浪潮之巅

浪潮之巅 #1-2

by 吴军

近一百多年来，总有一些公司很幸运地、有意识或无意识地站在技术
革命的浪尖之上。在长达十年甚至几十年的时间里，它们代表着科技的浪
潮，直到下一波浪潮的来临。从19世纪末算起，AT&T公司、IBM公司、苹果
公司、英特尔公司、微软公司、思科公司、雅虎公司和Google公司都先后
被幸运地推到了浪尖。虽然，它们来自不同的领域，中间有些已经衰落或
正在衰落，但是它们都极度辉煌过。吴军的这本《浪潮之巅》系统地介绍
了这些公司成功的本质原因及科技工业一百多年的发展。在这些公司兴衰
的背后，有着它必然的规律。《浪潮之巅》不仅讲述科技工业的历史，更
重在揭示它的规律性。

Genres: China, Science, Business, Technology, Computer Science

549 pages, Paperback

First published August 1, 2011

About the author

吴军
also Jun Wu


吴军，著名学者，投资人，人工智能、语音识别和互联网搜索专家。毕业于清华大学和美国约翰·霍普金斯大学，现任丰元资本创始合伙人、上海交通大学客座教授、约翰·霍普金斯大学工学院董事等职。 吴军博士曾作为资深研究员和副总裁分别任职于Google公司和腾讯公司。在Google公司，他和同事一同开创了搜索反作弊研究领域，成立了中、日、韩文产品部门，设计了Google中、日、韩文搜索算法，领导了Google自然语言分析器、自动问答等研究型项目。在腾讯公司，他负责了搜索、搜索广告和街景地图等项目。作为风险投资人，他成功地投资了数十家硅谷和中国的高科技企业。 吴军博士著有《数学之美》《浪潮之巅》《大学之路》《文明之光》《硅谷之谜》和《智能时代》《见识》《态度》《具体生活》等多部畅销图书，并多次获得包括文津奖、中国好书奖、中华优秀出版物在内的国家级图书大奖。

Jun Wu was a staff research scientist in Google who invented Google’s Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Web Search Algorithms and was responsible for many Google machine learning projects. He wrote official blogs introducing Google technologies behind its products in very simple languages for Chinese internet users from 2006-2010. The blogs had more than two million followers. He received Ph.D. in computer science from the Johns Hopkins University and had been working on speech recognition and natural language processing for more than 20 years. He was one of the earliest engineers of Google, managed many products of the company, and was awarded more than ten US patents during his ten-year tenure there. He became a full-time VC investor and co-founded Amino Capital in Palo Alto in 2014 and is the author of eight books.

Reviews

[Barack Liu · Rating 4 out of 5]

058-On Top of Tides-Jun Wu-Technology-2011
Barack

—— "Stay hungry. Stay foolish."

"On Top of Tides", first published in 2011. A technology book. It reflects the development of computer technology in the industrial field by introducing the rise and fall of some milestone technology companies in the history of computer development in the past 100 years.

Wu Jun was born in Beijing in 1967. He studied at Tsinghua University and Johns Hopkins University. In 2007, he began to use his spare time to serialize articles in the Google Blackboard and finally compiled them into books. Representative works: "Top of the Wave", "The Beauty of Mathematics", "Insight", "Smart Times", "Light of Civilization", etc.

In the IT era in 2000, the setting sun leaked through the transparent glass windows on the concrete, and half part of the body of Bill Gates was shrouded in the golden oblique light. The embroidered gold purple robe on his body reflected the dazzling light. Gates the Great, like a solemn god, wrapped himself in a deterring atmosphere created by himself.

"Given the overwhelming force of the Microsoft Empire, it has caused a huge hidden danger to the security of other legitimate empires of the Microcomputer Continent. On behalf of the Microcomputer Continental Senate, I would like to make the following ruling: Split the Microsoft Empire into the Eastern Empire and the West Empire, while reducing the number of legions from 50,000 to 25,000. Do you accept Bill Gates I? "

Gates Emperor stood up slowly and firmly, and replied in his usual calm tone, "Yes, I accept." He knew that the news would make his enemies toast.

Nineteen years ago, in the IT era of 1981, Gates was still a captain who led 32 riders, and this continent in need of reclamation already had several rulers. To the north of Microsoft, the empire is the Apple empire led by General Steve Jobs. General Jobs is ambitiously planning to command his army to occupy the entire computer continent, and now the development of facts seems to be moving step by step in this direction.

This year, the two commanders are 26 years old. The east of the Microsoft Empire is the old empire IBM located on the mechanical continent. It has occupied more than 90% of the land of the mechanical continent. No matter the number of troops or the financial power of the empire, no empire in the world can compete. It seems that it also has a lot of interest in the virgin land of the computer continent.

It is a pity that Gates and Jobs were born in the same era because the two of them are destined to have one person as a loser because there can only be one overlord on a continent at a time. In training the army, Jobs is better than Gates, but in strategic deployment and governance of the country, Gates is stronger than Jobs.

At this time, General Jobs invited Captain Gates to practice for a small army of his new army, which used firearms instead of traditional swords and halberds. The biggest correctness of General Jobs is that he deeply recognized the power of firearms to change the world, but his biggest mistake is that he underestimated the humble captain in front of him. The young man will lead his Microsoft empire to almost destroy the Apple empire.

Gates accepted Jobs ’s mission, but after returning to his empire, he did everything he could to delay the training of the new army and started to build his own firearms unit. He also saw the terrifying potential of firearms. Gates was slowly and quietly carrying out his plan, which took him and his empire a full nine years.

Originally, General Jobs had many opportunities in these nine years to easily destroy the Microsoft empire, but he did not, and it was permanent, or, for a long time, lost this ability. Because, in the IT era in 1990, Microsoft's own firearms corps was formally born. Before it, Gates tentatively announced his two firearms troops to the world, so that other empires eyeing him might underestimate his true military strength.

In this mixed station of competing for computer continents, the Apple empire grabs the ground, while the Microsoft empire first builds momentum and then breaks the air. As a result, the benefits of the former are quick to catch, while the latter are well-planned, and eventually leapfrogged into the overlord.

When Gates led his empire to accumulate strength step by step according to the predetermined blueprint, political turmoil appeared in the Apple empire led by his biggest opponent, General Jobs. In the mid-1980s, the founders of the empire, General Jobs, and Marshal Scully created a gap, and the members were divided into two tit-for-tat groups, arguing with each other. This party dispute ended with Marshal Scali's coup, seizing power, and eventually exiled General Jobs.

It was also during this period that the Firearms Corps, which had just been made public by the Microsoft Empire, was on the computer continent, siege and ravages, and defeated the Firearms Corps originally stationed in the Apple Empire on the frontal battlefield. The saddest thing is that the latter couldn't even organize an effective counterattack and collapsed.

Gates Emperor finally won the dominance of the computer continent through the 10-year People's War. After defeating the biggest opponent, the remaining decade is the decade of the rapid expansion of the Microsoft empire, known historically as the "Golden Decade."

During this period, it defeated the Lotus Empire in the northwest, the WordPerfect Empire in the south, and the growing Netscape Empire through three effective battles. At the end of the IT era in 1997, the number of troops in the Microsoft Empire exceeded the IBM Empire in the mechanical continent for the first time.

Microsoft's battle against Netscape was a life-and-death battle between the two sides competing for the fortress Browser from the computer continent to the network continent. In this war full of smoke, Gates, as the commander of Microsoft, showed superhuman courage and conducting art. This war has had a profound impact on the future man's entry into the Internet continent.

In this thrilling battle, in order not to lose the superiority of the empire, Gates Emperor used some unconventional means of warfare, which attracted the attention of the Senate and openly violated the agreement he signed with the Senate in 1994. Non-aggression treaties between other empires living in peace.

The Senate convened the heads of the various empires to discuss the sanctions against the Microsoft Empire in 1997. At the international conference was Marshal Jim Barksdale of the Netscape Empire, General Scott McNeely of the Sun Empire, and the executive officer of the Dell Empire.

Even though almost all the influential empire capitals of the computer continent expressed their indignation against the Microsoft empire, this meeting did not change the tragic fate of the Netscape empire's demise soon after. Since then, the RealNetworks empire has been doomed in the same way.

Perhaps recognizing the frightening news of their true enemies, the Apple Empire re-received their founder, General Jobs, in the IT era in 1997. Since then, Apple has begun a difficult journey against Microsoft under the protection of IBM.

At the same time, in some remote areas where Microsoft's control power is difficult to reach, the Sun Empire, IBM Empire, Hewlett-Packard Empire, and AT & T Empire still have real control.

After the computer continent had a firm foothold, Microsoft was unexpectedly encountered by the emerging Yahoo empire when it was marching into the Internet continent via Browser Fortress, which made it difficult for the former to enter the network continent. Although Microsoft eventually defeated Yahoo, in the war with Yahoo, it missed the best time to occupy the Internet continent and made the appearance of his most powerful opponent in history possible.

Today, the Google empire, which has been invincible on the Internet continent, is probably the most terrifying empire ever seen in human history so far, and it is increasingly challenging the authority of the Microsoft empire. It suppresses Microsoft's living space step by step and continuously launches some provocative actions in the border areas.

In the IT era of 2011, the 11th year of the sanctions imposed by the Senate, the Microsoft Empire, which was poor in technology, submitted a formal application to the Senate for sanctions against the Google Empire. After the Google empire, the Facebook empire is also rising.

This is an era of adventurers. It is an era that requires commanders and also gives birth to commanders. Any warrior full of fighting passion can enter this torrent and join the melee in various countries. At the cost of blood and fire, to create your legend, or become the footnote of the times.

For a company, the more it is at the top, the more vigilant it is. Because the possibility of going downhill at this time is greater than going uphill. This is also true for individuals. When the spring breeze is proud, it is the easiest to plant the seeds of the future bane.

Although the future is unpredictable and a large number of black swan events are emerging, we should try to figure out the general direction of future trends as much as possible.

There are also some giants in China with such potential. But they still need more time to get verified.

When the basic material and spiritual needs are met, people will have a further desire for eternal life. Modern science has made us gradually abandon the idea to live forever. So, we turned to seek spiritual eternal life. Some people create through art, some through political achievements. Some people contribute through academics.

I am interested in extending life through founding a company. The company I founded will inevitably carry my deep personal brand and reflect my will to a certain extent. Then when my body is destroyed, the company can still survive for a while. When the company is destroyed, if my company has played a positive role in human history, it will also enable him to live longer in people's memories.

If we stand in the future and look at the past. The choice may be self-evident. But if we are at the crossroads of history. Ask yourself, what choice do we make? What motivates us to make such a choice? Can we make the right choice?

I noticed that American companies have many laboratories named after founders or important people, such as Bell Laboratories, Shannon Laboratories, and Watson Laboratories. But companies in our country seem to be avoiding this. I don't see any Ma Huateng laboratory, Ma Yun laboratory, or Ren Zhengfei laboratory.

From the cooperation between Microsoft and Intel, more precisely, the collaborators with Microsoft have no good results. If the two sides are complementary, Microsoft seems to be a good choice.

The top strategy is similar to what Jack Welch does at GE. He also abolished all departments that could not achieve the best in the industry and chose to concentrate on major affairs.

The more you are at the pinnacle of life, the more you must be alert to potential risks. And in the low point of life, it seems that there are not so many taboos. As long as you do not stop at the same place and insist on walking in a certain direction, it seems that you always go higher and higher.

If a person can start a great company, usually he can also start a second company. The real powerhouse is the one who can return to glory from the trough.

I can understand this feeling very well. If I work for a company I founded, I would be very willing, even if I don't get one cent.

One reason I think is important is that the IT industry mainly involves virtual goods. It is not subject to physical restrictions. So, its marginal cost can almost go to zero. But it will be difficult for other companies with physical products as their main products. As for the financial company, it does not generate new value itself, but more is the scheduling of existing resources, so its growth rate is limited by the existing industry scale. For the IT industry, at least for now, there is currently no obvious upper limit.

This reflects the difference between continuous innovation and disruptive innovation. On the track with clear game rules, large companies have obvious advantages and clear barriers, and it is difficult for small companies to challenge their status. On virgin land, large companies usually don't invest a lot of resources at once, so that small company can run faster and bigger.

16/02/20
20/05/21

[Hector Hu · Rating 5 out of 5]

增加了对IT界各巨头的了解，了解了各巨头是如何兴盛起来的，某些企业是如何保持兴盛，而某些企业优势如何失败的，某些企业是如何从兴盛走向失败的。

[Qifeng Zhou · Rating 5 out of 5]

眼界，思考，学习能力，不断进取，勤奋以及对成功的强烈渴求。本书可以给你一点眼界，谢谢吴军！

[Jeffrey · Rating 5 out of 5]

重读了部分章节，有以下几点思考。

**甲骨文为什么能够战胜IBM？**
20世纪60年代末的IBM如日中天，市值占美国GDP的3%。为什么甲骨文能够抓住机会，在数据库市场战胜IBM，成为世界第二大软件公司？在20世纪70年代，IBM的计算机科学家科德发表了第一篇关系式数据库的论文，这是一篇革命性的论文，奠定了当代数据库的基础。为什么IBM先发明了这项技术，却错失了抢占市场的先机，给艾利森抓住了机会？

首先IBM并不重视这项技术，因为当时IBM的自身主打的数据库产品“System R”性能已经足够好，有很多客户在使用。重新研发一个新的系统相当于革了自己的命，风险极大。艾利森看到了这项技术的前景，敢于孤注一掷，投下重注，最终抢占了先机。更重要的是，新的技术带来了商业模式的革新。IBM的商业模式还停留在硬件为主，软件和服务为辅的阶段，靠打包硬件与软件获利。而甲骨文只靠卖通用型软件生存，与硬件完全解绑。可以说，IBM那时是一个硬件公司，抢占的是硬件公司的市场，而甲骨文是软件公司，攻占的是软件公司的市场。IBM没有想到的是，软件市场竟然规模这么大，增长这么快，很快就超���了硬件市场。

由此可见，创业公司要如何战胜大公司？首先，时机很重要。新的技术革新会深刻地改变市场的竞争格局，新的市场环境将会被确立。在新的市场环境下，创业公司因为灵活性获得了先发者优势，通常可以抢占先机。新技术孕育了新的机会，但是这个机会对于创业公司和大公司都是均等的。大公司因为其人才优势，对新技术的掌握程度一定不比创业公司弱。决定战争胜负的，是公司对新技术的理解程度。大公司的视角比较传统，对待新技术，通常会思考新技术如何贴合公司的主营业务，为主营业务赋能。新技术的战略定位处在一个辅助的定位。小公司没有历史包袱，视角更加新锐，更加开阔。因此能够看到大公司看不到的市场，能采用大公司不会采用的商业模式。

**Web2.0是技术革命还是概念炒作？**
由上可以看到，技术革命能够催生出全新的机会，为创业公司的诞生提供土壤。因此，如何判断与识别技术革命尤为重要。本书第三版写于2010年，正是web2.0概念的火热之时。web2.0到底是新的技术革命还是炒作？作者对web2.0进行了分析与判断，对这一问题提出了他的解答。

要了解web2.0，首先要了解互联网的历史，知道什么是web1.0。在互联网早期，网民主要通过门户网站跟互联网进行交互。门户网站拥有内容的提供权与选择权，网民只是被动的接受门户网站的内容。网民没有办法通过互联网向社会提供信息和服务。网民唯一发声的方式是通过自己创办网站，但是这个过程非常繁琐，只能满足极少数人的需求。

web2.0的将互联网的发声权从少数门户网站转向广大网民。web2.0的核心特征是中心化的内容平台。一家公司创建一个平台，接受并管理用户提交的内容，用户提交的内容是平台服务的主体。web2.0的公司不自己生产内容，内容的生产者web2.0平台上的用户。web2.0的典型代表有Facebook，Twitter和Youtube。

所以，web2.0是革命还是泡沫？首先单纯从技术角度上讲，web2.0并没有任何的技术创新。web2.0更多地是一次技术进化而非革命。从商业模式上看，web2.0的核心商业模式也是通过广告变现，与web1.0的平台一致。但是，依靠着数据的积累与推荐算法的进步，web2.0的广告变现更加精准化，提升了广告变现的毛利率。因此，从技术与商业模式上来讲，web2.0并不是一场从0到1的革命，而是从1到10的一次进化。技术的进化带来了效率的提升，催生了新的创业公司。从生产关系的角度上讲，web2.0将广大网民从的角色从消费者转变成了生产者，催生了新的互联网生态。因此，web2.0生产力的进化，生产关系的革命。

**金融危机与创业**
为了应对金融危机，各国政府会采取大规模量化宽松的手段，为社会注入流动性。流动性过剩为新的泡沫埋下了伏笔，政府需要投资新的产业来推动实体经济的增长，防止经济脱实向虚。因此，金融危机通常预示着新产业的出现。新产业的出现给创业公司提供了生长的土壤，为创业者与投资人带来了新的机会。因此，金融危机过后的几年将是创业的好时机。

[Donowan · Rating 3 out of 5]

云服务、人工智能等似乎清晰地描绘了未来的风口，而今年早已提前布局的英伟达成为了最大赢家，摩尔定律也很难再适用于GPU。科技产业是如此之“卷”，却同时在不断倒逼自己更新迭代。本书即使已经更新到第四版，传统出版业也永远不能实时报道前沿科技的最新成果，所以其意义是站在后人的角度了解这些大企业的兴衰存亡，并形成自己对未来的判断，如有幸能参与他们的游戏。大国比拼的是科技创新能力，而创新又得有社会的相应配套设施。卷的恶意竞争很难创造优质产品，只靠抄袭模仿永远只能甘居人后。中国在科技行业是可以与美国竞争的，但是呢…

[Julie · Rating 5 out of 5]

目前看過對IT行業最全面最深入的介紹，作者有著深厚的學術背景及豐富的工作經驗，通篇讀起來特別流暢，也時常加入自己的見解，而不流於單純的科技行業發展介紹，讓人越讀越起勁，並且對這個產業有更多的認識。

[Sun Bowen · Rating 5 out of 5]

很厉害，预测基本都成真。逻辑脉络清晰，文字朴实但是非常生动，常常会心一笑。

[lE0P9n · Rating 3 out of 5]

empty

[Changye Li · Rating 5 out of 5]

科技进步真快啊

[Zhou Justin · Rating 3 out of 5]

如果想了解数字世界的发展，获得数字世界的各种逻辑，是一本很不错的基础书，是梳理得很好的历史书，同时对一些公司发展的评价偶有精辟的论述。

[GeekPlux · Rating 4 out of 5]

2019 年再看，里面的有的预言已经实现，不过大部分现在的创新是当时没有想到的。当时的巨头，现在有的已成了瘦死的骆驼，而现今的巨头或很多独角兽都是移动互联网下的产物。不过要想占领市场，必须成为入口级的平台，这个是没有变的。

[Sichen Jin · Rating 4 out of 5]

互联网商业入门故事

[moccasin · Rating 4 out of 5]

不深入地介绍了一些公司的潮起潮落，不少之前都有耳闻。当入门科普读物还行，读一半之后只能感慨世道变得快

[Joanna · Rating 2 out of 5]

作为背景资料读读还行，但是作者一些非常狗屎的比喻，极力吹捧自己就读和工作过的斯坦福与google，在一些细小的点上以客观事实的描述方法来写自己的观点，对于有争议的转折点刻意淡化，看到下半本味道越来越重，就很鸡贼

[William WEi · Rating 4 out of 5]

吴军在本书中提到的两个观点让人印象深刻。一个是：一家公司的基因常常决定它今后的命运。第二个是：一家公司的市场占有率超过50%后,就无法再翻番了。这几乎是任何人都懂的大白话,却道出了许多跨国公司兴衰的根源。《浪潮之巅》看懂信息产业发展规律，把握时代科技发展趋势，IT人非读不可，非IT人也应该阅读的，了解科技产业的经典著作。87万字，阅读难度两颗星，推荐指数8.1+。

[Alexander Song · Rating 5 out of 5]

对于一个沉迷于计算机技术的人来说，这本书真迷人。

[Jiro]

今日重读第二版，带来的激动依然。

[Heng Wang · Rating 4 out of 5]

从”得到“App上听书解读听完的，貌似原书有大量的IT，互联网历史的故事

[Frank · Rating 5 out of 5]

https://book.douban.com/subject/6709783/

[Liang TianCheng · Rating 5 out of 5]

智识的力量

[Ma Ronnie · Rating 3 out of 5]

History of IT & Computer industry to me

[Sile Li · Rating 4 out of 5]

对各大IT巨头的商业史有了初步的了解。当今生活的点点滴滴都被这些公司们影响着改变着。应该多了解一点。最后一章展望谁会是下一个Google。电子商务可能可以成为下一个千亿美元的公司，但不要让消费主导了你的生活。

[Xingjian Zhang · Rating 5 out of 5]

坐地铁上下班看的。不愧是爱思考勤读书的业内人士之作，引人入胜爱不释手。捋一遍IT近代史，关于商业模式的讨论非常受益，公司基因论的框架也很在理。佩服向吴军老师这样业精于勤，思而不罔，学而不怠的人。研究美国IT行业的研究员启蒙读物

[XIANGWEN CHEN · Rating 5 out of 5]

A history of Bay Area

[Lawrence Chen · Rating 5 out of 5]

相当出色的一本书，改变了我对西部的看法，一直以来都觉得东部以wharton，Fox带头的企业派加上哈佛斯隆的运营派合流，西部UCB和斯坦福类的不过是搞产品的武夫。然而浪潮之巅让我看到西部的人也很会管理，拥有毫不弱于东部的LR vision，吴军在书中的多数揣测都实现了，作为一本2007发布的东西，真的是令人感到震撼（100x的以太网，摩托罗拉被中资企业收购。）他的个人观点，唯有一点不赞同，确实历史的滚滚车轮没人可以预备，但是作为管理者，只能上刀山下火海，不能说因为climate change就打退堂鼓，如果业务不行那就改，跟随，超越，而不是来一句历史大势，不悖天命。不过总体而言还是非常好的书