What do you think?
Rate this book
The End of Growth
In an urgent follow-up to his best-selling Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller , Jeff Rubin argues that the end of cheap oil means the end of growth. What it will be like to live in a world where growth is over?
Economist and resource analyst Jeff Rubin is certain that the world's governments are getting it wrong. Instead of moving us toward economic recovery, measures being taken around the globe right now are digging us into a deeper hole. Both politicians and economists are missing the fact that the real engine of economic growth has always been cheap, abundant fuel and resources. But that era is over. The end of cheap oil, Rubin argues, signals the end of growth--and the end of easy answers to renewing prosperity.
Rubin's own equation is with China and India sucking up the lion's share of the world's ever more limited resources, the rest of us will have to make do with less. But is this all bad? Can less actually be more? Rubin points out that there is no research to show that people living in countries with hard-charging economies are happier, and plenty of research to show that some of the most contented people on the planet live in places with no-growth or slow-growth GDPs. But it doesn't matter whether it's bad or good, it's the new our world is not only about to get smaller, our day-to-day lives are about to be a whole lot different.
Economist and resource analyst Jeff Rubin is certain that the world's governments are getting it wrong. Instead of moving us toward economic recovery, measures being taken around the globe right now are digging us into a deeper hole. Both politicians and economists are missing the fact that the real engine of economic growth has always been cheap, abundant fuel and resources. But that era is over. The end of cheap oil, Rubin argues, signals the end of growth--and the end of easy answers to renewing prosperity.
Rubin's own equation is with China and India sucking up the lion's share of the world's ever more limited resources, the rest of us will have to make do with less. But is this all bad? Can less actually be more? Rubin points out that there is no research to show that people living in countries with hard-charging economies are happier, and plenty of research to show that some of the most contented people on the planet live in places with no-growth or slow-growth GDPs. But it doesn't matter whether it's bad or good, it's the new our world is not only about to get smaller, our day-to-day lives are about to be a whole lot different.
304 pages, Hardcover
First published May 8, 2012
28 people are currently reading
471 people want to read
About the author
Jeff Rubin
15 books44 followersLibrarian Note: There is more than one author in the GoodReads database with this name. See this thread for more information.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 30 of 50 reviews
May 22, 2012
Former CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin has followed up his debut bestseller “Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller” with a solid, similarly themed book. Like most best-selling economists, Rubin weaves together facts, economic theory and his own views to tell a compelling story, though his story is quite different than others’.
Rubin begins with the basics, including a brief overview of fiscal and monetary policy, monetarists and Keynesians, and economic growth. That out of the way, he then tells us that today's economic (i.e. deficit financing and easy money) policies are counterproductive because they will lead to soaring debts and rising inflation. With apologies to Rogoff and Reinhart, this time it really is different: the end of cheap oil is behind us; economic growth will stop; and in a static economy, only one half of the debt-to-GDP ratio will be going up -- the wrong half. When growth comes to a standstill, persuading creditors to keep financing government deficits will become a hard sell. Government policies and current lifestyles predicated on economic growth fueled by cheap oil are misdirected and outdated, respectively, and will be forced to change.
Digressing from his central premise a bit, Rubin notes that in countries where another round of bailouts would mean taxpayers become de facto owners of banks, outright nationalization could be the end result. In separate asides, but surprising for a former banker, Rubin agrees that putting investment bankers on civil service salaries might actually bring about the types of reforms needed in the financial services industry, and that if financial institutions are now too big to fail, the solution seems simple: make them smaller.
Back to Rubin’s central theme, with higher energy prices we in the West should get used to smaller homes, less conspicuous consumption, less driving, and more job sharing. Compounding this natural response to higher energy costs is the increasing wealth in developing countries (where all remaining economic growth is coming from), which is increasing their appetite for energy intensive protein (largely beef), automobiles, and other modern conveniences, and fueling even higher global energy prices. In some developing countries increasing food costs (due to energy costs) are outpacing economies’ abilities to generate wealth and causing social unrest such as the recent Arab Spring uprisings.
As befits a book concerned with energy scarcity, Rubin outlines the energy options available to nations, including relevant history and current geopolitical context, and delves into broader environmental issues, including the population and sustainability theories of Malthus and, more recently scientists/authors Paul Ehrlich and James Lovelock. He notes the drawbacks to cap and trade emissions policies and to the Kyoto protocol, delves into how realistic projections for future energy use really are, and ultimately (and optimistically) concludes that economics (diminishing oil use as prices climb) will take care of most of the global warming issue.
The book is well edited with few typographical errors, though one in particular made me smile - on page 68 Rubin refers to cheap “bobbles” shipped from China to developed country markets, which brought to mind the popular bobblehead figures, though he likely meant to use the homonym “baubles”.
Despite its many strengths, there is a central flaw in the book, though. Rubin’s central premise is the link between oil and growth, but he offers no hard data to show cause and effect, or even for that matter correlation. It's just stated as fact. In discussing a decades old wager between Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon, Rubin acknowledges that Ehrlich’s 1960s projection of widespread famine and resource scarcity in the face of increasing population lost out to Simon’s prediction of adaptability, innovation and declining resource prices. Rubin’s book assumes the very adaptability and innovation that proved Ehrlich wrong are now at their limits, and that growth will cease - a very, very tall assumption.
As the former chief economist for a major bank, Rubin is used to delivering both detailed analyses to sophisticated captains of industry and mass market messages to the bank's' rank and file customers. This book is aimed squarely at the mass market. It deserves the undoubtedly wide readership it will garner, though unfortunately what makes the book so accessible - its lack of hard data - is also its major weakness. A thought provoking, optimistic, and very readable book.
Rubin begins with the basics, including a brief overview of fiscal and monetary policy, monetarists and Keynesians, and economic growth. That out of the way, he then tells us that today's economic (i.e. deficit financing and easy money) policies are counterproductive because they will lead to soaring debts and rising inflation. With apologies to Rogoff and Reinhart, this time it really is different: the end of cheap oil is behind us; economic growth will stop; and in a static economy, only one half of the debt-to-GDP ratio will be going up -- the wrong half. When growth comes to a standstill, persuading creditors to keep financing government deficits will become a hard sell. Government policies and current lifestyles predicated on economic growth fueled by cheap oil are misdirected and outdated, respectively, and will be forced to change.
Digressing from his central premise a bit, Rubin notes that in countries where another round of bailouts would mean taxpayers become de facto owners of banks, outright nationalization could be the end result. In separate asides, but surprising for a former banker, Rubin agrees that putting investment bankers on civil service salaries might actually bring about the types of reforms needed in the financial services industry, and that if financial institutions are now too big to fail, the solution seems simple: make them smaller.
Back to Rubin’s central theme, with higher energy prices we in the West should get used to smaller homes, less conspicuous consumption, less driving, and more job sharing. Compounding this natural response to higher energy costs is the increasing wealth in developing countries (where all remaining economic growth is coming from), which is increasing their appetite for energy intensive protein (largely beef), automobiles, and other modern conveniences, and fueling even higher global energy prices. In some developing countries increasing food costs (due to energy costs) are outpacing economies’ abilities to generate wealth and causing social unrest such as the recent Arab Spring uprisings.
As befits a book concerned with energy scarcity, Rubin outlines the energy options available to nations, including relevant history and current geopolitical context, and delves into broader environmental issues, including the population and sustainability theories of Malthus and, more recently scientists/authors Paul Ehrlich and James Lovelock. He notes the drawbacks to cap and trade emissions policies and to the Kyoto protocol, delves into how realistic projections for future energy use really are, and ultimately (and optimistically) concludes that economics (diminishing oil use as prices climb) will take care of most of the global warming issue.
The book is well edited with few typographical errors, though one in particular made me smile - on page 68 Rubin refers to cheap “bobbles” shipped from China to developed country markets, which brought to mind the popular bobblehead figures, though he likely meant to use the homonym “baubles”.
Despite its many strengths, there is a central flaw in the book, though. Rubin’s central premise is the link between oil and growth, but he offers no hard data to show cause and effect, or even for that matter correlation. It's just stated as fact. In discussing a decades old wager between Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon, Rubin acknowledges that Ehrlich’s 1960s projection of widespread famine and resource scarcity in the face of increasing population lost out to Simon’s prediction of adaptability, innovation and declining resource prices. Rubin’s book assumes the very adaptability and innovation that proved Ehrlich wrong are now at their limits, and that growth will cease - a very, very tall assumption.
As the former chief economist for a major bank, Rubin is used to delivering both detailed analyses to sophisticated captains of industry and mass market messages to the bank's' rank and file customers. This book is aimed squarely at the mass market. It deserves the undoubtedly wide readership it will garner, though unfortunately what makes the book so accessible - its lack of hard data - is also its major weakness. A thought provoking, optimistic, and very readable book.
October 10, 2012
Develops further the theme of how the end of cheap oil will impact our lives, first developed in Why Your World is About to Become a Whole Lot Smaller (see earlier post here). While I am always somewhat sceptical about writings about the future, and how they always seem to over extrapolate trends to reinforce their point, it is hard to see how the current recession or depression will be followed by rapid growth again, given the debt overhang and the economic growth and energy pricing dynamic. Again, I think he is being overly mechanistic in this linkage, as have previous doomsday scenarios.
However, it is an important contribution and antidote to so many of the economic and political bromides being tossed around, and the lack of any serious policies and plans for the medium-term. It ends on a philosophical note, reinforcing just how difficult a transition we may be facing:
"Recalibrating expectations for our future lifestyles is a place to start. In a static economy, we’ll have less income growth, which will translate into us owning less stuff. Rather than fighting to retain our current degree of consumption, perhaps we can learn to appreciate what we gain on the other side of the ledger. We’ll buy fewer things, but we’ll also have more time to enjoy our lives. Does anyone really like the rat race? Maybe we all need to slow down and take a minute to breathe. Go for a walk instead of driving to the mall. Ride a bike rather than turning over an engine. Put on a sweater instead of cranking up the thermostat…..
We can still shape the future we want, but only if we’re willing to relinquish the past we’ve known. As the boundaries of a finite world continue to close in on us, our challenge is to learn that making do with less is better than always wanting more."
However, it is an important contribution and antidote to so many of the economic and political bromides being tossed around, and the lack of any serious policies and plans for the medium-term. It ends on a philosophical note, reinforcing just how difficult a transition we may be facing:
"Recalibrating expectations for our future lifestyles is a place to start. In a static economy, we’ll have less income growth, which will translate into us owning less stuff. Rather than fighting to retain our current degree of consumption, perhaps we can learn to appreciate what we gain on the other side of the ledger. We’ll buy fewer things, but we’ll also have more time to enjoy our lives. Does anyone really like the rat race? Maybe we all need to slow down and take a minute to breathe. Go for a walk instead of driving to the mall. Ride a bike rather than turning over an engine. Put on a sweater instead of cranking up the thermostat…..
We can still shape the future we want, but only if we’re willing to relinquish the past we’ve known. As the boundaries of a finite world continue to close in on us, our challenge is to learn that making do with less is better than always wanting more."
November 13, 2012
This is Jeff Rubin's second book on the topic of peak oil. His first book,
Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization
, focused more on the causes of peak oil and some of the implications for global trade. The End of Growth focuses more on the overall economic effects of expensive oil.
The key premise here is that economic growth depends on inexpensive energy provided by oil and other fossil fuels. I found he didn't really explain why this linkage exists; rather, he asserted it as a fact. If you accept that premise, then the rest of the argument, about what happens when we can no longer afford to buy as much oil as we used to, makes sense. Rubin does mention the link between the need for economic growth and population, but like most peak oil authors, glosses over the heart of the problem: too many people. He mentions how educating women is the best way to curb population growth, but offers few suggestions on how to achieve this in the developing world.
The writing is much clearer and easier to read than in his first book. There are a few graphs to illustrate some of the trends he discusses. The book would have benefited from some better explanation of why economic growth is desirable and from more suggestions of how to deal with expensive oil. Keep in mind that predictions are hard, especially about the future. I accept Rubin's argument that the problem is serious - expensive oil will impact the economy. But the impacts will probably differ from Rubin's predictions. And I'm less hopeful than Rubin is that we'll somehow find our way out of this mess without addressing global population.
Ultimately, this book paints a reasonable picture of the situation, but doesn't do enough to point a way forward.
The key premise here is that economic growth depends on inexpensive energy provided by oil and other fossil fuels. I found he didn't really explain why this linkage exists; rather, he asserted it as a fact. If you accept that premise, then the rest of the argument, about what happens when we can no longer afford to buy as much oil as we used to, makes sense. Rubin does mention the link between the need for economic growth and population, but like most peak oil authors, glosses over the heart of the problem: too many people. He mentions how educating women is the best way to curb population growth, but offers few suggestions on how to achieve this in the developing world.
The writing is much clearer and easier to read than in his first book. There are a few graphs to illustrate some of the trends he discusses. The book would have benefited from some better explanation of why economic growth is desirable and from more suggestions of how to deal with expensive oil. Keep in mind that predictions are hard, especially about the future. I accept Rubin's argument that the problem is serious - expensive oil will impact the economy. But the impacts will probably differ from Rubin's predictions. And I'm less hopeful than Rubin is that we'll somehow find our way out of this mess without addressing global population.
Ultimately, this book paints a reasonable picture of the situation, but doesn't do enough to point a way forward.
July 5, 2012
A must read for anyone who has to listen ad nauseum to corporations, especially oil companies and governments droning on about the necessity of growth. They don't mean growth, they mean profit, more and more money going into their bloated coffers, filling up their pockets as they stomp on the other 99%. We have been sold a bill of goods, it was a lie, we need to get over it and move on, not keep believing the lies.
June 12, 2022
A decent and interesting exploration of the (now-retrospective) future of energy prices will affect the global economy. Despite feeling frequently like a reheating of many of the messages in Rubin's Book "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller", I still took a fair amount away from this one, and it reads particularly interesting 10 years after publication, given what we've seen around hardheaded commitments to continued fossil fuel extraction, energy prices, and the specter of recession looming once again.
I do credit Rubin for making the case that economics will prove more of a factor than often considered when it comes to the future decline in fossil fuel use (although, make no mistake, that's no excuse for any government to not at least work on addressing the demand for energy now, as failure to do so will likely only make the change more painful down the road).
Overall, I don't often find myself seriously thinking about fossil fuel use from a new angle, and this book did give me some food for thought, which is always something worth smiling over.
On a personal note, having now read both of Rubin's books on oil, Lloyd Alter's "Living the 1.5 Degree Lifestyle" and Bill McKibben's "Eaarth", the message coming from them is strikingly clear regarding future human consumption levels, and that message is plainly and simply "less".
I do credit Rubin for making the case that economics will prove more of a factor than often considered when it comes to the future decline in fossil fuel use (although, make no mistake, that's no excuse for any government to not at least work on addressing the demand for energy now, as failure to do so will likely only make the change more painful down the road).
Overall, I don't often find myself seriously thinking about fossil fuel use from a new angle, and this book did give me some food for thought, which is always something worth smiling over.
On a personal note, having now read both of Rubin's books on oil, Lloyd Alter's "Living the 1.5 Degree Lifestyle" and Bill McKibben's "Eaarth", the message coming from them is strikingly clear regarding future human consumption levels, and that message is plainly and simply "less".
December 4, 2025
Good book and I like the main principle even though it wasn't a 'fortune teller' book in retrospect. Oil is still cheap and emissions are higher than ever.
September 10, 2012
At one time or another, we've all heard—or even said—that things will get better once the economy picks up again. Recessions have happened in the past and the world has always come out of them with increased economic growth, triggered by various events. Author Jeff Rubin doesn't think we've recovered completely from the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2008 and, what's more, believes that we're on the verge of an even greater recessionary period that will be sparked by the European Union's debt situation. And this time, he states, the global economy is never going back to the way it was.
In his book, The End of Growth, Rubin reasons that the underlying drive for economic growth that's been hardwired into the minds of every modern financial player on earth was supported by a condition that no longer applies: the existence of cheap, accessible oil. The last recession was caused because interest rates were hiked to offset energy inflation, which in turn led thousands and thousands of homeowners to default on mortgage payments. Now, Rubin argues that the same rising energy prices are the real problem that is holding back the recovery of the housing market, as well as threatening to crush the global economy with another, even more serious recession.
Very simply stated, Rubin's point is that the energy we've relied on in the past is no longer cheap or easily accessible. It has become too expensive to sustain our present practices. And that means an end to the traditional idea of economic growth. Growth has been the 'Holy Grail' of modern society, either directly or indirectly motivating the activities of every working individual who contributes to his or her national economy.
The increasing scarcity of energy resources and the difficulties with which they are extracted are the reasons we're now going to the ends of the earth to exploit those reserves or are engaging in expensive refining processes to get at unconventional sources. We have come to a point where the demand is greater than our ability to provide an affordable supply. The emergence of new economic players such as China and India mean that the situation is only going to become more critical. Rubin admits that we may not run out of oil, natural gas or coal completely, but qualifies this acknowledgement by saying that the cost of obtaining them is going to mean that citizens of most nations will no longer be able to afford the fossil-fuel-based lifestyles they have come to enjoy.
Rubin includes a few examples of adaptations that are already being incorporated by several countries in the face of this new economic reality. The Danish have embraced a much less carbon-centric existence because of their government's use of cost deterrents. The Japanese have embarked on a policy of setsuden, or electricity conservation. And the Germans have begun to use job-sharing to cushion the impact of an economic downturn.
Despite the stark message Rubin is sending about the end of the global economy as we know it, he does leave the reader with some hope that a satisfying and sustainable future is possible so long as we are willing to shift our attitudes and change our behaviour to embrace more sustainable economic activity in the future.
March 11, 2013
The basic premise is that economic growth is tied to the cost of energy. I am not convinced it is that simple, there are certainly other factors in play. The author suggests that the economic stimulus that several of the western will not be effective, and there is little option after this for these countries after this, and the fundamental issue is the cost of energy. There was an interesting chapter about Denmark where the cost of energy has reduced the consumption levels. Another interesting commentary is the direction several countries are going - post Tsunami nuclear disaster in Japan. He presents the argument - that this is the wrong time for countries to be taking on major debt loads (I tend to agree) I cannot help but think about the recent Alberta budget, and the announcement to take on a bunch of debt, with the glut of oil, below market cost being the reason for the short fall. Another situation i cannot help but think about is the fact that we blew it in the past with the Heritage Fund. Norway took notice of this and established something similar. They will soon be at 1 Trillion in the bank. The Heritage fund was established in 1976, looted in the 90's and ignored since. I think of the fable about the ants and the grasshopper here. maybe something still can be done, I hope our provincial leaders clue into the fact that this is a non renewable resource and leave a legacy (The Heritage Fund) For generations to come. It's about royalties. The resource is not going anywhere. See what Statoil and Norway have done - if we need an example/
June 11, 2013
A very thought provoking read. While a lot of the concepts in the book have entered my thoughts at times through other avenues, this book has the facts to back them up and connect them all. Ever wondered how our economies can continue to succeed if success is based on growth yet the world's resources are finite? Ever wondered if most wars are really about oil? Ever felt guilty that the wealth of western nations has been built on the backs of the world's poor? If yes, this may be the book for you. There is a glimmer of optimism near the end of this book (hence the subtitle), but overall it paints a bleak picture. I would say I am more fearful now than I was prior to reading that, within our lifetimes, our world will experience massive upheaval and probably billions of people will die due to famine and war. I don't think the author says that in so many words, but that was my conclusion. So yes, a tough pill, but definitely worth a read. It made me question some of my political beliefs and gave me lots of additional things to ponder. I feel less confident that I have any of the answers now, yet overall I feel more knowledgable about how the world works.
May 13, 2015
In this excellent book, Rubin explains why we aren't in the middle of an "anemic" economic recovery, but rather, are at the beginning of a static economy. Rubin's thesis is based on the idea that economic growth is based on the consumption of cheap energy, aka $20/barrel oil. After explaining why the era of cheap oil is behind us and why nuclear, coal, gas and renewables will not "become the next oil", we are left with a world with a much slower economic speed limit. The second half of the book explores what this might look like, and most interestingly, why it could offer many positive changes to our thoroughly globalized world.
I would highly recommend this book to anyone interested in current events and environmentalism. The conversational tone makes this book very easy to read. I found The End of Growth to be very interesting and not at all depressing or dry. Rubin, as the former chief economist for CIBC has some interesting insights into the global economy and what our future might hold.
I would highly recommend this book to anyone interested in current events and environmentalism. The conversational tone makes this book very easy to read. I found The End of Growth to be very interesting and not at all depressing or dry. Rubin, as the former chief economist for CIBC has some interesting insights into the global economy and what our future might hold.
March 1, 2025
Economic Solution to Climate Change? The End of Cheap Fossil Fuel
The end of growth is something which is desirable in the eyes of environmentalists. The unlimited growth motivated by greedy nature of capitalism is exploiting the nature, destroying biodiversity and causing the sixth great extinction in the Anthropocene. The solution suggested by environmentalists is to initiate a paradigm shift in the mindset of the public and question the fundamental nature of growth. Do we actually need those material wealth? Is the life before capitalism really poor and miserable? Marshall Sahlins raised a counter example in The Original Affluent Society by making reference to Bushmen in Kalahari, Yahgan in Tierra del Fuego, and Australian Aboriginal, in order to suggest that the idea of poverty “is not a certain small amount of goods, nor is it just a relation between means and ends; above all it is a relation between people. Poverty is a social status” (The Original Affluent Society). If we can seriously contemplate what is truly necessary to us in our lives, growth may have a much lower priority and then we can also reduce our impacts to the environment.
However, economist Jeff Rubin raised an interesting but different idea in this book. The end of growth may not come from wider spread of concerns on environment or climate change. It may instead be driven by the loss of growth engine – i.e. cheap energy. It has been more than 250 years since industrial revolution, where we are using fossil fuels to boost up human productivity. A person can perform more in modern time than in pre-industrial era by making use of technology, but no modern technology can operate without external energy input. In another word, the improvement of productivity is “purchased” using energy as a medium of exchange, and the economic question becomes what is the cheapest way to purchase the productivity. Before the discovery of fossil fuel, we very often have to rely on human effort to solve problem because the alternative energy input is costly. For example, watermill is surely a very useful way in flour grinding which saves a lot of human effort, but such energy input (from hydropower) is only “cheap” if the production could be performed near a river and when there is sufficient waterflow in the right season. Human (or horse / donkeys), then remains the cheaper source of power to grind flour, which is why the productivity per capita cannot be substantially increased.
The situation changes when fossil fuels as an energy source become widely available. It makes sense to switch the energy source from human and animal to fossil fuels because the latter can come at a much lower cost. And the growth of economy, measured by productivity and population increase, is supported by such energy input which is relatively abundant and readily available for use. However, the current economic structure may undergo a fundamental change either if a) there appears an energy source which is cheaper than fossil fuel or b) the price of fossil fuel becomes much higher such that it is more expensive than the next available energy source, which could be solar or wind or other renewable energy, though in some cases the only alternative is human effort. Surely, what Rubin tried to articulate is the possibility of scenario (b). Growth, will become scarce again in such a scenario.
Being an economist, Rubin laid out a number of arguments in this book on why fossil fuel will not be cheap anymore. We incline to think that fossil fuel is abundant, if not in our own countries, at least it is the case in Middle East. And no matter what is the official reason provided by the US government, the military actions taken against Iraq and Iran must have considered the implication on oil supply. However, if the only consideration is economic benefits, it is very rare the case that any regime change could improve the oil supply. In the case of military invasion, local population would likely respond by forming guerillas and oil facilities will definitely be one of the major targets, which is large and easy to cause disruption. In the other case of peaceful transition to a relatively democratic government, even if the bureaucratic functions remain intact, it is still unlikely that the supply would be increased which will only suppress the oil price and reduce the long-term benefit. Hence there is not much external forces which could be applied to keep the oil price low, if in reality such energy sources are universally demanded by every country to sustain economic growth.
Based on simple supply-demand relationship, the price of oil and other fossil fuels will only go higher and higher when those easy-to-reach reserves are exhausted and the extraction processes become more difficult. The high price of energy will then deter the growth and force us to reduce our demand on all kinds of consumption goods. Maybe that is one of the best futures we can embrace, though I doubt whether we can just bet on such a scenario and stop advocating for initiatives to stop climate change. This economic view also ignores environmental justice where we shall rebuild the connection between human and non-human animals as well as the nature. Without a change of mindset, human will continue to exploit everything available on the Earth, if not by climate change, just by other means.
Note: This is a book title discussed in North York Reading Group before. If you are interested, you can also join the FB page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/17435...
The end of growth is something which is desirable in the eyes of environmentalists. The unlimited growth motivated by greedy nature of capitalism is exploiting the nature, destroying biodiversity and causing the sixth great extinction in the Anthropocene. The solution suggested by environmentalists is to initiate a paradigm shift in the mindset of the public and question the fundamental nature of growth. Do we actually need those material wealth? Is the life before capitalism really poor and miserable? Marshall Sahlins raised a counter example in The Original Affluent Society by making reference to Bushmen in Kalahari, Yahgan in Tierra del Fuego, and Australian Aboriginal, in order to suggest that the idea of poverty “is not a certain small amount of goods, nor is it just a relation between means and ends; above all it is a relation between people. Poverty is a social status” (The Original Affluent Society). If we can seriously contemplate what is truly necessary to us in our lives, growth may have a much lower priority and then we can also reduce our impacts to the environment.
However, economist Jeff Rubin raised an interesting but different idea in this book. The end of growth may not come from wider spread of concerns on environment or climate change. It may instead be driven by the loss of growth engine – i.e. cheap energy. It has been more than 250 years since industrial revolution, where we are using fossil fuels to boost up human productivity. A person can perform more in modern time than in pre-industrial era by making use of technology, but no modern technology can operate without external energy input. In another word, the improvement of productivity is “purchased” using energy as a medium of exchange, and the economic question becomes what is the cheapest way to purchase the productivity. Before the discovery of fossil fuel, we very often have to rely on human effort to solve problem because the alternative energy input is costly. For example, watermill is surely a very useful way in flour grinding which saves a lot of human effort, but such energy input (from hydropower) is only “cheap” if the production could be performed near a river and when there is sufficient waterflow in the right season. Human (or horse / donkeys), then remains the cheaper source of power to grind flour, which is why the productivity per capita cannot be substantially increased.
The situation changes when fossil fuels as an energy source become widely available. It makes sense to switch the energy source from human and animal to fossil fuels because the latter can come at a much lower cost. And the growth of economy, measured by productivity and population increase, is supported by such energy input which is relatively abundant and readily available for use. However, the current economic structure may undergo a fundamental change either if a) there appears an energy source which is cheaper than fossil fuel or b) the price of fossil fuel becomes much higher such that it is more expensive than the next available energy source, which could be solar or wind or other renewable energy, though in some cases the only alternative is human effort. Surely, what Rubin tried to articulate is the possibility of scenario (b). Growth, will become scarce again in such a scenario.
Being an economist, Rubin laid out a number of arguments in this book on why fossil fuel will not be cheap anymore. We incline to think that fossil fuel is abundant, if not in our own countries, at least it is the case in Middle East. And no matter what is the official reason provided by the US government, the military actions taken against Iraq and Iran must have considered the implication on oil supply. However, if the only consideration is economic benefits, it is very rare the case that any regime change could improve the oil supply. In the case of military invasion, local population would likely respond by forming guerillas and oil facilities will definitely be one of the major targets, which is large and easy to cause disruption. In the other case of peaceful transition to a relatively democratic government, even if the bureaucratic functions remain intact, it is still unlikely that the supply would be increased which will only suppress the oil price and reduce the long-term benefit. Hence there is not much external forces which could be applied to keep the oil price low, if in reality such energy sources are universally demanded by every country to sustain economic growth.
Based on simple supply-demand relationship, the price of oil and other fossil fuels will only go higher and higher when those easy-to-reach reserves are exhausted and the extraction processes become more difficult. The high price of energy will then deter the growth and force us to reduce our demand on all kinds of consumption goods. Maybe that is one of the best futures we can embrace, though I doubt whether we can just bet on such a scenario and stop advocating for initiatives to stop climate change. This economic view also ignores environmental justice where we shall rebuild the connection between human and non-human animals as well as the nature. Without a change of mindset, human will continue to exploit everything available on the Earth, if not by climate change, just by other means.
Note: This is a book title discussed in North York Reading Group before. If you are interested, you can also join the FB page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/17435...
June 27, 2020
Great introduction to fiscal and monetary policy in the last decade. Former economist at CIBC, Rubin outlines multiple theses as to how to combat energy scarcity in the future through the capital markets.
December 26, 2012
In all of my popular economics reading, the unstated assumption of perpetual growth felt improbable. Rubin's book presents an intuitive, logical explanation of a more likely evolution.
January 16, 2025
“The End of Growth” by Jeff Rubin covers the significance and control of oil everywhere, from our day-to-day lives to the global economy. Rubin describes oil as a catalyst that dictates economic growth in every country and how desperate countries are for command over this resource. Furthermore, Rubin proposes that oil is the underlying cause of many events and decisions that have happened in the past and now, linking oil to events like the Great Recession of 2007-2008 and sharing alternatives countries seek, mistakes, and events that are fluctuating our economic future.
I would describe this book as daring and advantageous. Rubin’s take on the global economy, solutions to fix such problems, and predictions of our future with energy are extremely daring and anomalous compared to the many governments and leaders of global energy organizations despite concrete evidence and proof that they have failed to see. Additionally, the book goes over the many attempts to advantageously progress through the world’s current economic issues and move past an era of oil. Something I learned was just how significant a role energy will have in our futures, especially mine. I found it disturbing that by my age, gas might quadruple what I can afford and how much influence energy (especially oil) has over our global economy and other sectors.
Something I enjoyed the most in this book was how Rubin connected all the dots. He always backed up what he was saying and linked all of his points back to previous pieces of evidence creating a full circle. For example, he linked the Great Recession of 2007-2009 with what most people thought was the American housing market crash but provided evidence that an increasing price of oil caused it to have an increased demand, which resulted in housing inflating.
This book’s main implication to us is to see all these potentially world-ending events, think deeply about our future but hold hope for what's to come. Rubin makes a point that although there have been catastrophes in the past like several recessions, food crises, and more, humans have still managed to persevere and thrive. He notes that enjoying our world as it is now, and even the smallest decisions you make contribute to our humanity's continuous push for a greater world. Rubin wants our generation to learn and build from the mistakes and greed of current leaders as he believes this generation has more potential for greatness than he did. Another hidden implication is to enjoy nature’s beauty while it lasts. Our world is changing, especially environmentally. Rubin uses him taking his son fishing to Princess Royal Island as an example. He says, “Jack and I are happy that we made it to Princess Royal Island when we did,” and talks highly of getting to experience such natural beauty with his son before a nearby pipeline could destroy it.
I highly recommend this book for readers interested in finance and history, as the book covers a variety of historical events and how they are connected to the intricate financial system of today. However, it is also a great read for any young person trying to move up in the world or start a business. This book may not have been my cup of tea, but it grew on me as I read through it. The complicated and detrimental state of our global economy is now somewhat understandable for a younger reader like me and allowed me to comprehend new sustainable methods that could potentially lead us to a greener and cheaper future. As Rubin said, “Making do with less is better than always wanting more,” is a quote we must live by when making a more efficient, collaborative, sustainable, and above all maintaining our beautiful world.
I would describe this book as daring and advantageous. Rubin’s take on the global economy, solutions to fix such problems, and predictions of our future with energy are extremely daring and anomalous compared to the many governments and leaders of global energy organizations despite concrete evidence and proof that they have failed to see. Additionally, the book goes over the many attempts to advantageously progress through the world’s current economic issues and move past an era of oil. Something I learned was just how significant a role energy will have in our futures, especially mine. I found it disturbing that by my age, gas might quadruple what I can afford and how much influence energy (especially oil) has over our global economy and other sectors.
Something I enjoyed the most in this book was how Rubin connected all the dots. He always backed up what he was saying and linked all of his points back to previous pieces of evidence creating a full circle. For example, he linked the Great Recession of 2007-2009 with what most people thought was the American housing market crash but provided evidence that an increasing price of oil caused it to have an increased demand, which resulted in housing inflating.
This book’s main implication to us is to see all these potentially world-ending events, think deeply about our future but hold hope for what's to come. Rubin makes a point that although there have been catastrophes in the past like several recessions, food crises, and more, humans have still managed to persevere and thrive. He notes that enjoying our world as it is now, and even the smallest decisions you make contribute to our humanity's continuous push for a greater world. Rubin wants our generation to learn and build from the mistakes and greed of current leaders as he believes this generation has more potential for greatness than he did. Another hidden implication is to enjoy nature’s beauty while it lasts. Our world is changing, especially environmentally. Rubin uses him taking his son fishing to Princess Royal Island as an example. He says, “Jack and I are happy that we made it to Princess Royal Island when we did,” and talks highly of getting to experience such natural beauty with his son before a nearby pipeline could destroy it.
I highly recommend this book for readers interested in finance and history, as the book covers a variety of historical events and how they are connected to the intricate financial system of today. However, it is also a great read for any young person trying to move up in the world or start a business. This book may not have been my cup of tea, but it grew on me as I read through it. The complicated and detrimental state of our global economy is now somewhat understandable for a younger reader like me and allowed me to comprehend new sustainable methods that could potentially lead us to a greener and cheaper future. As Rubin said, “Making do with less is better than always wanting more,” is a quote we must live by when making a more efficient, collaborative, sustainable, and above all maintaining our beautiful world.
February 25, 2024
This book was on my TBR list as I thought that it had to do with Climate Change. Well, it has to do with Climate Change, but has more to do with economics. Now, you may say that Climate Change and economics are intertwined and yes, they are, but this book deals with the growth of the economy and the fuel markets, while the effect of the soaring use of fossil fuels on the climate is relegated to the background. Nevertheless, I learned about like quantitative easing, China’s investment into the US treasury bonds, reasons for the 2008 recession, and Greece’s bailout by other strong economies of the EU. However, the book per se cannot be positioned as one on Climate Change. The recommendation by David Suzuki on the cover page aptly insinuates that it is not, “One of Canada’s most respected Economic thinkers”.
The author, Jeff Rubin, published this book in 2012 and since then much has changed in the scenario for Climate Change, though it’s a mixed bag of developments in this area. One of the recommendations by the author is increasing the fuel cost in order to bring down usage rather than to tax the carbon release and spend billions of dollars in technologies such as CCS. He cites the example of Europe where fuel at the time cost $ 7 a gallon and this entailed use of more efficient vehicles. The argument is correct partially. If the subsidies that the governments provide to the fossil fuels are reduced, they would encourage the efficient use of the commodity, however, there is need for innovative technologies in curbing Climate Change.
He had a talk with Mr. David Suzuki, who thinks, “world must act together on climate change because we have no other choice; the consequences of not taking steps to mitigate the burning of fossil fuels are so terrible as to be nearly inconceivable.” However, Jeff Rubin thinks that it will be the markets and the economies that will decide on how much the hydrocarbons we will burn. What the author is missing in his thought process is the idea of innovation. As new technologies are being developed and tested and the green premium is coming down, it is a possibility that the use of hydrocarbons may be reduced significantly than what is in the current scenario.
Let’s be hopeful that we can take on the challenge of Climate Change and will come out victorious. I give the book 3 stars.
The author, Jeff Rubin, published this book in 2012 and since then much has changed in the scenario for Climate Change, though it’s a mixed bag of developments in this area. One of the recommendations by the author is increasing the fuel cost in order to bring down usage rather than to tax the carbon release and spend billions of dollars in technologies such as CCS. He cites the example of Europe where fuel at the time cost $ 7 a gallon and this entailed use of more efficient vehicles. The argument is correct partially. If the subsidies that the governments provide to the fossil fuels are reduced, they would encourage the efficient use of the commodity, however, there is need for innovative technologies in curbing Climate Change.
He had a talk with Mr. David Suzuki, who thinks, “world must act together on climate change because we have no other choice; the consequences of not taking steps to mitigate the burning of fossil fuels are so terrible as to be nearly inconceivable.” However, Jeff Rubin thinks that it will be the markets and the economies that will decide on how much the hydrocarbons we will burn. What the author is missing in his thought process is the idea of innovation. As new technologies are being developed and tested and the green premium is coming down, it is a possibility that the use of hydrocarbons may be reduced significantly than what is in the current scenario.
Let’s be hopeful that we can take on the challenge of Climate Change and will come out victorious. I give the book 3 stars.
April 9, 2024
A really good read, One of my all time favorites. The author points out facts about oil consumption, global warming and GDP growth that revolutionized the way I think about each of these. Will defiantly be reading his other books!!
Second time reading this book and despite it being published in 2012, much of what Jeff Rubin says still holds true. Jeff has a great way of presenting financial, environmental consequences of high oil prices.
“The modern world counts on economic growth to support population expansion, as well as satisfy the desire for higher incomes and all the extra things money can buy. Our countries need GDP growth to repay debt acquired during the last oil-price induced recession, but achieving that growth will bring back the same high prices that killed growth in the first place.”
“If you are from the University of Chicago, once home to the high priest of laissez-faire economics, Milton Friedman, you believe that a pause in economic growth, such as a recession, is a temporary event. Leave the market alone to do its work and the economy will get back on track.”
To free market acolytes, an issue like rising joblessness isn’t a problem so much as a hiccup. High unemployment rates force workers to lower wage demands until it becomes profitable for someone to hire them. It is the market (and certainly not tax-and-spend liberals in government) that will get an economy growing again, the thinking goes.”
“If you are from the Keynesian school of thought made famous at Cambridge University, you believe that recessions are remedied through government intervention. He advocates even more government spending on new public works projects, such as bridges, highways and tunnels. Another path favored by Keynesians is slashing interest rates to encourage borrowing, which will lead to spending that will revive the national economy. Without such interventionist steps, Keynesian economists believe a recession can deepen into a long period of painful contraction, like the Great Depression of the 1930s.”
“Whether you are a free-market type or you believe in government intervention, your common ground with most economists is an unswerving belief in growth as the panacea of all economic ills.”
“Since the Second World War, the global economy has been in a recession only 20 percent of the time.”
“Quantitative Easing – A fancy way of saying the Fed is finding way to pour as much new money into the system as it can. Under this program of quantitative easing, the Fed is buying longer-term government bonds in an attempt to inject new life into the economy. By buying up US Treasury bonds, the Fed is trying to bring down long-term interest rates. A lower rate of return on long-term government bonds, considered a relatively safe haven in times of financial uncertainty, makes other investments more attractive by comparison. Investors typically park huge sums of cash in long-term US bonds in an attempt to ride out a financial storm. By lowering the returns on those bonds, the Fed is trying to steer money into other parts of the financial system where it can do more good for the economy.”
“By engineering a more modest return on government bonds, the Fed is also trying to curb the giant appetite for US dollars among global bond investors. A decreased demand for US greenbacks naturally leads to a weaker currency, which is a boon for the country’s export sector.”
“Triple digit oil prices turn the sovereign debt market into something resembling a giant Ponzi scheme. The investors who are buying the bonds that allow governments to roll over the debt amassing in the financial system are essentially making larger and larger bets on future economic growth. But as oil process climb higher, the prospects for that growth become ever more tenuous. It is like doubling down just as the odds are turning against you.”
“If China wakes up one day and decides to stop lending to the United States, the world’s largest economy could soon join the PIIGS. The Peoples Bank of China buys US Treasury bonds to help keep its currency from rising against the US dollar. China’s demand for treasuries is tantamount to a demand for US currency. Globalization allowed for a mutual dependence to develop between America and China. American consumers have dined on cheap labour from China for years. Meanwhile, China’s central bank has cycled the savings of these same workers into US treasuries, an investment that allows Americans to keep buying Chinese goods.”
“Printing more money to lower the value of your currency may not technically be called a default. But if something walks like a duck and quack likes a duck, does it really matter what it is called.”
“History suggests that rising unemployment in any country results in tighter boarder restrictions. A crackdown on immigration goes hand in hand with slower economic growth.”
“Private sector companies pay workers less to do the same jobs as government employees. That is what allows the private sector to provide services cheaper than government. And that holds true for everything from office workers to garbage collectors. When dollars need to be slashed from the budget every year, saving on wages can be the difference between offering a service and going without. While most of us don’t want to fire civil servants per se, many folks would wield the ax themselves of the alternative was losing service altogether.”
“A similar trend is evident in Canada. According to the University of Waterloo’s Canadian Index of Wellbeing, increases in GDP haven’t resulted in commensurate gains in life satisfaction. Since 1994, the sense of well-being among Canadians has only improved at about a third of the rate of the country’s economic growth. This type of spending is driven by a need to demonstrate social status. Instead of buying stuff you really want, you buy to keep up with the Joneses.”
“Energy has never been in higher demand that it is in today’s world of commercial farming. The quantum leaps made in agriculture productivity in the post war era were achieved by channeling greater amounts of energy into food production. Farming is now extremely energy intensive, whether the power is diesel for tractors, fertilizer for crops or electricity to run irrigation systems. The more hydrocarbons we burn, the more carbohydrates we can grow. But there are other consequences to that equation: higher energy prices flow directly into higher food prices.”
“The pace at which our economies grow is far more important to the level of future emissions than any government-mandated carbon reduction schemes.”
“Soring prices indicate scarcity. And if carbon-emitting fuels are getting scarce, how does that change the outlook for growth in carbon emissions and the nature of the climate change debate? Those are the questions policymakers need to ask before charging ahead with financially punitive plans for carbon abatement.”
Second time reading this book and despite it being published in 2012, much of what Jeff Rubin says still holds true. Jeff has a great way of presenting financial, environmental consequences of high oil prices.
“The modern world counts on economic growth to support population expansion, as well as satisfy the desire for higher incomes and all the extra things money can buy. Our countries need GDP growth to repay debt acquired during the last oil-price induced recession, but achieving that growth will bring back the same high prices that killed growth in the first place.”
“If you are from the University of Chicago, once home to the high priest of laissez-faire economics, Milton Friedman, you believe that a pause in economic growth, such as a recession, is a temporary event. Leave the market alone to do its work and the economy will get back on track.”
To free market acolytes, an issue like rising joblessness isn’t a problem so much as a hiccup. High unemployment rates force workers to lower wage demands until it becomes profitable for someone to hire them. It is the market (and certainly not tax-and-spend liberals in government) that will get an economy growing again, the thinking goes.”
“If you are from the Keynesian school of thought made famous at Cambridge University, you believe that recessions are remedied through government intervention. He advocates even more government spending on new public works projects, such as bridges, highways and tunnels. Another path favored by Keynesians is slashing interest rates to encourage borrowing, which will lead to spending that will revive the national economy. Without such interventionist steps, Keynesian economists believe a recession can deepen into a long period of painful contraction, like the Great Depression of the 1930s.”
“Whether you are a free-market type or you believe in government intervention, your common ground with most economists is an unswerving belief in growth as the panacea of all economic ills.”
“Since the Second World War, the global economy has been in a recession only 20 percent of the time.”
“Quantitative Easing – A fancy way of saying the Fed is finding way to pour as much new money into the system as it can. Under this program of quantitative easing, the Fed is buying longer-term government bonds in an attempt to inject new life into the economy. By buying up US Treasury bonds, the Fed is trying to bring down long-term interest rates. A lower rate of return on long-term government bonds, considered a relatively safe haven in times of financial uncertainty, makes other investments more attractive by comparison. Investors typically park huge sums of cash in long-term US bonds in an attempt to ride out a financial storm. By lowering the returns on those bonds, the Fed is trying to steer money into other parts of the financial system where it can do more good for the economy.”
“By engineering a more modest return on government bonds, the Fed is also trying to curb the giant appetite for US dollars among global bond investors. A decreased demand for US greenbacks naturally leads to a weaker currency, which is a boon for the country’s export sector.”
“Triple digit oil prices turn the sovereign debt market into something resembling a giant Ponzi scheme. The investors who are buying the bonds that allow governments to roll over the debt amassing in the financial system are essentially making larger and larger bets on future economic growth. But as oil process climb higher, the prospects for that growth become ever more tenuous. It is like doubling down just as the odds are turning against you.”
“If China wakes up one day and decides to stop lending to the United States, the world’s largest economy could soon join the PIIGS. The Peoples Bank of China buys US Treasury bonds to help keep its currency from rising against the US dollar. China’s demand for treasuries is tantamount to a demand for US currency. Globalization allowed for a mutual dependence to develop between America and China. American consumers have dined on cheap labour from China for years. Meanwhile, China’s central bank has cycled the savings of these same workers into US treasuries, an investment that allows Americans to keep buying Chinese goods.”
“Printing more money to lower the value of your currency may not technically be called a default. But if something walks like a duck and quack likes a duck, does it really matter what it is called.”
“History suggests that rising unemployment in any country results in tighter boarder restrictions. A crackdown on immigration goes hand in hand with slower economic growth.”
“Private sector companies pay workers less to do the same jobs as government employees. That is what allows the private sector to provide services cheaper than government. And that holds true for everything from office workers to garbage collectors. When dollars need to be slashed from the budget every year, saving on wages can be the difference between offering a service and going without. While most of us don’t want to fire civil servants per se, many folks would wield the ax themselves of the alternative was losing service altogether.”
“A similar trend is evident in Canada. According to the University of Waterloo’s Canadian Index of Wellbeing, increases in GDP haven’t resulted in commensurate gains in life satisfaction. Since 1994, the sense of well-being among Canadians has only improved at about a third of the rate of the country’s economic growth. This type of spending is driven by a need to demonstrate social status. Instead of buying stuff you really want, you buy to keep up with the Joneses.”
“Energy has never been in higher demand that it is in today’s world of commercial farming. The quantum leaps made in agriculture productivity in the post war era were achieved by channeling greater amounts of energy into food production. Farming is now extremely energy intensive, whether the power is diesel for tractors, fertilizer for crops or electricity to run irrigation systems. The more hydrocarbons we burn, the more carbohydrates we can grow. But there are other consequences to that equation: higher energy prices flow directly into higher food prices.”
“The pace at which our economies grow is far more important to the level of future emissions than any government-mandated carbon reduction schemes.”
“Soring prices indicate scarcity. And if carbon-emitting fuels are getting scarce, how does that change the outlook for growth in carbon emissions and the nature of the climate change debate? Those are the questions policymakers need to ask before charging ahead with financially punitive plans for carbon abatement.”
August 5, 2022
Very good look at what high oil and coal prices will do to economic growth. The book is from 2012, though, and desperately needs updating.
August 8, 2016
In hindsight, I downgraded my rating at least in the medium term as I believe that Jeff Rubin's prediction concerning the end of oil is off target. He did not foresee the shale gas revolution as Peter Zeihan covered in the 'Accidental Superpower' as well as efficiency advancements and an overall reduced demand for oil. That is not to say that his predictions will never come true. My original review is included below:
In his second book, Jeff Rubin again makes a strong case that "triple-digit oil prices, record budget deficits and potentially catastrophic levels of carbon in the atmosphere are telling us the same thing: endless economic growth is unsustainable" (Pg. 254). His unconventional approach of explaining the world's economic situation, neither supports the Keynesian school of thought such as those of renowned economists by the likes Paul Krugman nor Laissez-faire ones such as Milton Friedman. Jeff Rubin further states that, "no matter what stimulus measures are put in place, we can't make our economies grow at the rates they used to, because the energy that drives them now costs fives times as much as it did only a decade ago." Despite the relatively low Brent crude oil prices compared to the summer of 2008 prior to Lehman Brothers collapse, it is a strong argument that oil prices are "only a messenger; the real issue is the underlying scarcity they signal" (Pg. 255). As the former Chief Economist of a major Canadian Bank, the author has the right long-term vision of how economies must be reformed. However, in the current unstable state of the world economy, I am more convinced that government stimulus is the proper measure which nations and central banks must implement now as advised by Paul Krugman (End this Depression Now). True, in the long-term spending must be reduced and citizens all over the globe will have to use less energy and rely more on public transportation. The immediate threat to the stability of the world economy can not be underestimated, however. Politicians and central bankers must act immediately as one major central bank finally acknowledged this day on July 5, 2012, by lowering the interest rates. I conclude by referring to a quote from John M. Keynes which Dr. Krugman frequently refers to in the New York Times: "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."
In his second book, Jeff Rubin again makes a strong case that "triple-digit oil prices, record budget deficits and potentially catastrophic levels of carbon in the atmosphere are telling us the same thing: endless economic growth is unsustainable" (Pg. 254). His unconventional approach of explaining the world's economic situation, neither supports the Keynesian school of thought such as those of renowned economists by the likes Paul Krugman nor Laissez-faire ones such as Milton Friedman. Jeff Rubin further states that, "no matter what stimulus measures are put in place, we can't make our economies grow at the rates they used to, because the energy that drives them now costs fives times as much as it did only a decade ago." Despite the relatively low Brent crude oil prices compared to the summer of 2008 prior to Lehman Brothers collapse, it is a strong argument that oil prices are "only a messenger; the real issue is the underlying scarcity they signal" (Pg. 255). As the former Chief Economist of a major Canadian Bank, the author has the right long-term vision of how economies must be reformed. However, in the current unstable state of the world economy, I am more convinced that government stimulus is the proper measure which nations and central banks must implement now as advised by Paul Krugman (End this Depression Now). True, in the long-term spending must be reduced and citizens all over the globe will have to use less energy and rely more on public transportation. The immediate threat to the stability of the world economy can not be underestimated, however. Politicians and central bankers must act immediately as one major central bank finally acknowledged this day on July 5, 2012, by lowering the interest rates. I conclude by referring to a quote from John M. Keynes which Dr. Krugman frequently refers to in the New York Times: "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."
December 24, 2012
Mayan predicted December 21, 2012 to be the end of the world. They were not the first to herald apocalypse. According to wikipedia there are 150 predictions of the end of the world prior to the Mayan's. Some predict a clash of Earth with obscure objects in the milky-way will end it all others predict that there will be a nuclear war. Despite radically different ways each predict the world will end, there is one common theme: life on Earth as we know it today will dramatically change. Thankfully none of these predictions have rung true.
But, we cannot deny the gradual shift that has been happening over the past two decades in the world. The world reached its 7 billionth inhabitant in 2011. How can the definite resources sustain the indefinite growth?
Jeff Rubin's The End of Growth explains the changes in the context of oil possession, consumption and acquisition. The appetite for oil has been on the rise and so has its price, from $20 a barrel to $120, the oil price have been steadily rising. Rubin argues the world's dependency on oil is at the root of most political unrest, long term wars and foreign interventions in domestic politics of oil rich countries. While we can control the amount of energy we consume or conserve, we tend to see most governments to shift towards consumption of energy. But, reducing the oil consumption is not an impossible tasks. Rubin talks about how Danes curbed their appetite for oil and the consequence of that is "rosy-cheeked, good-looking Danes peddling around he city". What Danes have done is they have shown to the world that it is possible to reduce the dependency on oil and still have a healthy, prosper society.
Although the book looks at issues concerning energy and economic growth at the macro level, it also provokes readers to think about their own energy footprint. I for one know that I will be buying more local food, use more public transportation, and ride my bike more often.
The only thing I wish the book had more of is Canadian content. There is only one chapter, "Keystone Conundrum", on the situation of connecting the oil in Alberta to refineries.
But, we cannot deny the gradual shift that has been happening over the past two decades in the world. The world reached its 7 billionth inhabitant in 2011. How can the definite resources sustain the indefinite growth?
Jeff Rubin's The End of Growth explains the changes in the context of oil possession, consumption and acquisition. The appetite for oil has been on the rise and so has its price, from $20 a barrel to $120, the oil price have been steadily rising. Rubin argues the world's dependency on oil is at the root of most political unrest, long term wars and foreign interventions in domestic politics of oil rich countries. While we can control the amount of energy we consume or conserve, we tend to see most governments to shift towards consumption of energy. But, reducing the oil consumption is not an impossible tasks. Rubin talks about how Danes curbed their appetite for oil and the consequence of that is "rosy-cheeked, good-looking Danes peddling around he city". What Danes have done is they have shown to the world that it is possible to reduce the dependency on oil and still have a healthy, prosper society.
Although the book looks at issues concerning energy and economic growth at the macro level, it also provokes readers to think about their own energy footprint. I for one know that I will be buying more local food, use more public transportation, and ride my bike more often.
The only thing I wish the book had more of is Canadian content. There is only one chapter, "Keystone Conundrum", on the situation of connecting the oil in Alberta to refineries.
June 9, 2014
A cohesive argument for the end of growth due to fossil fuel scarcity, from an economist specializing in natural resources who was once part of the Wall Street investment banking set during his career at CIBC. Rubin is an eloquent writer, no doubt well practiced at writing succinct and to the point summaries of economic trends to well heeled clients of CIBC in his previous job. He must therefore be very convinced to strike out against the mainstream views of the financial world by putting forth such heretic views. While I was familiar with Peak Oil, Rubin brings an economist's perspective to the issue, arguing that it is the price rather than the quantity of non-renewable energy sources that truly matter and that will put an end to the unprecedented era of growth since the Industrial Revolution. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus are not inexhaustible and without easily exploitable fossil fuels to grease the economy, any recovery will be short lived as high oil prices put the brakes on our energy driven economies.
Rubin comes across as somewhat of an optimist, never becoming bitter or angry at the state of the world but rather just an interested and candid observer. There is a silver lining and it is that we will run out of economically viable sources of hydrocarbons, leading to the end of growth, which will in turn result in a reduction in carbon emissions, quite possibly before global temperature rises to the dangerous levels predicted by the IPCC. The author also believes our society will be able to adjust to a static economy characterized by energy conservation and job sharing without suffering a painful transition period, which I highly doubt. Our addiction to growth is like a drug, the lack of which will result in withdrawal symptoms for sure, not to mention the resulting decline in carrying capacity of the planet when that happens and its macabre implications.
Rubin comes across as somewhat of an optimist, never becoming bitter or angry at the state of the world but rather just an interested and candid observer. There is a silver lining and it is that we will run out of economically viable sources of hydrocarbons, leading to the end of growth, which will in turn result in a reduction in carbon emissions, quite possibly before global temperature rises to the dangerous levels predicted by the IPCC. The author also believes our society will be able to adjust to a static economy characterized by energy conservation and job sharing without suffering a painful transition period, which I highly doubt. Our addiction to growth is like a drug, the lack of which will result in withdrawal symptoms for sure, not to mention the resulting decline in carrying capacity of the planet when that happens and its macabre implications.
July 1, 2012
The End of Growth discusses the idea that availability of oil affects economic growth. It also explains how resources are becoming more limited throughout the world and we will be forced to change how we live to adapt.
I really enjoyed the discussion the author presented on the current world economies and why some countries came out of the last recession in a decent position while others did not. He made it very easy to understand all the complexities and politics that influence economics...including oil prices.
This book really make me think about the finite resources on this planet, and what will happen to us once we start running out of things. It was a bit disheartening, but I am hopeful that we can can come up with alternatives. I'm not sure if high oil prices will help save the world from climate change, but they certainly will make people think a bit more about the energy that they use. I want to believe that high oil prices will eventually cause more people to use other energy sources that are environmentally-friendly.
Overall, I found this book to be a quick and entertaining read. It could be slightly repetitive at times, but it was simple to follow and understand the concepts that the author was explaining. I thought it was a thought-provoking read, and recommend it to people interested in economics and environmental issues.
I received this book for free through Goodreads First Reads. Thank you!
I really enjoyed the discussion the author presented on the current world economies and why some countries came out of the last recession in a decent position while others did not. He made it very easy to understand all the complexities and politics that influence economics...including oil prices.
This book really make me think about the finite resources on this planet, and what will happen to us once we start running out of things. It was a bit disheartening, but I am hopeful that we can can come up with alternatives. I'm not sure if high oil prices will help save the world from climate change, but they certainly will make people think a bit more about the energy that they use. I want to believe that high oil prices will eventually cause more people to use other energy sources that are environmentally-friendly.
Overall, I found this book to be a quick and entertaining read. It could be slightly repetitive at times, but it was simple to follow and understand the concepts that the author was explaining. I thought it was a thought-provoking read, and recommend it to people interested in economics and environmental issues.
I received this book for free through Goodreads First Reads. Thank you!
April 1, 2017
SPOILER ALERT: I'm going to give a away some of the biggest points of this book in this review but it is still worthwhile reading even if you know them.
Rubin argues that our economies can only grow on the back of cheap energy and that cheap energy will no longer exist in our world. Energy prices are going up and are not going to come down again. Food prices will be significantly affected around the world, which we've already seen. Disposable income for the middle class and below will shrink significantly as we spend more money on food, powering and heating our homes. Governments will be able to do less and less for the average citizen as they continue to run budget deficits and the debt burden grows.
There was an interesting section on global warming. Rubin argues that we are running out of coal and oil that is affordable and accessible, which will help stave off the extremes of global warming. There is so much uncertainty around the size oil and coal reserves around the world that it is difficult, potentially impossible, to know if this is true.
Really enjoyed this book. It's an easy read that leaves me with many interesting things to think about.
Rubin argues that our economies can only grow on the back of cheap energy and that cheap energy will no longer exist in our world. Energy prices are going up and are not going to come down again. Food prices will be significantly affected around the world, which we've already seen. Disposable income for the middle class and below will shrink significantly as we spend more money on food, powering and heating our homes. Governments will be able to do less and less for the average citizen as they continue to run budget deficits and the debt burden grows.
There was an interesting section on global warming. Rubin argues that we are running out of coal and oil that is affordable and accessible, which will help stave off the extremes of global warming. There is so much uncertainty around the size oil and coal reserves around the world that it is difficult, potentially impossible, to know if this is true.
Really enjoyed this book. It's an easy read that leaves me with many interesting things to think about.
September 8, 2014
An informative read that doesn't merely prognose the end of growth in an ethical dimension, but also provides facts & figures aplenty to support that claim. Jeff Rubin also adds lots of in-depth explanations of how the market as we know it evolved, what liberalism means today, how a bubble grows (and bursts) and many more. Basically, this book doesn't just elaborate on why we have reached the end of growth, but also how significantly growth is woven together with structures of everyone's daily life. A glimpse beyond the machine, perhaps: huge and scary. And also a great (if hard-to-digest) remedial class on economics.
June 2, 2012
Jeff Rubin's second book is written in a straightforward and easy to follow style. It's focus is economic for sure but his clear writing make even complex concepts easy to understand. The last sentence of the book sums up his premise quite well. "As the boundaries f a finite world continue to close i on us, our challenge is to learn that making do with less is better than always wanting more."
I highly recommend this book for anyone interested in where we are all heading and some excellent suggestion on how to prepare for the future.
I highly recommend this book for anyone interested in where we are all heading and some excellent suggestion on how to prepare for the future.
May 30, 2013
It's a decent read. The information that the author provides is interesting and helpful for those to better understand the global industrial and energy economies/market. The author poses a lot of questions to the reader, but leaves many of them unanswered. They're well-thought thought experiments, but there's too many and could have been beneficial to expand further on some of his ideas.
It's worth a read, but you won't find anything world changing or anything worthy of a Nobel
PS It's fun to count how often the author uses the word "wherewithal".
It's worth a read, but you won't find anything world changing or anything worthy of a Nobel
PS It's fun to count how often the author uses the word "wherewithal".
December 27, 2012
In this book, Rubin explains how the global financial crisis was caused by high oil prices and why the kind of economic growth we've seen in the past century will probably not come back. Although it is an interesting perspective, I found it adds little to his first book. It's still the same equation: high demand from developing economies + production that may soon diminish = unaffordable energy = end of globalization and growth.
November 13, 2015
Very interesting topic that was well researched. The writing, however, left something to be desired. I think that the message is so important, it was disappointing that it was so difficult to get through the economics of it all. But I suppose at it's roots, "growth" itself is an Economic term. My husband loved this book. He's got a background in Finance and probably understood the concepts better than I did.
October 8, 2012
Great book. Starts with the downer of how we are destined for the end of growth, ends with the upper of how great it will really be for everyone. Makes you realize that growth in GDP is really only good for a small handful of people and its about time we go back to working to improving our lives, not some statistic. Inspiring in a time chock full of bad news.
March 26, 2013
An update of his previous book, Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, this book continues Rubin's themes of oil gluttony, American and European debt and China's search for more oil, resulting in a big environmental mess. Worth reading and learning about the big ideas that are running our world.
February 11, 2014
Rubin is Rubin, If you've heard his theories on cyclical boom and bust cycles based on raising fuel prices and his misguided belief that high prices will stave off the worst impacts of climate change, then you've get the gist of most of this book. Glad I returned the purchased copy I got for Xmas and just borrowed it from the Library
Displaying 1 - 30 of 50 reviews