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The Paradox of Debt: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis

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When we talk about debt and its impact on our economy, we almost always mean “government debt.” However, this is only a small part of the picture: individuals, private firms, and households owe trillions, and these private debts are vital to understanding the economy.

In this iconoclastic book, Richard Vague examines the assets, liabilities, and incomes of the entire country, private and public sector, to reveal its net worth. His holistic analysis shows that the real factor that drives both financial crises and spiraling inequality―but also, paradoxically, economic growth―is ever rising private debt. The paradox is that while debt is essential and our economy relies on it, it also brings instability unless it is periodically deleveraged―and that is very hard to do. It can, however, be carefully managed, and Vague ends the book by showing how to do so in policy areas ranging from trade and housing to financial policy and student debt.

Underpinned by pioneering data analysis and the author’s lifetime of experience in the financial world, this book is essential for anyone who wants to understand the deep, underlying dynamics of the American economy.

304 pages, Hardcover

Published July 11, 2023

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Richard Vague

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Displaying 1 - 25 of 25 reviews
Profile Image for Marthe Naudts.
19 reviews1 follower
February 10, 2024
Paradox of debt = public and private debt are both the ultimate drivers and destroyers of wealth. Decent overview of biggest debt crises in past century, but tends to focus on G7 countries. Interestingly never really covers how international debt is such a key source of soft power and the post-colonial experience of a lot of south american and sub-saharan african countries racking up debt from US/China.

Interesting points to remember:

- The ratio of debt to income in economies always rises. Money itself is created by debt, and so new money through QE and other OMOs (and therefore new debt) is required for growth.
- Distinguish between two types of debt: type 1 debt is borrowing for the spending on newly created assets that contribute to GDP (food, vacation, newly built houses) type 2 is borrowing for purchasing existing assets (e.g. houses, shares). The efficacy of QE depends on what type of debt this becomes- because it typically involves buying back bonds from investment companies, who are inclined to then use the proceeds to invest in another asset like equities, QE is less liekly to be Type 2 debt and not contribute in any trickle-down way to income growth.
- Type 2 debt has started to significantly surpass type 1 in the US, signalling we are nearing the end of an economic cycle as productivity/output/income stops matching interest payments (Dalio).
- Debt will always build wealth inequality- middle to lower income households carry a disproportionate relative share of household debt burden. Debt is also primary driver of stock and real estate appreciation- but top 10% own 60% of all stocks/real estates - so debt perpetuates asset inequality too because the wealthy hold all the assets, and assets grow faster than income through the perpetual rise in debt.
- Policy potential beyond regulating moral hazard: bankruptcy law reform (apparently currently wildly outdated, and elizabeth warren is specialist in this?), various (health, student, mortgage) debt relief schemes and jubilees, macroeconomic focusing on reversing the trade deficit and taming inflation, focus on building wealth for bottom 60%
Profile Image for Ints.
847 reviews86 followers
October 18, 2024
Nebija ne vainas, iesākumā pagarš ievads makroekonomikā. Var jau saprast, autors vēlas savam lasītājam ielikt pamatus, lai šis spētu uztvert domas dziļumu. Visādi citādi daudz un dikti, ka bez valsts parāda pieauguma, nav iespējam valsts izaugsme, vismaz ne tik strauja kā visi vēlētos. Papildus pētīti dažādi valsts parāda blakusefekti, kā sabiedrības nevienlīdzība, inflācija iespēja nomaksāt parādus.

Kopējo secinājumu var pateikt vienā teikumā - parāds ir nepieciešams izaugsme bet viņa sabalansētības nodrošināšana ir kā žonglēšana ar nažiem.
Profile Image for BookTrib.com .
1,984 reviews167 followers
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July 19, 2023
THE PARADOX OF DEBT: A NEW PATH TO PROSPERITY WITHOUT CRISIS by economic expert Richard Vague is an important and enlightening book that tackles every element of debt. A must read if you need to get control of your finances!

Read the full review on BookTrib.com
Profile Image for Jehiel L.
33 reviews1 follower
October 23, 2025
"Debt is a paradox. It creates and destroys."

Growth in debt has persistently outpaced economic growth across the world. Debt plays a crucial function in facilitating real economic activity and its expansion. Debt also facilitates transactions which are not part of growing GDP, i.e. activity which does not produce anything new. The debt which does not contribute to GDP growth has grown faster than debt which does. More important than government debt is private sector debt, which has exploded alongside public debt. The explosion of non-financial private debt is of great concern to Vague, who sees in it a signal of economic sluggishness and fragility. It's not so much this debt as its rapid growth which causes problems. Overgrowth of debt leads to economic imbalance and overcapacity, and a pile of bad debt. Bad debt in housing and its consequences is a familiar story to us.

What Vague calls the 'debt explosion' began in the 1980s. This has seen a meteoric rise in asset prices, mostly stocks and real estate. Real estate liabilities are the greatest contributor to the explosion of non-financial private debt. But stock prices have also sharply escalated, though with volatility. This is usually explained as being caused by falling interest rates, though Vague argues that rising debt, falling interest rates, and rising asset prices are casually interrelated (this against the argument that rising debt leads to rising rates). Government debt has fed more into household net worth, the inflation of asset prices, than into consumer goods inflation. Rising government debt has been offset by rising household net worth. The situation is uneven, with different countries having different models of debt-fueled growth, but the overall trend applies across the major economies of the world.

The households are not equal, though. Debt by its wealth inflation effect generates inequality. Asset price inflation is most of the story of exploding inequality. The top 10% hold the majority of assets, while the bottom 60% hold next to nothing. The net worth of the top 10% has exploded while their debt-to-income ratio has grown only modestly. Meanwhile the debt-to-income ratio of the bottom 60% has doubled, while their net worth has actually declined. The thing that's trickled down is debt, not wealth. With such extreme inequality in wealth, even things like government handouts disproportionately benefit the wealthy by not only increasing their revenues but also pumping their asset prices. The top 10% systematically accrue great benefits; debt growth consistently outpaces GDP growth, and the people in the position to greatly benefit from that are the rich.

Vague's argument about inflation is significant. He argues that government spending is not the cause of inflation. Historic bouts of inflation Vague explains by events like the US maintenance of the gold standard, the oil shock of the 1970s, and more recently the supply chain disruptions of the war in Ukraine and pandemic; systemic and real economic issues. There have been many cases of increased money supply or increased government debt not coinciding with increased inflation. Solving inflation requires solving the underlying problem, which often involves long-run adjustments. From this view, interest rate rises are a very unfortunate blunt force tool for pushing down inflation, as they merely counteract rather than resolve the cause of inflation, at the expense of many ordinary people.

Vague develops a critique of equilibrium models of credit and debt. In chapter 8 he charts the historical development of modern debt starting in the late 1700s. Government debt expanded in episodes of war financing and economic crisis response. Vague proposes a staircase model of the historical development of debt, with each cycle of expansion pushing the world economy up to a higher overall level of debt, debt ever increasing. Though at the same time he situates his own model within certain limits; Vague admits that after a certain degree of indebtedness, the debt-growth model breaks down, and debt fails to spur new growth. This is happening in Japan today. At the same time, growth of debt cannot go on forever, as at the very least interest must be repaid. How far it can go before something goes terribly wrong is not known, all we know is that it can't go on forever.

There have only been exceptional cases where a country has ever achieved overall deleveraging. Most cases of government debt reduction have only been able to happen alongside exploding private debt. It is very hard to see government debt today ever getting paid back through economic growth. What governments usually aim for instead is to have the economy grow faster than government debt. However the overall picture is that debt is required for economic growth to occur, and that there are structural reasons for debt growing faster than GDP. Inflating our way out of debt is a cure worse than death, as it would require a sustained period of a punishing level of inflation to make a dent in the debt-to-GDP ratio, and this assumes that the whole process itself doesn't prompt a new debt explosion or real economic contraction. Cutting back on growth to pay down debt would require enormous restraint even if it was to go smoothly. There are no conventional solutions.

Vague's suggestions are mixed. He calls for monitoring of industry capacity and reigning in credit if there's oversupply feeding into overcapacity in that given sector. He calls for extensive regulation not only of lenders but of the credit market as a whole. He also calls for debt jubilee programs as a kind of 'cooling vent' to the economy, and also calls for action taken after bankruptcy to be about help rather than punishment, to allow individuals and families a new life after the event. His suggestions for reducing western trade deficits are solutions only for those nations rather than the world economy, and his advice is basically about reproducing the inequalities of global trade with western countries to dominate production of high-end manufacturing goods. This is ironic given that production imbalances of this kind are a part of the debt traps facing the developing world.

Vague also focuses on the goal of growing the assets of the bottom 60%. But his solution to this is to raise incomes, which is supportable but portrays the real need of ordinary people. He advocates organised collective training programs whereby people after training are guaranteed a job with a good income. This would involve wrangling companies to guarantee hiring. Butthis misses the fact which Vague portrays, that the economy despite such measures is geared so that those who hold the assets today ramp their wealth. Ownership and control are the two aspects of capitalist domination which constrict economic life. The tendencies which Vague identifies could one day pose such problems that the solution of socialisation of the banks and commanding heights of the economy becomes the only way of resolving economic crisis without great agony for the masses of ordinary and poor people.
1,472 reviews20 followers
November 30, 2023
These days, all the talk about debt usually means "government debt." This book provides evidence that debt is not always a bad thing.

Did you know that the levels of private debt, including mortgages, credit cards and student loans, is several times greater than government debt? Debt can be a good thing. A married couple getting a mortgage to buy their first home, or a businessman buying equipment for his company, are examples of "good" debt. "Bad" debt drives periodic financial crises and fast-rising levels of income inequality.

According to the author, debt needs to be carefully monitored in areas like housing, trade and student loans (the book explains). His creation of the mythical LoanLand, to help explain some of these topics in very basic terms, helps a lot.

This is an interesting book. For those who are into charts, there are many of them. Yes, this is worth reading for those who want to learn about the financial world.
Profile Image for Mario Gomez.
2 reviews
March 19, 2024
Sinceramente me gustó mucho Este libro y me pareció muy interesante.

La habilidad del autor para explicar a detalle, y con peras y manzanas, es muy buena. A pesar de ser un tema que puede verse muy “técnico” lo explica de una manera muy entendible.

El libro aborda importancia y el beneficio de contraer deuda para poder crecer; pero a su vez, dependiendo el uso/destino del flujo obtenido por haber contraído dicha deuda, esto puede beneficiar o perjudicar.

A nivel país explica lo que implica que el gobierno se endeude respecto de su PIB, el nivel de deuda del sector privado, y efectos en la balanza comercial, entre otras cosas. También repasa el tema de las crisis financieras sucedidas en el pasado y algunas recomendaciones que el considera que pudieran adoptarse en EUA.

Con todo esto se elige el nombre del libro por que la deuda puede beneficiar en el crecimiento de los negocios / países, pero, a su vez, también puede destruir o causar caos.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
Profile Image for Laura.
280 reviews5 followers
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November 8, 2023
Thorough lesson on economics

Whew. This book was a bit of a brain stretcher for me. It's a great book for someone wanting to learn about economics. It covers economics in detail, understandable for the lay person who has aptitude and interest in this topic, but a bit of a challenge as well. The author goes into global, national, and household debt, and all the implications thereof.
I'd definitely keep my recommendation for this book for someone who has an interest in learning more about this topic, perhaps someone who is considering economics as a college major, or someone who is considering changing career fields into economics. It's a great book, well-written and very thorough, with great examples and lessons to make it understandable for someone just starting out in this field.
Profile Image for Candice Barbara.
168 reviews3 followers
December 18, 2023
The paradox of Debt: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis was written by Richard Vague. In this book, Vague discusses one particular aspect of the financial world: debt. This book dives into the understanding of how debt can have an impact on different aspects of the financial world including households and private firms. Throughout the opening chapter the author shares with the reader a greater understanding of debt. This chapter shares how debt is required for growth. As the book continues, graphs are depicted which show the debt and shows how it affects a variety of areas. Through the rest of the book, you are given a greater understanding of debt; including the negative side, and possibly how it can have limits. I find this book helpful in understanding the value and the deficiency of debt.
Profile Image for Mehtap exotiquetv.
487 reviews259 followers
September 8, 2024
In ‚The Paradox of Debt’ beleuchtet der Autor, wie Schulden in modernen Wirtschaftssystemen sowohl als Risiko als auch als notwendiges Werkzeug zur Förderung von Wachstum dienen können. Er hinterfragt gängige Annahmen über staatliche und private Schulden und zeigt auf, dass das Problem nicht die Schulden an sich, sondern deren falsches Verständnis und Management ist.

Besonders interessant fand ich die Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf Länder wie Deutschland und die USA. Der Autor schafft es, komplexe Zusammenhänge verständlich zu erklären, unterstützt durch viele Schaubilder. Allerdings wirkte das Buch stellenweise etwas trocken und hätte an einigen Stellen mehr Tiefgang vertragen. Insgesamt ein lesenswertes Werk, wenn man sich für Wirtschaftsthemen interessiert.

⭐️⭐️⭐️ / 5
Profile Image for Steven Finkelstein.
965 reviews10 followers
November 6, 2023
It’s pretty common to struggle when trying to comprehend the complexities of the economy. The many forces that drive it are little less than mystifying to someone who hasn’t studied it in any great detail. None the less, it dramatically impacts each of our lives, sometimes in ways of which we’re not even aware.

The Paradox of Debt endeavors to teach the layperson about the economy, and it does so quite well. Richard Vague is able to break down the various factors that typically lead to prosperity, and also the ones that prevent it. This is a great read for anyone who wants a better and more complete understanding of the economic tides that govern not only this nation, but each of our individual chances to thrive as well.
Profile Image for Jessica.
2,332 reviews23 followers
November 7, 2023
Economics

One major statement in the epilogue suns up the main premise of this book nicely: "Debt builds household net worth while also increasing inequality; it is essential for economic growth and yet, in excess, leads all but inevitably to periodic economic calamity and stagnation."
This book is very informative and educational regarding debt and how it interacts with GDP, the private and public sector and how the various financial catastrophes were influenced by debt. The author examines not just the USA, but other countries as well such as UK, and China. While this is certainly interesting and the ideas are not fully novel, the sheer amount of information in here means that unless you have a background in finances, you will struggle at times to follow along.
Profile Image for Agustina Sureda.
606 reviews13 followers
December 6, 2023
The Paradox of Debt: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis is a book written by Richard Vague, former Secretary of Banking and Securities for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Vague's insightful and rich perspective on debt can guide their readers to fully comprehend the very structure of the economy.
To be honest, I was a bit scared to read this book, I am not usually a smart cookie when it comes to the economy and how everything works, but I am now blown away by the amount of knowledge I achieved. Richar's writing is easy to follow and he explains the process with simplicity, and real-world situations. I highly recommend this to anyone who is not only interested in beating debt, but also learning a lot in the process!
Profile Image for Ivan M.
838 reviews22 followers
December 9, 2023
"The Paradox of Debt" by  Richard  Vague is a groundbreaking exploration that unveils the core of economic prosperity and instability. The author's meticulous examination of national assets, liabilities, and income offers a holistic view, spotlighting the pivotal role of rising private debt in both economic growth and crises. Through pioneering data analysis and extensive financial expertise, Richard Vague dissects the paradoxical nature of debt, emphasizing its necessity while highlighting its potential for instability. This five-star read doesn't just diagnose issues, it also provides comprehensive policy solutions, making it essential for understanding America's economic undercurrents. A must-read for those seeking to grasp the intricate dynamics shaping our economy's future.
33 reviews
January 14, 2024
This book does a fantastic job of explaining debt of various levels and its role in society. While many focus on government debt, this gives a more comprehensive view of debt at every level, including personal debt. There are numerous tables and charts that can be used for visual representation of GDP and other factors. This book simplifies the information down to where it can be easily digested and understood, even for those, who like myself, struggle to comprehend the many angles of debt. Prior to reading this book, I had the common misconception that all debt was bad. In reality, it isn't. Some debt can actually be considered "good debt". If this baffles you, give this book a read. You won't regret it!
Profile Image for Almiria.
738 reviews10 followers
November 8, 2023
The Paradox of Debt is a useful study by Richard Vague on what is usually a complicated aspect of the economy. He takes real life examples to help the reader gain a clearer picture of how debt works and how it can actually improve your wealth if managed correctly. The author also takes a fascinating look at, not only the United States’ economy and relationship with debt, but also at other major economies such as the United Kingdom, Germany and India. In the pages of this concise and comprehensive book you will learn everything you need to know about debt and how to use it to your advantage. Highly recommended!
Profile Image for ZebraDebra .
384 reviews6 followers
November 9, 2023
The Paradox of Debt is an interesting self help guide book that explores and explains debt in the private sector, as well as in the government sector. There were some parts that I found difficult to understand because I do not find economic studies that easy. However, the author helped me to get a better general grasp on what is going on with debt in such countries as the United States, Japan and India among others. He also points out the limitations of debt and he takes a thorough examination of private debt. On the whole, this is an important read for those who wish to further their understanding of debt.
Profile Image for S Tyty.
1,276 reviews29 followers
November 10, 2023
The Paradox of Debt is a truly informational book like no other book of the kind. Vague helps us put all the pieces of our financial life together without making us feel overwhelmed or ashamed about our circumstances and about what we know about the economy up until now.
The book is not only meant for those who need to budget better, slash debt, save more money, learn to invest, boost net worth, or build their wealth, this narrative goes way beyond that since it offers an essential understanding for anyone who wants to get the deep, underlying dynamics of the American economy which it may sometimes be misleading.
Profile Image for Margarita Garcia.
1,016 reviews21 followers
November 10, 2023
''The Paradox of Debt: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis'' written by Richard Vague brings us in this book a general perspective on how the economy works in the United States. In this book, the author makes an in-depth analysis of public and private debts and how they affect our economies. I would like to recommend this book to those who want to have a better understanding of economics in general or for students. The book is well written and easy to read and allows us to better understand different concepts that are sometimes a bit difficult. The author has a good way of writing that makes it easy.
Profile Image for Chico's Mom.
952 reviews8 followers
November 11, 2023
The Paradox of Debt explores the tight relationship between individual, corporate and national debt within the American Economy. It's a great resource on understanding debt and how to prevent or overcome it. This would be a great read for policy makers, educators, business owners, and most especially citizens . It is a well-researched and insightful book that can help us understand everything that it is to know about debts. The chapter about the dark side of debt was most informational and scared me a little bit, but in the end, it has taught me a lot on how I am able to understand the concept which would be very helpful if ever I am able to speak to our governor.
Profile Image for Saya Jacaranda.
755 reviews11 followers
November 13, 2023
fascinating book

“The Paradox of Debt” by Vague is a fascinating book. I really like economy in all its aspects. Although it is quite a complicated and sometimes abstract thing to grab, this book manages to explain it in a simple way. You don’t need to be an expert to understand this and that’s what I loved. The topic of debt is and has always been a polemic question in the society and the author shows the many facets of it. Debt is not only a bad or a good thing. It has both sides and it is critical to manage it in a balanced and rational way in order to be on the safer side.
Profile Image for Melissa Hernandez.
412 reviews17 followers
November 10, 2023
This is a hefty read. Richard Vague breaks down debt in the different realms around the world - private and public sectors, UK, China, and here in the US. It's a good read if you're wanting to learn more about our economy and maybe have thoughts on how we, as a country, can grow just a bit further forward. I would definitely suggest taking breaks to digest what you're reading. It's a lot, and it's good.
Profile Image for Paul Gibson.
Author 6 books17 followers
December 28, 2023
What a fun book. A very interesting perspective. I, like many people I know, bought into various popular theories of monetary policy but after paying attention over the years, none of this has made much sense. This book is helpful in making sense of money’s basis and how money works. Maybe no economic model is true but this information is very helpful.
Profile Image for Carlos mutua.
448 reviews2 followers
November 25, 2023
learn the effects debts

Nice boom to read as it cover the negative aspects of debt and how it affects the economy at all time.
13 reviews
July 25, 2025
Richard Vague’s The Paradox of Debt offers a compelling argument about the crucial role of private debt in driving economic growth, challenging the conventional view that debt is inherently bad. The book is well-researched, drawing on historical case studies and data to show how credit expansion fuels booms and how excessive deleveraging can lead to stagnation.

One of its strengths is its depth of analysis, making it an insightful read for those interested in financial history and policy. However, the book may be challenging for readers without a solid foundation in finance, economics, and accounting. Some of the concepts, while well-explained, require prior knowledge to fully appreciate, which could make it less accessible to a general audience.

Despite this, The Paradox of Debt is a valuable read for those looking to understand the deeper dynamics of credit cycles and economic policy. It provides a fresh perspective on debt and growth, making it a worthwhile addition to discussions on financial stability and economic strategy.
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