Safe as Houses?: A Historical Analysis of Property Prices

by Neil Monnery

There can be few everyday financial issues more important than the price of houses. Whether we own one and worry about its value or aspire to own one and are frustrated by their high prices, nobody can avoid the issue. In the UK, while prices have fluctuated during our lifetimes, overall they have risen steadily and sometimes spectacularly. The accepted wisdom is that houses are a safe and excellent investment for the long term. But are they really as good an investment as we believe? Might the future be different from the past? Are houses really so safe? This book looks at house prices over the long term in several countries -- including the UK, the US, France, Holland, Norway, Germany and Australia -- to find out what has happened to house prices and why. The author illustrates his findings with authoritative data on trends and provides intriguing details including a century-long index of UK house prices, an analysis of the value of the White House and a fascinating four-hundred-year story of houses in Amsterdam. - To what extent are we right to view our houses as an investment as well as a home?- If prices can rise for decades and then fall for more than a whole generation, then what does the future hold? - If prices rise further, will houses become unaffordable for many young people? How will that affect our society? - If they crash, will that endanger our banks once more? - Are politicians, policymakers and regulators prepared for the true range of possibilities? Anybody who owns a house, wants to own a house or follows the prices and economics of housing will find this book an accessible, fascinating and door-opening read. Neil Monnery studied at Oxford and Harvard Business School. He worked for many years at The Boston Consulting Group as a Director and Senior Vice President and is now active in business, investing and research.

220 pages, Paperback

First published October 3, 2011

Reviews

[Otto Jacobsson · Rating 4 out of 5]

A brief overview of house price developments in the U.K. and around the world. Recommended to anyone interested in residential property/real estate and economic history. Not very detailed as it tries to get a sense of whether the development in the U.K. compared to other countries is unique, which it seems it is. I would have appreciated a bit more of a discussion of why the U.K. is unique and what the drivers might be. I think that not distinguishing London from the rest of the U.K. is a mistake. For example there’s no discussion of international capital flows into London.

[Dave · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book. Having baby boomer parents, a brother with a buy to let property and myself having had to move back in with my parents at 29 years of age to enable me to save more, the subject of housing is much discussed in our family.

I was left with a profound feeling that made me sick in my stomach as to how our society got so greedy, the detrimental effects high house prices have had on us all, and how painful the next few years will be if we get a hard landing, or the lost decades if we opt for a soft landing.

This book completely rips apart our false beliefs that high house prices are a good thing, and that house prices only ever go up.

I recommend everyone in the uk read this book and reassess their outlook on housing in our society.

[Brishen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Safe as Houses is a survey of housing prices extending back 100 to 800 years depending on the country. The author clearly explains how the information was collected and presents both in real and nominal terms which is not something that one tends to see in most publications. There are clear explanations for the specific volatility in prices where they are understood.

The best collection of housing price data that I've seen so far.