Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the World

by Dambisa Moyo

Commodities permeate virtually every aspect of modern daily living, but for all their importance—their breadth, their depth, their intricacies, and their central role in daily life—few people who are not economists or traders know how commodity markets work. Almost every day, newspaper headlines and media commentators scream warnings of impending doom--shortages of arable land, clashes over water, and political conflict as global demand for fossil fuels outstrips supply. The picture is bleak, but our grasp of the details and the macro shifts in commodities markets remain blurry. Winner Take All is about the commodity dynamics that the world will face over the next several decades. In particular, it is about the implications of China's rush for resources across all regions of the world. The scale of China's resource campaign for hard commodities (metals and minerals) and soft commodities (timber and food) is among the largest in history. To be sure, China is not the first country to launch a global crusade to secure resources. From Britain's transcontinental operations dating back to the end of the 16th century, to the rise of modern European and American transnational corporations between the mid 1860's and 1870's, the industrial revolution that powered these economies created a voracious demand for raw materials and created the need to go far beyond their native countries. So too is China's resource rush today. Although still in its early stages, already the breadth of China's operation is awesome, and seemingly unstoppable. China's global charge for commodities is a story of China's quest to secure its claims on resource assets, and to guarantee the flow of inputs needed to continue to drive economic development. Moyo, an expert in global commodities markets, explains the implications of China's resource grab in a world of diminishing resources.

Genres: Economics, Politics, Nonfiction, China, Africa, Business, History

272 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2012

About the author

Dr. Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who writes on the macroeconomy and global affairs.

She is the author of the New York Times Bestsellers "Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa", "How The West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly And the Stark Choices Ahead" and "Winner Take All: China s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World".

Ms. Moyo was named by Time Magazine as one of the “100 Most Influential People in the World”, and was named to the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders Forum. Her work regularly appears in economic and finance-related publications such as the Financial Times, the Economist Magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

She completed a doctorate in Economics at Oxford University and holds a Masters degree from Harvard University. She completed an undergraduate degree in Chemistry and an MBA in Finance at the American University in Washington D.C..

Reviews

[Brit Cheung · Rating 4 out of 5]

I misjudged the book at first. I thought it's a book criticizing China's mass investment in Africa and thought the author would reproach China's national behavior as a new economy colonialism,the orthodox stereotype. but seemingly it is not so .

Let us put the epigram from Roosevelt here first as the keynote:
If we shrink from a hard contest where men must win at hazard of their lives and at risk of the people they hold dear, then the stronger and bolder peoples will pass us by and win for themselves the dominance of the world. Sounds overwhelming...

Will do the review asap:)

1.
Reserving judgments is a matter of infinite hope
First impression of a book doesn't always count and it may lead you to miscalculations. I "thought" this book would be tinged with a perspective of criticizing China's energy policy. Actually it is rather impartial compared to a great deal of other articles. Misunderstandings come from inappropriate preconceptions, so keeping mind wide open and reserving judgments could be not only a virtue but a necessity, or else we would plunge into blunders.

2. Was China's massive demand for resources auspicious or ominous for the world?
It is complicated to define but my answer is the positive one.
I don't understand the hypothesis that people should deprecate China's global procurement and deem the trades between nations kind of pillage and plunder. Trades between nations can only be conducted out of willingness and based on their own national interests. China is the first or second largest trading partners of not a few countries and it maintains relatively positive images in international trading conducts. If the supply and demand pattern is not congruous with each other's interests, the trades could not be likely because you can always find an alternative in this global trading system.
Let us ponder a very simple assumption: Is China's economic slowdown good for the global economy? When China is ushering into its economic new normal and cutting down its imports of mass products and resources and raw materials, a lot of countries can feel the pain.
LET us be more realistic and face the harsh truth, no country could be exempt from the current global economic feebleness and could keep itself intact.

3. Forewarned is forearmed

"China seems to be the only country that is preparing for this eventuality in a sustainable way.But this leaves the important question of what happens when ostensibly has access to available resources and the rest of the world doesn't? " For this question from the author, I guess I understand the author's disturbing worry. Every country should consider its future but this worry should not be overstated. The technology innovation is an option and the cooperation of all nations is another.(am I too optimistic about the future?)

The Community of Sharing Destiny for mankind espoused by China is seemingly a mere ideal in papers? I guess the government is seriously brooding over this for a long time. But it can only be advanced and achieved by the collaborations of the entire international community.
If you think the Chinese government advances this advocacy out of nowhere and it won't take it seriously, you just don't understand the Chinese government.
They may have done something unfavorable to its people,like the stringent censorship, but it always keeps its words. Once it promises something for the whole world, it will get it done regardless of the plights. And perhaps this is a facet of the Chinese government you don't know before.

[Book Shark · Rating 4 out of 5]

Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the World by Dambisa Moyo

"Winner Take All" is an even-handed assessment on China's race for resources and the implications this has for the rest of the world. The book's spotlight is on China's central role in the commodities dynamics. Best-selling author, international economist and a native of Zambia, Dr. Moyo has written a professional yet accessible book that tackles the following broad themes: economic implications of China's ascendency, China's growing financial reach and its implications for the workings of the global commodity markets, and the social and political implications of China's quest for resources. In general, the author succeeds in addressing the main themes through substance rather than with style and flair. This 272-page book is broken out in two parts: Part I - China's Rush for Resources and Part II - What China's Resource Rush Means for the World.

Positives:
1. Well-researched and well-written book that is accessible for the masses.
2. An even-handed book. The author seems very fair and logical. Her arguments and assessments are backed by sound economic perspectives. She's not afraid to be critical while remaining objective.
3. Dr. Moyo has the right background and great credentials to write such books. I'm also happy to see a female voice who is a native of Zambia in an otherwise male-dominated arena providing some refreshing and thought-provoking insights.
4. The author lays out early on what this book is all about and proceeds to methodically support her arguments with sound economic logic and knowledge. I like how the author considers various points of view of an issue.
5. Effective use of charts, stats and facts that add value to the narrative of the book.
6. Does a wonderful job of establishing China's economic agenda.
7. Enlightening look at the global commodity complex. The demand pressures on: arable land, water, energy, and minerals. "The world's most important commodities have one crucial thing in common: they are increasingly becoming scarce, as the earth's (finite) natural resources supply has not adequately kept up with the rising demand". Excellent snapshot of the world's resource supply. Kudos.
8. China's effective three-pronged approach into international resource markets. How China does it. Excellent narrative on this.
9. Amazing facts and thought-provoking statements. "China's fleet has also mirrored its growing importance in shipping, increasing from 1,367 to 3,127 vessels in the decade between 2001 and 2011".
10. China's and the world's biggest challenges.
11. The inner working of the global commodity markets. Perhaps the most complicated aspect of this book but the author keeps it manageable.
12. The perceived threats of China's growing role to the rest of the world. China's commodity campaign. Excellent points.
13. Three unique characteristics of credit-market crises and the two incontrovertible instances when government intervention is warranted.
14. China's strategy in practice and how the hosts perceive it. Is it beneficial?
15. Global food insecurity, it comes down to: food waste, misallocation of food, and policies that disincentives food production. One of the strongest points of the book.
16. Shale and its prospects for transforming the energy sector. Also an interesting look at nuclear energy.
17. A look at pollution.
18. The clash and potential for violence over resources. Demand-supply imbalances.
19. You can only come up with good answers if you ask the right questions...the author asks all the right questions. A global effort to address the questions.
20. Does a real good job of summarizing her main point.
21. Links to notes worked great and bibliography provided

Negatives:
1. The book tends to be repetitive. She hammers certain points and comes back to them frequently. One thing is clear you will absorb what China's main goals are and that is a goal of the book.
2. The book lacks panache. The writing style is a bit stiff and lacks flair. It's not very engaging even though I do feel it was effective.
3. Some acronyms were not properly defined. As an example, BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent).
4. It doesn't say much about Chinese culture it's all about the economics and implications.
5. A few times the book wasn't consistent at one point it describes as 800 million Chinese as living in poverty while in another occasion it was a billion. I'm an engineer, I'm sorry I notice these things.
6. I'm always a little leery of referencing the Heritage Foundation the same outfit that denies climate change while the author clearly accepts it. That being said it appears the database referenced is useful.

In summary, this is a very effective and even-handed book. The author takes her emotions out of it and proceeds to support her arguments with sound logic and economics. My only main gripe with the book has to do with the stiff, as-a-matter-of-fact style. A little more engaging style would have made the book more enjoyable for readers. Be that as it may, I have a much better understanding of China's growing role in the global economy and for that I thank Dr. Mojo. If you are interested in global economics and the race for scarce resources, this is the book to read!

Further recommendations: "Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa" by Damisa Mojo, "The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality" by Richard Heinberg, "The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future Of Our Economy, Energy, And Environment" by Chris Martenson, "Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil" by Peter Maass, and "The Post-American World: Release 2.0" by Fareed Zakaria.

[Max · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good book! Personally, I have loathed the European centrism towards Africa and the seemingly unbreakable aid-cycle and victimization. Very rarely do I read a book that shares this view, and DM's WTA is one of the few. She shows that China approaches African countries as trading partners, providing cash and infrastructure projects in exchange for their commodities. Not as helpless victims that need pity. I'm so happy to see Africans like DM have also opened their eyes.
However, this was not DM's main argument. She claims that China is the only country in the world taking the apparent upcoming commodities shortage serious. They are the only ones that have a long term strategy to secure inflow of basic commodities, such as copper, wheat, ore, oil, etc. Western countries are not aware of the urgency and will be left in the cold when disaster strikes, somewhere in the near future. Disaster is described as an immediate shortage of commodities and a dramatic price increase. I buy this argument partly. Yes, a commodity shortage will occur in the coming 15 years, and yes, China should be very concerned as they lack the ability to feed themselves. But we will not feel the pain as badly as DM describes. Prices will go up, but as per standard economic reasoning the potential for new production/mining and substitution will increase as well. Otherwise too-costly production methods will suddenly become economically viable and the high prices will open opportunities for alternatives. You can see this happening with the oil market already, other commodities will undergo similar trends.
Despite my reservations about the bleak outlook, I do support the point that the Chinese government is a showcase of sound decision-making. No internal squabbling, but focus on future of the people. Europe should take their example.

[David Bruns · Rating 4 out of 5]

I saw the author interviewed on Bill Maher and decided to pick up the book before my next trip to China.

I'm glad I did. It helped to put snippets of news stories about China and expansionist plans in developing countries into real context. China has a plan - it's a long-range, comprehensive, global reaching quest for raw materials that will fuel the engine of their economy for decades to come. Theirs is not a mission to improve the global standard of living, but if a country needs a new port to enable them ship oil to China they know how to get it done without the constipation of congressional action that we live with in a democracy.

If Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty tells you how "extractive" economic and political institutions like those in China will ultimately fail, Moyo gives you a convincing reason why their progress pre-failure might be more than we can handle.

[Iván · Rating 3 out of 5]

Un interesante libro sobre China y su expansión global buscando materias primas: recursos energéticos, tierras, alimentos, etc.

[Andrew · Rating 3 out of 5]

One-Minute Review
Big bad China? In Winner Take All, Dambisa Moyo, who burst onto the literary-political scene with Dead Aid, suggests that China’s growing influence isn’t all bad. While recent books like Mark Steyn’s After America and Niall Ferguson’s Civilization exhibit concern about the West's declining economic and political clout, Moyo’s new book describes more nuanced global changes. China’s increasing consumption of and control over the world’s finite resources do drive up commodity costs for North American business and consumers, but also drives greater development and builds more infrastructure in Africa than decades of failed aid projects. Moyo, a PhD Oxon, economic writer, and former World Bank employee is uniquely positioned to criticize Western aid programmes. She deploys reputable and convincing facts to make her arguments, pointing out the benefits China offers to the populous demographic south. Viewed from this perspective, China’s growing influence begins to look like a good thing, while naysayers in the small rich countries of Europe and North America are definitely in the minority. Winner Take All is a primer for a key topic of this century and important for anyone wanting to understand the intersection between politics and resources.

[Liz Murray · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is probably the first economics book I've read, but it goes far beyond simple economics. I saw Dambisa Moyo on The Daily Show and I remember thinking she was maybe a bit pro China. While in South Africa a couple of people I met mentioned the Chinese influence and they didn't speak highly of it however after reading this book I see it in greater perspective. China is helping build infrastructure in many parts of Africa, including hospitals, schools and roads. There will always be reservations and Moyo is far from a China cheerleader but gives credit where credit is due. She grew up in Zambia so is not speaking as an outsider but as someone who intimately knows the pros and cons of foreign investment in Africa. Winner Take All is not all about Chinese investment in Africa but I read it for that purpose. I did skip some parts of the book but overall I found it a clearly written book aimed at the general populace and not economic experts. It's a book I'll hold onto as a reference book. To understand what changes the world faces this is almost essential reading.

[Paul · Rating 3 out of 5]

The introductory (first 4) chapters and the final chapter are really interesting as Moyo presents an array of facts to support the premise of the book.
In between though, is a lot of trollop. There’s page after page of economic/financier/hedge manager jargon with very little relevance to the theme as a whole and some rather poorly derived assumptions based on very little data.
For example, Moyo suggests that the western views on China are biased, so chases it with almost 15 pages of pro-China bias, providing no balance and just appearing hypocritical.
Moyo also references the Pew report frequently, initially saying that it shows Africa’s attitudes to China and the USA, but then in a subsequent chapter she lists the African nations included in the report and there are just 10 of them! That’s 10/53 and apparently this constitutes enough to deem it the whole of Africa, as a Geographer I am shocked as this goes against everything we teach our youngest students about Africa - that it is not a single place with one view, but that it is as diverse (if not more so in most aspects) than anywhere else in the world.

[AJ Payne · Rating 3 out of 5]

Audiobook.

I really wanted to like this a lot more than I actually did. There are a lot of interesting tidbits in here (though now a bit dated since it was all written a decade ago), and it’s pretty even handed in exploring the potential good of Chinese investment and the potential bad of resource monopoly. Interesting, but I found it a bit…bland.

Part of my problem may have been the audiobook, so I don’t want to judge the writing too harshly. The guy who read it sounded so robotic I had a really hard time paying attention to him, which made it harder to like the book. Too bad.

[Sookie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Moyo provides a nuanced look at the world of commodity by comparing China, her study for the subject matter, with BRICS, USA and other countries that have naturally occurring mineral resources. Though not absolute, this book acts a foundation and opens up lot of conversations involving pollution, over consumption of natural resources etc.

[Alex Lee · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a very clear book about how China's strategy of buying up the world's assets is a threat to international security... as the hoarding of such assets is both an indication that

1) China needs to secure resources for itself if it is to keep its prosperity growing

and

2) this hoarding is in anticipation that the world encounter real resource limitation in the near future.

Moyo argues that this economic strategy is a political one, which, combined with the belt and road initiative has been designed to help keep its population prosperous because the government's oppressiveness is matched by the government's incompetency in controlling its people. China's soft tools are just ways to create political well being for Western politicians so that China can continue to do what it sees fit, as with building coal factories. One can suggest that the United State's satiation of its population with cheap food and cheap products from China works the same way. We are distracted with our stuff, as we are made to get the richer richer.

This is one way to see the book. Really Moyo talks in very clear terms, connecting the dots for us so that we may heed her argument about Chinese economic aggression, as a precursor to Chinese military aggression. She compares this to how the US could avoid oil addiction if it wanted to, but continues to bow to dictators abroad. Well, that's a nice comparison.

[Oliver · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was the second book I've read by Moyo, the first was Dead Aid and htis left me equally as impressed. She tackles another deeply interesting and relevant topic- China's entrepreneurial efforts in the world and what implications it will have.

I really thought her discussion of monopsony was really interesting, not only for the word itself, but for the concept. Could it really be possible that China is a singular buyer for key resources? Wouldn't market forces impede that? Unless China was able to pay prices above the market value which other countries were not able to match. I think this has the deppest consequences for fellow developing countries who need key resources like gold, oil, copper and others, especially in Africa.

I disagree somewhat with her assessment that China has been welcomed with open arms in Africa. When I was in Malawi, as well as South Sudan, Tanzania and Kenya, I felt that the general populous had a bitterly negative reaction to the Chinese presence, as they were taking jobs and local economy away from Africans. This may not reflect the face and agreement that the government's perspective on Chinese ODI, but it reflects the ants eye view, at least at a micro level.

Delving deep into the economic principles behind carry (cotango and backwardation), volatility, and correlation in the commodities market was also supremely interesting, and something I'd never heard of before.

The argument that Moyo makes that China is taking steps to make itself more sustainable by stockpiling and buying resources to facilitate future development is an interesting one. Still, I would strike back that stockpiling and sustainability are not analogous. Moyo makes the repeated point that resources are finite and populations growing, and this will inevitably lead to shortages, and China seems to be the only state trying to buffer themselves, outside of states with sovereign wealth funds. This may lead to resource domination by China down the road, or conflict.

Like any good academic, she poses an interesting argument without saying much about what to do about it except use less, recycle more, scale back miltary spending, tax fuel consumption, and endorse GMOs or technological food solutions, just a dozen pages at the end.

This is up to us.

[Dan · Rating 3 out of 5]

I enjoyed Winner Take All as an economics primer where the commodities markets are concerned; there was much attention given to such things as speculation in the commodities markets, when and how governments should intervene and what such intervention does to commodity prices.

China almost seemed to be a secondary focus after the basic explanations of commodity markets, although such explanations to a layman such as myself were invaluable to understanding the overall thesis of the book.

Where I found the book lacking was in its forecasts for the future. The author presents several scenarios for dealing with the coming commodity scarcities that focus only on currently available technologies - GM foods for example. This may be a practical approach, but if we are discussing the coming decades it is important - at least in my view - to discuss emerging and developing technologies such as vertical urban farming. Still in the conceptual phases, it is feasible that by 2050 when the earth's population reaches nine billion, this method of food production will be put to use.

Also, little mention is made of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar - which China is heavily investing in - and how in future decades these might curb China's insatiable appetite for oil and coal.

These issues may be slightly off topic, but I found myself asking these questions consistently throughout my reading. As a result, the book felt incomplete in its assessment of what is a global threat to humanity.

Overall this is a worthwhile read, very well written and researched. It is largely apolitical and offers an honest assessment of China - it's strengths and weaknesses - as well as geopolitics as a whole.

Recommended as a good starting point to understand the complexities of the coming commodity shortages.

[Joe Chernicoff · Rating 4 out of 5]

Another book which should be read by our presidential candidates. As one who has had some undergrad and graduate work in agricultural economics, I readily appreciate her practical concern re: commodities, ad real-life look at economics, which, as Dr. Moyo succinctly informed a questioner during her presentation on BookTV, the class room is one look, but reality is what you need; too often, as I quickly realized while taking some graduate courses, there is often no relationship between what is real, and what someone wrote. In this case, Dr. Moyo makes clear that what China, as a statist capitalist society can do, is, on occasion, more effective than a capitalist society's ability, particularly when it can operate as a monosopymist. Of course, China does have its own economic problems, re: urbanization, resources, etc.

Also, one should read her previous book - How the West Was Lost, published in 2011.

[Stormy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Reading this book by International economist, Dambisa Moyo helped me to know more about the minerals in short supply, and China's awareness of their value & more about China's long term planning, as well as their efforts in Africa.
They are now doing what the U.S., U.K. and other European countries have done in the past. They have the finances and have set long term goals for the benefit of their country and seem to be helping other countries without setting the kinds of restrictions the U.S. has placed on countries we aid.
Saw in Time magazine an article about meeting of U.S. & Chinese rulers and China's offer to help with our infrastructures...
We have some growing to do.
Became alert to this author through Great Decisions Topic, China in Afric 2013.

[Venky · Rating 2 out of 5]

Writing with a great sense of alacrity and an even greater adroitness, Dambisa Moyo lays down with immense precision, China's untrammelled, but inevitable rampage in resource ravage and the attendant consequences for the rest of the world.

[Jeremiah Ross · Rating 5 out of 5]

Moyo gave an excellent, well researched, report on the current state of Chinese activities without fear-mongering or moralizing. Certainly one of the most enjoyable reads I have had of late.

[Colleen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Kind of changed my perspective on China a bit to a more positive perspective. That surprised me. But I think her answers to ending hunger were rather flippant and un-researched.

[Jonathan Lu · Rating 4 out of 5]

iOutstanding book that really does not tell much truly novel, but aggregates into a story of China that makes a lot of sense from the standpoint of behavioral economics; after living a while in Beijing, it is this book that really opened my eyes to the brilliance of the Chinese government's long term strategic plan that they are really in a singular position to execute as "china inc." in the global marketplace. Some of china's individual actions may seem sinister or illogical when taken out of context, but in the grander scheme of how to best benefit their people they really do have a well thought-out holistic strategy that other countries with a greater degree of privatization cannot touch. From my experiences living and understanding the culture on the ground, I do believe that George Friedman is wrong about china long-term: china will win. They may piss off some people to do so, while also enlightening others along the way (much as was the US or UK's pathway to dominance). I have a lot more respect now for the communist party at solidifying a coherent strategy that can be embraced from multiple vectors/industries, essentially beating those private companies who created capitalism at their own game. A few notes:

- est. 810MM cell phones in use, retired, or obsolete in the US: 13MM MT of precious metals worth $500MM
- 29% of earth's surface is dry land, only 11% of that land is arable
- Asia has 200 people/sq mi of arable land
- Europe 130, Africa 60, NA 30, LA 70, Oceania 10 - populations are not distributed where arable land is.
- water is 71% of earth's surface, but 97% of that is saline. Only 2.5% is fresh of which 70% are in polar ice caps = 0.007% of earth's water is usable.
- US is just above global average in average water/person/yr; Brasil had a gigantic pool far higher; India and china are near the bottom.
- oil rapidly running out as demand far outpaces supply and new investments are typically cost prohibitive meaning that existing assets are not well maintained. World's largest reserve pool is 100MMM barrel Khuzestan field in Iran, that has enough to supply world consumption by itself for only 3yrs. This is more than 2x larger than the next biggest reserves in Alaska and Saudi Arabia.
- possible to make 10% profit on oil close to the earth's surface at $20/bb. Deep water oil at $40/bb; ultra deep water oil at $60/bb; extra heavy/arctic oil at $80/bb; shale gas at $120/bb; global avg requires $50/bb
- 80% of world's oil are in unstable countries since most of the world's leading consumers are liberal democracies who care little about human rights or democracy in the countries that they buy oil from - as long as it keeps flowing. "The fact that the oil exporter has a 'guaranteed' cash inflow means the oil windfalls replace a government's dependence (broadly speaking) on taxpayers' receipts. Thus, the government cares less about what it's domestic constituents want. In essence, the vast oil receipts sever the connection between the individual and government, thereby undermining the veracity and sanctity of the (implicit) democratic contract between them."
- global energy supply: 33% oil, 27% coal, 21% natural gas, 10% bio/renewable, 6% nuclear, 2% hydro
- in china, 71% is coal and 19% oil
- of course china has a huge demand for other minerals especially copper and are securing land rights from other countries to mine for domestic consumption themselves (instead of paying for importation), but what I did not realize was their play in the global shipping market to secure infrastructure for logistics by which to ship their own materials and products instead of paying shipping companies to do it for them.
- the centralized nature of "china inc." allows them to take a holistic approach to securing resources - e.g. $25MMM loan to Russian oil companies in return do securing 20yr rights to purchase oil; $10MMM loan to Petrobras in addition to a deal to increase brasilian exports of chicken/beef to china in return for providing 200,000bb/day of oil to sinopec - a huge advantage that privatized countries could never hope to match. The scale of a company like P&G who buys more hygiene-grade PP than any other company in the world has nothing compared to china inc who pools the resources of many companies across many industries.
- Internal politics are not as divisive as in the US: During the economic crisis of 2008, china approved $586MMM of stimulus money (15% of GDP) in 15 days meted out across industries and escaped essentially unfazed vs us who fought for months and continue to fight years later internally over getting 5% of a stimulus approved. All the aid they have going to Africa is well received as opposed to American aid that is blatantly hypocratic and paternalistic - example of George W capitulating to far right republicans in cutting funding for a program to give condoms in Africa in favor of promoting abstinence - very negative perception among the people.
- the fact that china often overpays for land, resources, and investments vs the market rate is a testament to their broader long term objectives as a state - employment of their people and sustained resources to continue improving the lives of their people to avoid another tiananmen, not necessarily the largest profits (as a private industry seeks).
- food is just as critical as a resource as minerals and energy to china given their land and water situation - there exists a national frozen pork reserve
- interesting defense of commodity traders - although they can aggravate spikes and drops in prices through their activities, they are essentially doing nothing more than making it more efficient to trade large scale - they are not the ones responsible for the spikes and peaks as this is natural supply/demand but do serve to worsen them - "to criticize speculators for identifying supply-demand imbalances is tantamount to criticizing a thermometer for indicating that a liquid is hot."
- repeats her assertion from "dead aid" that Chinese investment in Africa is overwhelmingly positive as it is rooted purely in commerce instead of colonialism. The public perception of china in African countries is very positive and much higher than that of the US. China is apathetic to dictatorships and government abuses, making them no worse than western countries that behave the same way - but they provide a benefit in return for natural resources: money and building infrastructure (instead of the arrogant donations model). This far china has maintained a "peaceful rise" policy and not needed to militarily intervene into any country it has interests in; will that remain if the shit hits the fan in the future?
- food policy of western nations has gone further to drive Africa into china's arms. More food is thrown away in the US and EU than would be needed to feed all of the world's 1B hungry. There exist 1B obese which shows that food supply can meet demand but is an issue of location. With farm subsidies and other protections for domestic industries that serve to harm exports for many poor/staring countries, the end result is that they look to china as a market for their food sales - this providing china with the trade-off to strike a mutual benefit in securing their mineral and natural resource needs.
- good analysis of china's environmental current disaster: no different than the industrial revolution's impact in US or EU but on a larger scale. In those cases the messes were later cleaned up and right now china is making the same choice - focus on the important instead of the urgent. More important is to grow the economy and get people out of poverty first.
- About my only disagreement with Moyo is her unilateral support of GMO for increasing food production. this is absolutely fair if not for her dismissal of all concerns against it. There's no question that the trends of "organic/local/etc" are not sustainable for bringing 1B people out of hunger, but she does not even acknowledge potential trade off of global famine vs health/biological impacts.
- final chapter deals with potential future outcomes of how to better manage resource wars in the future - non that are realistic. She recommends a global committee that can manage resources (food, water, minerals, energy) and help to avert conflicts in the future though this is clearly not realistic given that the UN cannot even effectively avoid armed conflict and the WTO does not have enough teeth to resolve trade disputes. She also sees the US as able to play a unique role in bringing innovations in reducing energy use, food/water equilibria, and redirecting funding away from military to better balance resource constraints of the world: "Should America be a force for good - one that seeks to solve problems like resource scarcity afflicting the globe and enhance the well-being of people's lives and human existence around the world? Or does the United States wish to push for short-term solutions with nationalistic leanings that are increasingly untenable and will continue to lead a world marred in conflicts that wreak death and destruction?" - which unfortunately I think we also know how that will turn off. I suppose the bright side is her accurate assertion that china truly does look at military intervention as a means of last resort.

[Graham Mulligan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Winner Take All, China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the Rest of the World
Dambisa Moyo, Harper Collins, 2002

This book is about supply and demand. Commodities, specifically arable land, water, energy and minerals are in demand as the global population grows and gets wealthier. More people living in cities and with middle class expectations means increased demand for goods and services – everywhere. One of these commodities, the global supply of arable land, is not entirely available to buy or rent easily. Property rights or freehold title, although common in the Western, developed countries, is not practiced in most developing countries. There, the land is owned by the state and only leased to citizens for whatever use. This is particularly the case in South America and Africa and it is there that China seeks to secure agricultural resources by making government-to-government deals.

‘Peak oil’ is a term first coined in 1956, referring to US oil production projected to decline after 1970. World ‘peak oil’ projections have varied from 2030 to 2050 but the ‘peak’ date isn’t the point. It’s what happens when we look at the relationship between supply and demand. “As it gets more difficult to extract oil from harder-to-reach places, the risks of cost inflation (go) higher. And this … limits global supply at a time when demand is certain to rise”. Oil sellers are in the driver’s seat which means control of production, whether by national governments or wealthy individuals (who then control governments) tends to look less and less democratic. Four-fifths of world petroleum reserves are in politically unstable or contested areas (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela). It is in this context that China is accelerating its energy consumption. Right now oil consumption per person, per year, is as follows: America – 25 barrels; China – 2.2 barrels; India – 1 barrel.

How China acts to secure access to the commodities it needs is the theme of the rest of the book. Moyo describes a three-pronged approach – aid, trade and investment. Financial transfers are in the form of aid (mostly to Africa) or commercial loans. The trade approach is a familiar pattern, loan money to a targeted consumer who can only spend that money buying from the lender (the Marshall Plan is a good example of this). The US gives around US$20 billion in credit today, while China now gives US$250 billion to its clients. Investments in foreign companies by China really ramped up in 2005 (when Lenovo bought IBM’s PC unit for US$1.25 billion). Total investments prior to that were US$2 billion, while the 2005 total equaled US$12 billion, including the Lenovo deal. Over five years (up to 2010) the total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equaled US$400 billion (Australia – US$42.5 billion; United States US$28 billion; Brazil US$20 billion). In 2010 Chinese FDI in Canada equaled US$14.1 billion!

Vertical and horizontal alignment is part of China’s investment strategy. Shipping ports, like Greece’s port of Piraeus, are being upgraded as well as ports in Pakistan, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Moyo describes three investment strategies used by China to gain access to targeted resources: direct purchase, swaps (guaranteed purchase of all production of the asset for a specified period, like the FIPPA deal currently being done with Canada) and indirect access through buying stakes in a corporation and then controlling its investment decisions (like the Nexen deal). You can monitor these yourself at: http://www.heritage.org/research/repo...

China’s trade deals are notable for their win-win characteristics. Of course China needs the commodities but the host countries also have significant needs met by dealing with China. Infrastructure projects like road building (we saw plenty of evidence of Chinese engineers supervising road building in Kenya in May, 2012) provide much needed jobs.

A common argument put forth by Western officials is that China is over-paying for commodities, thus distorting the market. The Chinese see the role of government in trade deals as appropriate. Moyo explains the difference in approach (between free-market capitalism and state-led capitalism) as a difference in ‘utility function’. Utility function measures the satisfaction gained from consuming a good or service. All governments may have the same utility function, the betterment or improvement of their population, but they may differ in the scope and means of government to increase satisfaction. For China, bringing its large population closer to ‘satisfaction’ is paramount if it wants to avoid dissatisfaction and potential turmoil or uprisings. The price paid for commodities, seen in this context, is not too high.

The attention given to commodities by Western investors has changed in the last decade. Large financial investors (for example, pension funds and index funds) were more likely to invest in commodities than the market traders. The change in the last decade has produced an unanticipated result. Previously, market traders invested in cash-producing assets (equipment, companies, ideas or mines, and oil wells), something that would produce a stream of cash. Shifting to commodities investments means buying ‘consumption assets’ where the benefit is in the use of the purchase (like houses or other consumables). In the commodities market investors count on the price going higher in the future. We saw this in 2008 with the housing bubble, and in 2000 with the tech bubble.

Access to the key commodities like energy, is vital to security of any nation. It isn’t uncommon for sovereign states to control production of oil, for example. In fact, seventy percent of current oil production is state-owned. Not only that, oil is held in reserve by national governments in order to smooth out price fluctuations in times of supply crises. The US has capacity for 727 million barrels in reserve, enough for a hundred days, and has used this reserve as recently as June 2011, in face of the political uncertainty of the Arab Spring and Libya in particular. State intervention in the commodity market is not unique to oil. Both Europe and the US intervene in agriculture. National governments also manage access to resources by blocking company takeover bids that are deemed unsuitable. Between 1988 and 2008 the US government rejected nearly two thousand such bids. Moyo concludes, “state meddling in the commodity markets is endemic” whether through protectionism, subsidies, hoarding or posturing. The free-market interplay of supply and demand gives way to politics often.

Is China’s quest for resources a form of new colonialism? European colonialism was based on raw material extraction and used unequal power to control weaker states or indigenous populations. Sometimes motivations were altruistic such as missionary work or spreading modern science or European political systems (democracy). China doesn’t appear to be motivated by domination over sovereign states but over resources. It is actually disinterested in assuming responsibility for social or political affairs in the countries it deals with. Some Chinese labour is exported to work on projects funded by China but not to the extent some Western media have reported. Moyo cites the number of Chinese workers to local workers in various countries to support this. Where the numbers of Chinese workers is higher usually depends on levels of skill involved such as engineers. I saw a number of these engineers working on road building in Kenya, as I mentioned earlier. China has nearly completed the build-out of a nation-wide road network at home, much like the US did in the 1950’s, and now has a large pool of very experienced road builders available for foreign projects. One such project we witnessed is the primary road linking Mombassa, on the coast, to the interior of the continent, running across Kenya to Nairobi, into Uganda and Kampala and on to Rwanda.

Moyo concludes this book with a look at the ‘endgame’ of the commodity depletion using the shortage of food caused by waste, misallocation of food and bad food production policies as an example. One study showed forty percent waste in the US; thirty percent waste in the UK. This means more methane gas and bad greenhouse effects; loss of water used for producing the wasted food; wasted capital on transportation, packaging and retailing. Misallocation of food is ironically obvious when you match one billion starved bodies with one billion obese bodies. Food production is skewed by incentives and disincentives. The US and some Europeans, especially France, use subsidy and tariffs this way. Food protectionism mans lost potential food exports from countries in Africa and South America that could make a huge impact on employment and needed revenue.

[Chinyimba Mando · Rating 3 out of 5]

In Winner Take all Moyo, points out that what most critics are missing about China's resource rush is that perhaps the Chinese are aware taking active steps towards protecting their citizens from future resource shortages that are certain to plague the world should we continue consuming resources at this pace.

She hypothesises that the Chinese are rushing to acquire mineral rights, land and influence over various trade routes ports and governments in a bid to create a global network that will continuously supply the Chinese with substantial amounts of raw resources to feed their ever growing nation. Not only for the present, but also because they clearly forsee the future shortages that will plague the planet.

While it is true that the world is aware of the negative effects of our reckless lifestyle. Moyo points out that only the Chinese government has the power, will, money and perhaps most importantly the longevity to pursue a real solution to this worsening dilemma. Unlike other governments The Chinese government is not limited to short terms hence they're capable of pursuing long term policies.

She goes on to explain in detail the means and machinations the Chinese are using to put their proverbial foot in the doors of numerous resource rich nations and explains why the Chinese are so effective. Further she counters some of the criticism thrown at China with compelling arguments of her own;
For instance she points out that even though China has an immense carbon foot print and their activities are indeed harmful. The average Chinese family consumes far less than the average family from a developed western nation. Implying that the worst impacts on the environment originate from the western bloc.
Other arguments of hers focus on the hypocrisy of Politicians who often times carry out the same activities China does, for instance unfair trade, dealing with despots and dictators for profit etcetera...

Once again I really enjoyed reading her book, she has made some notable changes in her writing style, it's less academic and more prose like, she relies less on direct quotes but instead writes her opinions and conclusions based on numerous sources. I feel that this technique makes for a more engaging read that even someone with a fleeting interest economics would be compelled to finish it.

All in all Winner Takes all is yet another brilliantly researched book by Dambisa Moyo, filled with her insight, wit and arguments that makes one stop and think, no matter their politics or ethics.

[Francisco Menéres · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book was written 10 years ago, and therefore it represents the thoughts of Dambisa back then.
It is a very good book, to understand the overall strategy that China is making over the long run.
Unlike the western democracies, China is governed by a very stable political group, that is in power for a very long time.
For that reason, it shows that this type of political system has its benefits.
After 10 years(since the book was published), we can see that many of the predictions that Dambisa made, come to be.
The owl book is dedicated, to understanding that our planet, has limited resources, and those who control the majority of the resources will have an advantage over others.
China's approach to this is to establish various partnerships with almost every country that has resources(Commodities).
In some cases, like the African countries, they help them grow their own infrastructure, and educational systems, ..... and China benefits from the rights to mine the land, to farm, .....
Another fact that is explained in the book, is that China has a very different way of managing military power.

It really is incredible, that this was known more than 10 years ago, and the western civilization, could not see the strategic errors that now faces.

[Kamran Butt · Rating 4 out of 5]

"Winner Take All" is the first book I am reading of Dambisa Moyo, but I am pretty sure it won't be the last. the book is a great assessment on China's race for resources and the implications this has for the rest of the world. The book's spotlight is on China's central role in the commodities dynamics. The book is very well-researched and well-written book that is accessible for the masses. An even-handed book. The author seems very fair and logical. Her arguments and assessments are backed by sound economic perspectives. She's not afraid to be critical while remaining objective. Moyo makes the repeated point that resources are finite and populations growing, and this will inevitably lead to shortages, and China seems to be the only state trying to buffer themselves, outside of states with sovereign wealth funds. This may lead to resource domination by China down the road, or conflict.

Like any good academic, she poses an interesting argument without saying much about what to do about it except use less, recycle more, scale back miltary spending, tax fuel consumption, and endorse GMOs or technological food solutions, just a dozen pages at the end.

[Peter Panacci · Rating 5 out of 5]

Insightful, critical and in many ways, shocking for the realities it illuminates. I found Winner Take All to be an eye opening experience for someone living within 'western' culture when viewing China and its approach to global economics, foreign investment, and resource acquisitions. I was most surprised by how little I knew of the resource demands of modern countries, the skewed nature of how we see resources and what we consume, and the actual real dangers to global stability things like oil, water and precious metals pose. Dambisa Moyo takes a no nonsense approach to breaking down several aspects of consumption, supply and demand, and the fallacies built around the resource markets worldwide. People should understand how the world actually works, and this book presents a very important voice and viewpoint on that reality.

[Christian · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book surprised me, in all of the best ways. In typical economist fashion, the author delivers one of the most balanced and measured takes on what is easy to make into an overcharged political and nationalistic issue.

She lays out the situation as it is, China’s growth rate which drives its unending and voracious appetite for natural resources. Just a single example, the fact that China consumes 60% of the worlds copper is stunning.

She lays out the methods by which China secures those natural resources, what the ramifications are for the rest of the world, and warns the rest of the world to take note. She does not fault China for getting ahead of these issues, as they are vital to their national security and interests. She actually has a quite a bit of criticism for western nations, who use aid, and a very paternalistic nature to deal with other countries around the globe, instead of a more mutually beneficial trade Mindset that China generally takes.

Now, to be clear, China certainly throws their weight around with their methods of soft power, and even hard power, for which they should be warned at best and condemned at worst, and that is not shied away from here.

Overall a fascinating look into global natural resource flows, and the ways that those largely hidden but supremely impactful flows shape our presents and our futures

[Godluck Akyoo · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very insightful book, It gives you a different perspective on global resources and different approaches by different countries on acquiring soft and hard commodities. You also get to understand the nature of the conflicts in the countries blessed with an abundance of natural resources such as oil and minerals (coltan, nickel, gold, copper, etc). It also addresses the issues of environmental challenges brought about by the ongoing growth of population and increase of the middle-class, how it puts more pressure on the already strained resources. I totally recommend this book.

[Carlos Martinez · Rating 3 out of 5]

Useful as an overview of current and coming resource crises, and generally (and surprisingly) positive in its appraisal of China's long-term economic strategy. The levels of finance jargon felt unnecessary at times, and the author's opinions veer a bit too close to small-government right-wing libertarianism in places. A useful read if you're specifically researching this area, but not something I'd recommend far and wide.

[Cyrus Charles · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's not the last word on asset exhaustion or China's asset system, yet it assembles the two in manners that no one else has done right now. The book may not get everything right; however, it's focal point should be heard. China's activities on resources will have enormous ramifications for the world's capacity to meet our future resource needs; thus, it is not something to be passively dismissed.

[Jiwoonglee · Rating 4 out of 5]

It was fun to see the predictions from 2010s, how they were framed and showcased to be aligned with their narratives. The world hasn’t changed at all after years and we are getting into actual conflicts due to the lack of resources everywhere. China definitely will be key to the problems and solutions to come and this book can be a basis for the future with peace, accessible resources, and reasonable price of goods.

[Jap Hengky · Rating 4 out of 5]

This artful study examines the big picture beyond China’s buying spree, digging into its political pressures at home and cataloging resource scarcities abroad. While not an investment guide, this analysis provides valuable insight into the forces driving commodity markets.