A PROVOCATIVE AND INFORMATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUCH TERRORISM
Robert Anthony Pape Jr. is professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. He wrote in the first chapter of this 2005 book, “I have compiled a database of every suicide bombing and attack around the globe from 1980 through 2003---315 attacks in all. It includes every attack in which at least one terrorist killed himself or herself while attempting to kill others; it excludes attacks authorized by a national government, for example North Korea against the South. This database is the first complete universe of suicide terrorist attacks worldwide… The data show that there is little connection between suicide terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism , or any one of the world’s religions… Rather, what nearly all suicide terrorist attacks have in common is a specific secular and strategic goal: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from territory that the terrorists consider to be their homeland. Religion is rarely the root cause, although it is often used as a tool by terrorist organizations in recruiting and in other efforts in service of the broader strategic objective.” (Pg. 3-4)
He adds, “Since September 11, 2001, the United States has responded to the growing threat of suicide terrorism by embarking on a policy to conquer Muslim countries---not simply rooting out existing havens for terrorists in Afghanistan but going further to remake Muslim societies in the Persian Gulf…the close association between foreign military occupations and the growth of suicide terrorist movements in the occupied regions should make us hesitate over any strategy centering on the transformation of Muslim societies by means of heavy military power… the sustained presence of heavy American combat forces in Muslim countries is likely to INCREASE the odds of the next 9/11. To win the war on terrorism, we must have a new conception of victory. The key to lasting security lies not only in rooting out today’s generation of terrorists who are actively planning to kill Americans, but also in preventing the next, potentially larger generation from rising up.” (Pg. 6-7)
He outlines, “The strategic logic of suicide terrorism is aimed at political coercion. The vast majority of suicide terrorist attacks … occur in clusters as part of a larger campaign by an organized group to achieve a specific political goal… Suicide terrorist campaigns are primarily nationalistic, not religious, nor are they particularly Islamic… Further, all of the target states have been democracies, which terrorists see as more vulnerable to coercion than other types of regimes… There is a disturbing reason why suicide terrorism has been rising rapidly: over the past two decades, suicide terrorists have learned that this strategy pays.” (Pg. 21-22)
He continues, “suicide terrorism is mainly a response to foreign occupations… Religion plays a role. However, modern suicide terrorism is best understood as an extreme strategy for national liberation against democracies with troops that pose an imminent threat to control the territory the terrorists view as their homeland.” (Pg. 23)
He summarizes, “At its core, suicide terrorism is a strategy of coercion, a means to compel a target government to change policy… suicide terrorism attempts to inflict enough pain on the opposing society to overwhelm its interest in resisting the terrorists’ demands, and so induce the government to concede, or the population to revolt against the government… Suicide terrorists’ willingness to die magnifies the coercive effects of punishment in three ways. First, suicide attacks are generally more destructive than other terrorist attacks… Second, suicide attacks are an especially convincing way to signal the likelihood of more pain to come… Third, suicide terrorist organizations are better positioned than other terrorist groups to heighten expectations of escalating future costs by deliberately violating norms in the use of violence… by breaching taboos concerning legitimate targets, and by broadening recruitment to confound expectations about the limits of possible terrorists… it suggests the attackers cannot be deterred… Americans would have to expect that future al-Qaeda attackers would be equally willing to die.” (Pg. 27-29)
He acknowledges, “The main reason that suicide terrorism is growing is that terrorists have learned that it works. Even more troubling, the encouraging lessons that terrorists have learned from the experience of suicide terrorist campaigns since 1980 are not, for the most part, products of wild-eyed interpretations or wishful thinking. They are, rather, quite reasonable assessments of the relationship between terrorists’ coercive efforts and the political gains that the terrorists have achieved in many of these cases.” (Pg. 61)
He points out, “of the thirteen suicide terrorist campaigns that were completed during 980-2003, seven correlate with significant policy changes by the target state toward the terrorists’ major political goals… Even a 50 percent success rate is remarkable: international military and economic coercion generally works less than a third of the time, and is especially rare for groups with few other options.” (Pg. 64-65)
He argues, “Suicide terrorism rarely evolves from tiny bands of ordinary terrorists, but instead commonly arises from broad-based nationalist liberation movements, those that typically have pursued guerilla warfare and found that a guerilla strategy is inadequate to achieve their nationalist aspirations… suicide terrorist groups are … deciding whether to use suicide attack as an extension of a broader guerilla warfare strategy.” (Pg. 93)
He suggests, “If al-Qaeda’s truly transnational support were to dry up tomorrow, the group would remain a robust threat to the United States. However, if al-Qaeda no longer drew recruits from the Sunni Muslim countries where there is a heavy American military presence or where the government receives strong U.S. support, the remaining transnational network would pose a far smaller threat and might well simply collapse.” (Pg. 125)
He summarizes, “My theory argues that national resistance to foreign occupation, a democratic political system in the occupying power, and a religious difference between the occupied and occupying societies are the main causal factors leading to the rise of suicide terrorist campaigns… It also explains why a DIFFERENCE in the predominate religion of the two societies… is a main cause for why some foreign occupations by a democratic state escalate to suicide terrorism and others do not.” (Pg. 126)
He notes, “The prevalence of team suicide attacks strongly indicates the presence of altruistic motives among a significant number of suicide attackers. Even if all suicide attackers had some personal motive to die, suicide attackers who work together as a team must also be motivated, at least partly, to achieve a collective purpose, the completion of a group mission that serves a cause beyond their own personal death.” (Pg. 186)
He points out, “In general, suicide attackers are rarely socially isolated, clinically insane, or economically destitute individuals, but are most often educated, socially integrated, and highly capable people who could be expected to have a good future. The profile of a suicide terrorist resembles that of a politically conscious individual who might join a grassroots movement more than it does the stereotypical murderer, religious cult member, or everyday suicide.” (Pg. 200)
He concludes, “Although many had hoped that American and Western counterterrorism efforts would have reduced the threat, the facts show otherwise… the West’s strategy for the war on terrorism is fundamentally flawed… the strategic logic of suicide terrorism---along with the presence of Western combat forces in Iraq and on the Arabian peninsula---remains the core factor driving the threat we face.” (Pg. 251-252) He adds, “[This book] suggests a simple, effective strategy… a return to our traditional policy of ‘offshore balancing’ in the Persian Gulf.” (Pg. 261)
This is a very thought-provoking analysis, that will be “must reading” for anyone interested in the subject of terrorism.