How to Take a Chance by Darrell Huff

by Darrell Huff

Explains in the ways in which the laws of probability may be applied to political forecasting, gambling, and the weather

Genres: Science, Mathematics, Nonfiction

Mass Market Paperback

First published September 1, 1964

Reviews

[Octavia Cade · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a likeable little book, well-illustrated with amusing cartoons, that is designed to teach the basics of mathematical probability to laypeople. It must be said that Huff does this very well - he has an extremely accessible style that explains the complexities of probability in simple ways. As an example of mathematical communication, it's very good... but it might be better.

Where I think the book falls down a little is in its use of examples. Now clearly gambling is an area where probability is key, but do we really need so many examples based around games such as cribbage and bridge? For the record, I have never played either, and so in places this is much less clear than it could be, simply because I don't understand what he's going on about when he talks about rubbers. One of the cartoons makes reference to this. "There are four types of people," it states, then goes on to draw them. "Men, women, children, and bridge players." Given this, I can't help but think that if your goal is to make a field more accessible to the general public, you're best off using the most clear and relevant examples you can. To be fair, in many places Huff does do this, but it felt like half the book was going on about card games. It seems to me a focus on how probability works in insurance and politics and medicine, for instance, would be of greater usefulness to a greater number of people.

[Nathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

From the author of "How to Lie With Statistics" comes another well-done explanatory book. It was written nearly 60 years ago, but all of the concepts are still relevant today. He even gives a simplified version of chaos theory, which I didn't think could be done. My only complaint comes from the fact that some of his examples (ie, the Yarborough in bridge) are a bit obscure, so not quite understanding them is to be expected. But most of them make a lot of sense.

Recommended to everyone who plays games of chance.

[Michael David · Rating 3 out of 5]

"The theory of probability gives us a useful way of answering this question: truth can never be attained, yet we can reach answers that are increasingly close to truth - that have a higher and higher degree of probability.

It helps to think of a line, marked 0 at one end and 1 at the other ... The 0 end is for things we are sure are not true; the .01 represents the barest possibility, and so on to the 1, which stands for 'absolutely true.'

You may increase your intellectual responsibility if you stop to assign a place on such a line to an idea, an opinion, or a conviction ... preferably before you assert it, act on it, or make it a fixed part of your mental equipment."

This reminds me that probabilistic thinking helps me against poor judgment. When I know that things are not black and white, I become more tolerant as a person.

[Dave Harbert · Rating 4 out of 5]

He has a way of breaking complex things down into understandable pieces. Really enjoyed the many examples - lots of poker and other card games. He reviews such topics as probability, sampling, stats, std deviation, margin of error...

Thanks, Nathan, for keeping math books (like this one) coming my way!

[Mihai Criveti · Rating 4 out of 5]

A great follow-up book to "How to Lie with Statistics". It takes on more practical matters and has subjects ranging from Brownian motion to time travel and poker.

I truly wish the statistics courses I did back in the university were half this interesting.

[Xenophon Hendrix · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good introduction to probability. Readers who want to go beyond the easiest calculations will need more than this, but there is enough here to keep beginners from making some expensive mistakes.