On escalation: metaphors and scenarios

by Herman Kahn

In this widely discussed and influential book, HermanKahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrateshow the intensification of conflict can be depicted bymeans of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of whichbrings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of theladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be madebased on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious,others obscure, but the options are always there.Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely tocome through accident; but nations may elect to climb theladder to extinction. The basic material for the book wasdeveloped in briefings delivered by Kahn to military andcivilian experts and revised in the light of his findings ofa trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he statesthe facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionallythe terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and toconsider carefully the alternatives to such a path.In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, wherenuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imaginationeven for the professional analyst, salient details ofpossible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even morefor war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed.For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues andpossibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, thesituation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light onthe terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range ofpossibilities and complexities involved and are useful.

Genres: Nonfiction, International Relations, History, War, Military Fiction

Paperback

First published January 1, 1965

Reviews

[Reja · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a seminal text on escalation vis-a-vis nuclear crises. The strategic environment keeps evolving, but it’s worth revisiting this classic. Kahn’s escalation ladder metaphor remains theoretically relevant and intriguing.

[El]

Dr. Strangelove, I presume

[Ryan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Pretty dry but useful in parts and sort of too-canonical-to-not-read. Excellent appendix of "relevant concepts and language."