In the 75 years since the end of World War II, global leaders integrated the world's economy, transport and communications, breaking down borders in the hope that it would make war impossible. In doing so, they unwittingly created a formidable arsenal of weapons for new kinds of conflict and the motivation to keep fighting. The rise in nationalism is not a bump in the road, but part of the paving.
In a few short years, we have progressed from co-operation, to convergence, to competition. The past decade has seen a rising antagonism between the US and China; an inability to co-operate on global issues such as climate change or pandemic response; and a breakdown in the distinction between war and peace, as overseas troops are replaced by sanctions, cyberwar, and the threat of large migrant flows.
As a leading authority on international relations, Mark Leonard's work has taken him into many of the rooms where our futures are being decided at every level of society, from the Facebook HQ and facial recognition labs in China to meetings with world leaders to advise on trends in geopolitics. In seeking to understand the ways that globalisation has broken its fundamental promise to make our world safer and more prosperous, Leonard explores how we might wrestle a more hopeful future from an age of unpeace.
Speaking at the 2017 installment of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Ian Goldin, a Professor of Globalization at Oxford University, stole a sombre march over his more ebullient participants, most of whom represented the crème de la crème of the neo capitalist billionaire creed. Goldin, if not impudently hurling sand in the finely lubricated gears of capitalism, issued an impassioned plea. “We need to make the choices to ensure that globalization is sustainable, that connectivity is sustainable, that we deal with intractable problems that are worrying people.” Within five years of Goldstein’s prescient warning, Russia helmed by a megalomaniacal Vladimir Putin, embarked on a full throated invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that still rages on at the time of this review.
In a 21st century world, where the tentacles of globalization have reached every perceivable corner of our planet, thereby ensuring not just seamless connectivity, but an inextricably linked chain of inter dependence, words such as ‘invasion’, ‘incursion’, etc sound medieval. It would be almost heretical to even envisage two intimately connected nations taking up even metaphorical cudgels against each other, let alone attempt a foolhardy physical assault. Yet, as Mark Leonard argues in his extremely compelling book, “The Age of Unpeace”, it is this very connectivity that threatens to tear countries apart. The more a nation’s prospects remain glued to the workings and actions of another, the more the potential prospects for a dangerous ‘disconnect’.
Leonard, in his capacity as the director and co-founder of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, is at the vanguard of change and connectivity that has permeated the neo capitalistic modern world. He uses his vantage point to contend that the heave and heft of connectivity over the past few decades that has influenced policies with respect to realms as diverse as mass migration, technology, cross border trade and travel, births conflict as opposed to resolving it.
Leonard’s work is interspersed with interesting theories, which even though sounding radical at the outset, are pregnant with an attribute of profundity. For example, in illustrating the frantic ‘decoupling’ that is being attempted by the United States due to frayed and fractious relations with China, Leonard introduces his readers to the fantastic theory of ‘mimetic’ desire postulated by French historian, polymath, philosopher and literary critic René Girard. For Girard, argues that humans imitate the desires of fellow human beings to such a degree that the object of the original desires get diluted and is sacrificed at the altar of rivalries that fester around it. Thus as rivals compete for any desired object, they become inextricably linked, and obsessed with each other. Then they begin mirroring one another. Ultimately the rivalry ensures in a complete obliteration of individual identities as the warring factions become doppelgangers.
The United States, encouraged by a contrivance of arrogance and naiveté, moved heaven and earth in paving the way for Deng Xiaoping’s sedate China to embrace the World Trade Organisation. China not only refused to follow the Western playbook containing the precepts of democracy and the philosophy of human rights, but they also upended received wisdom by engaging in an exercise of unabashed ‘mimesis’. When Google’s Deep Mind created a spectacular AI programme “Alpha Go” that trounced World Champion Lee Seedol in the ancient board game of “Go”, China viewed this as their “Sputnik moment”. In an eye popping display of state funded public private partnership initiative, China under Xi created an entire AI ecosystem from scratch under the able guidance of Kai-Fu Lee, the Asian investor and one of the pioneers of AI in China. Kai-Fu Lee coincidentally received his Ph.D. in continuous speech recognition from Carnegie Mellon University.
The hunter had become the hunted. The jumpstart which the US had in the field of AI was rapidly eroded and the US now is mimicking China as it tries to untangle itself from the spidery web of intricate connections. Similarly, Erdogan’s rapacious Turkey threatens to send hordes of refugees/ migrants into the EU unless the EU divests itself of billions of euros to Turkey in aid. The EU has been compelled to yield to Turkey’s constant arm twisting as there does not seem to be any other viable alternative.
The US also engages in its own ‘model’ of threat liberally. Backed by the position of the dollar as the global currency of choice, the US attempts to starve its adversaries such as Iran by resorting to forced changes in the global financial system such as SWIFT. Iran, in turn, miffed at what it perceives to be a mountain of injustice done to it, is responding with proxy wars by arming rebellious terrorist factions such as the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Palestine. Reciprocal cyber and drone attacks have become the flavour of the contemporary geopolitical sphere. Lucas Kello, of Oxford University Leonard terms these developments as occurring in an “age of Unpeace”.
The internet is also being slowly, albeit surely ‘Balkanized’. But on the internet, decoupling is already well under way. China has effectively blocked Western platforms and has built an alternative/ parallel online space. Thus, Baidu is a replica of Google; Alibaba replaces eBay and Amazon; WeChat substitutes WhatsApp; Weibo steps in for Twitter; and Didi Chuxing is the synonym for Uber.
Best-selling author and a perpetual upholder of Panglossian vision, Thomas Friedman is attributed with a theory termed “The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention”. This theory argues that no two countries that are part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain. The title is derived from the long and complex supply chain stretching over countries and continents that ultimately is responsible for the manufacture of a Dell laptop. Unfortunately in an age of “Unpeace”, such theories are apt to crumble.
“The Age of Unpeace” is an essential and timely reminder of the perils of a tussle for one upmanship and superiority that has its battlefield not inside bloody and macabre trenches but in the more sophisticated, convoluted and ubiquitous medium of connectivity.
The book touches on an interesting and relevant topic: the downsides of global connectivity. It raises some valid and urgent questions, but it isn't able to address these in a coherent manner. I couldn't help but find the book to feel rushed and unfinished, which I'm sure, has to do with the editing too.
It's a pity, because the topics mr. Leonard addresses are extremely relevant and deserve our time and attention.
پایان جنگ سرد و فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروی، مرزهای بین کشورها را کمرنگ کرد. انتظار میرفت وقتی زنجیرههای ارزش، نظام بانکی، شبکههای حملونقل و مخابرات، موجهای مهاجرت نیروی کار، و شبکه اینترنت، کشورها را بهیکدیگر متصل کنند، خصومتها کمتر، روابط مستحکمتر، و صلحها پایدارتر شوند. اما، گرهها فاصلهها را بیشتر کرد و نزاع از حاشیه به متن سیاست و اقتصاد جهانی آمد.
مارک لئونارد ،همبنیانگذار و مدیر مرکز مطالعاتی «شورای اروپایی روابط خارجی»، معتقد است حلقههای تجاری و مالی، پیوندهای انسانی و سازمانی، و ارتباطات سایبری که در روزهای خوب گسترش مییابند، در روزهای بد اهرم فشار کشورها علیه یکدیگر میشوند. در جهانی که موجهای فناوری، تغییرات اقلیمی، آثار زیستمحیطی، و اتصال بازارهای جهانی، سرنوشت جوامع را بهیکدیگر پیوند زده، پیوندها بهجای تضمین صلح و امنیت، رخنههایی برای نزاع و خصومت باز میکنند.
روابط بین کشورها و جوامع، تا قبل از دوران جدید در دوگانه «جنگ و صلح» تعریف میشد؛ ولی به تعبیر نویسنده کتاب «عصر ناصلحی»، حتی اگر لئو تولستوی هم زنده بود نمیتوانست وضعیت نهجنگ و نهصلح امروز را توصیف کند. تحریمها، مهاجرتهای اجباری، جنگهای سایبری، تعریف کلاسیک جنگ و صلح را دگرگون کردهاند.
انتخاب ترامپ، برگزیت، بازگشت ناسیونالیسم و حمایتگرایی، و تضعیف پایگاه اجتماعی ارزشهای جهانی، نشانههایی از ناپایداری صلح و امنیت در جهان امروزند. قبلا نزاعهای کلاسیک صرفا ارتشها را درگیر میکرد؛ اما قربانیان پیوندهای گسستنی، شهروندان عادی هستند.
A completely unremarkable take on international affairs, besides one chapter which is absolutely excellent.
Mark Leonard just seems to have bad luck. He cites his 2005 book on Europe as an example of his own eagerness getting ahead of him. Similarly, this book, The Age of Unpeace is all about how conventional warfare of physical combat has all but disappeared from the European theatre. Again, his foresight has seemed to have failed him slightly here. Because of the present Russian-Ukraine conflict, a lot of Leonard’s points in the first section ring a little hollow and his central premise comes across as flawed.
For much of the book, Leonard’s take on connectivity being a source of conflict feels underbaked. He has an interesting tangent on Chinese supervision of Grindr, as well as a couple of apt quotes about the defragmentation of politics in the 2010s. But on the whole these points are all a little conventional and have very little teeth to them.
That is, until chapter five. This chapter opens part 3 of Leonard’s book and is a force of powerful non fiction writing. I am convinced that this essay was the main submission for the book, which has been filled out with enough room to make a more marketable product. Leonard argues that globalisation and inter connectivity have been weaponised into significant forces of ‘unpeace’ artillery. Principally, through sanctions, the use of migration and international law.
Through sanctions, argues Leonard, the USA created a mechanism to negatively impact economically untouchable states. It’s a great piece of analysis on the effect sanctions have. UN Sanctions can be vetoed, but the dollar can’t be. And through the machinations of post-911 American politicking, sanctions have become an incredible important tool to wield against divergent states. They reduce economic output by 2% of GDP per year, Iran’s own shrinking by 10% after being sanctioned. In 2017/18 it was estimated 40,000 Venezuelan’s died as a result of US Sanctions. Medical scarcity, infrastructure decline, harvest failures, malnourishment and (in severe cases) cannibalism, have all been products of US sanctions on Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Cuba and North Korea.
And other countries have noticed. Viktor Orban’s Hungary is taking greater steps to better integrate with China to avoid the economic dependence that might cripple other countries. Xi Jingping’s China is actively pursuing the Belt and Road initiative in order to manage the infrastructure to connect the countries various cities, 161 of which boast populations of over 1 million. Europe has 35 such cities. The Laos-China dealings represent ‘Debt Diplomacy’ and account for 80% of Laos’ GDP, where China can rely on their political support in exchange for heavy investments. Leonard’s arguments never go into the ideological reasons enough to tie this threads of neatly, but the implication seems quite clear. Alternative economic and political systems which reject Western Liberal Democracies are becoming more powerful. They are using tools which were previously only wielded by the US Dollar and I’m such ways to significantly reshape the geopolitical stage.
On migration and international law, Leonard’s arguments are equally as well evidenced and powerful. A more bizarre tangent he has is on the success of migration reception from Israel and the so-called Islamic State. But each deserve a better explanation than is appropriate for a Goodreads review. Suffice to say, it’s an outstanding chapter and Leonard’s ability as an essayist is on full show here. It’s almost worth getting the book just for this chapter alone.
After this chapter the book never again really reaches such highs, but the third section is easily the best and clearly what Leonard is focused on. It’s a shame the rest of the book is so woolly. As a final note, Leonard narrates the audiobook himself and does a good job with getting the cadence at a good level for listeners to understand what’s going on.
On the whole, it’s a dull book, with one exceptional chapter that really shakes things up. It says a lot about the strength of the chapter that it can weigh equally against seven other chapters of middling quality. For anyone who is nerdy about international politics, it is, overall, a worthwhile read.
Świetna książka, wiele rzeczy powtórzonych ze studiów, ale też czegoś się dowiedziałam. Super pokazana ta konektywność, wszystkie związki i procesy z nią związane. A no i porównanie polityki międzynarodowej do dysfunkcyjnego małżeństwa było hitem😅
Hab lange überlegt, ob ich das hier eintragen darf, weil ich es quasi aus beruflichen Gründen (für meine MA) gelesen hab, aber i swear ich hab es voll durchgearbeitet und fand es echt gut. Der Autor legt ziemlich überzeugend dar, warum wir in so konflikthaften Zeiten leben. Die Zunahme an Verbindungen durch die Globalisierungswelle ab den 90ern und durch das Internet hat nicht (wie damals erhofft, insbesondere durch das Internet) dazu geführt, dass die Konflikte weniger werden, weil jetzt alle zu eng verbunden sind. Nicht nur verursachen die Verbindungen auch Unsicherheiten (China hat Schiss, dass das Internet zum Systemumsturz führt wie im Arabischen Frühling und ist deshalb besonders restriktiv). Es werden außerdem vermehrt die Asymmetrien ausgenutzt, weil einer durch Handel mehr profitiert oder weniger abhängig ist als der andere. Als gutes Beispiel gilt hier Russland und die Energielieferungen an den Westen.
The book highlights the world in the 21st century, which is expected to be characterized by “connectivity conflicts”, and the struggle to arm connectivity technologies by the the world superpowers. Mark Leonard sums up that the humankind has to change its way of thinking, if it wants to survive.
Quotation: “The tragedy of our generation is that the forces that have united humankind are also dividing us and threatening to destroy us.”
Highly recommend for those wanting to grasp the contemporary challenges of global politics.
Two critiques: While clearly attempting to go beyond it, the book brushes Africa and South America off as uncapable of forming a strong 'pole' of power themselves. I would critique this because of Africa's connectivity in global supply chains and growing population, and South America having the Amazon. For these reasons, they might play larger roles in the future than expected. See also their impact in international organisations over de last 40 years.
Second, it remains a statist account, despite considering the multiple strata of societies. Thinking deeper about the impact of connectivity to affect all layers of society is an amazing step in reshaping how international politics is done. However, solutions are sought in the statist account (and somewhat in the international cooperation account). I am left wondering about the possibility of grass roots and non-state organisation.
Niektóre spotkania mogły być mailem, niektóre książki mogły być artykułem na 7 stron.
Koncept Leonarda był nęcący, ale czytelnik dostaje bardziej zbiór pt. "Chciałbym dziś opowiedzieć o...". Był potencjał, pozostał niezbyt użytecznie spędzony czas nad lekturą.
Interesting read. Although not mind blowing in general, the book still presents a good summary for globalization and connectivity having both negative and positive impacts. I would have preferred more examples from the EU being included as I felt there was mostly focus on the US and China. I would like to highlight that the conclusion was interesting and inspiring.
To me reading this book felt like being in Mark Leonard’s head and looking out into the world. It is written in a very engaging style, moving quickly from one topic to the next, blending historical episodes with future gazing, jumping back and forth between personal experience and a global perspective. It is not for nothing that the author calls the book an ‘intervention’ – it’s a page-turner that is bound to excite and stimulate even though (or because) ideas are often not thought through in great detail. It seems rather like they are left voluntarily for others to pick up and continue chewing on them. The central thesis, which is supposedly holding together the narrative (if there really is one), is that globalization, the fact that the world becomes more interlinked over time, is not only a source of ‘understanding and togetherness’ but also a cause of ‘evermore division and conflict’. The solution, according to Mark Leonard, is therapy rather than grandiose changes in the ‘architecture’ of global governance. While this idea seems plausible prima facie, and one is inclined to agree with the author at least on this point, the implications for global politics remain rather underexplored in this short ‘intervention’. Read it and see what it does to you!
Since the end of the Cold War, the world leaders worked to create a much-connected world, one that builds economies, easier cross boarder travels, communication and trade. However, as author describes, what was meant to bring the world closer, was also the tool and weapons used to push it part, as the world has entered a type of war, a different sense of unpeace.
The act for humanity is for the world in whole, not a "me and my people" mindset. While creating what's best, we have to take into consideration others' culture, beliefs and programming. Work together and synergize, yet not to become overly dependent to a single person. The world needs to work together, for all to live in it, to help sustain it. Yet, I can't help to notice of the discord that is already in place.
We tend to ignore cracks until something tumbles down, by then it may be too late. Not a gloom and doom message, just a wake up call for me!
Interesting book about how connectivity is not only causing countries to work more closely together while at the same time, this increases the risk of unpeace and digital warfare.
A Book on international connectivity weaponized but without having too much that it not obvious to say
This book discusses why and how international connectivity has been weaponized, primarily between the US, EU, China and Russia. With respect to why, the answer is that conventional warfare between the major powers has become too dangerous and this form of warfare can, despite being less lethal (in general) is still very powerful (and dangerous). With respect to how, the book discusses many forms of weaponization including trade, international finance, cyber, international court proceedings, etc.
On the positive side, there have not been many books looking at this topic from the broad perspective it has been albeit individual aspects (i.e.. Cyber, international finance as a weapon) have been. As a survey it does an acceptable job, in particular to the newbie. On the negative side, not much of contained in the book is exactly a revelation to anyone who reads the news widely and is news savvy.
In short, four stars for the not very knowledgeable on current affairs and the news front but only two stars for those knowledgeable.
Repetitive and self-indulgent. If I wanted to know about Mark Leonard's career I would've read his wikipedia page. This book feels incredibly rushed and it's central premise posturing about how social media and globalisation will drastically change any future ground wars has been made obsolete by the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
This book presents ideas then doesn't examine them any further. You would think somebody who has had such a long career in international relations would have something interesting or profound to say about the rise of globalisation but this book makes me think he'd rather talk about how he met the people he's talking about and they had a really good conversation one time (the contents of which are not described in any detail). It doesn't help that the audiobook I listened to was narrated by Mark himself, meaning the already confused and jumbled writing was made even more so by being read by the guy who wrote it.
1. Apps like Grindr allows people in many different places to find and connect to each other. However, it also allows extremist groups to form and organise.
2. Social apps allow people to know what other people are doing. Middle class people in poor countries become unhappy because they see what the rich in the rich world does. Envy ensues.
3. Brexit shows too much connectivity is not welcomed. Brits may want the access to the EU marker but not the immigrants.
4. Interdependence between countries may bring peace, but also war. (A poignant example is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).
5. Connectivity can be made into a weapon. So Turkey threatened the EU with a flood of refugees. US can use the SWIFT system to punish Iran and Russia. Hackers hack across countries. Scammers reach anyone. Russian bots influence Western elections.
6. Nodes are becoming more important. Everyone wants to control the node and the platform. America wants to spy on everyone and in turn is afraid of Chinese 5G potential for surveillance.
Solution? 1. Know the problem 2. Establish boundaries (protect the losers) 3. Be realistic of what one can control (you can change China) 4. Self-care: take care of domestic prosperity 5. Seeking real consent (memoranda, Nordic style discussions)
Connection, comparison, competition. Great powers are in a time of upheaval, and how best to manage varying crises through a shifting world order remains the order of the day. This binary vision, that what connects us also sows the seeds of our own conflicts, is essential reading in these times. This book was even recently name dropped in a reputable foreign policy podcast I follow, which quickly bumped it up the list for reading. A short section of solution-oriented approaches follows the main arguments of the book, and they make sense. Timely and engaging.
4 stars. An engaging addition to the discussion surrounding US-EU-China power plays of the 21st Century. Adequately nuanced and informative.
"In the place of tanks and planes they now use regulations and standards, transit control, supply chains, propaganda, sanctions, encryption, monetary policy and financial systems."
Globalisation can be a hard topic to cover. It's simultaneously commonplace, yet elusive and difficult to understand. I found that this book was quite repetitive and didn't really hit the right notes to feel...complete. It's pretty unremarkable. While it has some interesting research, concepts, and questions, it still builds the same puzzle that everyone understands about globalisation: it benefits and hurts different players depending on when and how it's used. To be honest, it felt like it covered everything I already learned in my highschool classes.
A book about the downside of globalisation. Many interesting insights that I’m sure the author could write many more books about. It was a great read with a lot of information on a few pages. Much to process but I appreciated what I’ve learned from the book!
The purpose of the book were to acknowledge that there’s a problem with connectivity, so of course it’ll feel a bit overwhelming and at times too negative. But that’s not a critique but more an important note to make. 3/5 because I learned much and at the same time wanted to go deeper into some of the topics. My favourite chapters came towards the end.
A book that should’ve been a paper. A Eurocrat who hates the US and UK, but just wants China to love him read a self-help book on co-dependency and decided he was qualified to diagnose the world. That’s not a euphemism. The dude actually copies his entire final argument from a self-help book on co-dependency.
Lots of new ideas for me. The author writes in a clear prose that helps him make his arguments. Looking at the US, Europe, and China as 3 distinct empires helped me see how they are connected and how they seek power.
Scary but important. I love what he's named the current global state of affairs: unpeace. His descriptions of the Chinese vs. the United States cultures is brilliant.
Książka chyba została napisana w ogromnym pośpiechu. Wydała mi się chaotyczna, nieprzemyślana. Ma super mocne momenty ale raczej na artykuł niż około 230 stronnicowa książkę.
Some really interesting ideas and clearly a well informed writer but I felt like it jumped around way too much and became quite hard to focus and follow their argument a lot of the time.
Short and sweet. Some good and interesting theses. The main one is: the very same things that bring people together, pull them apart and create tension.
Erittäin kiinnostava ja ajankohtainen teos geopolitiikasta. Jos maailman monimutkaiset ongelmat ja USA-CH-EU-dynamiikka kiinnostavat, suosittelen. 4,5/5