteria.
am constantly tweaking the weights of my stocks according to their performance. If I have positions in two stocks and one goes up by 20% and the other falls by 20%, I almost automatically sell positions in the first to allow me to reinvest in the second.
When we come across an undervalued company which repurchases its shares, we are looking at the only catalyst under the direct influence of the company and its shareholders
In summary, the perfect stock is a preferred share in a medium-size company with a family holding company structure, trading on the wrong market, with a cyclical component and/or long-term investments.
The first step (optional, depending on the circumstances, as we will see) involves trying to acquire some idea about where we are in the cycle. For example, whether we should be moving towards defensive stocks, or – on the contrary – starting to be more aggressive, if we judge the declines to have been sufficient
Diversification is the clearest way to prepare the portfolio for any eventuality. Having at least 10 stocks gives us a reasonable amount of diversification. If we are managing on behalf of others it can be helpful to hold a few more, creating a portfolio of some 20–30 stocks. After that, there need to be strong arguments for increasing the number of stocks.
Pay particular attention to the weight of stocks in the portfolio. As already mentioned, over the years we got it wrong on a number of stocks, more than 40, but crucially they were seldom significant invest- ments. We must be very sure of our investment if we are going to assign it a high weight in our fund, never doing so if the company is indebted.
Changing weights. One of the ways to add value in asset management is by changing the size of positions in stocks
I don’t follow the markets until they close.
dealers or another team member will let me know if a particular stock has experienced a sharp movement or is closing in on a limit that interests us, so as to make the call on whether to buy or sell.
Some fund managers swear by the need to sleep on decisions. I agree. Giving yourself at least a day helps to fend off unnecessary haste.
APPENDIX I 26 Small Ideas and
One Guiding Principle
1. If you want to know about economics, learn German and study the Austrian masters.
2. We should only worry about the economic environment if we have a clear idea of how it might affect the market. Such clairvoyance might come to us once every five years, at most.
3. Own assets, don’t be a creditor. Loans are promises to pay which some- times are blowin’ in the wind.
4. Invest in what you know. The amount isn’t what matters, the crucial thing is knowing your limits, even if it’s your local housing market.
5. Nobody has to invest in anything. Often it’s best to do nothing.
6. If you don’t know what to do, invest in indexes. If you are completely
bewildered, invest in a cheap global index fund and be done with it.
7. Own shares, using any of the vehicles on offer.
8. If you invest directly in stocks, you need to spend time analysing the
competitive position of the company you want to invest in. The rest is
market noise, to be avoided at all costs.
9. It’s about studying companies, not the stock market. Buying a share
should be like buying the whole company. If we are not up for buying
the whole company, we’re not ready to buy a single share.
10. Businesses with a long track record have more chance of surviving than
new ones. Focusing on them will save us a lot of problems.
11. Make sure that the business is more or less capable of sustaining the same position over the next 10 years. If you’re not sure or think new technologies or new consumer trends could affect its market position,
better let it go.
12. If a company is creating value each year and improving its results, don’t
worry why the market hasn’t cottoned on to it. It’s another opportunity to keep investing at a good price.
272 26 SMALL IDEAS AND ONE GUIDING PRINCIPLE
13. The lower the price of a well-researched stock, the greater potential upside on the investment and the less risk involved. The reverse of economic theory is true: the higher the potential return, the lower the risk.
14. Acquaint yourself with the past, but be careful about extrapolating. Things change and future problems can emerge from the least expected places.
15. Speculators and volatility are dear friends: the more, the better our long-term results will be.
16. Lack of liquidity is also an ally. Other investors pay too much for liquidity.
17. Understanding what motivates others to act and how they do it, and our own rationale for what we do, is the essence of prudent and successful investment.
18. If we don’t have the right personality for investing, it’s better not to get involved. Alternatively, work on it. It’s not easy but, with the right guidance, it’s possible to improve our attitude towards investing.
19. It’s important to have firm beliefs (preferably the right ones!), but we must remain open to new ideas and ways of doing things. When we stop learning, we have one foot in the grave.
20. Investing in listed shares involves the greatest information asymmetry possible between buyer and seller. In the private market the seller knows how much the asset is worth (all homeowners know how much their house is worth). With listed shares, small investors spend too little time on analysis and institutional investors are subject to the restrictions of their institution.
21. Getting it right is not only about foreseeing what a company will do; more importantly, it’s about knowing how to distinguish between what the market thinks will happen and what will really happen.
22. Take the less trodden path. Buy what nobody else is buying. In the words of the Italian songwriter Fabrizio de André: be headstrong and go against the grain!
23. Enjoy the process. The journey is more interesting than the final destination.
24. Think. Don’t build models.
25. Read.
26. Cheer up. It’s much better to have been born in 2016 than in 1963.
Guiding Principle: Invest all the savings that you don’t need for the
immediate future in shares.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
September 14, 2025
Libro muy interesante. Leído dos veces, en 2016 , y en 2025. Buen resumen de mercados, y muy completo, ya que además de contar su experiencia Inversora, también incluye buenos apartados temáticos de alto interés, como el de la escuela austriaca, y el de los grandes economistas de referencia como Benjamin, Graham y Warren Buffet. Muy ameno, y francamente recomendable. Un 10
July 21, 2018
Este libro empezó muy sarpado. El autor explica cómo el mismo no sabía nada y empezó por el libro un paso delante de wall Street de tal. Hasta ahí venía muy bien, hasta que empezó a hablar en detalle de cómo su gestora de inversiones había sorteado las crisis y llena páginas de cifras inútiles. Asi hasta más o menos la mitad del libro. De ahí en adelante volvió a remontar explicando cosas útiles que sí sirven estudiar y repasar a futuro. No fue un mal libro pero me es difícil decir lo contrario o recomendarlo.
Algunas cosas útiles que rescaté fueron que invertir a largo plazo le gana a todo tipo de inversión a corto plazo. Siempre se gana ante el largo plazo y en acciones por sobre otros activos. El autor recomienda invertir en un mínimo de 5 acciones y un máximo de 25 para diversificar. Dice que si uno no está dispuesto a comprar toda la empresa (en el caso de poder) no vale la pena comprar ni una sola acción.
Una frase que me dejó tranquila fue "si no sabes que hacer en muchos casos lo mejor es no hacer nada". Hace tiempo que se que la libertad financiera se logra invirtiendo pero no he podido poner en práctica nada aún. No quiero hacer algo sin haberme educado bien primero. Ante la ignorancia absoluta él recomienda invertir en fondos comunes de inversión o lo que se conoce como etfs. Esto no es conveniente en mi país. Los bancos son los que manejan estos fondos y cobran grandes comisiones en comparación con un broker.
Algunas cosas útiles que rescaté fueron que invertir a largo plazo le gana a todo tipo de inversión a corto plazo. Siempre se gana ante el largo plazo y en acciones por sobre otros activos. El autor recomienda invertir en un mínimo de 5 acciones y un máximo de 25 para diversificar. Dice que si uno no está dispuesto a comprar toda la empresa (en el caso de poder) no vale la pena comprar ni una sola acción.
Una frase que me dejó tranquila fue "si no sabes que hacer en muchos casos lo mejor es no hacer nada". Hace tiempo que se que la libertad financiera se logra invirtiendo pero no he podido poner en práctica nada aún. No quiero hacer algo sin haberme educado bien primero. Ante la ignorancia absoluta él recomienda invertir en fondos comunes de inversión o lo que se conoce como etfs. Esto no es conveniente en mi país. Los bancos son los que manejan estos fondos y cobran grandes comisiones en comparación con un broker.
June 26, 2017
García Parames es, probablemente, uno de los mejores gestores de fondos de España.
En este libro transmite su experiencia como analista pasada, la escuela en la que el considera que se basa su análisis de la economía (modelo austriaco, liberal poniendo un adjectivo político) y sus consejos de inversión.
La primera parte parece querer poner fin a especulaciones de su salida de Bestinver y nos hace ver que es una persona con apego a la intelectual y lecturas calmadas. La segunda es una buena introducción a la economía austríaca, pero para los que no estamos de acuerdo con esta escuela puede hacerse tediosa. Y la tercera sobre inversión es fantástica, no enseña nada que no se pueda aprender leyendo y formandose, pero la manera de escribir es profunda y a la vez sencilla.
Ya por último indice con algunos temas variados que para mi es lo peor del libro. Que a estas alturas alguién no crea en el cambio climatico y producido por el co2 es tremendo. Es más si se ve su gráfico, toda temperatura tiene un crecimiento constante que en valor relativo es tremendo para el medio ambiente. Tanto justificar su liberalidad no le ha hecho ver, en este punto, que la libertad individual llega hasta donde se invade la de los demás.
Por lo demás, un excelente libro, ameno y muy bien escrito.
En este libro transmite su experiencia como analista pasada, la escuela en la que el considera que se basa su análisis de la economía (modelo austriaco, liberal poniendo un adjectivo político) y sus consejos de inversión.
La primera parte parece querer poner fin a especulaciones de su salida de Bestinver y nos hace ver que es una persona con apego a la intelectual y lecturas calmadas. La segunda es una buena introducción a la economía austríaca, pero para los que no estamos de acuerdo con esta escuela puede hacerse tediosa. Y la tercera sobre inversión es fantástica, no enseña nada que no se pueda aprender leyendo y formandose, pero la manera de escribir es profunda y a la vez sencilla.
Ya por último indice con algunos temas variados que para mi es lo peor del libro. Que a estas alturas alguién no crea en el cambio climatico y producido por el co2 es tremendo. Es más si se ve su gráfico, toda temperatura tiene un crecimiento constante que en valor relativo es tremendo para el medio ambiente. Tanto justificar su liberalidad no le ha hecho ver, en este punto, que la libertad individual llega hasta donde se invade la de los demás.
Por lo demás, un excelente libro, ameno y muy bien escrito.
April 2, 2020
Le daría 3.5 estrellas pero parece que GoodReads solo conoce los números enteros... Es un libro que combina el dar a conocer cómo es la vida de un gestor de fondos con enseñanzas generales sobre inversión. Con esta división, 4 estrellas para lo primero, y tan solo 3 para lo segundo. Es interesante la primera parte, en la que Paramés explica cómo ha llegado hasta donde ha llegado laboralmente hablando, y todas las partes en las que, de una manera u otra, te hacen ver cómo vive un gestor de fondos su trabajo.
December 30, 2019
Ensayo completo donde explica de manera practica el proceso de inversor, con base a las experiencias del autor.
October 27, 2020
He de confesar que este libro llegó a mis manos por casualidad. Buscando información sobre fondos de inversión descubrí una colección de libros de inversión. El primero de la fila era Invirtiendo a largo plazo y rápidamente me lo compré. Como seguramente te imaginarás, tengo la colección completa, casi leída. Además de estar escrito por un gran experto en inversiones, es una invitación a la lectura y así la he tomado.
Argumento de Invirtiendo a largo Plazo
El libro está dividido en dos grandes bloques. Primeramente se centra en su biografía como gestor e inversor. En el segundo bloque nos presenta su filosofía de inversión y su forma de gestionar fondos. Siempre con un enfoque centrado en el valor y en el largo plazo.
Claves de Invirtiendo a largo plazo
Fernando García Paramés es uno de los inversores españoles más reconocidos por su larga trayectoria de rentabilidad. En la primera parte del libro se centra en su aprendizaje y trayectoria. Desde sus inicios como becario sin mucho interés. Hasta su salida del fondo de inversión para el cual trabajaba como director en 2014. Esta primera parte es un business case muy completo. Especialmente interesante desde el punto de vista psicológico del gestor que a la vez es comercial.
Sin duda, la segunda parte es la que más me ha aportado. Comienza rindiendo homenaje a sus maestros económicos, la escuela austriaca de pensamiento. Posteriormente se centra en el proceso de inversión. Analiza datos desde principios del XIX para demostrar dos cosas fundamentales. Primeramente que las acciones siempre han sido más rentables que otro tipo de activos monetarios a largo plazo. La importancia del tiempo y el interés compuesto para hacer que el ahorro tenga un volumen importante.
Posteriormente el autor se centra en la mejor manera de entrar en el mercado de renta variable o de acciones. También nos propone autores clave y sus teorías para conseguir una rentabilidad mayor a los índices. Además también nos recuerda cómo funciona nuestro cerebro y cómo evitar que juegue a nuestra contra a la hora de invertir.
Opinión de Invirtiendo a largo plazo
Invirtiendo a largo plazo es una lectura muy interesante sobre la inversión en acciones a largo plazo escrita por un experto que realmente siente pasión por lo que hace y muestra un grandísimo conocimiento de la materia. Además, es un primer punto de contacto para seguir leyendo a autores y libros muy interesantes como El inversor Dhando.
Argumento de Invirtiendo a largo Plazo
El libro está dividido en dos grandes bloques. Primeramente se centra en su biografía como gestor e inversor. En el segundo bloque nos presenta su filosofía de inversión y su forma de gestionar fondos. Siempre con un enfoque centrado en el valor y en el largo plazo.
Claves de Invirtiendo a largo plazo
Fernando García Paramés es uno de los inversores españoles más reconocidos por su larga trayectoria de rentabilidad. En la primera parte del libro se centra en su aprendizaje y trayectoria. Desde sus inicios como becario sin mucho interés. Hasta su salida del fondo de inversión para el cual trabajaba como director en 2014. Esta primera parte es un business case muy completo. Especialmente interesante desde el punto de vista psicológico del gestor que a la vez es comercial.
Sin duda, la segunda parte es la que más me ha aportado. Comienza rindiendo homenaje a sus maestros económicos, la escuela austriaca de pensamiento. Posteriormente se centra en el proceso de inversión. Analiza datos desde principios del XIX para demostrar dos cosas fundamentales. Primeramente que las acciones siempre han sido más rentables que otro tipo de activos monetarios a largo plazo. La importancia del tiempo y el interés compuesto para hacer que el ahorro tenga un volumen importante.
Posteriormente el autor se centra en la mejor manera de entrar en el mercado de renta variable o de acciones. También nos propone autores clave y sus teorías para conseguir una rentabilidad mayor a los índices. Además también nos recuerda cómo funciona nuestro cerebro y cómo evitar que juegue a nuestra contra a la hora de invertir.
Opinión de Invirtiendo a largo plazo
Invirtiendo a largo plazo es una lectura muy interesante sobre la inversión en acciones a largo plazo escrita por un experto que realmente siente pasión por lo que hace y muestra un grandísimo conocimiento de la materia. Además, es un primer punto de contacto para seguir leyendo a autores y libros muy interesantes como El inversor Dhando.
August 21, 2023
I enjoyed Parames in the Value Investing with Legends podcast, which prompted me to buy his book. I had high expectations from someone dubbed The Warren Buffett of Spain. The book didn't live up to expectations. In fact, it felt like something that he passes out to clients who are diligencing his fund versus a conversation on investing with his peers.
The most interesting part was when he went year by year talking about markets and performance. This dragged a bit, but was an interesting look at markets and what was happening.
Part Two discussed investments but was very light on the details and heavy on the history. No theory was new. It was nice to see some further detail on family controlled companies and their outperformance. But again, everything was light on the details and left you wanting much more. I had high hopes for the BMW case study, but again it was borderline useless as it was way too high level.
Given how high level the book it, it is best for newly minted investors. But there are so many books to read before this one and once you have read those, this will seem redundant and repetitive. Thus, like so many others, this is an investment book that is probably best left off any serious reading lists.
The most interesting part was when he went year by year talking about markets and performance. This dragged a bit, but was an interesting look at markets and what was happening.
Part Two discussed investments but was very light on the details and heavy on the history. No theory was new. It was nice to see some further detail on family controlled companies and their outperformance. But again, everything was light on the details and left you wanting much more. I had high hopes for the BMW case study, but again it was borderline useless as it was way too high level.
Given how high level the book it, it is best for newly minted investors. But there are so many books to read before this one and once you have read those, this will seem redundant and repetitive. Thus, like so many others, this is an investment book that is probably best left off any serious reading lists.
May 15, 2021
La verdad es que no me lo he podido acabar, me he quedado en el último 25%. Creo que el libro explica y detalla muy bien las situaciones que ha tenido que pasar Paramés para llegar a donde ha llegado.
No obstante, en términos generales, para alguien que no haya invertido en su misma época carece de interés tanto detalle. Saca pocas conclusiones, con lo cual es más histórico que práctico.
Sí me gusta cómo explica la importancia de pensar siempre en el largo plazo y en apostar y confiar en tu estudio por encima de cualquier cosa.
No obstante, en términos generales, para alguien que no haya invertido en su misma época carece de interés tanto detalle. Saca pocas conclusiones, con lo cual es más histórico que práctico.
Sí me gusta cómo explica la importancia de pensar siempre en el largo plazo y en apostar y confiar en tu estudio por encima de cualquier cosa.
May 7, 2020
I was somewhat disappointed by this book at the end. Given the reputation of the author as an investor I was expecting something more advanced and nuanced. Much of the material, apart from personal experiences, is available in any investment book. I appreciated the anecdotes on his daily routines and the reference reading list at the end otherwise I would have rated even lower. Fine for beginners but just look up the reference list at the end for advanced investors.
August 12, 2022
Ensayo muy completo el cual me fascino, iniciando por una cronología de datos por año tal a año tal de como fue avanzando o retrocediendo la bolsa de valores y como puedes aprender del pasado, que oportunidades aprovechar y que errores no cometer y si los cometiste sacar oportunidades de ellos.
Así mismo menciona a grandes inversores como Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Fischer, Buffet entre muchos otros.
Un recorrido agradable en el mundo de las inversiones
Así mismo menciona a grandes inversores como Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Fischer, Buffet entre muchos otros.
Un recorrido agradable en el mundo de las inversiones
January 24, 2019
En algunos momentos se hace muy entretenido, curioso e interesante. Lo negativo es que no es así durante todo el libro. Quizás me lo parezca porque soy nuevo en este mundillo de las inversiones. El libro lo recomiendo ya que, quieras o no, acabas aprendiendo cosas importantes sobre las inversiones en bolsa.
February 20, 2020
A pesar de que por varios momentos pierde fluidez, entrega información valiosa. Destaco el apéndice final y su definición del inversor ideal: "una persona paciente, que invierte a largo plazo, disfrutando del camino y no tanto del resultado, que no se deja llevar por las emociones, con convicciones pero con ganas de aprender".
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
July 15, 2018
Es un libro interesante para conocer las opciones para invertir los ahorros asi como el funcionamiento de la economía. Esta escrito de forma comprensible para todo tipo de lectores y lo considero muy útil para todo aquel que quiera iniciarse en estos temas y empezar a ahorrar para el futuro.
May 22, 2019
bocadillo de magdalena
Bueno, interesante y denso. Es bastante útil para ubicar conceptos generales de la inversión en valor. No está bien organizado y tal vez por ello en mi opinión es difícil de leer y se hace denso, pero eso no quita que monada bueno.
Bueno, interesante y denso. Es bastante útil para ubicar conceptos generales de la inversión en valor. No está bien organizado y tal vez por ello en mi opinión es difícil de leer y se hace denso, pero eso no quita que monada bueno.
August 6, 2019
Un excelente libro que recomiendo, te enseña o te explica una forma diferente de entender como funciona el mundo de las inversiones, y cuales son las mejores opciones, en su opinión para invertir y que te genere ganancias a largo plazo.
May 3, 2020
Argumenta la importancia de las inversiones a medio largo plazo, comparándola con otros sectores. Merece la pena leerlo y sacar tus conclusiones sobre dónde invertir, así como conocer la biografía de Parames
January 15, 2022
Creo que muchas veces para leer sobre inversion volteamos a ver a autores Americanos, siendo que en Espana y Latino America tenemos grandes autores y maravillosos textos como este, libro recomendadisimo de mi parte.
March 25, 2025
Valoración (5 estrellas) un poco sesgada por haber sido el primer libro que leí en la materia, pero siendo mi introducción al tema siento que me ofreció la información necesaria para cambiar mi manera de pensar sobre cómo generar riqueza
January 27, 2018
Excelente libro para inversionistas bursátiles. Especial satisfacción al leer el capítulo dedicado a la escuela austriaca de economía.
April 7, 2018
Paramés es uno de los mejores inversionistas de España, utilizando principalmente la técnica austriaca de economía.
January 24, 2019
Muy interesante la explicación acerca de sus experiencias como inversor. Aunque la parte teórica es un poco más floja, sin entrar a fondo en los conceptos enunciados.
January 9, 2021
CEO del fondo Bestinver cuenta su travesía para llegar a ser el director de uno de los mayores fondos de inversión español
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