The Dictator's Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy

by William J. Dobson

In this riveting portrait of authoritarianism in peril, acclaimed journalist William Dobson takes us inside the relentless battle between dictators and the people challenging their rule.

We are witnessing an incredible moment in the war between dictators and democracy—waves of protests are sweeping Syria and Yemen, and despots have fallen in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. But the Arab Spring is only the latest front in a worldwide battle between freedom and repression, a battle that also rages in a dozen other countries from Venezuela to China, Russia to Malaysia. It is a struggle that, until recently, dictators have been winning hands-down. The reason is that today’s authoritarian regimes are nothing like the frozen-in-time government of North Korea. They are ever-morphing, technologically savvy, and internationally connected, and they have replaced more brutal forms of intimidation with seemingly “free” elections and talk of human rights. Facing off against modern dictators is an unlikely army of democracy advocates—students, bloggers, environmentalists, lawyers, activists, and millionaires—who are growing increasingly savvy themselves. The result is a global game of cat-and-mouse, where the future of freedom hangs in the balance. Dobson takes us behind the scenes in both camps, and reveals how each side is honing its strategies for the war that will define our age.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, History, Political Science, Social Science, Russia, Current Affairs

352 pages, Hardcover

First published October 1, 2012

Reviews

[Mizuki · Rating 5 out of 5]

I love this new book covers!!!!!!

I brought The Dictator's Learning Curve from the library and then a student was surprised when he saw it: "You can still borrow books like this from the library!?"

That, pretty much tells you the current gloomy political and social situation HongKongers are facing.

a note of observation:
if Venezuela counts as a authoritarian and/or dictatorship, then Singapore and Malaysia definitely should be labeled as ones as well.

“It is the use of a system to destroy a system, a democracy to destroy democracy.”

Some key points made by the author:

(1)"The new era would definitely be more democratic and free than the previous era" is incorrect. People have to keep watch to maintain the survival of democracy.

(2)Dictatorships would learn from other dictatorships about how to suppress, the rebels would learn from other rebels how to fight back.

(3)Aside from using violence, modern dictatorships are more likely to manipulate votes, disguise themselves as "democracies" with imperfect or, "improved" electoral and political systems, and build up their popularity by promising economic growth, social stability, and national rejuvenation. (But it does not mean that they would not or are unwilling to use violence)

(4) The goal of an opposition movement is to weaken the government's popularity and credibility.

(5) Violence is dictatorship's strong point, so the opponents would be better off avoid fighting violence with violence and find out the weaknesses of the dictatorship.

(6) The success rate of non-violent resistance is relatively higher.

(7)Dictatorships are more afraid of their own people unifying and resisting than them being afraid of the United States.

(8)Rebellions must be carried out with thorough planning, thorough preparation, calculations and take measure to win support from within the system. Rebels must also expect the regime to make response to the resistance movements and make plans to counter their action.

(9)The so-called "people's spontaneous actions overthrew the dictatorship" in the new reports are usually the result of years of organization and networking and "democratic infrastructure" being built behind the scenes. Unorganized spontaneous actions is more dangerous to the movement.

Here are the points made by the author, I’ll bring up my own questions and thoughts later.

Thoughts after reading:
Well, it’s all very freaking educational, and I’m saying it in a good way.

and there is another quote in the book I remember quite well: 'You have created so many enemies, but you don't have the gut to face them.'

Edited@18/03/2022:

In the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, The Dictator's Learning Curve: Inside of Global Battle for Democracy really shows a lot of insight to the current intentional situation.

Edited@01/04/2022

I am glad the author gave out a lot of insight on what has happened in Russia and how Putin took control over the country, step by step, people, learning time is now! (Chinese only, sorry!)

普京的集權流程︰

(I) 整頓富豪︰立威及殺雞警猴，由於富豪們巧取豪奪不得人心，民眾當時十分支持整頓富豪。
(II) 整頓傳媒︰(1)逼傳媒老闆出售股份，把主流商營傳媒變國營媒體，(2)對付小型媒體，就會以修改法律的方式限制傳媒的報導。
(III) 誣告勾結外國勢力︰接受基金、捐款做研究都會受打壓。
(IV) 用法律打壓反對者︰消防條例、建築物安全條例、查稅…全部都可以選擇性執法。
(V) 打擊公民社會︰大幅收窄慈善團體的定義，不准他們接受捐款。
(VI) 成立GONGO (government-NGO)取代NGO︰GONGO聲稱不和政府合作就不能改善環保、人權、LGTBQ等問題，但同時又會在關鍵時間充當政府喉舌，反擊外國及媒體就人權等問題的指控。
(VII) 謀殺記者及人權運動者︰記者及行動者人身安全直接受到威脅，警察隻眼開隻眼閉，永遠不會破案。
(VIII) 數碼集權︰19年COVID-19期間大量推數碼集權(人面識別及大數據)。自亞拉伯之春後，各國獨裁政府開始習慣用斷網來切斷反抗者的對外連繫。
(IX) 扭曲選舉制度︰投票率變成官方「侯選人」人氣的指標。反對黨沒有執政的機會。反對黨只能掙扎求存，無法反抗政府。
(X)局部容許國民享有個人自由︰容許國民享受西式生活方式及個人自由(例如︰去旅行及移民)，減低不滿情緒；但大力打壓要求開放政治權力的人。

[Tracy · Rating 4 out of 5]

I really enjoyed this book! Of course, part of what was enjoyable was my husband misunderstanding the title and worrying that I've been studying a "Dictator's Handbook" - he has several times expressed hopes for a benevolent dictatorship.

I have been wanting to understand how authoritarian governments form, how they manage to stay in control despite severe criticism and lack of civilian support and how and why they sometimes end. I have been especially interested since the Arab Spring. This book addresses those questions using the example of Venezuela, China and Egypt. It also touches on events in Serbia, Malaysia, Romania, Burma, and the Ukraine - among others.

It is well written by a well-traveled journalist with a sufficient amount of flare and style to make it interesting. Lots of good anecdotes, interviews, and experiences to make it rather fast-paced. I was impressed with the organization of the book. Also, he managed to keep the suspense in storytelling even if I already knew the outcome of many of the political events.

If you are interested in how people like Chavez or Mubarak became such powerful and terrifying figures and how in the hell they keep/kept their power for so long - check this out. Or if you are ready to start your own non-violent overthrow of a autocrat ... this book is a fine starting place (although the techniques don't seem to work on a autocrat of 3 yrs old).

[Owlseyes]

Some days ago many gathered in Oslo's Freedom Forum 2014 to address this issue of Dictatorship*. At least 30 dictatorships have been exposed; Will Dobson was there too. So were people who would complain about situations in Mexico, China, Turkey, and Russia….; relevant to the latter nation: two members of the Pussy Riot band, who had been imprisoned in Siberia for some time; they spoke about the experience in jail and the charges they’ve been subject to. Former champion chess player Kasparov did show up to elaborate more on his well-developed thinking about “Russia’s a dictatorship”. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was there too.



But, back to Dobson. He made a short presentation of his book’s content about which I talk next.

1-He spent 3 years travelling throughout modern-day dictatorships; in countries such as: Malaysia, Russia, Egypt, Venezuela, China (…).

2-Broadly speaking he summarized his experience, dividing people he was with in two groups: (a) the regime people, perpetuating it, like: political advisors, technocrats, the military…the cronies; (b) those trouble-makers who want to topple the regime; they’re the students, academicians, the environmentalists, the bloggers…; these are, according to Dobson, “no blind romantics” ,but activists, “battle-scarred”; doing their work with intelligence , skill and care. They’re “accomplished strategists” from “all walks of life”; “savvy political analysts, “incredible propagandists”.

In my opinion this division is methodologically too simplified; I can recall in Portugal (1974) the military toppling the fascist regime of Salazar; or recently the military takeover in Thailand, just to name a few cases.



3-Dictators don’t fear the USA, the UN, the international community,…but their own people.

4-Dobson is optimistic regarding the future. [Hmmm, the Arab Spring wasn’t that successful]

5-He told an interesting kind of episode (almost a joke).He had been some time in Egypt (just when the Arab Spring was unfolding) and now he was with Chinese [communist] officials. One of the questions at stake was: about the possibility of something similar to happen in China. The officials were very prepared and advanced reasons why that wouldn’t happen in China: Mubarak was unprepared…we’re prospering…and we’re AN ANCIENT CIVILIZATION; Dobson replied: what about Egypt’s?!. That was surely a blow for the official; the ancient-argument (their “talking-points”) could not be used;
… No more as excuse?

It came to my mind two other cases: North Korea (a dictatorship) and Tibet (under a dictatorship).

*http://new.livestream.com/accounts/59...

[Chris Aylott · Rating 4 out of 5]

A surprisingly optimistic book. Dobson shows how today's autocrats are taking a more sophisticated approach to repression, targeting the troublemakers and encouraging apathy among everyone else. Fake opposition, demagoguery, and even legitimate economic progress all have their place when you want to keep your regime in power.

But Dobson also spends a lot of time with the troublemakers who are out to bring these regimes down, and they are an impressive bunch. The successful resistors understand the corollary of "War is politics by other other means" and approach politics as a nonviolent military operation.

There are a lot of hard fights ahead, and Dobson's reporting ended before events in nations like Egypt reminded us that getting rid of a dictator is a lot easier than staying free afterwards. But in the long run, my money is on the resistors. The next question is: what can we learn from them that we can use against the plutocrats that have hijacked this country?

[Alexandra · Rating 5 out of 5]

Inspirational for any kind of dissident. Great historical documentation, well matched with an optimistic tone. This book can give hope to any kind of citizen, be they from a democracy or from an authoritarian regime.

[Ana-Maria Bujor · Rating 5 out of 5]

While some of the situations presented in this book have changed (Syria, Egypt, Venezuela, etc), the main message is still very much true - today dictatorships learn to adapt and overcome the spread of social networks, information, and opposition movements by polishing their image, bribing supporters and trying to give a democratic polish to their regime.
The individual stories of those opposing dictatorships, some depressing, some funny, some uplifting, were very entertaining and educational to read. I am looking now at what is happening in Belarus with new eyes.
The analysis is sharp, the storytelling great. Even if you are not a great fan of reading about politics, you may enjoy this one.

[Ricardo · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book for learning about how authoritarian governments work in the XXI century.

[Liz · Rating 5 out of 5]

Timely, scary, but also hopeful. The people have power.

[Kuszma · Rating 5 out of 5]

Szem előtt kell tartani, hogy ez zsurnalizmus, és ennek fényében kell értékelni is. Ez a műfaj a hagyományos szakmunkánál jóval több elkötelezettséget engedhet meg magának, ezt a gonzó óta tudjuk. Ugyanakkor pont olyan, amilyennek a zsurnalizmusnak egy ideális világban lennie kéne: informatív, lendületes, személyes, izgalmas és lelkesítő – és ami szintén nem hátrány: korrekt és visszakereshető adatokkal dolgozik.

Dobson könyve két részre bontható: egy félelmetes, meg egy felemelő szálra. A félelmetes szál a XXI. század diktatúrák módszereinek ábrázolása, akik, mint látható, alkalmazkodtak a kor követelményeihez Venezuelában éppúgy, mint Malajziában. Úgy fest, nagyobb erőt tulajdonítanak a demokrácia intézményeinek, mint a demokráciák saját maguk, mert mesteri mimikriként az ő külsejüket öltötték magukra: alkotmányuk nyugati típusú, papíron polgáraik jogai széles körűek, és legtöbben szépen megrendezett népszavazásokat is tartanak szemre valódi ellenzéki pártokkal. Dobson összeszedi ezeket a trükköket, nem ritkán a rezsimek döntéshozóit beszélteti, rámutatva a retorika és a valóság közti hiátusra is. Nagyon tanulságos – akinek például az orosz módszertan tanulmányozásakor (A cár c. fejezet) nem jut eszébe, hogy bizony valaki (netuddki) egy az egyben a putyini kottából játszik, annak… hát annak irigylem a nyugodt éjszakáit.

Ugyanakkor e könyv igazi gerincét a felemelő rész adja: azoknak az ellenzékieknek és civileknek a bemutatása, akik a világ minden autoriter szegletében keményen dolgoznak azért, hogy megágyazzanak a valódi demokráciáknak. Eszement bátor hölgyek és urak ezek – nap mint nap kockáztatják, hogy „baleset” éri őket, vagy a családvédelem egyszer csak megjelenik náluk, mert „névtelen bejelentés érkezett”, hogy bántalmazzák a saját gyerekeiket… és mindezt azért, mert fontosnak tartanak valamit, amiről ők tudják, hogy érték – bár itt páran már kezdik elfelejteni. De nem is a bátorságuk olyan felemelő (az inkább lenyűgöző), hanem profizmusuk. Dobson könyvének legnagyobb tanulsága, hogy ezek a civilek nem szimpla idealisták, hanem szakemberek, akik egyre komolyabb mértékben cserélik ki tapasztalataikat sorstársaikkal*. Ilyen értelemben a rezsimek és ellenzékük közti háború egyfajta információs háború, ahol mindkét fél egyre több tudást igyekszik szívni magába, és az nyer, aki jobban alkalmazza a tanultakat. És Dobson elég meggyőzően érvel amellett, hogy ez a küzdelem nem eleve esélytelen, még ha nyilván nincs is garancia a sikerre.

Igazi unikum ez a könyv, mert új oldalról mutatja be a ma unásig emlegetett „illiberális” rendszereket: azon a küzdelmen keresztül, amit saját állampolgáraik ellen folytatnak. Az erőszakmentes mozgalmak kézikönyve (majdnem mondtam, hogy bibliája…), amelynek alapvetése, hogy az erőszak az államnak hazai pálya, nem okos dolog ebben megmérkőzni vele**. Kiemelendő, hogy gyakorlati javaslatok is vannak benne a diktatúra elleni küzdelemhez, forradalmároknak tehát külön melegen ajánlom.


* Egyre komolyabb hagyománya van azoknak a workshopoknak, amiket civilek szerveznek (félig-meddig titokban) az autoriter államokban élő aktivistáknak. A rendezvények doyenjei a szerb Otpor egykori vezetői, akik 2000-ben megdöntötték Milosevics kormányát – olyasfélék ők ebben a szakmában, mint kajak-kenuban a magyarok. Fontos leszögezni, hogy ezeket a műhelyeket nem a CIA meg az USA pénzeli, bármit is állítson az Echo TV, hanem különböző nyugati civil szervezetek égisze alatt működnek. Az eddigi tapasztalatok azt mutatják, hogy az Egyesült Államok kormánya nem különösebben szíveli őket – ők inkább stabilitást akarnak. Hiszen minek leváltani a kínai kormányt, amikor így is elég rendesen hiteleznek nekünk?
** 1900 és 2000 között az erőszakmentes mozgalmak 50 %-ban értek el rendszerváltást, míg az erőszakosak csak 25 %-ban.

[Ionut · Rating 5 out of 5]

"The Dictator's Learning Curve" is a thoroughly researched book that dissects modern day dictators and repressive states. Modern day dictators have adapted their techniques to the modern day. Instead of force, they are repressive in more insidious ways, they use laws for example to hinder the activity of opposing parties or NGOs (they might routinely send inspections for example), they are tech-savvy so they use the Internet to their advantage.

Dissidents have adapted their methods as well and this book provides an overview of nonviolent protest movements across the world. It examines protest movements in Egypt, Burma, China, Russia, Venezuela. What is surprising is how these movements learn from each other and collaborate. Dobson actually attended CANVAS (Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies) workshops where members of the Otpor! Serbian movement that ousted Slobodan Milošević introduce nonviolent strategies to activists across the whole world. They in turn adapt them to the settings in their countries.

There are several passages that I enjoyed in this book. The dedication of Venezuelan students, one of the student leaders telling his mother "I don't think I'm coming home today, mom" being set on defending election results against Hugh Chavez's attempts to mess with referendum results. Or the retired US colonel Helvey explaining how one should construct nonviolent protest strategies "Life is nothing more than pattern analysis. Planning involves the habit of pattern analysis, and every living thing lives by a pattern. We need to know what that pattern is so that when it changes, the first question we ask is, Why?".

[Adam · Rating 3 out of 5]

Another non-fiction book that was wonderfully informative but a slog to get through. Best read a chapter at a time, as each chapter tackles a different subject and read like lengthy magazine articles. Still, the ideas here about how the modern authoritarian holds onto power and how the modern protester works to topple him illuminated corners of the recent waves of protests that I knew little about. Great way to learn more about the current regimes in Venezuela, China, and Russia, and the continued struggle in Egypt, given that your information level is similar to my own.

[Jiwa Rasa · Rating 5 out of 5]

Buku yang relevan dengan suasana semasa. Kisah diktator masakini yang cerdik dan menyelindungkan kedidaktoran mereka dengan Berpura-pura menyokong demokrasi. Pembaca dibawa ke merata pelusuk dunia melihat pemimpin seperti di China, Rusia, Venezuela, Mesir, Malaysia. Menarik mempelajari taktik yang digunakan semasa Arab Spring. Orange Revolution, Jasmine juga peranan mereka di belakang gerakan ini.

[PS Ng · Rating 4 out of 5]

"...the people who challenge them are moving up their own learning curve, too. From one authoritarian capital to the next, one truth is increasingly inescapable: The people actually matter. For a dictator, there is nothing more terrifying." - p.300, Epilogue. This makes the central theme of the book.

[Fran Caparrelli · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very worthwhile read although a bit discouraging. The book is copyrighted in 2012 and so much has changed since then but the author's insight into the dictator's of past and present day is illuminating.

[wally · Rating 3 out of 5]

finished this one this morning, 29th of may 2017. good read. i liked it. 3-stars.

enlightening, to know that there exists such a thing as...what? dobson doesn't provide it a name, like "terrorist-training" whatever. what do they call it, "site"....center? something. brings to mind that biography i read earlier this year, ho chi minh, and a school he attended in...moscow, i think it was. thought at the time, again, to the notion of a "terrorist-training center". center? always though, sheesh, doesn't a basement work, as well? a room with a view? does one need an entire nation-state for such a task. anyway, ho chi went to communist revolution school in moscow and the reader got the sense that others, from other areas of the world, attended as well. and we've been hearing about "terrorist training centers" for years now.

ho chi minh in moscow, all of the cult followers marching off to "jihad" in other places, and herein, various places and serbian veterans of the revolution there at home, trainers now. there's an acronym associated with some of it, canvas. non-violent overthrow regime schools, too. what a concept. sounds like it works. with all the learning curves associated with it...works in some areas. nothing here about ukraine...very little, it anything. 'cause? putin.

some really interesting information herein about venezuela, russia, egypt, china. really interesting, the way dictators co-op "democratic" trends, ideas, means, whatnot, to their own ends. the "public chamber" in russia...a variation in china. china comes up with these phrases, "speak bitterness" during mao's time...a variation of that recently. "anonymous complaints"? was that it? okay, here it is, "accusation centers" where people can file anonymous complaints.

talk with some chinese here, people i've worked for. health care mostly. and sure, every culture is the fabled "ethnocentric" or it wouldn't survive, right. so there's that. dobson talks with one guy from china herein...there's this idea expressed, responsibility...versus what...accountability was it?
the chinese guy is all gun-ho, the chinese system is better. then dobson chronicles reality. covers a number of changes that have happened in china since it all came down the pike. jasmine.

good read. i liked it. 3 stars.

[Yu-Ting Dai · Rating 4 out of 5]

#獨裁者的進化: 收編、分化、假民主

- 官僚所組成的強大穩定政府，能建立快速而有效率的行政體系，其經濟發展將遠勝於民主國家。
- 俄國卻有百分之八十的人還是倚靠電視來獲得新聞與資訊
- 獨裁政權創造出假的法律來當自己的遮羞布，然而如果他們把這些假的法律當成是真的，他們就可以阻止在位者一意孤行、視人民如草芥。
- 共產黨是不守承諾的。他們很缺德。
- 共產黨最精通的事就是偽造歷史
- 俄國是世界上記者死亡率第三高的國家，只排在伊拉克與菲律賓之後。
- 俄國政府把法律當成武器，選擇性地用來對付敵手。同樣地，伊芙吉尼亞也可以利用同一套司法體系來暴露當局的不一致與矛盾之處
- 他們不是一生下來就是異議人士或者環保鬥士；官逼民反以後，他們才變成政府的敵人。
- 選舉日沒有問題。所有的問題──用金錢、物品賄選，以過度的權力控制選舉、關說介入等等──都是在選舉日之前就發生了
- 證明有錢能使鬼推磨是亙古不變的真理。
- 就是他那六年單獨囚禁的回憶，才激勵他，讓他有動力馬不停蹄地四處趕場
- 我對民主自由的信念變得更為堅強。我被單獨關在囚室裡那麼久，才知道自由的意義何在，也才知道數百萬人猶然水深火熱，備受煎熬，渴求最基本的自由。
- 耐心，也許是任何專制政治制度裡，所有想要反抗權力者的反對黨領袖，最為需要的特質，可能比勇氣、膽量或者急智都更為重要
- 勇於挑戰最難撼動、最強大政權與獨裁者的，皆屬於青年運動
- 我們能夠輕易地超越政治鬥爭。因為我們不是反對黨，我們不是執政黨，我們沒有歷史包袱，我們不過是一兩千名要求改善情況的學生。
- 委內瑞拉學生最明確的優勢就是年紀以及政治中立性。
- 他認為並不是因為俄國年輕人不能動員，而是因為政府很聰明地不會無故激怒年輕人。
- 我必須樂觀，沒有別的選擇；另外的選項是絕望。我們只有苦中作樂才有辦法活下去。
- 埃及革命不只靠成千上萬老百姓見義勇為而已。多年的學習、多年的試驗與錯誤成為決策時的重要依據，抗議團體才有機會改變現狀。
- 我們發現原來的政權沒有倒，只是成為軍方的一部分而已
- 每個獨裁政權都有一些代表人物，他們最能體現該政權驕奢腐化、專擅特權的一面。
- 這是一條不准跨越的紅線，對軍方事務半認真地揣測、開玩笑都是不可以的。提都別想提。
- 許多人被控以暴徒罪，然而跟前朝的做法一樣，埃及軍方自己才是僱用許多便衣暴徒的一方，他們使出最殘暴的手段攻擊解放廣場的示威者。
- 對所有真心追求民主制度的人來說，給予專制政權的遺緒與繼承者越多時間，就對他們自己越不利。
- 非暴力運動有一半以上取得勝利，比較起來，使用槍桿子奪權的運動，只有百分之二十五成功
- 暴力乃是弱者最後的庇護所
- 最重要的，反抗者必須了解支撐獨裁政府的建構板塊有哪些，以訂定反擊的計畫。
- 當動亂因素一經出現，就不惜採取任何手段盡快消除，可以採取戒嚴或比戒嚴更加嚴厲的手段，使我們不受任何外來干擾。」自此以後，中國共產黨就一直奉上述原則為圭臬，未敢偏離。
- 中國共產黨的意識形態與正當性早就消失了。現在只剩下赤裸的利益。口號是沒有用的，他們只能設法收買人心。
- 中國有些事情是相對專制，有些則是相對民主
- 「民主一定會戰勝獨裁，只是時間問題而已。」──這種信念當然錯得離譜。歷史並不遵循著某一種固定的軌道前進

[Reza Amiri Praramadhan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Like other jobs, being a dictator is a job that meets constant challenges as the time progresses. The ever-changing world situations, the increasing political awareness of the people, and the advent of technologies, especially internet, pose a formidable obstacle for dictators around the world, forcing them to keep up their game. Be it by intimidating and silencing political opponents, suppressing dissents, “managing” their version of democracy, they found out that after such a long time, their own preferred tactics became more untenable. Drawing examples from dictatorships around the world, especially Russia, China, Egypt and Venezuela, this book discusses how dictators maintain their iron grip on power, and how the democratic oppositions fight them, with one instance succeeded in toppling the dictator (in Egypt). An insightful reading, I am particularly interested in how a group of former founders of democratic movement in Serbia are exporting their democratic revolutions in kind of classes and courses like in campus.

[Kamil Salamah · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very informative book. It shows how governments in power will go to any extreme to secure their longevity. Some are agile and respond quickly to enforce any processes to legitimize their existence, while others get caught off guard having to take sudden disastrous methods to keep their grip firm; having to adjust at a later stage to pretend "democratic inclusion".

The author takes the reader thru an excellent list of historical governmental examples, globally, to educate us of the many live examples from East to West. Although some movements have succeeded in forcing change others have not and were brutally crushed.

He rightfully concludes, undemocratic systems, become heavily burdened by very expensive systems draining their economy to remain in power; thus it is best to gain proper legitimacy thru "inclusion" to be successful to ensure fairness and harmony: the mark of strong productive, innovative societies.

[Gordon Howard · Rating 2 out of 5]

Uneven, rambling look at the battle between dictatorships around the world and their domestic opponents. Lots of different stories that move back and forth between nations, and don't seem to be organized very well into topic areas. Some of these stories are interesting, others aren't. In addition, although only eight years old, the book is now been made out-of-date by events since its publication.

[David · Rating 3 out of 5]

I started this 2012 book thinking I’d learn a little poli sci. Instead I found myself shocked by how closely the current American president hews to the behavior of dictators around the world. I didn’t expect the similarities, but they are undeniably there.

Be that as it may, engaged citizens can also do something about it. Even during a pandemic.

Also surprising was how quickly the global political landscape has changed since the book was written.

[Nicholas Maulucci · Rating 3 out of 5]

Now this was an interesting book. Author took turns focusing on different despotic regimes in the current world. Traveled to those places and talked to the movers and shakers. This kind of stuff should be part of social studies curriculum in the public schools. Yeah, right...then the communists wouldn't be able to brainwash us.

[Vivian · Rating 5 out of 5]

Williams does a good analysis of past uprisings of dictatorships showing why some are successful in over throwing asshats vs the ones that fail.

[Kaxing Leung · Rating 4 out of 5]

#借标台版。翻译的副标取得特别好，比原书副标要直指核心，更彰显CD的价值。查韦斯那段真是高玩复盘，写俄国保卫森林的居民，专业人士那些段落信息量很够，成文也故事化得很好读。但译文很多错字要吐槽。

[Charing Szeto · Rating 4 out of 5]

Inspiring

[Skarner · Rating 3 out of 5]

大致簡介了不少獨裁/威權政府分化和玩法律的方式
來維持獨裁者的權利利用民主方式反民主等
書中內容多以2012時的國際情勢做說明
以讀者未來式已經不少都失敗收場查維茲、穆巴拉克都入土了，阿拉伯之春造成的後果更可怕
埃及、委內瑞拉、俄國、中國等情況依舊反倒還變本加厲，政府對社會掌控更加嚴格且靈活。
比起這本我反倒更推薦《獨裁者手冊》，內容更實用分些更到味而且文筆也較好。

[MLE · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5

[JS Found · Rating 5 out of 5]

This thrilling book has a simple but brilliant premise: charting the battles between dictators and democrats in oppressive countries. Dictators no longer only use primitive brute force to control their people and to stay in power. They use democratic systems--just the ones they need--and laws--made favorable to them by them--to keep alive their dirty business. They manipulate. They use subtle strategy. Regulations. The media. The examples of other authoritarian countries going through revolutions. But, as they learn, so do their enemies--the freedom fighters and activists who want their nation to be free. It's no longer war and protests that define the battle for liberty in these countries; it's nuanced thinking; it's three dimensional chess.

Dobson focuses on a handful of regimes--China, Egypt, Venezuela, Russia--where there's always a constant tension between autocratic rule and democratic leanings. He recounts how the dictators in those countries came to power and how they consolidated it. He talks to government officials and official propagandists. He also talks to opposition leaders, the old guard, and student activists, the new guard. He sits in on freedom organizations as they plan strategy. (There are a few who set up workshops for activists from any country interested in how to do an effective nonviolent democratic movement.) This is a wonderful book of boots-on-the-ground reporting. Dobson visited many places, racking up over 93,000 miles for the book.

The best bits are the interviews with the activists, and advice on how to stage a successful revolution. Be nonviolent. Don't focus on hating the regime because hate doesn't attract people. Have a lot of patience. Use humor to win over people and show the absurdity of the regime. Try to create what are known as "conflict dilemmas" for the government. Be inclusive. Have a leadership that is not a democracy. And so on.

What the dictator does to hold onto power: threats and manipulations; using social media technology to create an enemies list of people who can be cowed into voting the way the regime wants; buyouts of critical media like radio and TV stations; formulating new laws that make it hard for people to protest, NGOs and human rights organizations to operate; creating sham opposition parties and student protest groups that really are for the regime; and of course, using violence.

The activist must use strategy and perseverance. She's in this for the long haul. Because, as this book written during and after the Arab Spring shows, a democratic country is possible. It can be done. Featuring great introductions to freedom fighters and organizations, as well as a good bibliography of revolution manuals and their histories.

[Joseph Serwach · Rating 4 out of 5]

"Between 1900 and 2006 more than 50 percent of nonviolent movements succeeded, compared with roughly 25 percent of violent insurgencies. When activists look squarely at the the choice of toppling dictators with bullets or ballots , they see a greater chance for success by nonviolent means.'' - William J. Dobson, The Dictator's Learning Curve.

In 1974, the world had just 41 democracies. By 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, the world had 76 democracies. By 2005, the number of democracies worldwide was triple what it was in 1974.

But by 2010, authoritarian regimes were figuring out ways to come back and adapt to a changing world where dictators can no longer control communications channels as easily as they could in the 20th century.

William Dobson does a stellar job comparing the strategies of authoritarian regimes in Russia, China, Venezuela and Egypt, looking at the authoritarians and their opponents and how both have adapted to each other in the fight for power.

Today's dictators are far more sophisticated in the way they maintain power. As are their opponents, who have learned to use tools from humor to Social Media to advocate the change they seek.

Dobson quotes a Russian opposition leader explaining the difference between communism and Putinism: "Putinism looks smarter, because Putinism comes just for your political rights but does not touch your personal freedom. You can travel, you can emigrate if you want, you can read the Internet. What is strictly forbidden is to use TV. Television is under control because TV is the most powerful resource for ideology and the propaganda machine. Communists blocked personal freedom plus political freedom. That's why communism looks much more stupid than Putinism.''

Both sides are more sophisticated, finding ways to use political and legal tools as well as the power of persuasion, he explains.

An opponent of Hugo Chavez explains: "If you're going to fight Mike Tyson, you're not going to box against him, because even though he is crazy, he's going to kill you. But if you can challenge him to a game of chess, you might have a chance to defeat Mike Tyson. We're not going to fight (Chavez's military or police), because they have guns and weapons; they'd kill us. But if we can take them away from their game and put them in our game, a game that we control, then we can defeat them. Yes, it's possible that Mike Tyson will get angry after you beat him in chess and hit you. But if he does that, you're going to have the support of the population. If Mike Tyson hits you in a boxing match, everybody says you deserve it. After all, you went into a boxing ring with Mike Tyson.''

[Ishmael Seaward · Rating 4 out of 5]

Just started. Putin's Russia is being described. I already knew that the country is a kleptocracy. Here is the underlying reason, and how it is being pulled off. It also occurs to me that Putin and his cronies may well be a sociopath. The author documents fairly clearly how the regime wants to be viewed as a nation of laws, violates them, then how the activists can use those very laws to expose the regime for what it is. What is really interesting is how Putin set up an agency to collect and measure the attitudes of the public, after he turned the parliament into a rubber stamp. It is also worth noting that capital is steadily leaving the country; investors are voting with their money.

The chapter called Enemies of the State was equally fascinating, especially the part where Yevgenia forced the state to abandon plans for a highway that would have destroyed a historic patch of woods. Most of the money for the highway was coming from foreign banks; Yevgenia and her fellow activists embarrassed the banks into withdrawing the money. As a consequence, her activist group has been targeted with beatings, official harassment, and threats to her daughters. Such is Putin's Russia.

[Brandon Lamb · Rating 4 out of 5]

Terrific book.

An interesting read on the development of dictatorships and the ever changing landscape due to the internet etc which have evolved how dictatorships are required to operate.

The book dives into some interesting countries such as Venezuela, Egypt, China and Russia using a mix of sources from first person accounts and historic events. The only thing really holding this book back is its analyse of current events which have not has the opportunity to have files released over time after the dictatorships fall. However this is what makes the book interesting as you constantly attempt to fill in the missing gaps and question how this is still going on in today's society. Even the tactics and legislative loopholes which are used are fascinating.

For anyone who enjoys dictatorships, politics and sociology, this book is a fresh change to read something touching topics which are mostly in the newspaper.

This book will however age quite quickly due to these flaws.

Enjoy