The New Ballgame: The Not-So-Hidden Forces Shaping Modern Baseball

by Russell A. Carleton

Watching a game of baseball today means witnessing phenomena that would have been novel, if not completely unheard of, not so long ago.

Starting pitchers sling 100 mile-per-hour heat for just four or five innings before departing; third basemen often station themselves much closer to second (to say nothing of the shortstop's whereabouts); home runs and strikeouts dominate at-bats; all while the length of contest tips toward the four-hour mark.

There's no getting around the game looks different now. And as Major League Baseball scrambles with rule changes, equipment modifications, labor negotiations, and more, fans are left grasping for the true essence of this beloved pastime among the moving pieces.

In The New Ballgame, Russell Carleton (The Shift) deftly indentifies and examines the many levers and inflection points that have shaped the game into what we see on the field today. Through a singular blend of statistical analysis, history, and cognitive science, readers will trace the rapid evolution of the modern game while contemplating the sport in an entirely new way.

Blending incisive research with affable storytelling, Russell Carleton delivers a kaleidoscopic view on modern baseball in this welcome, revelatory work.

Genres: Baseball, Sports, Nonfiction

257 pages, Kindle Edition

Published June 13, 2023

Reviews

[Jibraun · Rating 2 out of 5]

I enjoyed Russell Carleton's last book The Shift, so I was excited to read this one as well. I just have to say that this book didn't do it for me though. It seemed unfocused with chapters thrown together with some half-hearted attempts to tie them together. The analysis and evaluation also seemed dated, throwing in recent MLB rules changes probably during writing of the book. And beyond that, this book, I would assume, is marketed towards passionate baseball fans. But a passionate fan would (or at least should) know a sizeable amount of the information in the book from the surfeit of smart baseball writers working in the industry. So the book did not provide much in the way of new insight or information to me about the game, industry, in-game play, ways to improve it, etc. 2.25 stars

[Joe · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is probably a five-star book that for me -- I'm just not the audience for it -- is a three-star read. So I split the difference. Russell, one of my favorite writers, is covering ground that 95% of baseball fans need to have covered, and his background as a counselor means he covers it in ways accessible to his proverbial "Ed from Lakewood." It's a good book, something most fans will get a lot from in the run-up to Opening Day.

[Lance · Rating 4 out of 5]

If I were to be told about a book on baseball analytics, I would think that it’s all graphs, spreadsheets numbers and acronyms for the various formulas used in modern statistics. This book by Russell A. Carleton does contain all of that - but it is not what I would think a book like this is all about.

Instead, Carleton uses his time as a clinical therapist to explain the thought process behind the shift to these statistics and their use by baseball teams.Something he refers to frequently throughout the book is that there are 5 basic facts about every person and he connects that to the topic of the chapter. At first it felt annoying but it was better as the book went along.

That was also the case as he presented his baseball topics. While some seemed to make sense from the start, such as the changes in the use of the sacrifice bunt and the decline of its use age, there were other topics that I felt he went in various directions. The best example of that was the chapter that asks if analytics “ruined” baseball. The information is good, but it jumps all over the place. That goes from the length of games to bunts to stolen bases to the low pay and poor working conditions for minor league players. Until the en of the chapter I couldn’t see how it tied all up.

However, that didn’t take away what made this book enjoyable- it was a normally dry topic that thanks to Carleton’s writing, it was a much more palatable item to read about. I felt that a fan will understand a lot more about the reasons why teams hire these data analysts and make decisions based on this data. Overall a very good read.

[Kyle Lobner · Rating 4 out of 5]

Russell Carleton remains one of the best at getting me to rethink things I thought I knew about baseball, but he made me work for it here. This book is under 250 pages and somehow still feels long, but then the points worth exploring felt rushed through.

A whole book based on the chapter about the minor leagues would have been more useful, or a book on the intersection between baseball and psychology/human development. Instead, this is a long recap of the recent game that occasionally pauses to offer insight on those topics.

[Ian Rabin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Genuinely interesting for the baseball nerd in me. But you need to be a baseball nerd first and foremost for this book to be up your alley.

[Chris Jaffe · Rating 5 out of 5]

This got off to a slow start for me, but I really warmed up to it as it went along. Carleton is looking at some major issues and changes affecting baseball and isn't so much offering concrete answers to them as he is just trying to explain and understand what's going on.

An early chapter tries to compare players now vs. players then to determine how much the game has advanced. Reading it, I was a little disappointed because the narrative framework he establishes (how far back would you have to go for a current .500 team to be pennant-worthy?) isn't really paid off. However, he does look at a few aspects and how that has improved things (bigger players, which has pros and cons on performance; faster pitches, bigger international talent pool). While I think the framwork for the chapter could be improved, it sets up the template for ensuing chapters - look at a chapter and try to really delve into how things are changing and what that means.

He looks at unexpected impacts of the DH rule (especially on how pitchers are used). He notes why the bullpen grew as it did. (It used to be where you put guys who couldn't hack it as starters, but now with an increased talent pool, everyone's got a half-dozen relivers who can throw 95 MPH. Thus a reliever is a better choice than a starter who's lost 10% of his zip, and that wasn't the case in Nolan Ryan's Angels days). He looks at unexpected impacts of shifting. (It's far more effective on lefties. It's led to increase in strikeouts). Players are becoming more multi-positional across the game, leading to more fluidity overall, which can be cause & effect of larger bullpens. Teams use more of their benches in general as starters have fewer PA, percentage-wise. The rise of strikeouts has come as the game has gone to maximize efficiency, which makes it tricky to try to counteract that. He has a chapter on analytics ruining baseball (hey, it makes things more efficient - but is that always the most entertaing?). He makes a nice point there that people are drawn to sports not just for winning/losing but for storylines, and as every team apes the same approach, that makes the stories less engaging, which can hurt the overall appeal of the game. He follows that up with a chapter on how analytics can fix baseball. He has a nice discussion of WAR, noting how players accrue value there based on the negative space in the gap between his performance and that of a theoretical backup. (What I just wrote sounds generic, but I really liked how he phrased it on page 193: it's about value, not performance). Maybe his best chapter is near the end where he notes how the way teams treat minor league players is actively stupid. They suffer from overcrowded housing, potential food scarcity, and all matter of personal stress.

A theme in the book as it goes around is a critical eye on analytics itself, which is interesting given that's what he is. Sure, he believes in it, but that doesn't mean he thinks we should have an uncrtitical eye towards it. If we do, we end up with a game that's more about efficienty than enjoyment - and how enjoyable is that? It becomes eaiser to look at minor leagues as numbers on the balance sheet, so underpay them and treat them poorly when they are prospects.

It's a very nuanced and insightful book. It does give a sense of how forces are shaping modern baseball.

[Zach Koenig · Rating 4 out of 5]

As I expected from Russell Carleton--author of the previous "The Shift" tome which I thoroughly enjoyed a few years back--"The New Ballgame" is a whip-smart piece on modern baseball, including how we got here and what can be done to potentially improve the product. Carleton expertly nails (and actually presages, considering this book's 2022 copyright date) many of MLB's analytically-based issues such as the demise of starting pitching, a meteoric rise in the strikeout rate across the board, the treatment (poor) of minor league ballplayers, and the difference between the game being efficient vs. fun. Truth be told, I don't think I've ever come across a book that effectively sums up baseball's "state of the union" in this accurate a way. Truly insightful stuff.

The only issue? One of timing (something Carleton himself is even very open about within these pages). If you had read this book before the 2023 season, you'd likely be blown away by Carleton's insights and suggestions. After 2023? Well, to their credit (and Carleton's, really), MLB actually implemented many of those exact notions! Carleton's overall argument here is that MLB needs to be pro-active on making the game fun/watchable to fans as opposed to just "natural correction" (which analytics will no longer allow)--and that's exactly what MLB did in '23 with the pitch clock and bigger bases. So, kind of a catch-22: Carleton was so ahead-of-the-curve here that his ideas were implemented fast enough to make some of this specific writing obsolete in real-time.

Overall, I'll settle on 4/5 stars for "The New Ballgame". Perhaps a 5/5 had I read it a bit closer to publication date, but any way you slice it still a solid baseball effort that is a perfect combination of research/explanation and suggestions/ideas.

[Andreas · Rating 4 out of 5]

The premise of this book was mostly: identify a trend in how the game has been played, show (using a time series line chart) how that trend has changed since the 1950s, and then dabble a bit about explanations for why that's the case. Intersperse some personal commentary and pepper some comments about psychological reasons for WHY this is controversial - the author is a mental health expert with a PhD in clinical psychological. Some of these insights were great.

I especially liked the argument about how important it is to develop the minor leagues, certainly the environment in which minor leaguers play/live. Most of your team are not stars - and if you can make your "replacement" players 10% better by taking better care of them, ensuring they sleep, eat, and live adequately - that is worth more than you may think. It builds depth.

In general this book is not very provocative, nor statistically deep, but it didn't need to be. For me, a stats fan who used to love baseball growing up, but hasn't followed it closely for 10 years, it was perfect. Would recommend as a a father's day gift for a slightly nerdy dad, or as a refresher about baseball for a casual or lapsed fan.

[Murray · Rating 4 out of 5]

As a clinically trained psychologist with a passion for baseball, Carleton has written a book with deep insights on how the game of baseball has evolved over the last ten years. He makes a strong case for how the 'short burst relievers' and starters lasting less than six innings are the greatest disrupters that have turned the game inside out. This is inside-inside baseball, with some of it being very complex, but with his charts and graphs and well-written prose, Carleton makes it easy to follow. One of the most compelling chapters, toward the end, is about how MLB teams could do a much better job nurturing underpaid and underfed players in their minor league systems. He clearly shows that many talented athletes turn away from the game before reaching the majors and how detrimental that is to a team's bottom line. In essence, he points out how expensive it is to sign free agents compared to the far lower cost of feeding and housing minor league players who would stay under team control for six years. This book is really for the hardcore fans, but you'll love it.

[Kyle Beacom · Rating 4 out of 5]

Russlell A. Carleton is a total baseball nerd, and I'm here for it! So, what are the key takeaways?

The average MLB is much taller and heavier than he was 30, 40, or 50 years ago, with a BMI of 27.5.

High velocity arms have been prioritized on rosters over speedy legs. In fact, most MLB teams now carry eight relievers on their roster, something that was not heard of only a few decades ago.

Strikeouts and home runs are both up in the MLB. Much of this has to do with hitters not changing their approach at the plate with two strikes. This makes for longer games and longer plate appearances (The average MLB plate appearance is roughly 3.9 pitches).

Lastly, the MLB is trying to curb some of these things in the past few years with pitch clocks, limitations on defensive shiftings, and "ghost runners" in extra innings.

[Dave Cottenie · Rating 4 out of 5]

“The New Ballgame” begins with a down to earth introduction to the author and his motivations regarding baseball and advanced analytics. Many scenarios are brought down to a normal person’s level, but at times the book gets too deep into the numbers. Plenty of charts and graphs to back up positions and findings. Overall a really good read that can drag a bit at times, especially when it comes to the explanation and use of the statistic WAR.

[Stuart Shiffman · Rating 2 out of 5]

The title of the book fairly captures the basics of the author’s position. For me the book has too many numbers and charts. Yes baseball is changing, but this book is not very helpful in analyzing the change. Other writers do a better job describing where baseball has been and where it may be going.

[AndrewMillerTheSecond · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you’re an avid baseball fan already versed in analytics, this book might be a repetition of some concepts you already know. Otherwise, this is a short but insightful account of the trends governing modern baseball. I appreciate Carleton’s commentary most of the time; he is a supporter of analytics without being a partisan, and admits when he thinks it takes something out of the game. The book doesn’t have a narrative thread as much as it has a series of loosely connected chapters all related to some specific development in the game. Combined with his casual writing style and pithy phrases, Carleton is almost trying to write some sort of half-baked memoir. Some might not a fan of that style, but I still believe his recounting of how the “new ballgame” works is worth a fan’s time.

[David Go · Rating 3 out of 5]

Includes a lot of data to back up trends that have been evident in MLB… informative but also kind of boring.

[Brian Rothbart · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 stars. It's interesting, but a little too long and dry.

[Quincy Wheeler · Rating 4 out of 5]

Always worth-reading Carleton on baseball

[Lonnie Smith · Rating 4 out of 5]

Maybe 3.5 stars.

There is nothing particularly earth-shattering in this for anyone who is tapped into the nerdy side of baseball, but it was a fun read.

I love Russell’s writing, so spending a few hours with him is always a win.