As an active trader of options, futures, stocks, and crypto, I have been meaning to foray into forex trading for a while now. Besides, most of us have been unintentionally following the growth or decline of at least two currencies, some even more, and noticed how they could be a viable investment vehicle. For example, INR was at 40 units per dollar ten years ago, and now stands around 75. That's a bit shy of 100% returns in ten years, almost as much as real estate. And if you track the currencies of weaker economies, you see the returns of even better. An even better motivation personally is the fact that some of the biggest shorted trades in history have been those of currencies. Obviously, the one that immediately comes to mind is the iconic shorting of British Pound by the legendary investor Soros netting almost three billion pound. Cornwall Capital of The Big Short fame also profited immensely with shorting Australian Dollar before it killed it with the subprime mortgage CDOs. Those are just two of a ton of forex successes. The point being that despite the fact that volatility in the forex market is barely observable, some of the most lucrative trades of Wall Street hedge funds have been that of forex. Thirdly, the forex market is barely moved by global economic downturns. Even during the Great Recession of 2008, forex barely moved. This makes it an amazing hedging tool for your investments.
With all that prelude, I must say I was dearly disappointed to understand that my idea of forex was completely wrong after reading this book. But before we get into the content, let me give a shout out to the authors for writing a very balanced book on this trade. It tells you what is and what is not about the market, but cautiously stops short of advising you what you must and must not do. This was my first "X for Dummies" book and I must say their format is pretty impressive. With "warning signs", "tips", "remembers", "technical points" etc sort of annotations, Dummies series of books could easily become an online "Social Reader" platform. Authors of the book, Kathleen Brooks and Brian Dolan seem highly accomplished in this business and have been involved with both Forex.com and Gain Capital for many years.
First and foremost, a bulk of forex trading is short term, unlike what I had assumed all through. In fact, it's not even short-term, it's super short-term. Traders do a plethora of short trades in a small span of time, and because of the relatively small changes in the Forex market, these trades are generally mammoth, in terms of several millions to billions of dollars. With trades that big, even minor fluctuations have a drastic impact on your portfolio. Unlike the stock market where when you buy a stock, you are just buying an asset, in forex, you buy a "pair". Example, USD/EURO. So, when you say a stock goes up, it's absolute. But when you say a currency goes up, the question is it's going up against what? This basic idea sets the forex market completely apart from the stock or futures market because in this, selling a pair short is as prevalent as selling it long. Thus, interest on your margin account, or interest gain on your holding becomes a lot more central.
The book does a great job of diving into the evolution of the FX market all the way from the time of Reutors Dialing to the modern online platforms like Onada, Forex.com, Saxo etc. It explains well the correlation of other commodities like gold, oil etc on the forex market, as well describes the major and minor (exotic/emerging market) currency pairs. But my favorite parts of the book include
1. the reasoning behind Australian Dollar so closely dependent on Chinese Yuan,
2. the illiquid Chinese Yuan and the government's hold on it,
3. the impact of the interest rate on the currency market (interest rate is the single biggest influencing factor, akin to location in real estate market)
4. the impact of major economic reports like NPR (non-farm payrolls), labor report (unemployment) etc
A lot of strategies mentioned in the book are generally applicable to stocks and options as well, but it still does a good job of explaining technical analysis procedures like Fibonacci Tracing, Japanese Candlestick graphs etc. My only missing element of the book (and of probably all Dummies book) is that it's missing the "motivation" section as to why the reader should read the book. Some success stories or case-studies briefly mentioned in the introduction of the book would immensely inspire the reader. There are still a few questions in my mind that need answering. Some of the nitty-gritties of trading Ruble, about the illiquidity of Yuan, about using emerging market currencies for long term hedging etc. But I believe they were mostly out of scope of this book. Overall, a decent book, tells the story. Not preachy yet informative. I already stepped in the mud after reading this book and lost a bit investing in South African Rand! :) Luckily, it was paper-trading.