Trading for a Living
Psychology TradingTactics Moeny Management
Dr. Alexander Elder
Lying to others is bad enough, but lying to yourself is hopeless
Bookstores are full of good books on dieting, but the world is full of overweight people.
Essential element of winning - the management of your emotions
To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognize real trends and turns,
and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishful thinking.
Slippage = difference between the price at which you place your order and the price at which
it gets filled. You pay commissions for entering and exiting trades.
Commissions and slippage are to traders what death and taxes are to all of us.
Design a trading system that will trade less often.
Three kinds of slippage: common, volatility-based and criminal.
Common slippage is due to a spread between buying and selling prices. Bid & Ask
Slippage rises with market volatility.
To reduce slippage, trade liquid markets and avoid thin and fast-moving markets.
Go long/short when the market is quiet. Use limit orders = buy or sell at a specified price.
The market consists of tough men who look for ways to take money away from you.
Every winner needs to master 3 essential components of trading: a sound individual psychology,
a logical trading system, and a good money management plan
Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyze your feelings as you
trade, to make sure that your decisions are intelectually sound. You have to structure your money
management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.
Freud believed that gambling was universally attractive because it was a substitute for masturbation.
After practicing psychiatry for many years, I became convinced that most failures in life are due to
self-sabotage. We fail in our professional, personal and business affairs not because of stupidity or
incompetence, but to fulfill an unconscious wish to fail. !
The mental baggage from childhood can prevent you from succeeding in the markets. You have to find your
weaknesses in order to change. Keep a trading diary - write down your reasons for entering and exiting
every trade. Look for repetitive patterns of success and failure. !
You are responsible for every trade you make. A trade begins when you decide to enter the market and ends
only when you decide to take yourself out.
Successful traders treat drawdowns the way social drinkers treat alcohol.
If they take several losses in a row, they take that as a signal that something is wrong: It is time to stop
and rethink their analysis or methods.
Your trading records must show the date and price of every entri and exit, slippage, commissions, stops,
all adjustments of stops, reasons for entering, objectives for exiting, maximum paper profit, loss etc
A trader who feels serene and relaxed can focus on looking for the best and safest trades.
"Good morning, my name is Alex, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account."
You can never control the market but you can learn to control yourself.
The traders who can make money consistently .. approach trading from the perspective of a mental discipline.
Rules:
1. Decide that you are in the market for the long haul - you want to be a trader even 20 years from now.
2. Learn as much as you can, but keep a degree of healthy skepticism about everything. Ask questions
3. Do not get greedy and rush to trade - take your time to learn
4. Develop a method for analyzing the market : "If A happens, then B is likely to happen".
5. Develop a money management plan
First Goal : Long-term Survival
Second Goal : A Steady Growth of Capital
Third Goal : Making High Profits
6. Be aware that a trader is the weakest link in any trading system.
7. Winners think, feel and act differently than losers. Strip away your illusions and change your old way
of being, thinking and acting.
Price is what the greater fool is ready to pay.
The price of stock has very little to do with the company it represents. The price of IBM stock has very little to do with IBM
Price is the intersection of supply and demand curves.
Ask is what a seller asks for his merchandise. Bid is what a buyer offers for that merchandise.
The crowd may be stupid, but it is stronger than you. Crowds have the power to create trends.
You do not have to run with the crowd - but you should never run against it.
Trading means trying to rob other people while they are trying to rob you.
Your goal is to trade well, not to trade often.
Black box in trading software: What goes inside it is a secret. You feed it data and it tells you when to buy & sell
Each price represents the consensus of the crowd at the moment of transaction.
You have to observe yourself and notice changes in your mental state as you trade. Write down reasons for entering and exiting
a trade and the rules for getting out of it, including money management rules. You must not change
your plan while you have an open position.
Prices move up or down because of the changes in the intensity of greed and fear among buyers and sellers!
Not because there were more buyers than sellers. The number of stocks bought and sold is equal in the stock market.
Technical analysis is a study of mass psychology.
To make money trading, you do not need to forecast the future. You have to extract information from the market and find out
whether bulls or bears are in control. You need to measure the strength of the dominant market group and decide how likely
the current trend is to continue.
You must observe how your mind works and avoid slipping into greed or fear. A trader who does all of this will succeed more
than any forecaster.
Successful trading stands on three pillars. You need to analyze the balance of power between bulls and bears. You need to practice
good money management. You need personal discipline to follow your trading plan and avoid getting high in the markets.
Chart patterns reflect the tides of greed and fear among traders.
In bull markets, prices often make their low for the week on Monday or Tuesday on profit taking by amateurs, then rally to a new
high on Thursday or Friday.
In bear markets, the opposite (the high for the week is often set on Monday...)
It pays to enter your trades during short of normal bars. Tall bars are good for profit taking.
Trying to put on a position when the market is running is like jumping on a moving train. Wait for the next one.
The longer a support or resistance area - the stronger it is.
Trading rules:
1. Whenever the trend you are riding approaches support or resistance tighten your protective stop (= an order to sell below the market
when u are long or to cover shorts above the market when u are short)
2. Support and resistance are more important on long-term charts than on short-term charts. Weekly chart are more important than dailies.
A good trader keeps an eye on several timeframes.
Directional system indicator = good at catching early stages of new trends.
When pros are in doubt they look at the big picture, but amateurs focus on the short-term charts.
The longer the timeframe, the longer the treadline, the more contacts between prices and trendline, the more important and valid that
trendline is.
Try to find out the angle of your trendline?
A trendline break is valid only if prices close on the other side of the trendline.
Trading Rules:
1. Trade in the directionof the slope of a trendline. If it points up, look for buying opportunities and avoid shorting.
2. A trendline provides support or resistance
3. Steep trendlines precede sharp breaks.
4. Prices often retest their latest extreme after breaking a steep trendline
Chart patterns:
2 types - continuation and reversal
Continuation patterns include flags and pennants. They suggest trading in the direction of the current trend.
Reversal patterns include head&shoulders, inverse h&s and double tops and bottoms. They indicate it is time to take profits on positions.
Trading Rules:
1. Sell when you recognize the head or the right shoulder of a h&s pattern, based on low volume,a break of an uptrend, a divergence
between indicators and prices.
2. The decline from the head establishes a neckline. Place a stop below the neckline if you still hold a position.
3. Once the neckline is broken, a pullback on low volume offers an excellent shorting opportunity.
Volume is really important. Ex: Price is coming close to support. If volume is low, it is probably going to be a false breakout.
If volume is higher (one-third to one-half higher than the average of the last 5 days ) it is probably a valid breakout.
Triangles:
A triangle whose lower boundary is rising is called an ascending triangle => tell you to expect an upside breakout.
A descending triangle has a declining upper boundary => shows that the prices are more likely to break down
Upper line connects 2 or more peaks, and the lower line connects 2 or more bottoms.
In trying to decide whether a triangle on a daily chart is likely to lead to an upside or a downside breakout, look at the weekly chart.
IF the weekly trend is up, then a triangle on the daily charts is more likely to break out to the upside and vice versa.
When a breakout from a triangle is followed by a pullback, pay attention to volume.
A pullback on heavy volume threatens to abort the breakout, but a pullback on light volume offers a good opportunity to add to ur position.
Black box software tells you what to buy and sell and when to buy or sell it without telling you why.
Position traders enter and exit positions within days or weeks.
You need to become a competent position trader before you can day-trade. You can compare position trading and day-trading to playing
a video game at level one and level nine. The pace of the game is so fast that at level nine your reactions must be almost automatic.
Pros divide indicators into 3 groups: trend-following indicators, oscillators and miscellaneous.
Trend-following indicators work when markets are moving but give bad and dangerous signals when the market is flat.
Oscillators catch turning points in flat markets but give premature and dangerous signals when markets begin to trend.
Miscellaneous indicators provide special insights into mass psychology.
The secret is to combine several indicators from diff groups so that their negative features cancel each other out.
Trend-following indicators: MA, MACD, the Directional System, On-Balance Volume
Oscillators: Stochastic, Rate of Change, Momentum, RSI etc.
Miscellaneous provide insights into the intensity of bullish or bearish market opinion: New High-New Low Index, Put-Call Ratio etc.
A modern computerized trader is better off using Exponential Moving Averages.
Author is using 13-day EMA.
When an EMA rises, trade that market from the long side. Buy when prices dip near or slightly below the moving average.
When an EMA falls, trade that market from the short side. Sell short when prices rally toward or slightly above the EMA.
Donchian = one of the originators of trading with moving averages.
MACD creator = Gerald Appel (analyst and money manager in NY)
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence consists of 3 EMAs.
Standard MACD: 12, 26, 9 bar EMAs
MACD Rules:
1. When the fast MACD line crosses above the slow Signal line, it gibes a buy signal, go long.
2. When the fast line crosses below the slow line, it gives a sell signal, go short.
MACD Histogram Rules:
1. Buy when MACD-Histogram stops falling and ticks up. Place a protective stop below the latest minor low.
2. Sell short when MACD-Histogram stops rising and ticks down. Place a protective stop above the latest minor high.
When prices rally to a new high, but MACD-Histogram traces a lower top, it creates a bearish divergence.
Sell short when MACD-Histogram ticks down from its second, lower top, while prices are at a new high.
Buy when MACD-Histogram ticks up from its second, more shallow bottom while prices are at a new low.
Class A bearish divergence - prices reach a new peak while an indicator reaches a lower peak. This is the strongest
sell signal.
Class A bullish divergence - prices fall ti a new low while an indicator stops at a more shallow low than before.
This is the strongest buy signal.
Class B bearish divergence - prices trace a double top while an indicator reaches a lower peak.
This is the second strongest sell signal.
Class B bullish divergence - prices trace a double bottom while an indicator traces a higher second bottom.
This is the second strongest buy signal.
7-day Momentum of closing prices = today's closing prices minus the closing price 7 days ago.
Momentum is positive if today's price is higher, negative if today's price is lower.
7-day Rate of Change (RoC) divides the latest price by the closing price 7 days ago.
S-RoC (Smoother Rate of Change) another good indicator, better than RoC
A rule of thumb with all oscillators - when in doubt, make them shorter. This is the opposite of trend-following
indicators - when in doubt, make them longer.
Williams %R - oscillator that measures the capacity of bulls and bears to close prices each day.
- shows which group is capable of closing the market in its favor.
A very short-term Stochastic (5days or so) helps catch short-term reversals.
A longer Stochastic (14-21 days) helps identify more significat market turns.
Stochastic shows when bulls or bears become stronger or weaker.
Weekly Stochastic usually changes its direction one week prior to weekly MACD-Histogram.
Divergencies between RSI and prices give the strongest buy and sell signals.
Buy signals are especially strong if the first RSI bottom is below its lower reference line and second bottom
is above that line.
Sell signals are especially strong if the first RSI top is above its upper reference line and the second top
is below it.
RSI trendlines are usually broken one or two days before price trendlines.
It pays to buy using overbought signals of daily RSI only when the weekly trend is up.
It pays to sell short using sell signals of daily RSI only when the weekly trend is down.
V. The Neglected Essentials (178/306)
Daily Volume is the number of contracts or shares traded in one day.
Volume reflects the activity of buyers and sellers. If you compare volume between 2 markets, it will show which
one is more active/liquid. You are likely to suffer less slippage in liquid markets than in thin.
Rule of thumb for volume: "High Volume" for any given market is at least 25% above average for the past 2 weeks
"Low volume" is at least 25% below average.
Volume represents the emotions of market participants.
When you analyze the market in two timeframes, the shorter of them has to five times shorter than the longer one.
If you want to analyze daily charts, you must first examine weekly charts, and if you want to day-trade using
10-minute charts, you first need to analyze hourly charts.
The New High - New Low Index tracks the strongest and the weakest stocks on the exchange and compares their
numbers. It measures the balance of power between the leaders in strength and the leaders in weakness.
S&P tends to follow the trend of NH-NL.
TRIN = The Trader's Index -> it shows when major rallies and declines get ready to reverse
- it measures the ratio of advancing to declining stocks and compares it to the ratio of advancing to declining
volume.
NH-NL, TRIN, Advance/Decline, Most Active Stocks are probably the best stock market indicators.
When the crowd reaches a strong consensus, the trend is ready to reverse.
ex: When the crowd becomes highly bullish, it pays to get ready to sell.
Hedgers = firms or individuals who deal in actual commodities in the normal course of business.
Elder Ray = technical indicator
- to be a successfull trader, you do not have to forecast the future. You need to find when bulls or bears
are in control and trade with the dominant group. Elder-ray helps you see when bulls and bears become stronger
or weaker.
Triple Screen technique:
Triple Screen demands that you examine the long-term chart first. It allows you to trade only in the direction
of the tide/trend - the trend on the long-term chart. (First Screen)
Second Screen: Apply an oscillator to a daily chart. Use daily declines during weekly uptrends to find buying
opportunities and vice-versa.
- identify a wave that goes against the trend on a daily chart
Third Screen is a technique for entering the market after the first and second screens gave a signal to buy
or sell short.
Triple Screen Summary:
Weekly Trend Daily Trend Action Order
Up Up Stand None
Up Down Long Trailing buy-stop
Down Down Stand None
Down Up Short Trailing sell-stop
Pros trade against deviations and for a return to normalcy. It is normal for prices to remain within channels.
Most breakouts are exhaustion moves that are quickly aborted. Pros like to fade them - trade against them. They
sell short as soon as an upside breakout stalls and buy when a downside breakout stops reaching new lows.
The unique feature of Bollinger bands is that their width changes in response to market volatility.
MACD-Histogram + Bollinger Bands = good combo?
Risk Management:
A trader who get giddy from profits is like a lawyer who starts counting cash in the middle of a trial.
A trader who gets upset at losses is like a surgeon who faints at the sight of blood.
A real pro does not get too excited about wins or losses.
The goal of a successful pro in any field is to reach his personal best!
Money flows to them almost as an afterthought.
Once you have your trading system, it is time to set the rules for money management.
1 Trade = MAX 2% of Your Equity (including commissions and slippage)
When in doubt, risk less.
The goal of a successfull trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary.
A real pro devotes all his energy to practicing his craft the best he can - not to counting money.
Concentrate on quality - on finding trades that make sense and having a money management plan
that puts you in control.
A trade does not end when you close out your position. You must analyze it and learn from it.
Have you identified a good trade? Which indicatos were useful and which did not work?
How good was your entry?
Fear of placing an order is the biggest problem that a serious trader can have.