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The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown
Amazon Best Seller in Financial Services Industry, Analysis & Trading Investing Strategies, and Stock Market Investing2023 Nonfiction Book Awards Gold WinnerA better approach to investingThis is not a typical investment book. It is an experiential guide on cultivating the mindset and behavior necessary to weather inherently uncertain and unpredictable markets. It doesn’t just tell you how to invest but how to think better about investing. Referencing studies on psychology, decision making, and investment behavior, Jennings provides a no-nonsense analysis of the financial markets and a road map to navigating its inevitable twists and turns.Jennings uses mental models to create a latticework of wisdom that will help you evaluate investment advice and learn better behavior in the face of uncertainty. To name a ignore expert predictions, be wary of stories, and try to invest like a dead person.An engaging dive into investing psychology and best practices, The Uncertainty Solution is an authoritative, accessible guide for both lay investors and professionals inundated with financial news and data. Read this book to improve your thinking about investing, practice better investment behavior, and ultimately, have more money.
288 pages, Kindle Edition
Published May 2, 2023
59 people are currently reading
548 people want to read
About the author
John M. Jennings
1 book11 followersJohn M. Jennings is president and chief strategist of St. Louis Trust & Family Office, a $15 billion wealth management firm. He is an adjunct professor at Washington University’s Olin Business School and writes on wealth management topics for Forbes. He has finance and law degrees from the University of Missouri and a professional certificate in Decision Making and Behavioral Finance from Harvard.
Personally, he’s of median height, a big fan of coffee, a lover of indie music, and a ravenous St. Louis Blues fan. He lives in University City, Missouri with his wife and dog and has two grown daughters. You can connect with him through his firm’s website, StLouisTrust.com and read his interesting fact of the day blog at www.TheIFoD.com.
Personally, he’s of median height, a big fan of coffee, a lover of indie music, and a ravenous St. Louis Blues fan. He lives in University City, Missouri with his wife and dog and has two grown daughters. You can connect with him through his firm’s website, StLouisTrust.com and read his interesting fact of the day blog at www.TheIFoD.com.
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Displaying 1 - 23 of 23 reviews
April 16, 2023
Uncertainty in investing
It starts out very differently from many investment books (and I have read quite a few).
Before I get too far, I should mention that the book is The Uncertainty Solution:How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown by John M. Jennings. And I thank Netgalley (“https://www.netgalley.com/) for allowing me to read it before publication. The book comes out on May 2.
The author starts us off in Chapter 1 with some psychology experiments and statistics and then gets into what they mean for our decisions in general and decisions related to finance and investing. The rest of the book is a combination of giving more details and discussing related points.
So this is not a book that tells you how to invest. It gets at larger truths and questions you should consider in any kind of decision making, including evaluating investments. With investing there are many unknowns and many things we cannot control. What should be consider in addressing these issues?
Along the way the author discussed many types of investments and their usefulness in various situations. I highly recommend this book as both a good guide to decision making and investing. My belief about investing is that it is a very good thing to read widely on investing and financial history. This book is a valuable part of that.
Whether you are an experienced investor or closer to the beginnings of your saving investing life, I think this book would be of great value.
It starts out very differently from many investment books (and I have read quite a few).
Before I get too far, I should mention that the book is The Uncertainty Solution:How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown by John M. Jennings. And I thank Netgalley (“https://www.netgalley.com/) for allowing me to read it before publication. The book comes out on May 2.
The author starts us off in Chapter 1 with some psychology experiments and statistics and then gets into what they mean for our decisions in general and decisions related to finance and investing. The rest of the book is a combination of giving more details and discussing related points.
So this is not a book that tells you how to invest. It gets at larger truths and questions you should consider in any kind of decision making, including evaluating investments. With investing there are many unknowns and many things we cannot control. What should be consider in addressing these issues?
Along the way the author discussed many types of investments and their usefulness in various situations. I highly recommend this book as both a good guide to decision making and investing. My belief about investing is that it is a very good thing to read widely on investing and financial history. This book is a valuable part of that.
Whether you are an experienced investor or closer to the beginnings of your saving investing life, I think this book would be of great value.
May 25, 2023
not a bad book. sort of a poor man’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow” but applied to investing.
I did find it ironic that out of all the detail and writing about biases, he still doesn’t realize his blind spots related to COVID and how he completely fell for the mainstream narrative which has since been entirely exposed as fraud.
He speaks ill of people who had differing views than him on the topic as “extremist” and “conspiracy theorists,” meanwhile doesn’t realize that the vaccine he took likely caused the blood clots he said he got in October 2021 🤦♂️.
I did find it ironic that out of all the detail and writing about biases, he still doesn’t realize his blind spots related to COVID and how he completely fell for the mainstream narrative which has since been entirely exposed as fraud.
He speaks ill of people who had differing views than him on the topic as “extremist” and “conspiracy theorists,” meanwhile doesn’t realize that the vaccine he took likely caused the blood clots he said he got in October 2021 🤦♂️.
December 25, 2023
A refreshingly simple guide to finance and life. Thoroughly enjoyed the books approach to behavior and psychology and the mental models that can be applied to all aspects of decision making.
June 23, 2023
Gotta admit, I misread the description when I requested this book. Somehow I managed to interpret the topic as being more about investing in your business and your own growth when things are uncertain. When it opened, and he started talking about stocks and trading, I was like, “Aw, shit. I’m gonna hate this, but I committed to writing a review.” BUT - a few chapters in, I was hooked. I really enjoyed this book!
A few of great takeaways:
- “Being correct too early, is indistinguishable from being wrong.” DAMN. I've been here and I don't like it.
- Based on the odds, everyone gets about one 'miracle' a month. (Hey - this guy is from STL and I am too, what are the chances?!? That's my miracle for June I guess, hahaha)
- Chill out. The more you try to control, the more you realize you have no control. It all comes out in the wash.
In addition to the knowledge the author brings to the table, his sense of humor was also on display in this book, in a way that made it entertaining and educational for someone who admittedly wasn't exactly the target market here.
The narration was done very well. At times, business books can be hard in audio form, but this one was a great use of that medium.
Thank you NetGalley and Greenleaf Book Group for sending this book for review consideration. All opinions are my own.
A few of great takeaways:
- “Being correct too early, is indistinguishable from being wrong.” DAMN. I've been here and I don't like it.
- Based on the odds, everyone gets about one 'miracle' a month. (Hey - this guy is from STL and I am too, what are the chances?!? That's my miracle for June I guess, hahaha)
- Chill out. The more you try to control, the more you realize you have no control. It all comes out in the wash.
In addition to the knowledge the author brings to the table, his sense of humor was also on display in this book, in a way that made it entertaining and educational for someone who admittedly wasn't exactly the target market here.
The narration was done very well. At times, business books can be hard in audio form, but this one was a great use of that medium.
Thank you NetGalley and Greenleaf Book Group for sending this book for review consideration. All opinions are my own.
October 22, 2023
In my opinion, this is the modern version of the book (The Intelligent Investor). Very understandable for simple minded people.
August 31, 2023
Really enjoyed reading this. Nice and refreshing.
July 3, 2023
This is a book that will change your mind about how you invest. Unlike many other books on investing this is more of a guide to cultivating the mindset and behavior necessary to weather the uncertainty of unpredictable markets. If you are nervous about investing or can’t handle risk, this book will change your mind and maybe even calm your nerves.
I discovered this book as I prepared to interview John Jennings for the Really Simple Investing podcast.
It doesn’t just tell you how to invest but how to think better about investing. What is really useful is how the author references studies on psychology, decision making, and investment behavior, to provide a no-nonsense analysis of the financial markets and a road map to navigating the twists and turns of investing.
Jennings uses mental models to create a latticework of wisdom that will help you evaluate investment advice and learn better behavior in the face of uncertainty. To name a few: ignore expert predictions, be wary of stories, and try to invest like a dead person.
This book is an engaging dive into investing psychology and best practices, The Uncertainty Solution is an authoritative, accessible guide for both lay investors and professionals inundated with financial news and data. I think this is a book every investor will want to read in order to improve your thinking about investing, practice better investment behavior, and ultimately, have more money in your investment accounts.
Investing in an age of uncertainty requires a different approach than traditional investment strategies. The Uncertainty Solution offers a new approach to investing by embracing uncertainty and using it to your advantage. By focusing on the long-term, understanding behavioral finance, and avoiding short-term thinking, investors can make informed decisions and achieve better returns.
The future outlook for investing in an age of uncertainty is promising. As more investors embrace uncertainty and focus on the long-term, the potential for better returns and avoiding common pitfalls will increase. It is important to remember that investing is a long-term game and requires patience and discipline. By following the principles outlined in The Uncertainty Solution, investors can navigate the complex world of investing and achieve their investment goals.
I discovered this book as I prepared to interview John Jennings for the Really Simple Investing podcast.
It doesn’t just tell you how to invest but how to think better about investing. What is really useful is how the author references studies on psychology, decision making, and investment behavior, to provide a no-nonsense analysis of the financial markets and a road map to navigating the twists and turns of investing.
Jennings uses mental models to create a latticework of wisdom that will help you evaluate investment advice and learn better behavior in the face of uncertainty. To name a few: ignore expert predictions, be wary of stories, and try to invest like a dead person.
This book is an engaging dive into investing psychology and best practices, The Uncertainty Solution is an authoritative, accessible guide for both lay investors and professionals inundated with financial news and data. I think this is a book every investor will want to read in order to improve your thinking about investing, practice better investment behavior, and ultimately, have more money in your investment accounts.
Investing in an age of uncertainty requires a different approach than traditional investment strategies. The Uncertainty Solution offers a new approach to investing by embracing uncertainty and using it to your advantage. By focusing on the long-term, understanding behavioral finance, and avoiding short-term thinking, investors can make informed decisions and achieve better returns.
The future outlook for investing in an age of uncertainty is promising. As more investors embrace uncertainty and focus on the long-term, the potential for better returns and avoiding common pitfalls will increase. It is important to remember that investing is a long-term game and requires patience and discipline. By following the principles outlined in The Uncertainty Solution, investors can navigate the complex world of investing and achieve their investment goals.
January 1, 2024
This is the kind of book that is pretty repetitive of all other investment books, but worth reading because we need to revisit all those ideas once in a while to train our brain to think that way.
One of the best insights I get is this: "the strategies for preserving wealth are largely the opposite of those for generating it". People think investing will make them rich. That's wrong. Wealth generation and wealth preservation are two very different things. "With rare exception, if you want to generate significant wealth, you must be actively involved in a successful business." Only by getting a portion of a successful business can you generate wealth.
This can be summarized as:
Creating great wealth: concentrated, high-risk, active involvement, luck
Preserving great wealth: diversified, low-risk, passive involvement, process
The other good insights:
1. Beating the market requires investing differently than the market, which requires great heart and discipline.
2. You cannot use what is happening in the economy to predict what will happen in the stock market. Because the stock market is a complex adaptive system, economic indicators and market signals don’t predict market performance.
3. Before you put money in any investment, ask yourself three questions: do you know something the market doesn’t? Or are you weighting widely known news differently than everyone else? If so, do you have a good reason?
4. Before you rush into any tech ventures (web3, AI, VR, etc), read this again: "Between 1899 and 1919, 775 car companies entered the industry, and during that same twenty-year period, 600 went out of business. Only seven companies or brands that still exist today were formed before 1920: Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Dodge, Ford, and Lincoln"
5. Thinking in terms of power laws rather than bell curves is essential for developing proper expectations for investment returns. This power law distribution of returns means that there are a vital few days and a few stocks that drive stock market returns.
One of the best insights I get is this: "the strategies for preserving wealth are largely the opposite of those for generating it". People think investing will make them rich. That's wrong. Wealth generation and wealth preservation are two very different things. "With rare exception, if you want to generate significant wealth, you must be actively involved in a successful business." Only by getting a portion of a successful business can you generate wealth.
This can be summarized as:
Creating great wealth: concentrated, high-risk, active involvement, luck
Preserving great wealth: diversified, low-risk, passive involvement, process
The other good insights:
1. Beating the market requires investing differently than the market, which requires great heart and discipline.
2. You cannot use what is happening in the economy to predict what will happen in the stock market. Because the stock market is a complex adaptive system, economic indicators and market signals don’t predict market performance.
3. Before you put money in any investment, ask yourself three questions: do you know something the market doesn’t? Or are you weighting widely known news differently than everyone else? If so, do you have a good reason?
4. Before you rush into any tech ventures (web3, AI, VR, etc), read this again: "Between 1899 and 1919, 775 car companies entered the industry, and during that same twenty-year period, 600 went out of business. Only seven companies or brands that still exist today were formed before 1920: Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Dodge, Ford, and Lincoln"
5. Thinking in terms of power laws rather than bell curves is essential for developing proper expectations for investment returns. This power law distribution of returns means that there are a vital few days and a few stocks that drive stock market returns.
January 5, 2026
Being a good tech investor requires a number of hard to build soft skills: Building range, becoming a contrarian, but also being confident John M. Jennings delivers a powerful psychological toolkit for the modern investor. While most financial literature attempts to sell the illusion of predictability, in The Uncertainty Solution Jennings argues that the true solution to market volatility is not better forecasting, but a better relationship with uncertainty itself. Drawing on a panoply of mental models from psychology and behavioral finance, he explains that our brains are evolutionarily wired to seek patterns and cause-and-effect narratives, traits that were useful for survival on the savannah but are devastatingly counterproductive in a complex, adaptive system like the stock market.
The book is structured as an experiential guide that shifts the focus from “what is the market doing?” to “how am I reacting?” Jennings famously advocates for investing like a dead person, a provocative nod to studies showing that inactive accounts often outperform active ones simply because they avoid the unforced errors of emotional trading. He dismantles the “expert industrial complex,” warning readers to ignore the siren song of market predictions and stories that try to explain away randomness. Instead, he provides a number of core behavioral practices - including radical simplicity, maintaining a margin of safety, and avoiding the dopamine hit of constant portfolio monitoring - to help investors build a robust emotional shell.
This review is originally published within the Money Book Circle in my newsletter. Sign up here for regular reviews of the hottest books on money and technology: https://igorpejic.substack.com/
The book is structured as an experiential guide that shifts the focus from “what is the market doing?” to “how am I reacting?” Jennings famously advocates for investing like a dead person, a provocative nod to studies showing that inactive accounts often outperform active ones simply because they avoid the unforced errors of emotional trading. He dismantles the “expert industrial complex,” warning readers to ignore the siren song of market predictions and stories that try to explain away randomness. Instead, he provides a number of core behavioral practices - including radical simplicity, maintaining a margin of safety, and avoiding the dopamine hit of constant portfolio monitoring - to help investors build a robust emotional shell.
This review is originally published within the Money Book Circle in my newsletter. Sign up here for regular reviews of the hottest books on money and technology: https://igorpejic.substack.com/
February 21, 2024
In "The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown," John M. Jennings offers a profound and insightful exploration into the world of investing, particularly focusing on how to maneuver through the inherent uncertainties that come with it. This book couldn't have come at a more opportune time, as investors of all levels are grappling with unpredictable markets, rapid technological advancements, and global economic shifts.
The book is structured in a way that guides readers through the psychological aspects of investing, the importance of risk management, and the practical steps to crafting a resilient investment portfolio. Jennings's use of real-world examples and case studies not only illustrates his points but also makes the content relatable and applicable to everyday investors.
One of the most valuable takeaways from the book is the emphasis on the mindset needed to navigate uncertain markets. Jennings advocates for a balanced approach, combining thorough research with a level-headed perspective to avoid the common pitfalls of emotional investing. His insights on the psychological barriers that often hinder investors are particularly enlightening, offering readers strategies to overcome these challenges.
"The Uncertainty Solution" is more than just a book about investing; it's a roadmap for building confidence in the face of the unknown. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, Jennings's strategies for managing uncertainty are indispensable. His writing is clear, concise, and engaging, making complex subjects accessible to a broad audience.
The book is structured in a way that guides readers through the psychological aspects of investing, the importance of risk management, and the practical steps to crafting a resilient investment portfolio. Jennings's use of real-world examples and case studies not only illustrates his points but also makes the content relatable and applicable to everyday investors.
One of the most valuable takeaways from the book is the emphasis on the mindset needed to navigate uncertain markets. Jennings advocates for a balanced approach, combining thorough research with a level-headed perspective to avoid the common pitfalls of emotional investing. His insights on the psychological barriers that often hinder investors are particularly enlightening, offering readers strategies to overcome these challenges.
"The Uncertainty Solution" is more than just a book about investing; it's a roadmap for building confidence in the face of the unknown. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, Jennings's strategies for managing uncertainty are indispensable. His writing is clear, concise, and engaging, making complex subjects accessible to a broad audience.
June 11, 2023
I picked it as a casual recommendation and what a gem this one turned out to be. This book is full of amazing yet simple wisdom which so many investors fail to comprehend.
The author uses simple examples and case studies to put forth his point of view. Everyone would gain something out of this.
The author uses simple examples and case studies to put forth his point of view. Everyone would gain something out of this.
February 21, 2024
Super background to psychology of investing
Provides a stepladder through the conceptions and misconceptions involved in investing. By the end of the book you should be able to see the legitimate areas in which to concentrate and those to avoid.
Provides a stepladder through the conceptions and misconceptions involved in investing. By the end of the book you should be able to see the legitimate areas in which to concentrate and those to avoid.
August 3, 2024
For someone with no investment experience, this is a great summary of best practices and common pitfalls.
Personally, I didn't learn much, but seeing all the data presented in one place was a good reminder on the narrative, recursive, human nature of the stock market.
Personally, I didn't learn much, but seeing all the data presented in one place was a good reminder on the narrative, recursive, human nature of the stock market.
May 15, 2023
This is quite good. Lots of good data and advice here. There are no shortage of investment books, and this one may be worth a look.
I really appreciate the free copy for review!!
I really appreciate the free copy for review!!
October 25, 2023
4.5 - Short & sweet, good investing foundations (in funds/publicly traded companies)
July 23, 2024
A book I always looked for, easy to read, insightful mental models like Charlie Munger always described but poor Charlie’s almanac fails to deliver.
August 16, 2024
Good refresher of an old message. Very convincing.
October 8, 2024
It’s a new book with stale information for inviting.
March 23, 2025
Every investors should read this. It's like adopting to a healthy diet or habits in the world of investment.
March 31, 2025
A book that quotes Daniel Kahneman, Howard Marks, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb (even though I dislike probability books I admit he is well-renowned)? That's a 5 from me.
It's a very good summary of lots of concepts I've learned from other books, but there wasn't much new. That is not a nitpick against the book, but the realization that I've already read a lot and my opinion and approach have been well-formed by them. My advice is to search for and dig deeper by reading more books on the topics that sounded interesting, if you haven't already. If someone starts their investing journey by reading or listening to this, they will be better off than following random cryptobros on Twitter and opening a Robinhood account then mindlessly buying TSLA.
There are so many interesting and quotable concepts in this one! Since I've just listened to it, I can merely describe ones that I liked and won't copy-paste passages. For example, early movers don't necessarily have lasting advantage. The medal goes to those that follow at the right time, so they don't have to experiment too much and pay for R&D just "we'll take it from here" from the poor sucker who first developed the technology but had less funding. That's kinda what big tech does, scooping up, copying, taking over etc. the small fish. The good news? You can be a shareholder of them.
There was a general undertone that goes against individual stock picking, I like those (even though I'm happy with self-picked stocks and outperform the market with them), because these are a reminder that the odds are against me and I have to cherish the results. It reminded me to avoid funds because of their fees... There is a lot more!
I always say, go on the Amazon page of the book, switch to Kindle edition, Read sample, and scroll to the ToC. Wait, here it is:
- The Quest for Certainty
- Looking for Causes in All the Wrong Places
- The Stock Market Is Not the Economy (or What Toilet Paper Can Teach Us About Investing)
- Market Cycles and the Two Axioms of Investing
- Beware Experts Bearing Predictions
- Skill and Luck in Investing
- The Trend Is Not Your Friend
- The Trivial Many Versus the Vital Few
- Navigating Our Behavioral Biases
- Behavior—The Most Important Ingredient
- Conclusion: There’s Grandeur in this View of Investing
- Appendix: The Mental Models
Just randomly remembering stuff: the book pointed out that experts suck at predictions, mentioned that women and dead people outperform others especially single guys (lol) (because they trade less), small and less complex portfolios tend to perform better than big and complicated ones, summarized the most important behavioral biases, argued for the role of chance in investing, against daily checking of and tinkering with your portfolio... The usual good stuff. The book's strength comes from putting these all together, so it was a good recap of these topics even if they were not very new to me.
It's a very good summary of lots of concepts I've learned from other books, but there wasn't much new. That is not a nitpick against the book, but the realization that I've already read a lot and my opinion and approach have been well-formed by them. My advice is to search for and dig deeper by reading more books on the topics that sounded interesting, if you haven't already. If someone starts their investing journey by reading or listening to this, they will be better off than following random cryptobros on Twitter and opening a Robinhood account then mindlessly buying TSLA.
There are so many interesting and quotable concepts in this one! Since I've just listened to it, I can merely describe ones that I liked and won't copy-paste passages. For example, early movers don't necessarily have lasting advantage. The medal goes to those that follow at the right time, so they don't have to experiment too much and pay for R&D just "we'll take it from here" from the poor sucker who first developed the technology but had less funding. That's kinda what big tech does, scooping up, copying, taking over etc. the small fish. The good news? You can be a shareholder of them.
There was a general undertone that goes against individual stock picking, I like those (even though I'm happy with self-picked stocks and outperform the market with them), because these are a reminder that the odds are against me and I have to cherish the results. It reminded me to avoid funds because of their fees... There is a lot more!
I always say, go on the Amazon page of the book, switch to Kindle edition, Read sample, and scroll to the ToC. Wait, here it is:
- The Quest for Certainty
- Looking for Causes in All the Wrong Places
- The Stock Market Is Not the Economy (or What Toilet Paper Can Teach Us About Investing)
- Market Cycles and the Two Axioms of Investing
- Beware Experts Bearing Predictions
- Skill and Luck in Investing
- The Trend Is Not Your Friend
- The Trivial Many Versus the Vital Few
- Navigating Our Behavioral Biases
- Behavior—The Most Important Ingredient
- Conclusion: There’s Grandeur in this View of Investing
- Appendix: The Mental Models
Just randomly remembering stuff: the book pointed out that experts suck at predictions, mentioned that women and dead people outperform others especially single guys (lol) (because they trade less), small and less complex portfolios tend to perform better than big and complicated ones, summarized the most important behavioral biases, argued for the role of chance in investing, against daily checking of and tinkering with your portfolio... The usual good stuff. The book's strength comes from putting these all together, so it was a good recap of these topics even if they were not very new to me.
April 16, 2024
I am probably not the target audience for this book. While educational, the book did not add much to my knowledge from A Random Walk down Wall Street.
Don’t try to time the market. Learn to tolerate short-term risks and instead, bet on the long-term trend.
The bit about private equity was interesting, but isn’t applicable to me given my net worth.
Don’t try to time the market. Learn to tolerate short-term risks and instead, bet on the long-term trend.
The bit about private equity was interesting, but isn’t applicable to me given my net worth.
June 25, 2024
Great read once familiar with Nassim Taleb and Benoit Mandelbrot's work. This serves as more of a guide on how to deal with uncertainty and risk. Great book with really sound and applicable investment advice.
June 20, 2024
If you are new to investing, sure decent book. If you have been doing it for sometime, this is Google search very high level blog kind of work
Displaying 1 - 23 of 23 reviews