A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes.
A quick read. The author summarizes political science research on the extent to which campaigns "matter" in determining the ultimate outcome of presidential elections in comparison with other more fundamental factors like international and economic conditions. The author then analyzes the extent to which public opinion changes in response to specific campaign events (debates, conventions, etc.) The final conclusion is that national conditions set the "parameters" within which campaign events can exert smaller, but significant effects. So basically, the answer is yes, campaigns matter, but not as much as we often think they do. Economic and international factors matter more.