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352 pages, Paperback
First published October 1, 1993
Psychotherapy works overall in reducing psychologically painful and
often debilitating symptoms. The reasons it works are unclear, because entirely different approaches may work equally well for the same problem or set of problems. Recovery is a base rate phenomenon... we can do little better than by predicting from the overall rate of recovery; we have no insight into exactly why some people get better while others don’t...
We also know that the credentials and experience of the psychotherapists are unrelated to patient outcomes, based on well over five hundred scientific studies of psychotherapy outcome...
psychotherapy works due to “nonspecific effects”... those that result from “the quality of the relationship” between client and therapist. This idea is supported by the finding that good psychotherapists tend to be empathetic, trustworthy, and warm... given that some therapies that are not based on relationship variables (like some behavior modification techniques) are successful, the
interpretation that their success too must be based on some unevaluated quality of relationship remains speculative... The implicit message is that taking up arms against troubles does some good psychologically even if it does not fully “by
opposing end them.” When people enter therapy they are making a choice to deal with their problems rather than simply feel overwhelmed by them.
professional psychologists claim to be able to make predictions about individuals that transcend
predictions about “people in general” or about various categories of people... In no comparison was the clinical prediction superior to the statistical prediction. In predicting academic performance, for example, a simple linear weighting of high school rank and aptitude test scores outperformed the judgments of admissions officers in several colleges. In predicting the success of electroshock therapy, a weighting of marital status, length of psychotic distress, and a rating of the patient’s
“insight” into his or her condition outperformed one hospital’s medical and psychological staff members. In predicting criminal recidivism in several settings, past criminal and prison record outperformed expert criminologists... In one study, Goldberg and Len Rorer even presented professionals with the results of the statistical formula to help them in their judgment, but they did worse than the formula itself... the inability to predict implies a lack of understanding—not because understanding and prediction are synonymous but because a claim to understanding implies an ability to predict. Evaluating the efficacy of psychotherapy has led us to conclude that professional psychologists are no better psychotherapists than anyone else with minimal training—sometimes than those without any training at all; the professionals are merely more expensive. Moreover, in predicting what people will do, clinicians are worse than statistical formulas, and statistical formulas are a lot less expensive