This is Bill James on steroids. Examples where James would take averages to test theories, Thorn and Palmer would run multivariate regressions. It was the scientific next step in Sabermetric research. I wished at the time I read this that it was my dissertation topic. It was well before Moneyball, Billy Beane and the man he dubbed “The Greek God of Walks”, Kevin Youkilis. Back then the precise value of a walk with one out and a man on first was not well known. But thanks to the authors with their Expected Runs Matrix giving us the average number of runs we’d anticipate from every situation (like 2 outs, runners on first and third), stats guys like me could bore people even longer between pitches and beers.
One of my favorite baseball books. It talks extensively about how the batting order doesn't really matter. They have proved this with a baseball simulation game. While I understand what they are getting at, I wonder about the validity of making conclusions based on a simulation game. I remember when the Yankees had Reggie Jackson and he was in a batting slump. It was thought that he was essentially pouting because they wanted him to bat in a different position instead of his usual clean up spot. When they finally acquiesced and put him in the clean up spot, Jackson broke out of his slump and proved to actually be "the straw that stirs the drink." To me, it meant that he actually was pouting until he got his way, indicating that to him, the batting order did indeed mean something. And, because of this, I question the validity of gaining conclusions based upon the outcome of a baseball simulation game. The "players" in a simulation game have no preconceived notion of where they are batting in the order. Real players often do.
"The Hidden Game of Baseball" was written in 1984, one of the first truly analytic looks at the game and surprisingly, much that was revealed for the first time here is still relevant, and often not that well understood.
So for anyone whose familiarity with sabrmetrics (based on the name The Society for American Baseball Resarch, or SABR) begins and ends with "Moneyball," "The Hidden Game of Baseball" is an excellent starting point. The math is relatively easy to grasp, and though some of the formulas have changed dramatically, the concepts remain the same.
Today, unfortunately, much of the most advanced work is proprietary, developed and applied by Ivy Leaguers who work for baseball teams who have no desire to give up any advantage, no matter how small. Still, baseball fans who want to understand what's going on behind the obvious will find the curtain drawn back by the analysis in "The Hidden Game of Baseball."
This book, written in the 1980s, is kind of the beginning of advanced statistics in baseball, utilized to better measure player performance. Perhaps because I read a lot of baseball information and thus was more familiar with the statistics in question and how they were developed, the book didn't provide any profound insights into better understanding. That said, the book was well written, I found it interesting, if for nothing else, as a historical time capsule of sorts - to see how the debate over the statistics was framed thirty years ago, and not what has changed and what hasn't. The book is for people that love baseball and want to not only understand statistics better, but want to better understand the game itself, and how to measure and judge performance.
While I greatly enjoyed the book, the one complaint that I have, and the thing the made the Bill James Baseball Abstracts so enjoyable, was that James employed a rhetorical flourish that made the numbers come alive. Most would guess that Babe Ruth, if not the top player, would be near the top of any ranking. What I most enjoy is the vivid commentary that James employed in his books and I find this to be less evident from Thorn. I want the story with the numbers.
One of my favorite books of all time. I read it when I was 15 or 16 and it changed my life. Very accessibly and engagingly written.
The book was my introduction to statistics and a motivator to study it. I set about trying to do similar analysis for my favorite sport, hockey, back before the internet or graphical interfaces, using notepads, LOTUS 1-2-3, and The Sporting News annual magazines.
Thorough study of baseball players using statistical methods that remain uncommon over 30 years after the book was written. Ground-breaking at the time and still relatively unconventional today. I would have enjoyed my college statistics class much more with this as the textbook.
One of the granddaddys of sabermetrics, this book is. The fielding formulas aren't useful, but the framework for Batting Runs in this book is one of the best things ever in baseball analytics.