Too much smoke, Too Little Fire
Zubrin opens with "[We have been] doubling our carbon use every thirty years for more
than a century. In 1900, humanity burned 0.6 billion tons of carbon per year. This doubled
to 1.2 billion in 1930, doubling again to 2.5 billion tons in 1960, then yet again to 5 billion
tons in 1990, to 10 billion tons now .1 "Based on history, there is every reason to
expect human energy production and use to double again by 2050, and yet again by 2080.
"According to solid measurements, average temperatures have increased by about 1
degree centigrade since 1870. That, admittedly, is not a big deal. It is the equivalent to the warming that a New Yorker would experience if he or she moved to central New Jersey. So, there is no climate catastrophe now. But the climatic effects of continued CO2 emissions at a level an order of magnitude higher than today would be an entirely different matter."
A Brief History of Power
Mankind has depended on a number of different sources of power, light and transportation
energy. Here is a brief list, including the timeframes in which they were adopted.
• Fire – 2 million years ago. Warmth and cooked food.
• Wood fuel – from the beginning
• Charcoal fuel – Neolithic times
• Olive oil
• Wind power for sailing – bronze age
• Waterwheels – classical times
• Windmills for mechanical energy – 12th-century in France
• Coal– 12th-century in England
• Whale blubber for light, heat – 17th century
• Petroleum – 19th century
• Nuclear – 20th century
At this juncture – about 90% of our energy comes from fossil fuels. As the graph shows,
increased carbon use has been highly correlated with the increase in the world gross national
product.
The Case for Nukes Table Of Contents
1. Too much smoke, Too Little Fire
2. A Brief History of Power
3. Do We Really Need More Energy
4. What about Nuclear Energy
5. How to Make Nuclear Energy
6. Atoms for Subs, Atoms for Peace
7. How to Build a Nuclear Reactor
8. His Nuclear Power Safe
9. How to Cut Costs
10.Reading More Fuel Than You Burn
11.Entrepreneurial Nukes
12.The Power the Lights the Stars
13.Opening the Space Frontier
14.Upgrading the Earth
15.The Way Forward
16.There Program and Ours
There are concerns about the continued use of carbon-based fuels:
• Global warming,
• Air pollution,
• Ocean acidification
• The earth's limited endowment
But, all the alternatives going forward have severe limitations – except nuclear
• Solar
• Wind
• Hydro
• Biomass
• Nuclear
Zubrin makes the observation that technology advances are cumulative. The rate of advance
depends on how many people are working on improvements and how widely they are shared.
This is Metcalfe's law – the power of a network is equal to the square of its size. Or Isaac
Newton: "if I have seen further, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants." Zubin
credits seafaring, which vastly widened our horizons. He doesn't mention the printing press,
which facilitated sharing knowledge over distance and time.
Do We Really Need More Energy
Zubin recounts the way major innovations turn natural resources that had previously been
considered useless into something of value. The heavy plow, with coulter and mortarboard,
made heavy soils in northern Europe valuable. Horse collars and horseshoes made those
animals more valuable. Once discovered, petroleum oil quickly replaced whale oil. A sticky
nuisance became a thing of value.
Entrepreneurial Nukes
Governments have ceased innovating in the realm of nuclear reactors, but private industry
has not. There are four major types:
• Water Cooled Reactors (light water and heavy water)
• High temperature gas cooled
• Liquid metal cooled
• Molten salt cooled
NuScale corporation makes an SMR – small modular light-water reactor. It is the most
conservative design. A look at their investment material indicates that (1) they have a single
contract to install their system, in Romania and (2) the value of the stock, traded as
NYSE:SMR, has gone nowhere.
This would appear to be the bellwether. When the Romanian venture works, and the full
dimension of Germany's disastrous shutdown of nuclear and reliance on wind, solar and
Russian natural gas becomes clear, the company could be at the head of a parade back to
nuclear.
Ukraine would be a logical customer. Nuclear still provides about half its electricity. The
home of Chernobyl fears nuclear less than most. Ukraine is next door to power-hungry
customers that have saddled themselves with counterproductive politics that get in the way of
building their own plants. It has halted work on two partially completed plants due to the war.
The Power the Lights the Stars
Nuclear fusion was put to use in the H-bomb in the 1950s. It works because the critical mass
needs to be held together only for the instant it takes for the fast chain reaction to split the
fissile nuclei and combine the fusion nuclei. The intense explosion that results, blowing the
nuclear material apart, is the intended result.
Controlled nuclear fusion, without the explosion, has been the objective since the start of the
nuclear age. The problem is heat. Fusion reactors must operate at temperatures vastly
higher than the melting point of every possible structural material. The fusion must be
suspended within an intense magnetic field.
This is hard to do. Once that problem is solved, the dream of limitless energy can be
realized. However, in the near term the issue is the more mundane one of getting political
support for commonplace nuclear fission solutions that have been proven for half a century.
Opening the Space Frontier
Nuclear must be the source of power for long-distance space travel and distant space
colonies. First of all, they have no air to support normal combustion. More importantly, it is
the only solution with enough energy density to make it feasible to send by rocket ship.
Zubrin has given a lot of thought to how to use nuclear to power rocket ships. Fanciful ideas,
but we will be long gone before anybody is in a position to implement them.
Upgrading the Earth
Returning to the realm of near-term practical problems, Zubrin observes that increased CO2
in the atmosphere has so far been a net benefit, lengthening growing seasons worldwide by
about ten days and the total area covered by green leaves by 20%. However, continuing
indefinitely is very likely to be counterproductive. The earth needs an alternative, and that
alternative is nuclear.
Electric power can be used to create chemical energy in the form of hydrogen for
transportation, fertilizers and just about anything else. Put another way, all of our resource
problems boil down to limitations imposed by a shortage of energy.
The Way Forward
Politics, driven by fear, which is in turn driven by vested financial interests is the chief
obstacle to nuclear energy. The public needs to be informed. More than that, we need a
broader realization that our other options are running out. Fossil fuels are somewhat limited.
The atmosphere's ability to absorb CO2 is finite, and our tolerance of the pollution and
environmental damage they cause even more limited.
Their Program and Ours
Zubrin writes: "[The world] saw tens of millions of people slaughtered [in the 20th century] in
the name of struggle for existence that was entirely fictitious. The results of similar thinking in
the twenty-first could be far worse. The logic of the limited resource concept leads down an
ever more infernal path to the worst evils imaginable.
Basically it goes as follows:
Resources are limited.
Therefore: Human aspirations must be crushed.
So, some authority must be empowered to do the crushing.
Since some people must be crushed, we should join with that authority to make sure that it is
those we despise who are the ones crushed, rather than us.
By getting rid of such inferior people, we can preserve scarce resources and advance human
social evolution, thereby helping to make the world a better place."
This blog includes Zubrin's long passage on Vladimir Putin and his pet philosopher Alexandr
Dugin, and how the war in Ukraine is an expression of this mindset.
Zubrin sees growing availability of energy as an essential part of any plan for world peace.
Hydroelectric has long been fully exploited, fossil fuels are limited, and solar, wind and
biomass have never made any sense. Nuclear is the only option. Let's take off our blinders
and use it.