How Civilizations Die

by David P. Goldman

You've heard about the Death of the West.

But the Muslim world is on the brink of an even greater collapse.

Will we go down in the implosion?

Thanks to collapsing birthrates, much of Europe is on a path of willed self-extinction. The untold story is that birthrates in Muslim nations are declining faster than anywhere else—at a rate never before documented. Europe, even in its decline, may have the resources to support an aging population, if at a terrible economic and cultural cost. But in the impoverished Islamic world, an aging population means a civilization on the brink of total collapse—something Islamic terrorists know and fear.

Muslim decline poses new threats to America, challenges we cannot even understand, much less face effectively, without a wholly new kind of political analysis that explains how desperate peoples and nations behave.

In How Civilizations Die, David P. Goldman—author of the celebrated "Spengler" column read by intelligence organizations worldwide—reveals how, almost unnoticed, massive shifts in global power are remaking our future.

Goldman reveals:
How extinctions of peoples, cultures, and civilizations are not unthinkable—but certain
How for the first time in world history, the birthrate in the West has fallen below replacement level
Why birthrates in the Muslim world are falling even faster
Why the "Arab Spring" is the precursor of much more violent change in the Islamic world
Why looming demographic collapse may encourage Islamic terrorists to "go for broke"
How the United States can survive the coming world turmoil

In How Civilizations Die, David P. Goldman has written an essential book for understanding what lies in the future for America and the world.

Genres: History, Politics, Nonfiction, Cultural, Islam, Political Science, Religion

256 pages, Paperback

First published September 1, 2011

About the author

David Paul ‘Spengler’ Goldman is an economist, music critic, and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler. As a religious Jew, Goldman says that he writes from a Judeo-Christian perspective and often focuses on demographic and economic factors in his analyses; he says his subject matter proceeds "from the theme formulated by [Franz] Rosenzweig: the mortality of nations and its causes, Western secularism, Asian anomie, and unadaptable Islam."

Reviews

[Shawn · Rating 4 out of 5]

There's two types of Apocalypse porn: The quick asteroid/nuclear war/zombie collapse and the slow Malthusian/Spenglerian/This-is-the-way-the-world-ends-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whimper collapse. Goldman's book is the latter of the highest order. Secularists after reading this book will either go home to commit suicide or turn to their significant other and get down to the business of cranking out babies in the name of Western Modernity.

I've been following his column in the Asia Times for years and enjoy not only the nuggets of demographic doom but the flame wars ignited in the forums. I was even inspired to read Decline of the West by Goldman's pseudonym's namesake, Oswald Spengler as well as Rosenzweig's Star of Redemption. Maybe because I'm an American-born Chinese that I see certain things without the historic baggage or filter of some readers of this subject matter. BTW, the Asia Times is one of the most under-read and under-rated places in the geo-politics blogosphere, comparable and at times surpassing the prescience of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

Very articulate and eye-opening read on different nations' ability to adapt to modernity and globalization. The chapter titles alone elicited chuckles from me. If I had to sum up the main thesis:
1. If you think your soul is getting a ticket to eternity, then you have nothing to fear about making many babies.
2. If you think every step you take will be your last, then why bother with kids?
3. And if you think you're getting a ticket to eternity AND can fix an engine block using ONLY a completely unrelated manual written in the desert many centuries ago, your babies are going to starve.

[Daniel Cunningham · Rating 2 out of 5]

There are interesting figures/facts about population trends, projections and reproduction rates here.

Is there a coming demographic crisis coming in e.g. Middle Eastern countries? Possibly. I myself have wondered what the heck the various countries and peoples of the region will do in 30 or 50 years when oil really begun to tap out. Poor European countries? Possibly there as well.

But I don't know how much weight I give his projections... do I really believe that in 100 years Germany will be have lost 98% of its population... no. That Japan, Spain, Germany, etc. will have "ceased to exist." No.

Was "Spengler" using hyperbole? Possibly, but he sure doesn't sound like it. And, generally, the 20th time someone has repeated a claim you can be safe in assuming they are serious.

Do I give much credence to his other thoughts here? No. It is a hodgepodge dubious assertions and half-supported claims, contradictory moral reasoning, and cheerleading for Christianity of a certain flavor hitched together with Judaism of certain flavor. He doesn't seem to have seriously addressed a single competing theory in 270+ pages; that right there is a problem for me.

While the book points out some interesting -and, I agree, potentially very serious- demographic issues, it really falls down on doing any kind of real analysis. And while I sort of knew what I was getting into re: the author's religio-cultural-political beliefs, I'm still disappointed he was *so* beholden to them (to the point of illogic in a handful of places.)

Lastly, while the swath of countries from Turkey to Pakistan are surely "benighted" (a word I think he would approve of) his evident... distaste?.. for the people is, ah, a bit much. I came away with a definite sense that he is dancing on the graves of millions of people, before they've even died. That was only a sense "between the lines", to be clear, but I don't think I'm 100% off. If "Islam" goes down in a firey multi-decade convulsion, then the author's religio-cultural-political side "wins." I think that is the sense that comes across, his happiness with that "win", and a morally bankrupt callousness, to put it mildly, to the misery along the way.

I'm giving 2 stars, despite the obvious issues, because there is enough here to make you think, especially if you are not a demographer.

[Douglas Wilson · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a book with a lot of surprises, a lot of twists and turns. Goldman makes some questionable assertions here, but this was one of the most fruitful and thought-provoking books I have read in a long time.

[Charles Haywood · Rating 3 out of 5]

I have read David Goldman for a long time, under his alter ego, Spengler, a columnist for the “Asia Times.” His columns are invariably excellent—pithy, insightful, and a pleasure to read. But the talent set required to be a columnist is very different than that required of a book author. Many columnists are unable to write a book that is other than either a set of compiled columns or a padded out column. The late Joseph Sobran, who wrote for National Review when it more than a forum for third-rate neoconservatives angling for jobs under Republican politicians, was one such. David Goldman is another, and it shows in the many defects of this 2011 book, “How Civilizations Die.”

Goldman does have an argument to offer. Extracted from the book’s rambling text, it is basically this. First, the real demographic problem, in every country around the world, is inadequate birth rates, which will definitely lead to the population collapse of certain nations, and will likely lead to global population collapse. Second, contrary to received opinion, Muslim countries are also facing population collapses because of cratering birth rates. Third, contrary to what seems like the obvious honest reaction to this second point, namely relief, we should fear this, because it is likely to increase terrorism and violence in the short- and medium-term. Fourth, the only solution to declining birth rates in the West, and the consequent destruction of Western culture, is a reinvigorated Christianity and Judaism that sustains high birth rates among the superior subcultures of the West’s superior culture.

My complaint is not that this argument is wrong. It is certainly right to at least some extent. My complaint is that the argument is presented in a staccato, meandering and superficial fashion suited to a columnist’s weekly work. It would be more powerful if written as a book of this type should be—foundation stone laid upon foundation stone, building sturdy walls and roof on those foundations, topped with crenellations, surrounded by spiked defenses, and, over it all, a golden dome with a laser projecting the brilliant light of an unanswerable conclusion. As it is, the book is easy for the hostile, or even neutral, reader to dismiss because of its disjointed and conclusory, yet highly polemical, presentation.

Part I, “The Decline of the East, “ is taken up with demographic analysis, with a focus on the Muslim world. Goldman demonstrates convincingly that as of 2011, essentially the entire Muslim world is in the middle of a demographic catastrophe. Statistically, nearly all of this decline is correlated with female literacy and religious fervor. More of the former and less of the latter mean fewer children. Thus, the sole exceptions to the decline, so far, are some African countries with majority Muslim populations. But across the Muslim world, female literacy is going up, and religious fervor is going down (whatever may be the impression from the news), so the demographic future is decrease, not increase.

More generally, Goldman ascribes the global phenomenon of decreasing willingness to have children to the loss of transcendent faith—if God is dead, we should maximize our pleasure in the here and now. This phenomenon is most obvious in the West—but it is happening in the East, just much more under the surface. And where children are a cost, as in the modern world, rather than a benefit, to their parents, and the highest good is self-actualization, it necessarily follows that having lots of them is not in the best interests of the parents. He points out something often forgotten—that each person in the modern world produces vastly more than he consumes, and thus the most common arguments against alleged overpopulation fail before they get started. Humans are not antelopes, eating a static grass supply. But such production benefits society as a whole, or the individual producing, not the parents, so those who could produce more children are incentivized not to do so, even though society as a whole would benefit.

So, for example, the leaders of Iran constantly harangue their citizens about the need to have more children. Iran’s birth rate in 2011 was 1.76 (now it is 1.68). Replacement, the bare minimum needed, is 2.1. Now, “there are nine Iranians of working age for every elderly dependent. By 2050 . . . there will be seven elderly dependents for every ten working Iranians.” That’s bad enough, but making it worse is that there is going to be less, rather than more, money to pay for those dependents. “The country produces just $4,400 per capita, about a tenth of America’s GDP, and most of that comes directly or indirectly from oil and natural gas reserves—which are running out.”

Implicit in this argument is that no Muslim country, at least not one of any significance, will increase its wealth, and many will find their wealth diminishing. It is certainly true that no country outside the West, with the exception of a few East Asian countries, has reached the economic takeoff achieved by the West two hundred years ago. And in this case, past performance probably is an indication of future results. This, the Great Divergence, is not a focus of the book, but it is a necessary part of its argument. A related point that Goldman does not make is that all other things being equal, economic growth is increasingly unlikely as a country’s population ages, since it is always the young who make dynamism and growth possible—though only when ensconced in a larger culture that rewards individual excellence and achievement.

Goldman also touches on the non-Muslim world, but mostly for contrast in and in relation to the Muslim world. “By the end of the century, under the assumption of constant fertility, the economically active population (aged 15 to 59 years) of Western Europe will fall by two-fifths, and of Eastern Europe and East Asia by about two-thirds. . . . The least fertile European countries will see their total populations drop by 40 to 60 percent in the course of our present century. This is the great underreported story of our time.” Actually, it’s not really underreported—conservatives have been saying this for at least thirty years. Now it is going mainstream—just a few weeks ago Elon Musk, who is a weird blend of genius and con-man, but who has a nose for the future like few others, noted on Twitter that “The world's population is accelerating towards collapse, but few seem to notice or care.” I predict that it will soon be a topic of common discussion and alarm, camouflaged under disclaimers that no harm is meant to the primacy of individual choice. But it will be far too little, too late.

As far as Europe specifically, Goldman criticizes the so-called “Eurabia thesis,” that Muslim immigrants will effectively conquer Europe by having vastly greater birthrates than actual Europeans. He points out that Muslim immigrants to Europe face the same plunge in birthrates as actual Europeans within a generation of arrival (although not one as great as for actual Europeans, and with the exception of Britain, where Pakistani immigrants dominate and have maintained their birthrates). His conclusion, though, relies on Muslim immigration being relatively modest, and reproduction in the host countries the relevant issue. And there his data are wrong, because the world of 2011 is not the world of 2017. The reader is told “Europe’s biggest worry in 2011 is not colonization by Muslim immigrants but inundation by Muslim refugees fleeting the chaos in Arab North Africa. . . . On April 17, [2011], France stopped train traffic from Italy to repel an influx of North African refugees after Italy gave temporary residence visas to five thousand Tunisians, allowing them to travel outside Italy and become a burden on other European countries.” The reader suppresses a bitter chuckle, knowing that in 2016 Germany alone imposed more than a million such aliens on Europe, mostly young, rootless men looking for economic opportunity or handouts. So, whether or not immigrant birthrates drop over time, if within a decade tens of millions of Muslims move to Europe and the Europeans have no children, the result, the end of the superior Western culture, is a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, the Europeans have done an outstanding job of destroying what is superior in their culture totally aside from inviting alien cultures to dominate them, so maybe all roads lead to the same bad end.

Again, though, it’s hard to pick out Goldman’s actual arguments. I’m just imposing a coherent framework on a not-very-coherent Part I. Chapters and subchapters fly by, many interesting in their own right. Iran’s massive drug and prostitution problem. The Arab world’s economic problems. All about Turkey. Dubious practices common in traditional Muslim societies, such as female genital mutilation, honor killings, and cousin marriages. The taboo on examining the actual origins of the Q’uran. And much more, all of which is, or seems to be, tangentially related to what the book seems to be about, but is not presented in any coherent fashion, much less with a coherent thrust.

Part II, “Theopolitics,” does not improve things. This Part focuses on the perceived consequences of global demographic failure. But again, more chapters flit by, and what exactly the point is seems to get lost. We learn about the national extinctions of the Bronze Age, the Hellenistic world, the distinctions among small and large civilizations, the connections of Greek pederasty to the desire for immortality, Roman population decline, the Muslim theology of occasionalism, the “neo-paganism of national idolatry” to which Goldman ascribes the death of European Christianity, and how that relates to anti-Semitism. Quite a lot of topics for a short book with a focused topic—but such surface eclecticism is a common characteristic of erudite columnists, and tolerated in that short form, where the reader is expected to follow up with further reading on interesting-sounding topics. But here, it merely exhausts the reader and detracts from the thrust of the main argument.

There are plenty of interesting, if disconnected, thoughts. Goldman rejects the common trope that terrorism is somehow inherent to Islam. Rather, he thinks terrorism is driven by the realization that demographic decline means no future—and thus, demographic decline creates and exacerbates terrorism. “Today’s suicidal terrorism is not a Muslim problem as such, but a manifestation in the Muslim world of a general principle: there is no such thing as rational self-interest for people who believe that they have nothing to lose.” Goldman draws a parallel to early-20th Century political terrorism in Russia, which killed tens of thousands prior to the seizure of power by the Bolsheviks. Goldman’s claim is that those facing certain defeat are often more willing to die, from Athens in the last days of the Peloponnesian War, to Confederates at the end of the Civil War, to Germans at the end of World War I. This is, as I say, interesting, but it is not at all wholly convincing. Sure, it could be true, but it is more of an educated guess, a surmise, than a compelling argument.

Goldman’s point here, I think, is that the collapse of fertility everywhere is closely tied to the collapse of religious belief. Thus, in Part III, “Why It Won’t Be A Post-American World,” Goldman lays out his claim that “American fertility has stabilized at replacement,” because Americans still have relatively vigorous religious faith, and as a result America will endure while Western civilization dies everywhere else and the world as a whole spirals into demographic collapse. The only country joining America in this pullout from the demographic plunge is Israel, where the birth rate is still well above replacement, driven in part (but only in part) by the Orthodox birth rate of an incredible 8.5 children per women.

But the rub with a book of predictions is that, sooner or later, the future arrives. Goldman picked the 2010 high for America’s birth rate, at 2.1, or replacement. It is now 1.84 (though Israel’s has gone up slightly). Moreover, Goldman’s premise is that continued religious faith will power America’s somewhat higher birth rate. This is a false premise—the reality, more visible even in the past six years, is that that vigorous religious belief in America is dying faster and faster. Thus, there is more reason to conclude that the birth rate will continue to decline in America than to conclude it will recover and America will thrive as a result.

In any case, this basic conclusion is interesting enough, but only material for a column. Nonetheless, as with the earlier Parts of the book, we are then treated to some more not-very-coherent thoughts: on the arc of American religious belief; global Christianity and its growth; the philosophy of mortality; the export of democracy and its likelihood of failure; the morality of self-interest in the context of Augustinian realism; the superiority of individualism to collectivism; and more. Somewhere in here, maybe, is the core of is a stripped-down, focused argument and discussion, but it is very hard to find. So I gave up trying to find it.

Finally, “How Civilizations Die” also does not address, in any way, counter-arguments, from any direction. Time spent by the author rambling about tangential topics would have been better spent building defenses against those who oppose the author’s premises and conclusions. The reader would have benefited. The author’s failure to do so is, sad to say, a sign of vanity and another sign of his being columnist, who does not typically engage in debate, but rather in one-sided projection of conclusions supported by a loose framework. Oswald Spengler, the prophet of civilizational decline, from whom Goldman took his pen name, knew how to write a book of power. I am sad to say that the same is not true of the new Spengler.

[Kurtbg · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book posits that there is going to be a drastic decrease in the human population and that this is a problem. He cites that a decreasing fertility rate is a common factor among civilizations that fail, and prevention can only be obtained by theocracy. The second problem cited is that there will be a loss of culture, specifically Islam.

There’s a lot of good stuff for thinking about in here which is the only reason I give this book three stars. But there is a lot of opinions, omissions, and superficial analysis to read and tread lightly.

Let’s take a stab at the population argument first.
If you look at the historical population of the planet, people (and the planet) did just fine with half the current population, and even less. Determining what a right population for the planet would look like is probably in order before determining the right population for countries. This Malthusian puzzle is omitted in the book.

Second, when looking at historical population trends predict what will happen in the future is a dicey game. For example, take the trend up to 1920 and try and project it through 1970. You couldn’t have predicted the deaths in WWII and even less, the baby boom post-war. You can only make an estimate based on all things being equal – which isn’t very meaningful, other than comparing it to what is a “right” population in light of the emerging variances.

The author acknowledges that the changes from agrarian work to city work, as well as scientific advances in health and medicine, no longer required families to have children to support cheap labor and offset high infant high mortality. What’s not cited is that as technology advanced in medicine and the types of work engaged in to generate income, so do did the need and purpose of having families. The increased in life spans also plays a part as the need to have children earlier is less pressing. Surely, higher fertility rates can be expected in areas of higher infant mortality rates. Combine that with shorter life spans and the drive to reproduce is high. On the flip side of this is a paradigm where having families has more meaning than simple economic and medical factors. It changes the values of meaning and purpose for adults engaging in the enterprise of child rearing, because that’s what it becomes. The value of the individual is higher not because the mortality rates are high, but because the investment of the individual can be all the greater.

The beginning chapter blames two factors, but they’re really just one. The two factors are, women are giving birth less, and that woman who become literate have lower birth rates. In short, it’s women’s fault. As people become more literate (he’s really just speaking to women here as he rarely touches on men’s roles and responsibilities) they just spend more time pursuing pleasure, hooking up, and turning away from religion. Hence, the solution is easy: leverage religion, make it the sole driving purpose of humanity, keep people illiterate, and produce babies to maintain tribal dominance under the guise of protecting a culture based on drawing an arbitrary line in the sand.
That brings us to culture.

Culture is transitory, fictional, mutable, and only lasts for as long as it’s of value. The author cites that there are 18 languages, each with only one person who speaks it. When those people die, so will those languages. What evolved over time was that those languages no longer served a useful purpose. The wider populace found other ways of speaking which they find more valuable (hopefully they weren’t forced into those languages.) In this case, language is no different than a clothing style, or fads such as hula hoops, goldfish swallowing, and Adam Levine.
Civilizations, religions, gods, art and music styles, and even philosophies have had their time, and played their part to service those engaging in them, and to pass on a starting place for the next generation to ponder. That’s progress.

So what causes civilizations to die? Most often it’s being over-matched in technology be it economic or military based. Also playing a part is access to resources, famine, fractured and competing internal politics which renders any unified response to meet a dire threat impossible.
What’s common in the history of many successful countries is that more focus becomes engaged in digging the depths of culture than it is in preserving the security and needs to keep the soil fertile for a stable and sustainable future. More time is spent luxuriating in success and internal “keeping up with the Jones’” than protecting the political and economic institutions from degradation. This cycle seem to be driven by a combination of greed and generational amnesia.

Macroeconomics 101 tells us that population, technology, and stability determines quality of life. Without technology a company and country will fail. Technology means advancing the understanding of reality and finding better ways of doing things. In some cases it means moving from vacuum tubes to silicon chips. In the most simplest terms, it’s identifying that something being engaged in or used is doing more harm than good and needs to be replaced or all together stopped (use of asbestos, lead paint, fracking, strip mining, etc.)

There’s an anticipated problem of an increasing amount of people nearing retirement, and that younger generations will be unable to support them. That, however, is a problem endemic of political and economic failure which will ultimately balance out, but not without a high cost to those living in that interim. The boomers will work longer, they may end up getting less than what they thought, but those paying for them will surely not receive much benefit. Congress leaving an IOU after filching social security was a problem. The first problem, though, was setting up a government-run retirement plan that only works if an economy is always improving, there’s a parity or increase of population, and the availability of well-paying jobs.

Stopping the advancement and application of knowledge, closes the spigot on true democractic representation and advances the Spengler civilization decline clock ahead at a quicker pace.
Humans have been 100% involved with creating and changing all laws. Laws were created and removed such as prohibition, and added to ensure minority citizen’s rights to votes were explicitly protected. There’s also been old tribal laws that have been thrown out such as not eating shellfish and wearing mixed-fiber clothes. All of those decisions were controlled by people. Therefore, it would seems it’s up to people to debate and create laws and not just blindly accept what was done before without understanding the intent and whether it’s value is still applicable.

Forcing people to do something never ends well, especially when better alternatives exist. Revoking people’s autonomy and freedom to pursue, enjoy, and express the gift of being alive, within a responsible, healthy, and sustainable framework of progressive understanding, is a more righteous pursuit than enforcing a level of control which turns people into replaceable cogs/breeders in a systemic machine controlled by a select few who seek nothing else but to maintain their power.

[E. Kahn · Rating 2 out of 5]

Fertility-obsessed maniac. The book gets a second star as a special award for most creative use of non sequiturs in a purportedly serious work.

[Saad Aftab · Rating 1 out of 5]

Difficult read not because it mostly comprises an idea worth a paragraph or two at best (that moving away from religion and towards modernity leads to population decline barring the USA and Israel) but because of how it is interlaced with half truths, selective cherry picked quotes and plenty of self-aggrandizing.

Amongst the several issues with this book, here are some highlights:

- Firstly, correlation is not causation. Nobody involved with this work in an editorial capacity, seemed to agree.

- Of course, the author had the advantage of publishing this before history, in particular the years 2017 - 2020, blew the lid off of the United States' supposed religiosity and/or adherence to Christianity and the belief in impartiality/competence of the justice system.

- Factual misrepresentation and shocking lack of nuance in the presentation/portrayal of
Islam. The author gets basic facts wrong while propagating flat-out lies which not only were wrong but also lazy. As an example, the book claims that the God of Islam does not love mankind or give rights to men (Haqooq-ul-Ibad?). Numerous sayings/Hadith point to the contrary.
As an example, narrated By Abu Huraira : I heard Allah's Apostle saying, Allah divided Mercy into one-hundred parts and He kept its ninety-nine parts with Him and sent down its one part on the earth, and because of that, it's one single part, His creations are Merciful to each other, so that even the mare lifts up its hoofs away from its baby animal, lest it should trample on it." - Sahih Bukhari.
Also, narrated By 'Umar bin Al-Khattab : Some Sabi (i.e. war prisoners, children and woman only) were brought before the Prophet and behold, a woman amongst them was milking her breasts to feed and whenever she found a child amongst the captives, she took it over her chest and nursed it (she had lost her child but later she found him) the Prophet said to us, "Do you think that this lady can throw her son in the fire?" We replied, "No, if she has the power not to throw it (in the fire)." The Prophet then said, "Allah is more merciful to His slaves than this lady to her son."- Sahih Bukhari.

- Best non-sequitur for last, numerous early Obama-era policies/decisions are bashed with vague connections being made to Obama's supposed soft corner towards Islam (which I'm sure comes as news to the families of the countless civilians that became target practice for the drone program). Also according to the author, the best way to disarm the threat of a nuclear Iran (remember this is the start of the 2010's) is to bomb them into oblivion (how original) because diplomacy who?

The tragic note about the entire venture is that this work is cloaked in academic objectivity but is so shamefully biased and ill-informed in some places, that it serves as adequate recruitment fodder ready-for-use by all manners of nefarious fundamentalist forces.

Hard Pass.

[BJ Richardson · Rating 3 out of 5]

All the great civilizations of the past failed for one big reason. Their women stopped making babies.

At least, that is what Goldman would have you believe. His big premise is that when past and present civilizations started losing hope for their future, they stopped having children at a sustainable rate and the civilization collapsed from within. It doesn't matter if it is Sparta, Athens, Rome, or Russia. Once those women got out of the kitchen and started reading books... they were doomed. OK, perhaps I overstate his case, but more than once it sure seemed like he was doing a lot of gerrymandering of the statistics to fit his case.

As is often true with many others like him, Goldman is relying too heavily on birth rates for the growth or failure of a people group. If we are talking ethnicity, there might be a stronger case, but very often the growth or decline of a particular religion has very little to do with birth rates. Two cases in point. Pentecostalism was basically non-existent until a revival at a little church in Azusa Street lit a fire that burned the world near the beginning of the 20th century. Within a hundred years the number of Pentecostals grew to nearly a quarter-billion and over the past 20 years of the 21st century, that number has nearly doubled again. I don't care how many babies some women in LA started popping out babies, there ain't no explaining that truth. (Yes, that is a Jesus Freak reference) Another example would be the rapid growth of both Christianity and atheism in Iran today. The church is growing faster there (and Pakistan and Afghanistan) than anywhere else in the world despite ever-increasing persecution. In large part, it is because the younger generation is turning to it as a way to rebel against the religion and politics of their parents. Just this week I heard that in an anonymous survey of over 20 thousand Iranians, only 40% self-identified as Muslim. (32% Shiite, 8% Sunni, 3% Sufi). It isn't just about making babies. As it becomes harder and harder for oppressive countries to withhold the truth from their populations more and more people are rejecting Islam. Yes, the fear of death will mean they still claim Islam when the government census bureau comes knocking on their doors, but when nobody's looking... they are turning their gaze in other directions.

So this book is right that Islam is dying. It is even more true than it was when it was published nearly a decade ago. The book is also right that Turkey and Iran are both facing an aging crisis even worse than that of Europe. But the book is only half right about why.

[Adam T. Calvert · Rating 4 out of 5]

There are much better and more thorough reviews out there. But for my part the book was a very interesting look at the history of dead or dying civilizations and the applications for us today.

Generally, fertility rate is key. Once the fertility rate gets below a certain limit, the country has reached a point of no return - where economic devastation is certain (barring a miracle of God - which history has not yet observed concerning this particular demographic).

What was most striking to me (and what covers the subtitle of the book), is that Islamic countries have achieved in just decades what it has taken the West centuries to achieve. Their fertility rate is now equal with secular European countries. Goldman showed a correlation of when women become literate, the fertility rate declines. It took Europe hundreds of years for the fertility rate to reach its current status (since women were becoming literate). It took Islamic countries just a couple decades to reach the same fertility rate (since women were becoming literate).

This ties to one of his other points about the importance of faith. The Christians as a sub-group have a steady and sometimes increasing fertility rate among other religions - despite their locale. The conclusion I myself am drawing here is that the literate women of Islamic countries are succumbing to the secular mindset of childbearing not being a priority in life, or are otherwise losing faith in the religion they were born into as they become more literate.

Christian women, on the other hand, even when literate (and they have been for centuries), are still viewing child bearing as a priority in life. This makes sense as the Cultural Mandate in Genesis speaks to this as well as how often God speaks of the blessing of children. Biblically minded Christians (whether literate men or women) should want to have large families as the norm. I understand that physical, political, and economic difficulties could prevent that in certain circumstances. And I certainly wouldn't have any judgment against those families in those situations. But the norm should be for us to want to multiply and fill the earth.

It's interesting to see God move in a way that those civilizations who disregard that command of His are facing, or will face, the death of their own civilization. Interestingly, this includes the Islamic countries that are so often portrayed in the news as the countries that are going to invade and destroy America. It seems from this analysis, they're going to destroy themselves first.

[Sheryl · Rating 3 out of 5]

I've been reading "birth dearth" books since at least the 1980s; this one offered something new, first because he covers more ancient history than average, second because he covers the Islamic nations (granted, a lot of those I've read were written before the trends there were clear), and, third, because of his analysis of why Islam nations are dying, which I thought an interesting and likely thesis.

[Candice Bentley · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book had far too many exaggerated claims and ill begotten conclusions that they were essentially false…. And that was only up to page 7. I stopped reading as this would be a fruitless endeavor in learning. (I can research the topic without needing to read a false narrative that I have to double check all of the time.)

[Erik · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting figures. The basic theme of this book is the plunging fertility rates in many countries across the globe and how this is tied to a loss of faith. The author argues that countries lose the "will to live" when they see their culture unable to advance, which normally happens when they turn from religion but cannot replace it with anything enduring. At that point, fertility rates drop and the culture goes into a demographic slide. He says many countries in Europe have already reached the point of no return; that is, even with an (unlikely) upturn in fertility rates, these countries cannot produce enough children to avoid economic disaster.

This economic disaster is the inability of a small number of young (working) people to support a huge population of retired people. Many of Europe's economies will not be able to care for its elders. This is an issue debated heavily in the United States today with regard to Social Security, even though the US is one of the few countries that has not fallen into the demographic death spiral.

The United States remains a country of vibrant faith. This fact correlates with a fertility rate in the US that remains above the replacement rate. The reason for this survival is described as being due to America's having been built on an ideal that sees each person having worth in the eyes of a higher power. Although Europe was Christian for centuries, coming out of the Middle Ages nations formed in an attempt to abrogate the Church's power; its leaders wanted to redefine themselves as the Chosen People taking the Promised Land, replacing the Jews in Israel. One can certainly see this in the glaring but not isolated examples Henry VIII's establishment of the Church of England and the supposedly divine "Sun King" in France. In the 18th and following centuries, the mantle of religion was discarded while rabid nationalism continued. All the while, people could not sustain hope as the nations of Europe repeatedly destroyed each other and even themselves. Even before the World Wars of the 20th century, the Thirty Years war killed a horrifying percentage of people across the continent. Hence, fertility has been sliding in Europe for years.

Surprisingly, the same scenario is recently playing out in the Middle East. I recall when I was younger, Yassar Arafat made some statement to the effect that the Arab womb was his greatest weapon. However, in the economic decline and political instability of the radical Muslim regimes across Africa and Asia, hope disappeared completely. In the rise of Arafat, the Ayatollah in Iran, and the like, so too came suicide bombers. The Muslim world embraced the notion that they has to sacrifice themselves just to fight the last fight; they had lost all hope.

The author talks of the Muslim belief that each social structure is a miniature of the larger structure. This means that a man is the absolute ruler in his household, which may explain tolerance for wife beatings and mercy or honor killings. No one has, like in the Christian world, an appear directly to God. Without the Jewish notion of Covenant or the Christian hope in Jesus Christ, the Muslim God is too absolutely great to care for an individual.

Silently, while the bombings made news across the world, the Middle East has experienced in the last two or three decades the sharpest decline in fertility rates recorded in recent history. The subsequent economic impacts will destroy the already fragile economies in these countries. The Muslim world appears to be dying faster than everyone else. The only country in the Middle East defying these trends is, as one would expect if one believes this thesis, Israel, which like the US maintains its faith and has seen a recent uptick in its fertility rates.

A though-provoking book whose veracity will not be proven out for decades to come.

[Paul · Rating 4 out of 5]

Listened to the whole book on a road trip from eastern Ohio to DC back to Knoxville. Definitely achieved its end of keeping me awake and aware throughout. Probably more of a 4.5, but I try to be sparing with 5s.

The cover blurb is a pretty accurate summary of a lot of the book, but there is also an intriguing look at Greek history through the demographer's lens and the latter half contains a very provocative overview of the entirety of European history from the end of the Roman Empire to the present. I say provocative somewhat self-servingly since it turns out the author and I agree in near entirety about the central hypocrisy of the medieval Church in its alliance with the state; it's just that Goldman has gone to the trouble of writing a book about it and has therefore followed some lines of reasoning out to conclusions that I have not. In the final chapters there is an interpretation of the demographic character of the US and Israel and their national character that I think manages to avoid a moralistic American exceptionalism, although readers of other political persuasions I have no doubt do not.

In short, this book probably has already managed to offend both the remaining Jacobites and Legitimists and the much larger, but also (as the author points out) dwindling, number of Western leftists and liberals severely, and therefore has a chance of being a reasonably accurate diagnosis of the state of affairs of today. Goldman doesn't take the trouble I would to avoid simplistic mathematical extrapolations of contemporary birthrates off into the indefinite future, and I think that helps keep him from any attempt at realistically speculating what will happen to both European and Islamic societies as they gray. If there were one thing that I would either add to this book or make room for (there is probably enough repetition in the book for the latter option) in order to bulk it up to a 5 in my opinion, it would be that. On the other hand, I realize that "realistic speculation" is nearly an oxymoron, so I respect the decision, conscious or unconscious, to neglect to do so.

[Duane Alexander Miller · Rating 5 out of 5]

A provocative but fascinating book. The author explains how civilizations die--not because of environmental disaster or wars, but because they lose the will to continue living. This is demonstrated in their lack of a willingness to produce a future generation, which is to say, demographics. His evidence of demographic decline in Japan and countries throughout Europe appears very strong.

The author thinks the USA and Israel are two societies that will resist the trend towards self-elimination. Some readers will find this optimism to be misplaced, as recent figures show that the economic downturn in the USA has led to below-replacement TFR. Also, the fastest growing section of population in Israel is Orthodox Jews, many of whom do not work, pay taxes, or serve in the military.

Goldman argues that this is also the case in many Islamic countries, and points to the low TFR (total fertility rate) in countries like Iran and Turkey. His convincingly argues that leaders there are aware of this problem.

Civilizations die because they can no longer produce answers and sustain an identity. Goldman sees this happening both in Islam's encounter with modernity, as well as the failed nationalism of various European states.

Of particular interest to me were his historical sections on the depopulation of the Roman and Greek regions, and his proposal for Augustinian realism in reference to foreign policy.

[Patricrk patrick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Do I believe the authors theory that civilizations die because people stop having children? No, he argues that a sense of despair about your culture or religion results in families no longer making the commitment to raise children and the presence of an inverted pyramid in population distribution leads to the collapse of civilization. Hard to swallow. Worth the read to at least challenge your own conception of how the world works and what the future holds.

[György · Rating 4 out of 5]

Divine Comedy...that came first like a spark, or better like a thunderlight to my secular mind. I might need days or weeks to get over and recover in order to be able composing something, anything meaningfully about Goldman's journey through human misery and torment that is somehow always to spin out of control into chaos.

[Mike · Rating 5 out of 5]

Mark Steyn explained the threat of Islam. David Goldman explains why Islam is threatening but no real threat in the long term. Besides this, the book is a rundown on current demographic trends and what they mean for the world over the next century. There are many surprises. A MUST READ.

[Leandro Dutra · Rating 4 out of 5]

Augustinian geopolitical realism by a modern orthodox Jew. What a ride!

[Mike · Rating 4 out of 5]

I like books that challenge my view of the world. Not drama or hyperbole, but with data and sharp analysis. That is why I picked up this book, with the provocative subtitle. This is like _Factfulness_, but with a focus on the repercussions of a contracting world population.

The author's primary thesis is that there are less and less kids being born today, throughout the entire world. That populations of just about every country will gray and shrink over the next 50 years. All except for the US, which seems a special case (the book was published in 2011, so some of the analysis about the US may need updating). This is data from the UN, tracking what happens when nations educate their women and become even slightly more secular. Less kids per woman, all below replacement levels. That means a depopulation event.

The author used a lot of historical data to show that all civilizations go through a bust cycle where they have less kids. A civilization doesn't end in a bang, but in a slide into the mists of history. That culture can not last forever in its original form, but is absorbed by another growing civilization and altered. Think Greeks to Romans. But all cultures will face this at some point. It is a matter of what do the people do in the face of it.

One profound insight, at least for me, was about what happens when a civilization or culture loses hope. Their population starts to fall, they can't see the future, the adults have no way forward. In many cases, the civilization will lash out and attack. Either to transmit their fear and pain onto others. Or simply try to arrest the slide. This becomes the primary driver of terrorism, lashing out as they only see an abyss and want to blame someone.

All of the Muslim countries are facing a depopulation event. This was new to me, as I had seen countries like Iran are very young. But this is seen as a one time event. The leaders of Iran and neighboring countries use the language of fear to place blame onto outsiders. Iran's leaders are fearful its perceived enemies will take them over in 20-30 years when their military aged young people drop in number. They are one of many who fear a loss of their identity. But they and the rest of us can not hold back historical precedent.

The US is an exception due to two factors (as of 2011). Immigration is one. Pull the smartest people from all around the world to come solve problems together. Here I see it as immigrants of all backgrounds. We should be that shining city on the hill that will guide the world through depopulation. The second is an active religious element of the population. The data shows that the more religious (in this case evangelical Christians), the more kids they have. That group of more kids per woman balances out the rest of the country so the US, in 2011, is at replacement levels. Add the immigrants, that makes us grow.

One thing that is missing, in my opinion, is the effect of high technology to the depopulation event. In all of the historical examples, technology (Industrial Age) is absent. Japan is an excellent example of a country that is graying quickly and contracting in numbers. They have turned to robotics as a solution to ease their way through the rest of the century. More automation will help curb the drop in production. AI will help augment the thinking of people so that work output remains the same with less people. Such solutions and a desire to learn about the universe may help in cushioning the human race from despair. There will be less people. It is up to the current and future generations to determine how they will face it and thrive.

[Ana Gil · Rating 3 out of 5]

I "read" the audiobook version and the reader did not caught my attention. Also, the book has some very interesting points, but keeps changing topics... It is hard to find the narrative structure.
The main idea is that Civilizations die because the population is declining. And is declining because of our modern liberal ideals. The maximization of wellness, personal growth, carreers, vacations, wealth, etc., do not go along with the investment that children encompass - both financially and personally. The exception can be found in more religious societies, where altruism and contribution to the "common good" still dictate life decisions. But also Muslim societies - such as Iran, for example, - are becoming less religious. In the case of Muslim societies, the author argues, declining is bad because they may become more dangerous, since they have nothing to lose. The author, however, makes an "easy" connection to the jihad and suicidal bombings that seem to far-fectched for me.
Also interesting are the ideas on why liberal democracies cannot work in some Muslim countries, where the value of the individual is not recognised. The concept of liberal rights is not important in societies based in collective ideals.
I also enjoyed to read the different concepts that monotheist religions have with God: from the billateral love of the Jews and Christians, to the unilateral servitude of Muslims - although some critics complaint that this is not completely accurate. In reality, the author paints a somehow bad portrait of Islam, namely referring that Women subjection to man is a impossible to overcome for Muslims.
To sum up, the book is less a book than a collection of different cronics. And the reader is not engaging. Perhaps my opinion would be different in a paper edition

[Victor N · Rating 1 out of 5]

David Goldman is not qualified in any of the topics he covers in this book, unfortunately I didn’t know that when I got this book.

We need better community and government support for the elderly and for underserved communities. The model of never ending growth is neither sustainable nor desirable; we can fight this fact or understand it and adapt. This can be done early and can be aided by technology if societies decide to focus on welfare issues. Instead, the author chooses to profess doom using nationalist language and a rigid identity politic which isn’t realistic.

In reading fear-based books like this, it is important to ask many questions because fear has such a low rationality-bar that needs to be cleared to make a point. I kept asking, “is this a good way to present the claim” and “if I assume it is true, does it actually matter in the way the author claims it does.” Fortunately I felt that the author failed in nearly every case.

The author also fails to represent the extrapolation of statistics in an intellectually honest way. It fails to present population and cultural shifts in a historical honest way. In the book’s discussion of cultural extinction events, I found no value in it. The author doesn’t understand or fairly describe the difference between the “death” of a culture and the physical death of people. He leaves no room for an evolution of identity.

There are clearly modernity problems in the Quran and Sura 4 is an obvious example, but the author has either not read the complete Quran and/or is not adequately versed in Christian and Jewish theology. To say that there is such a sharp divergence based on the scripture is so disingenuous. What is clear is that Islam has a much shorter time-window to reform how the text is interpreted and which sections become emphasized than Christianity and Judaism had.

[Dave Beeman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting take on why certain civilizations have failed in the past and will fail in the future. Number one cause of failure - declining birth rates. Predicates that such countries as Japan, Germany, and Iran will within the next 50 years fail as states because the drop in and ageing of their populations will lead to the situation of not enough young people being available to support the aged or man the countries armed forces.
According to Goldman, when a tribe or a nation suddenly realizes its demise into insignificance, whether defeated in war or leapfrogged by newcomers who accidentally stumble on better ideas, institutions, or technology, reproduction declines. When the fertility of the tribe or nation falls below replacement level, its civilization eventually disappears. At times, the tribe gradually dies out, literally speaking.

[Mike Rozental · Rating 3 out of 5]

Too much theology, and too little geo political and geo economic analysis. No mention of the rise in Mexico demographics. No mention of the
Bretton woods system and its implications on world economic policy.
Idealisation of Israel, with no mention of the distrust of the judicial system in the Israeli public, or the fact that most Israeli educated elites would rather emmigrate to Canada or Australia then stay in a country with rising religious beliefs, high tax rates and all powerful presence of worker unions (the fact that they have made multiple strikes that crippled the airports and ports of our country with economic damege measuring in the billions means something...).
Few decent facts but a selective and simplified view of a rather complicated situation with multiple variable factors.

[Evghenii · Rating 4 out of 5]

It is fairly easy to read since the author is a columnist. So the book reads more like a very long article. His perspective is interesting and some of his claims are thought-provoking. The feeling though is that he comes across as one of those political analysts who make claims about the future. But as I was reading it the feeling was that statistics is yet another type of "lie" and that something is not taken into account. I would give the book 3.5 stars, but due to lack of such option, I still think it is one worth exploring.

[Henry Stock · Rating 5 out of 5]

Goldman explores the links between Demographics, Education levels, historic events, and Religion and asserts some interesting conclusions about human civilizations.

My interpretation: People need to believe there is something worth living for beyond themselves, a higher meaning to life and when the bulk of a civilization seems to lack that then it gradually withers away.

There were some interesting conclusions about the differences between Christianity and islam on this point.

[Mega · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book poses a different viewpoint from the mainstream about overpopulation. Instead of overpopulation, we are headed to not enough people. This is true as we see many cultures and countries decline or the culture being wiped out entirely. Islamic civilization is a focus in a lot of the book, which isn't talked about in others. Overall, a decent read if you want to learn a different perspective with facts.

[Lanny]

Some parts fascinated me, some parts I just had to force myself to push through, and other parts I'm pretty sure I disagree with...but I always read it at night so it was hard to keep my brain super engaged.
I feel he forced his lens of birth rate on all sorts of political, religious, philosophical, and historical events. Sometimes it was helpful and other times it was distracting from the main thing that was actually going on.

[Noah · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very well done and fascinating. Lots of good research here,
and a great thesis. The most helpful insights for me were, 1)
that a nation with nothing to lose is very dangerous (I had never
realized that many Islamic nations face drastic secularization that
is leading to lower birth rates), and 2) when a nation ceases to have
a sense of purpose, it ceases to have offspring.

[Ben · Rating 3 out of 5]

The entire premise of the book, that civilizations cannot survive unless their birthrates continue to increase, is something I reject out of hand and he never convinced me throughout the book.

Overall an interesting read from author whom I don't share many subjective opinions with on what we both agree are objective problems.

[Jeor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very little is talked about demographic and socioeconomic collapse in islamic world, albeit nothing sort of revelatory- I was unaware of its intensity.
Incompatibility of Islam with western concepts of statehood and constitutionalism, differences with judeo-christian theopolitics, etc are also well done, and perhaps closest to being revelatory.