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We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years

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A FINANCIAL TIMES 'BOOK TO READ IN 2023'




“Everything you wanted to know about inflation but were afraid to ask.”—Mervyn King



"King's lessons command our attention.”—Lawrence H. Summers



"Maybe you don’t think inflation is back for good. That is your right. But you’d be advised to read this book first.”—Stephanie Flanders


From investors and monetary authorities to governments and policy makers, almost everyone had assumed inflation was dead and buried. But now people the world over are confronting a poisonous new economic reality and, with it, the prospect of vast and increasing wealth inequality.



How have we arrived in this situation? And what, if anything, can we do about it?



Celebrated economist Stephen D. King—one of the few to warn ahead of time about the latest inflationary upheaval—identifies key lessons from the history of inflation that policy makers chose not to heed. From ancient Rome through the American Civil War and up to the asset bubbles of today, inflation stems from policy error, sovereign greed, and a collective loss of faith in currencies.


We Need to Talk About Inflation cuts through centuries of bad judgment and misunderstanding, offering a means to intervene now—so we can begin to tackle the political and social upheaval unleashed by inflation.

233 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2023

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591 people want to read

About the author

Stephen D. King

14 books11 followers
Stephen D. King is HSBC's group chief economist and the bank's global head of economics and asset allocation research.
He writes a weekly column for the London Independent and is a member of the European Central Bank Shadow Council and the Financial Times Economists' Forum.
He is a British national living in London.

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5 stars
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74 (37%)
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Displaying 1 - 24 of 24 reviews
Profile Image for Ian.
965 reviews60 followers
June 29, 2024
I read this after seeing the review of a GR Friend.

I struggle to understand macroeconomic issues, although as a citizen who casts a vote I feel I should at least try to understand some of them. On the plus side, I sometimes feel I understand them better than some of the MSPs and MPs who legislate for Scotland and the UK. Then again, that’s a pretty low bar to clear.

Less than 10 years ago, economists in the UK were telling the population that inflation was no longer anything to worry about and that we could expect a lengthy period of deflationary pressure and near-zero interest rates. In 2023 the inflation rate in the UK went over 11%, though it is now back down to just over 2%. This sort of pattern is one of the main messages of the book, where the author argues that inflation may lie dormant but never goes away. It is, as he puts it, “the economic equivalent of Hollywood’s Terminator. ‘I’ll be back’, is the shared mantra.” In the author’s view, inflation is never something to be complacent about. A particular danger lies in the temptation it poses to governments. “Inflation is a mechanism that rewards debtors, even as it punishes creditors. As one of the biggest such debtors in any economy is typically the government, inflation can be a ‘useful’ way out of an otherwise impossible fiscal situation.”

The author takes the view that loose monetary policy is the most common driver of inflation. He acknowledges other factors but tends to disparage politicians and central bankers who blame inflation on world events which they can’t control. He dismisses MMT as wishful thinking, but neither is he a “pure monetarist”, as he acknowledges that quantitative easing is required to deal with periods of strong deflationary pressure, such as following the 2008 banking crash.

The other main message of the book is about trust in money. When inflation gets out of hand people will adopt an “anything but cash” approach, and get rid of their money on whatever goods they can get hold of. “Periods of hyperinflation are not simply stories about the printing of money…they also reflect a collapse in trust regarding money, both as a store of value and as a medium of exchange.” This element of trust is a tricky thing to gauge, but it can easily be lost.

The author outlines both the harms that arise from inflation and those arising from the need to control it. He is firm though in arguing that it is better to tackle the problem when it starts to appear. The longer it is left, the more unpalatable the cure.

Basically the book left me with the impression that it’s a devilishly complex business. Having read the book I feel I understand inflation a bit better, but…only a bit.
Profile Image for Stefania Dzhanamova.
535 reviews560 followers
March 27, 2024
This book is a remarkably helpful introduction to inflation for beginner economists. Stephen D. King explains, in a graspable and engaging way, why inflation is important, why and how previous efforts to combat it have failed, and what governments, central banks, and us citizens can do to bring it down when it raises its head.
King's work is no beach read, especially for readers without a degree in Economics. It took me four days to plough through it, and I had to consult Investopedia every other page to learn about concepts like quantitive easing, cycle peak, policy rate, transactions velocity, and so on. However, now that I have finished reading it, I can say that my understanding of inflation has improved exponentially.
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT INFLATION is a book that I would enthusiastically recommend to anyone because we are all impacted by inflation and because, as its unexpected rise after the pandemic showed, inflation is an issue not of bygone times, but of the present.
Profile Image for The Contented .
620 reviews10 followers
May 14, 2023
Normally I would enjoy any book on monetary policy, but I found this book to be very poorly structured, jumping around in time, pushing an Elizabeth Taylor-Richard Burton analogy too far (when it would have been far simpler to just talk directly about the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy - the points would have been more easily grasped).

Some valuable points on MPC decision making at times of uncertainty- but all the really valuable insights in this book (& there are many) get drowned out by it’s less than optimal structure.

A shame, because nothing is more topical than inflation at this point in time. But this book was poorly served by its structure.

I recently completed ‘The Lords of Easy Money’ - The differences in chronology and structure were telling.

I would still recommend that everyone reads this - too little gets written on the subject. But be prepared for those tiny frictions that could have been avoided, had more care been taken over the structure of the book. I would have edited it differently.
Profile Image for Richard Marney.
739 reviews45 followers
March 9, 2025
An easy and useful read for non-economists. The professional benefits as well in learning how to communicate complex topics in simple and straightforward prose.
31 reviews
August 1, 2023
Why is inflation such a bad thing? Many people conflate inflation with the cost of living and are hostile to it because of the effect a rising price level. Germany famously suffered a terrible hyperinflation in 1922–1923, with a monthly inflation rate of 322 percent. Yet, remarkably, German real incomes per capita fell only 7.8 percent between 1918 and 1923, considerably less of a decline than seen in the United Kingdom over the same period. In other words, even though prices were shooting up, so were nominal incomes—at least across the economy in aggregate. The major costs of large bouts of inflation are not that they make us worse off, though for many people they undoubtedly do. No, the three biggest costs of high inflation are:
- it makes economic planning incredibly difficult, causing people to invest time in thinking about inflation to the detriment of more productive activities (Germany: buying two beers at the same time; Turkey: hoarding washing machines),
- it leads to extreme redistributions of wealth that are rightly perceived as arbitrary and unfair, and
- it leads to bad policy responses that can make the economy less efficient still.

He asked in 2023 whether the price‐​depressing effects of globalization in the past had flattered central banks’ actual inflation‐​fighting record and foresaw that some of those benefits of globalization were about to unwind, putting upward pressure on prices. Next, he took seriously what he was hearing about how the pandemic could scar economies’ potential to produce goods and services, reducing our economic capacity. Third, he saw that the combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the pandemic had been huge—meaning that there were very few bank failures and bankruptcies—while unemployment had quickly returned to low levels. And, finally, he began to think that central bankers were guilty of hubris, believing that they’d obviously keep inflation in check because the public would believe they’d keep inflation in check owing to the banks’ 2010s record.

Stephen Kind suggests four tests to determine whether inflation is persistent (these are, arguably, retrofitted):
1. Have there been institutional changes suggesting an increased bias in favour of inflation? King argues that central banks’ bias against deflation during the past decade may have created a bias in favour of inflation. Quantitative easing also removed an early indicator of inflation.

2. Are there signs of monetary excess that indicate heightened inflationary risk? Here, King points to the rate of US monetary expansion during the pandemic.

3. Third, are inflationary risks trivialised or excused? It took 2.5 years for the annual rate of UK inflation to rise from 0.3 per cent to 10 per cent: yet, throughout that period, the Bank of England persistently forecast that inflation would return to the 2 per cent target within two years.

4. Have supply conditions changed for the worse? The supply chain problems of the pandemic may be receding, but trade barriers — often mis-sold as greater national resilience — remain on the increase. And whatever the benefits of Brexit in terms of “taking back control”

A counterargument is: Not all would agree. The extra QE since 2020 was for many the only way to ensure that fiscal support to the economy when Covid threatened a new Great Depression could be provided quickly and cheaply. Did it go on for too long? Maybe. We are now seeing inflation drop worldwide though the distributional and cost of living implications of what has taken place so far are clear to see. These developments will leave scars for a while to come. Will the damage be permanent? This remains to be seen.
Profile Image for David.
725 reviews15 followers
June 14, 2023
A very relevant book to understand the current global inflationary surge.

Building on the history of inflation and its relationship with money, the author looks at the temptation of printing money, how inflation has undemocratic effects and why it is so difficult to reduce.

The author proposes 4 tests to determine the seriousness of inflationary risk:
i. have there been any institutional changes suggesting an increased bias in favour of inflation?
ii. have there been signs of monetary excess sufficient to indicate a heightened inflationary risk?
iii. is there evidence to suggest that a rising inflationary risk is being trivialised, notably through ‘time machine’ or ‘external shock’ arguments?
iv. have supply-side conditions changed for the worse?

In the final chapter, he looks at possible solutions including institutional constraints while offering the following 14 lessons:
1. Money Matters
2. Public attitudes matter as much as central bank policies
3. Those who believe inflation has been permanently tamed ignore history
4. Governments can and will resort to inflation
5. Institutional reforms in a world of deflationary risk can lead to an inadvertent bias in favour of inflation
6. Democratically elected governments cannot help but be tempted by inflation
7. Once established, inflation is a deeply unfair and undemocratic process
8. Protecting people’s incomes and wealth in the light of price shocks may be politically necessary, but such actions rarely solve an inflation problem
9. Hyperinflations, ironically, may be easier to reduce than ‘modest’ inflations
10. A ‘rules-based’ policy framework is important: the public need to know how policymakers are likely to respond
11. There must be monetary dominance over fiscal policy, not the reverse: the government should not be in the business of ‘printing money’ to fund its borrowing
12. ‘Rules of thumb’ are more important than expectations
13. Policymakers are not easily able to distinguish inflationary squalls from periods of inflationary persistence
14. All central banks should use the ‘four tests’ to judge whether, on balance, inflation is in danger of becoming a persistent problem
Profile Image for Thomas Ray.
1,486 reviews507 followers
June 2, 2025
We Need to Talk about Inflation, Stephen D. King, 2023, 212 pages, ISBN 9780300270471, Dewey 332.41

The author is a Brit.

There's no price shown on the book jacket: maybe the publisher was afraid it would change quickly. U.S. inflation was 9% in the early 2020s.

ERRATA

p. xvi. "2021 inflation rates not seen since the 1970s" should say, "since the early 1980s." https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=...

p. 6. Repeats the lie about the invisible hand, that if only we each grab for all we can, everybody's better off. Lauds Adam Smith for writing it. Rides the efficient-pricing horse though he admits it rests on implausible assumptions.

p. 9. Claims robber-baron-level wealth accumulation is "tolerable," specifically of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. No. Musk is using it to destroy the U.S. government. Bezos is using it to demand serflike conditions of his employees. A tycoon's profit is at the cost of his employees, customers, government, and the environment. That hoarded wealth, had it been permitted to stay with those it was extracted from, could have made life better for all of us. Extreme wealth concentration makes democracy impossible. And when too much money is held by people who don't need to spend, the economy collapses.

p. 15. "There wasn't much inflation before the 1929 crash." No, there wasn't much /consumer price/ inflation then. The stock prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average inflated by a factor of 5 from 1921 to 1929. https://www.federalreservehistory.org...

pp. 46-47. His table, "what £1 was worth 100 years later," is backward. He says 1 pound in 1900 was worth only 2 pence in 2000. No. It would take far /more/ 2000-era pounds to buy what 1 pound bought in 1900.

COMMODITIES

During rapid inflation, people who can afford to do so hoard /things/ (not money): merchants hold their wares to sell later at a higher price. pp. 4-5.

BORROWERS WIN

Borrowers win during inflation. p. 9. Governments can deplete their citizens' wealth by inflation [except of those wealthy enough to put it in commodities]. pp. 10-12.




24 reviews
June 24, 2024
I thought this was a helpful and insightful introduction on how to think about inflation, and it gave me some good insights I definitely would not have had without reading it. I’m definitely going to keep King’s insights in mind going forward, however two major issues I had were:
1. The ‘Burton-Taylor’ analogy King was trying to make a thing kept on confusing me about what he was actually referring to a - the negative interaction between fiscal and monetary policy (and it happened a lot).
2. I feel his prescriptive 4 Tests are a bit lacking. Particularly Tests 1 and 3 are both very subjective, and I can see well meaning folks completely disagree about the fundamentals behind the tests. E.g. for Test 1, which deals with whether policy is biased towards inflation, I feel that you can have folks arguing (from a political perspective or not) what policies actually matter and whether one outweighs the other. In effect, it creates an argument over policy that can only be solved ex post.

Overall a good book for insights and perspective on inflation that I would recommend those interested in economists picking up. However it has some writing style and prescriptive short comings that I think lead the book to struggle more than it otherwise would. It is, however, a great length. 180 pages is the right length for this content.
Profile Image for Monica Neill.
16 reviews
March 8, 2025
Took me ages to get through this relatively small book due to the factual and academic nature of the writing (there are a couple graphs and formulations in certain sections). There is nothing new to learn here if you're already clued into matters of politics and economics or a consumer of Richard J. Murphy, Gary's Economics or Ray Dalio's books/content so most of the conclusions were things I already knew which made me want to rate it lower, but rated this 3 stars because if it was the first book I ever picked up to do with economics it would've been enlightening and a really, really good summary of a complex topic.

In summary, inflation targets are stupid and deflation can and often is positive. I did enjoy reading about specific examples throughout history though (Amazed by Brazils past experience with 200% inflation rate, and Roman era and french revolution was interesting). It was also interesting to hear a negative take on the Gold Standard as I would have always felt a stronger negative towards Fiat!
62 reviews
June 16, 2025
“Other things being equal, a big increase in government borrowing, funded by monetary expansion that in turn leads to higher inflation, will: (i) rob savers, by depressing real interest rates (the equivalent of a tax on wealth held in the form of cash) (ii) rob consumers by forcing the exchange rate lower and by raising import prices (the equivalent of an increase in VAT on imported goods) or by forcing prices higher relative to wages (as happens during wartime, when scarce resources have to be diverted to military imperatives); and (iii) rob the poor, whose meager savings are more likely to be in cash than in inflation, protected assets, and who are less likely to be able to negotiate effective protection against rising inflationary pressures. Others, including those with mortgages, those with pricing power (large companies, unionize workers) and, of course, those responsible for looking after a government‘s finances, may do well. The process is, however, both stealthy and profoundly and undemocratic.”
242 reviews
September 29, 2025
Cuts through political rhetoric, economics textbooks, and gets to the real lived experience of populations throughout history. Inflation is something that is rarely well understood, scarcely mentioned outside footnotes (in arrogant first world countries which think they have moved on from such trivial issues), and is seen as dull.

The real, and very dangerous, nature of inflation is tackled here from multiple sides, from a diverse range of viewpoints, and the reader cannot help but leave far better informed.

I dock a star for the prospective reader who may find that approaching this read with zero initial knowledge a daunting prospect; the jargon is neither dense nor inaccessible, but a slightly more considered approach could have left it readable for all. A minor criticism.

Enjoyable and highly informative.
Profile Image for Harrison Large.
230 reviews7 followers
June 24, 2024
Found this in the library search function when I was looking for the novelist Stephen King (who you've probably seen me reading lately).

This is a modern (Jan 2023) look at the economic crisis facing us in the West. I feel that King did an expert job explaining the situation and the outlook, and history seems to be steering in the direction he said it would.

My big disappointment is the lack of focus on previous eras. Yeah, I get it. We don't have expert data on roman economics. But still feel like a trick was missed. I was expecting more of a "23 Things Capitalism doesn't tell you" type book, but this was serviceable.

Worth reading if you have the knowledge background for it.
Profile Image for Andrew Carr.
481 reviews120 followers
December 30, 2023
A good overview of an important topic. I'd have liked a little more theory to establish what inflation is. The author instead focuses on teasing out economic insights from 20th century political history (there's a few Roman references to justify the 2,000 years subtitle), and some general observations of the challenges diagnosing and responding to the 2021-2023 inflation squall (the book was finished in Jan 2023).


129 reviews1 follower
October 17, 2023
Fairly pedestrian in terms of the economics, not aided by the prose (he loves an overwrought analogy). However I think I would have enjoyed it fine if I had read the book, but the narrator of the Audible version was terrible. He EMPHASISED every OTHER word in such a bizarre nasal tone, it made it very difficult to actually understand what he was saying. Do not listen to this book.
437 reviews2 followers
August 21, 2023
Well researched and well written, as per the author's other books, this was a timely reminder of one of the major challenges facing society today.

Rated as 3 stars based on my enjoyment reading it rather than as any criticism of the author's time and effort in crafting this book.
Profile Image for Gayle Parker.
891 reviews2 followers
September 24, 2023
What a disappointment! This not a book that teaches or explains inflation to you. You need to have a degree in economics to understand this book; and as I don't, I read the first chapter and then sent the book back.
18 reviews1 follower
January 9, 2025
We do indeed need to talk about inflation, but this was not the most engrossing read for me. I didn't finish it because I found it too scattered. Some worthwhile insights, but overall not much will stick, I'm afraid. Stick to writing horror, Stephen King.
Profile Image for Christy.
807 reviews
June 22, 2023
Excellent book! I would have to read this again to be able to catch more of this. The author is incredibly intelligent.
51 reviews
July 5, 2023
Factual and well-balanced exposition by HSBC's former chief economist.
Profile Image for Adam.
258 reviews13 followers
July 19, 2023
Finally I understand inflation. Sort of. Just don't quiz me on it.
246 reviews1 follower
September 9, 2023
I did my best but honestly I did not get what I wanted: understand the concept. Maybe it is just me, but I found the explanations hard to fully assimilate
151 reviews
September 17, 2023
It was pretty good, didn't love it, didn't hate it, and pretty short. Some good looks through history.
Profile Image for Nwaf.
182 reviews74 followers
July 19, 2025
كتاب يضم مواضيع حول السياسة والتاريخ والاقتصاد فيما يتعلق بالتضخم بالإضافة إلى للآلية حول كيفية التعامل مع التضخم من وجهة نظر الاستثمارية .
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