The Supply Chain - An Australian Perspective on a Global Debate
Much has been written on the question of climate change and the move towards a carbon neutral future. But I had not yet read (or thought much about) the challenges of getting all the building blocks in place (infrastructure, transportation etc). It's all very well to get excited about solar and wind as our energy future - but much of this infrastructure requires minerals that are not currently available in large quantities - so new mines must be developed in an energy efficient manner and transported to the manufacturing site - wherever that may be in the world. Enter Alan Finkel - an Australian scientist and businessman who was appointed to a role as Australia's Chief Scientist from 2016 to 2020 where he provided high level advice on science, technology and innovation to the government of the day. Given his background, it is not surprising, and is quite welcome, that the book is heavy on the technical challenges and accompanying facts and figures. He makes some compelling arguments for Australia to play a leading role in this transition.
The headline news is encouraging - greenhouse gas emissions are down by 20% or more at several OECD countries (Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) between 2005 and 2019 (US down by 13%), but this is largely the result of transference of manufacturing to other lower cost markets (China and India) where emissions are up. Carbon neutrality is a noble national goal, but the issue is global. The author knows his stuff - the book is very readable even as he packs a lot of facts and figures into the discussion. He tackles the critics of clean energy head-on, noting that while there are challenges in connecting wind and solar power to the grid, this is outweighed by a number of advantages.
The author spends much of the book focused on the supply chain so that clean energy solutions can be deployed more quickly at lower cost. The Indo-Pacific accounts for 60% of global energy consumption, and has 65% of global rare earth element reserves, 89% of global solar PV module manufacturing and 86% of global lithium battery production. As he discusses the range of options and challenges that must be overcome to reach carbon neutrality, he discusses many of the start-up companies around the world that are addressing these issues. He addresses the opportunities for newer technologies to play a role (such as a chance for blockchain to track the the progress of the minerals used in production of clean energy products) as well as the potential for the World Bank to play a more assertive role. One of the themes of the book relates to respecting the rights of Traditional Owners. More than 60% of new mines will be on or adjacent to the land of Traditional Owners, so mining companies and governments must ensure that local communities are engaged in the planning of new facilities and are fairly compensated.
At a global level, in 1990 87% of all energy came from fossil fuels (the rest coming from nuclear, hydro and some other sources). Fast forward to 2021 and that number only decreases to 83%. While clean sources (solar and wind) increased significantly during this period, it was offset by an increase in total energy consumption of 72%, reflecting improving economies in third world countries. The year 2021 was a milestone year for the auto industry. Of the 66.7 million new cars sold, 6.6 million were EV's - a 10% threshold, largely driven by China.
He spends the final chapter discussing the opportunities for Australia in this new, decarbonized world. The lucky country could get even luckier as economic opportunity will abound for those who get in early .... but the time is now! The book was an educational and enjoyable read and yet another step in my journey to better understand the opportunities, risks and challenges facing our planet from global warming.