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Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster
How does the government or a business plan for an unimaginable disaster-a meltdown at a nuclear power plant, a gigantic oil spill, or a nuclear attack? Lee Clarke examines actual attempts to "prepare" for these catastrophes and finds that the policies adopted by corporations and government agencies are fundamentally the plans have no chance to succeed, yet they serve both the organizations and the public as symbols of control, order, and stability. These "fantasy documents" attempt to inspire confidence in organizations, but for Clarke they are disturbing persuasions, soothing our perception that we ultimately cannot control our own technological advances.
For example, Clarke studies corporations' plans for cleaning up oil spills in Prince William Sound prior to the Exxon Valdez debacle, and he finds that the accepted strategies were not just unrealistic but completely untenable. Although different organizations were required to have a cleanup plan for huge spills in the sound, a really massive spill was unprecedented, and the accepted policy was little more than a patchwork of guesses based on (mostly unsuccessful) cleanups after smaller accidents.
While we are increasingly skeptical of big organizations, we still have no choice but to depend on them for protection from large-scale disasters. We expect their specialists to tell the truth, and yet, as Clarke points out, reassuring rhetoric (under the guise of expert prediction) may have no basis in fact or truth because no such basis is attainable.
In uncovering the dangers of planning when implementation is a fantasy, Clarke concludes that society would be safer, smarter, and fairer if organizations could admit their limitations.
"An incursion into new territory written with insight and flair, Clarke's book achieves a revolution in understanding plans as an organizational activity-how they come about, why they go awry, and the often-disastrous disconnect between plans and an organization's ability to carry them out. A book that will fascinate general readers, administrators, organization theorists, and disaster buffs, Mission Improbable stands as a valuable companion volume to Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation."—Diane Vaughan, author of The Challenger Launch Decision
For example, Clarke studies corporations' plans for cleaning up oil spills in Prince William Sound prior to the Exxon Valdez debacle, and he finds that the accepted strategies were not just unrealistic but completely untenable. Although different organizations were required to have a cleanup plan for huge spills in the sound, a really massive spill was unprecedented, and the accepted policy was little more than a patchwork of guesses based on (mostly unsuccessful) cleanups after smaller accidents.
While we are increasingly skeptical of big organizations, we still have no choice but to depend on them for protection from large-scale disasters. We expect their specialists to tell the truth, and yet, as Clarke points out, reassuring rhetoric (under the guise of expert prediction) may have no basis in fact or truth because no such basis is attainable.
In uncovering the dangers of planning when implementation is a fantasy, Clarke concludes that society would be safer, smarter, and fairer if organizations could admit their limitations.
"An incursion into new territory written with insight and flair, Clarke's book achieves a revolution in understanding plans as an organizational activity-how they come about, why they go awry, and the often-disastrous disconnect between plans and an organization's ability to carry them out. A book that will fascinate general readers, administrators, organization theorists, and disaster buffs, Mission Improbable stands as a valuable companion volume to Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation."—Diane Vaughan, author of The Challenger Launch Decision
229 pages, Paperback
First published May 1, 1999
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
August 7, 2021
What is the value of a disaster recovery document for a type of disaster that we don't have any experience with at dealing with effectively? Clark explores this question, looking at disaster recovery documents for three different types of disasters: nuclear war, nuclear power plant meltdown, and large oil-spills.
(We've had large oil spills, but Clarke argues that we've never actually dealt with them anywhere near as effectively as disaster recovery documents claim).
The purpose of such docs, Clark argues, is their symbolic value of communicating to stakeholder organizations that the experts understand the risks and have them under control. They function not as plans, but as objects of persuasion.
This book really sharpened my views on the rhetorical value of technical documents. Highly recommended.
(We've had large oil spills, but Clarke argues that we've never actually dealt with them anywhere near as effectively as disaster recovery documents claim).
The purpose of such docs, Clark argues, is their symbolic value of communicating to stakeholder organizations that the experts understand the risks and have them under control. They function not as plans, but as objects of persuasion.
This book really sharpened my views on the rhetorical value of technical documents. Highly recommended.
February 11, 2018
Some good insights, but the main examples chosen are so extreme that I think we missed out on seeing the subtleties of how uncertainties are rhetorically transformed into risks in more realistic or commonly found plans. I would have liked more discussion of borderline cases where it is not clear that the plans are fantasy documents.
Nonetheless, I will forever think about “plans” differently. I now agree that in addition to their technical utility, plans are also a symbol meant to convince an audience of something. Namely that the situation is under control. That the holder of the plan has the control.
The discussion of how to manufacture expertise was instructive as well. To become an expert, you must be a part of an important organization, convince an audience that you know more than they do, and be able to convince them that they should agree with you — often by finding a way to mute other competing voices, leaving only your own. Most interestingly, those steps may be taken in any order as long as they are all taken.
Overall it was a quick read due to its short length, but I found it rather difficult to read each page quickly (e.g. skimming). I think the author uses too many parenthetical phrases offset by commas. It was a bit nonlinear of an argument.
Nonetheless, I will forever think about “plans” differently. I now agree that in addition to their technical utility, plans are also a symbol meant to convince an audience of something. Namely that the situation is under control. That the holder of the plan has the control.
The discussion of how to manufacture expertise was instructive as well. To become an expert, you must be a part of an important organization, convince an audience that you know more than they do, and be able to convince them that they should agree with you — often by finding a way to mute other competing voices, leaving only your own. Most interestingly, those steps may be taken in any order as long as they are all taken.
Overall it was a quick read due to its short length, but I found it rather difficult to read each page quickly (e.g. skimming). I think the author uses too many parenthetical phrases offset by commas. It was a bit nonlinear of an argument.
December 4, 2020
This is a terrific book, but I'm biased because the book's main theme supports the theory I've been espousing that evacuation plans for major urban centers are fantastical and ultimately dangerous. We need realistic plans, and we to stop fooling ourselves that we can safely and efficiently evacuate large cities.
This book will be a central reference for an upcoming paper I'm writing. I am glad that I writing. I'm glad that I happened upon it.
This book will be a central reference for an upcoming paper I'm writing. I am glad that I writing. I'm glad that I happened upon it.
December 1, 2014
Books theme is that organization and experts use plans as a form of rhetorical tools to calm audience.
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September 24, 2014Lee Clarke (B.S. '79)
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews