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The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century

From sensor-fuzed munitions and autonomous weapons, to ground moving target indication radar, laser vibrometers and artificial intelligence, the weapons of warfare are undergoing a rapid transformation, with modern technologies reshaping how armies intend to fight in the twenty-first century. The Arms of the Future analyses how the emergence of novel weapons systems is shaping the risks and opportunities on the battlefield. Drawing on extensive practical observation and experimentation, the book unpacks the operational challenges new weapons pose on the battlefield and how armies might be structured to overcome them. At a time when defence spending across NATO is on the rise, and conflict with Russia raises new questions of what it means to fight a truly 'modern' war, Watling examines not just the arms to be employed but how they can be fielded and wielded to survive and prevail in future wars.

258 pages, Hardcover

First published September 7, 2023

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About the author

Jack Watling

9 books14 followers
Dr Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.

Jack is the author of The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty First Century. Jack's PhD examined the evolution of Britain’s policy responses to civil war in the early twentieth century. He has worked extensively with the Ukrainian Armed Forces during Russia's full-scale invasion, across NATO, and in Iraq, Mali, Rwanda, on Yemen and further afield.

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Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews
87 reviews1 follower
April 15, 2024
This book upsets the shouting match between military analysts who claim technology has changed nothing (e.g. Stephen Biddle) and those who insist everything has changed based on high-level conflict comparisons and distant history. Watling gets into the details of how land warfare actually functions in the presence of pervasive sensing, precision munitions, autonomous platforms and dispersed interpenetrated forces. He brings to bear an impressive array of recent data in a short book to argue that although war continues to be human intensive and increasing troop dispersion is a long-term trend, fundamental changes to the structure of the force are required now. He describes an example restructured force in such detail that I wished he had included tables and graphics to help me keep track. Some of his assumptions are controversial such a 54 ton tank weight limit and a lack of close air support. But, all are supported by evidence often collected by the author himself in war zones and training exercises. I hope this book is widely read by Western military policy makers.
Profile Image for Liquidlasagna.
3,295 reviews115 followers
December 29, 2023
This one is unusual that, reviews are wholly dependent upon if you accept the conclusions of the author. His research is painstaking and detailed, but if you don't agree with bits of the premise, or the conclusions, it will fall apart.

So the reviews of this one has gone everywhere from 1 to 5 stars depending on your viewpoint.

A few might think the premiseor two is a turd, or a few of the conclusions are iffy, and for others, he's totally on the right track.

Pretty much, this book won't appeal to everyone, but Futurewar is a tricky subject to tackle.


in some of his writings about recent or current conflicts, i've found him to almost unrealistically optimistic, but I've always appreciated some of the stuff he always brings to the table.

At worst, he'll push for what can be possible, even if you think, it feels like he's always rooting for that 23% that France in 1940 can win the battle.....

Just throw more money at it, oops....

"It can be done, trust me"


.........

Dr. Frank Hoffman is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Imagining the Future of Landpower
Frank Hoffman

There is an ongoing debate in the US military establishment about the changing character of war.

Officially, we acknowledge the need for significant change over continuity, yet very few agree on the details.

Ongoing conflicts raise questions. In particular, just how will the rapid diffusion of low-cost unmanned systems and an array of accurate, lethal top-attack munitions impact warfare and US defense priorities?

How should tomorrow’s landpower adapt to the purported changing character of war. What is now a legacy capability and what are the new priorities shaping US military investments?

A new book, The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century, gets to the heart of that debate, taking a forward-leaning look at these questions and urging adaptation. It races up to and past what a prior article in these pages called “the inflection point between evolutionary and revolutionary adaptation.”

The author’s thesis is clear: despite more than adequate evidence of the need to change how armies fight, they are not modernizing or restructuring their forces properly.

Rather than transform the force coherently, “Armies today are largely seeking to retain tried and tested structures while adding new capabilities onto their platforms.” Bolting new capabilities onto existing platforms, the author contends, is inefficient and adds costs.

The author of this consistently informative and often provocative book is a senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Jack Watling is widely recognized as an international expert in land warfare and has drawn accolades for a series of consistently penetrating monographs and commentaries on the ongoing war in Ukraine.

His latest product is not simply an academic exercise; it is built upon extensive interviews, experimentation reports, direct observation, and interviews from exercises and contemporary wars.

Watling’s design builds from the bottom up, logically tracing from tasks to structure. His ideas are already influencing European military thinking, particularly how the British Army intends to fight—more dispersed and also more lethal.

They are wholly deserving of serious attention by the US defense establishment as we adapt American defense priorities after Ukraine. It’s going to take innovative thinking and creative applications of tactics, techniques, and advanced training to address the action/counteraction dynamics inherent to war.

The book has two major sections. The first lays out the author’s projection of the future operating environment.

In five concise chapters Watling details the transparency of the battlespace, the contested electromagnetic spectrum, the limitations of protection amid rising lethality, the complexity of combat support, and the enduring reality of urban operations. There is little variance with the US Army’s projected operational environment with the exception of TRADOC’s forecast on climate change.

In the chapter dealing with protection and enhanced lethality, Watling’s judgments on the trends and tradeoffs in mobility, firepower, and armored protection were notable and are a significant theme in animating his force design. He argues against slow and evolutionary change:

Today improvements in lethality are improving exponentially. Improvements in protection by contrast have begun to advance logarithmically with smaller gains requiring ever-greater resource to achieve.

This has far-reaching consequences for how militaries think about and design their fighting systems.

The best chapter involves the longstanding problems associated with urban warfare.

While the advantages that Western militaries bring to bear are often negated in urban terrain, there are options and opportunities to succeed in urban battles as shown in detailed studies of US-directed operations against ISIS in Mosul in 2014.

Watling draws on insights from other contemporary conflicts in Narakano-Karabakh, Iraq, and Ukraine. The ongoing battle for Gaza may add a new chapter and force us to recall old but ignored lessons about fighting in cities. The author clearly thinks control of urban nodes is critical.

The second part of The Arms of the Future is devoted to exploring the implications of the projected security environment for force design.

Dr. Watling devotes separate chapters to each component of a modern combined arms system. His task organization is illustrative but not prescriptive. Watling offers an inherently integrated and mutually supported force design with four subsystems.

The first is the maneuver system, which the author tasks with reconnaissance, screening, and counterreconnaissance. The battle group he proposes for screening is comprised of four companies—support (including headquarters), reconnaissance, mechanized infantry and light cavalry.

The second is the fires system, comprised of four components—command and control, target acquisition, lethal fires, and nonlethal fires. For fires, Watling develops a formation with three layers: long-range rocket artillery, cannon, and loitering munitions.

Third is the assault system. Watling frames his design for this component on an urban assault battalion that has three armored assault companies, an engineering company, and a robotic autonomous systems company.

Each assault platoon includes six vehicles—two tanks with smoothbore cannon (fifty-four tons or less) and active protection for kinetic vertical attack and four vehicles with 30- to 60-millimeter cannon for suppression and countering unmanned aerial systems.

Finally, there is the support system. This includes command and control, mobile combat support elements, force/hub protection assets, and electronic warfare and information operations resources.

At first glance, the lack of a system for command and control and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance seemed jarring.

However, the author argues that command is more of an enabling function and tied more to ensuring alignment, sustainment, and coordination.

Here the author embraces some insights from Exeter Professor Anthony King, who argued in Command: The Twenty-First Century General for less directive leadership models and for more distributed and participative decision-making.

The Arms of the Future reinforces King’s argument that command must evolve with changes in the character of conflict.

This topic is the subject of some debate and should be developed further.

The US joint warfighting community is seeking answers to many questions raised in The Arms of the Future.

In particular, the US Army Futures Command and the Marine Corps Force Design are wrestling with the promised potential of disruptive technologies, and the tradeoffs involved in designing tomorrow’s land combat capabilities.

rmy leaders are seeking more transformative efforts rather than merely modernizing.

Separating fact from fiction depends on clear and observable results, either from experimentation or ongoing combat operations, and this is a strength of Watling’s approach.

The Arms of the Future offers a number of conclusions regarding maneuver, armored vehicles, and unmanned systems.

With respect to maneuver, the author rejects the “maneuver is dead” school, but still appreciates the appropriate role of materiel attrition to future success.

Watling argues for a modern combined arms system fit for purpose rather than a heavier package of impressive and exquisite technological wizardry that is laminated onto existing organizational structures and practice.

There is still a clear need for offensive maneuver, as argued by Professor Stephen Biddle, yet the ability to maneuver successfully is going to require rethinking. In that perpetual contest of adaptation in warfare, the combined arms system must continue to evolve.

Watling’s detailed ideas on formations and capabilities are worthy contributions to the debate on contours of that evolution.

With respect to armor, The Arms of the Future is relevant to the ongoing debate about the future of the tank. Watling understands that there is a continued role for mobile, protected lethality on the battlefields of the future.

He agrees that the tank is not dead but appreciates the need to adapt its employment in warfare.

Watling’s arguments align with the respected Israeli scholar, Azar Gat, who has argued for fighting vehicles in the thirty-ton range, with an emphasis on active protection systems over heavy armor and the attendant logistical demands.

The US Army’s search for armored mobility that is lighter, hybrid, and highly automated is an appropriate objective, but we must avoid illusions about purely technological solutions.

Successful maneuver will require an ability to project ambiguity, deception, and misdirection across domains.

“The protection offered by armor may be illusory,” Watling concludes, “but it is in casting illusions that armies can regain survivability.”

Watling’s force design also addresses the growing role of drones and unmanned aerial systems within a more holistic conception of combined arms. This counters former Google CEO Eric Schmitt, a dedicated Pentagon advisor, who visited Ukraine and concluded that the future of war will be “dictated and waged by drones” alone. Watling is acutely aware that drones and AI are being employed with substantial operational impact in ongoing conflicts. Yet, there is more to warfare than strike operations, and the author generates ideas for exploiting unmanned platforms, as well as countering their employment against US forces.

This is a meticulously researched product that makes evidence-based judgments on future force design at a granular level.

It is a timely exploration of ongoing changes in the character of warfare and draws upon ongoing trends and prudent extrapolations. Policymakers and military service force developers can glean numerous insights from Watling’s painstaking scholarship.

The proposals in The Arms of the Future are highly relevant to American defense requirements, at least with respect to conventional warfare. Unconventional requirements and the special operations community will not find much to delve into.

Readers may contest some conclusions, but they cannot doubt that the author framed the right questions and offered actionable solutions.

There is a need for objective and urgent testing of concepts and capabilities today. The best place to start would be with the incisive observations and ideas in this book.

.........
10 reviews
May 20, 2024
"The Arms of the Future" by Jack Watling explores the changing landscape of modern warfare as new technologies reshape how armies fight in the 21st century. The book analyzes the choices that armies face as they incorporate old and new capabilities, from smart munitions and artificial intelligence to autonomous vehicles and drones. Watling highlights how the decisions armies make to leverage novel technologies ultimately determine their effectiveness on the battlefield. With a focus on practical experimentation and observation, Watling shows how armies must adapt and evolve in order to succeed in conflict. The book is timely as defense spending increases across NATO and tensions with Russia raise new questions about what it means to fight a truly "modern" war. Watling emphasizes the importance of how armies fight, rather than just what they fight with, in order to achieve success in modern warfare.
Profile Image for Jonathan Jeckell.
109 reviews21 followers
June 1, 2024
The characterization of the Army modernization process in the beginning seems unfair. My understanding is that the Army began modernizing certain systems without a major doctrinal or organizational overhaul to catch up with current threats while also kicking off a second phase of refining Multi-Domain Operations, the doctrine and concepts behind that, and the whole integrated DOTMLPF effort to meet the challenges in the near future.

Beyond that, nothing in the book was really surprising technologically or how these systems would be used or units organized.

I was concerned with the discussion in the conclusion about peacekeeping and working with partners below the threshold of great power conflict though, like fighting ISIS. Besides propping up bad actors directly, the same technology and processes we use to help fight terrible groups like that are also used by authoritarians to control their people and spread their oppression.
99 reviews
June 3, 2024
Quite a technical read but it is clear that Jack Watling knows his stuff. Using insights from the latest conflicts the author details, how future land combat forces might be organised and operate in a combat environment that is sensor rich and where precision munitions make mass, armour and close support aviation more vulnerable than in the past.
128 reviews3 followers
May 11, 2026
Ok, but choked a bit by the Military Standard English that makes it much more tedious to read than it has to be. Perhaps I am not enough of a specialist to fully appreciate anway.

I did take away that force design questions are in a deeply uncertain place right now with the future shape of capabilities in the air.
88 reviews
October 10, 2025
Great even though a bit technical read. Jack Watling details the 5 challenges of the future ground battlefield and then goes on to propose new systems to overcome them. A must read for any force planner.
Profile Image for Dale.
1,249 reviews
July 15, 2025
I highly recommend this book for my military planner and strategist friends. Well laid out and the author is actually highlight potential short falls in the end. Brilliant
Profile Image for Chris.
2 reviews
March 11, 2026
You can’t win a war without tanks! Great presentation that merged complex technical concepts into a digestible read.
Profile Image for Brian Prosser.
14 reviews2 followers
March 24, 2025
This was not easy book for me to get through. I started reading it last year and culminated about halfway through. Picked it up a few weeks ago and started anew. It's one of those books - at least for me - where I needed to reread some passages and also where I pulled my yellow highlighter out to capture notable passages. Having said all this, well worth the read for those with an interest in the future of technology and its place in warfare.
Per the author's intro, he sets out to "in short...sets out to identify the arms of the future." He does far more than this, though. He begins at the technical level of war and continues through the strategic.
Part 1 is a discussion from mechanized to informatized warfare. He discusses the transparent battlefield, discusses the spectrum, whether protection is an illusion, support requirements (specifically, the threat to logistics makes it harder to maintain operational tempo) and fighting in the cities (basically a breakdown of his chapters). Interesting discussion of stand-off vs. stand-in sensors. Updated thoughts on deception and whether ambiguity is the best we can achieve on this transparent battlefield. Discusses armor and how the improvements in lethality are increasing exponentially while improvements in protection take ever greater resources for smaller gains. Good discussion on the urban battle space.
Part 2 is titled The Arms of the Future and it encompasses discussions on how armies need to structure themselves to be relevant in future environments. He begins by defining the battlefield geometry, detailing the Zone of Operations, Zone of Contestation, and Zone of Risk. He ties this geometry back to the standoff vs. stand-in sensors and ability for ranged mass fires. He then looks at specific domains: maneuver; fires; assault; support. He details requirements for vehicles, weapons and other types of systems and sensors, squad sizes and the like. Surprisingly, the most interesting discussion for me was in the support system.
Part 3 is titled The Continuation of Policy. As the book to this point has been focused on the land domain, he then describes how the land domain fits into other domains, such as space, air, maritime, cyberspace, etc. Not the strength of the book, but good discussions. The second chapter in this section highlights what he believes are the priorities for armies for transformation: networks, shooters, sensors, urban training and capabilities , and layered defenses. Lastly, he discusses how the Army may be employed - and what limitations may be inherent - as an instrument of power.
Overall - well worth the time I took to read it. You may disagree with some of his positions and conclusions, but his arguments are well-reasoned and thought provoking. Four stars.
Profile Image for Himanshu.
25 reviews
January 30, 2025
The technology absorption described in a pragmatic manner into the new structures to arrive at maximal dividends is key take away of the book. It’s a good read of those in the functionality of military.
29 reviews2 followers
June 29, 2025
Brilliant, thoughtful book that takes a broader look at where warfare is headed in the long term
Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews