The Hidden Game of Football: A Revolutionary Approach to the Game and Its Statistics

by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, John Thorn

The 1988 cult classic behind football’s data analytics revolution, now back in print with a new foreword and preface.



Data analytics have revolutionized football. With play sheets informed by advanced statistical analysis, today’s coaches pass more, kick less, and go for more two-point or fourth-down conversions than ever before. In 1988, sportswriters Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn proposed just this style of play in The Hidden Game of Football, but at the time baffled readers scoffed at such a heartless approach to the game. Football was the ultimate team sport and unlike baseball could not be reduced to pure probabilities. Nevertheless, the book developed a cult following among analysts who, inspired by its unorthodox methods, went on to develop the core metrics of football analytics used win probability, expected points, QBR, and more. With a new preface by Thorn and Palmer and a new foreword by Football Outsiders’s Aaron Schatz, The Hidden Game of Football remains an essential resource for armchair coaches, fantasy managers, and fans of all stripes.

Genres: Sports, Football, Nonfiction

408 pages, Kindle Edition

First published September 1, 1988

About the author

Bob Carroll (1936–2009) was founder and executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association and the author of more than twenty books, including When the Grass Was Real: Unitas, Brown, Lombardi, Sayers, Butkus, Namath, and All the Rest: The Best Ten Years of Pro Football.

Reviews

[James Swenson · Rating 4 out of 5]

An early (1988) classic on the mathematical/statistical analysis of football. Often irritatingly breezy -- "We thought about saving whales, but we knew we'd end up spending them as soon as we got them, so we decided instead to figure out what it is that makes football teams win" (p. 231) -- and now dated, as the authors would readily admit.

[Josh · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good foundational read on football analytics and mythbusting conventional wisdom, not unlike The Book for baseball. Also pretty funny, though prepare to be absolutely inundated with Dad jokes.

It's a bit dated now (published mid-'90s when a 3,000-yard passing season was still a big deal) but there's still a lot of good stuff here, notably on the fundamentals of EPA and what the football stats nerds are talking about when they keep harping on efficiency and win probabilities instead of like who's giving 110% or who has the momentum.

(Yeah I took a year to read it. But it was never my primary read--I was just picking it up here and there. It's not long. And the page count is pretty bloated by a bunch of stats appendices that are now mostly obsolete.)

[Bill Shannon · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is a landmark, a monolith. Cold Hard Football Facts and Football Outsiders both owe a huge debt to this book. It is the first book of its kind to reevaluate stats and rethink which ones are important. It's not a narrative, and very numbers-heavy, but of you're paying attention, you're seeing the future of football.

[Robert Pulvermacher · Rating 4 out of 5]

I first got this from a library when I was (I think) a pre-teen. At least a little bit it charted the course of my future, with a passion for football and statistics, both of which I spend a lot of my current day thinking about. This book directly led to football outsiders, and pff, and all the other ways we have of teasing out cause and effect of the most intricate, cross-dependent sport that exists. Slightly less revolutionary was the actual writing in this book, which comes off as very dad joke-ey and a little too nerdy. Still, changed me, changed the world a little bit.

[Peter · Rating 4 out of 5]

Even though the edition I have (from the 80s) is pretty dated, and the jokes are cornier than my grandma's feet, and individual statistical analysis of a team sport is iffy at best, and some of the numbers are arbitrary and/or downright silly...wait a second...this book SUX!!!!!!!!!

[Ryan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Promoted like it was the Moneyball of football (before moneyball). A bit of hype. Wasn't that great.