Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent

by Edward Luce

"Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking."-Sir Ernest Rutherford, winner of the Nobel Prize in Nuclear PhysicsTime to Start Thinking is a book destined to spark debate among liberals and conservatives alike. Drawing on his decades of exceptional journalism and his connections within Washington and around the world, Luce advances a carefully constructed and controversial argument, backed up by interviews with many of the key players in politics and business, that America is losing its pragmatism - and that the consequences of this may soon leave the country high and dry.Luce turns his attention to a number of different key issues that are set to affect America's position in the world the changing structure of the US economy, the continued polarization of American politics; the debilitating effect of the "permanent election campaign"; the challenges involved in the overhaul of the country's public education system; and the heal

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Economics, Current Affairs, History, American, Social Commentary

320 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2012

Reviews

[Graeme · Rating 4 out of 5]

Although this book was published in 2012, the depressing situation of the United States has only deepened. Virtually nothing has changed, except that full employment somehow happened at the end of Barack Obama's watch, and the Tea Partiers, uniquely stupid and ignorant, found their home in the Trump campaign.

Edward Luce speaks with some prescience of future leadership:

The more alienated America's voters become from the two major political parties, he [Patrick Caddell] said, the more they will respond to whackos who emerge from nowhere to exploit their resentment against Washington. Such types include Ross Perot, who was the third-party presidential candidate in 1992 and 1996, Pat Buchanan, the Republican with a "pitchfork" in 1996, or even Donald Trump, the property and reality TV mogul, who flirted with a presidential bid in 2011. One day, one of them would win. "Nobody with any decency goes into politics any more," said Caddell. "America is entering a period of great danger."

[Peter · Rating 5 out of 5]

The title of the book is inspired by a quotation by Sir Ernest Rutherford who won the Nobel prize for Chemistry: "Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking." I would recommend this book to people with associations with the United States of America, be they professional, cultural, social or familial. It paints a lucid portrait of many of the significant challenges facing Uncle Sam in the second decade of the century.

[Todd Martin · Rating 4 out of 5]

The topic for today’s discussion: Whether America is in decline.

The evidence for this claim:
- Americans pay more for health care, receive worse health outcomes and die earlier than residents of other developed countries.
- The US education system ranks somewhere between 22nd and 29th in the world (depending on subject). We also lead in high school drop-out rates (in fact, we’re the only developed nation where a higher percent of 55 to 64-year-olds than 25 to 34-year-olds have graduated from high school).
- Infrastructure in the U.S. is crumbling and faces a $3.5 trillion backlog in repairs.
- The middle class is being hollowed out, creating a two-tiered society comprised of the ‘have-it-alls’ and everyone else.
- The majority of jobs being created are menial, low paying and require few skills.
- Manufacturing jobs continue to be exported overseas at an alarming rate.
- The country is failing to position itself for the future. While other countries heavily invest in alternative energy and R&D, high speed rail and public transportation, the US continues to subsidize fossil fuels.
- Due to magical free-market fetishization and a prevalence of Wall Street influence, US economic policy encourages companies to invest overseas instead of fueling research, innovation and job grown at home.
- Thanks to years of partisan demonization of the federal government and the influence of moneyed interests, the US political system is dysfunctional to the point of despair. Politicians are more invested in the retention of power than in governing and are simply not up to the task of addressing the problems we currently face.

Is there any good news?
The U.S. is still the biggest economy in the world. For now. China is on track to surpass the U.S. around 2020.
The U.S. is number one in innovation. This is our greatest strength, though there are reasons to believe that the innovation gap is shrinking.
The U.S. has the most powerful military in the world. Although, given the seemingly irresistible temptation of politicians to put this asset to use for purposes that don’t serve the national interest, I’m not sure this isn’t a liability.

Some of these difficulties are due to external circumstances. Thanks to globalization and the internet, the economic playing field around the world is being leveled. Developing countries are hungry, motivated and are investing heavily in manufacturing, education, infrastructure and R&D. The world has simply become more economically competitive.

Internally, however, the U.S. is a mess and seemingly becoming worse. We’re cutting taxes instead of investing in education, passing ‘bathroom bills’ instead of fixing infrastructure and promoting rent-seeking instead of manufacturing and innovation. We’re talking about building walls instead of encouraging motivated and highly educated immigrants to make America their permanent home. We’re subsidizing fossil fuels instead of investing in clean energy. We’re falling behind in STEM education, and saddling college grads with mountains of debt.

In short were looking backwards instead of forwards, focusing on the short term instead of the long, and yearning to go back to a time when America was great instead of planning for greatness in the future. This is what psychologists technically refer to as a ‘delusional mindset’.

Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent by Edward Luce an English journalist and the Financial Times chief U.S. commentator, examines whether America is in decline through interviews with US and foreign business, policy and opinion leaders. The text is informative and the thoughts presented shed light and offer some perspective on the challenges ahead. Having said that, there are no shortage of people with opinions as to the problems, what we are in desperate need of are solutions, and those seem to be in increasingly short supply … including in this book.

The biggest problem with the text though is that Luce chooses to speak only with elites, and as a result the book lacks views from those who represent working Americans, unions and the underprivileged. The reason this is such a large error of omission is that change never comes from the top. It results from an upwelling of public sentiment from below. Luce is ignoring history if he thinks otherwise.

So, coming back to the point of discussion … is America in decline? Luce concludes that this is indeed the case and I find it hard to argue otherwise.

Those who believe in American exceptionalism are likely to believe that these problems can be overcome, but it would take a public willing to ignore the shrill voices of demagoguery and instead support politicians who take a pragmatic and evidence based approach to public service. A public willing to educate themselves on the issues and turn up to the voting booth en masse. A public who puts aside ideology in favor of good public policy. Who hold their elected officials accountable and apply critical thinking skills at the voting booth. Who reject gerrymandering in favor of competitive elections and who demand an end to business as usual, the filibuster, and the right to give unlimited sums to sway elections.

For those who crave some hope, these things are indeed possible … but they aren’t going to happen. Permanent gridlock is the new norm and Americans, who view compromise as a form of surrender, appear to be fully supportive of this winner-take-all infighting. The government that we currently have is precisely that which we deserve.

[Stephen · Rating 4 out of 5]

I came to this book rather sceptical about the belief of American decline. It has provided a useful antidote to my way of thinking, and has charted the trajectory of the decline of the US which is both consistent and believable. The book is part of a pair. I will only talk about this book in this review. In the future, I plan to review both books together because they are both quite significant as a pair.

A model of American decline is outlined in the book. It starts with the relative impoverishment of the American middle class. In addition to the question of growing inequality and social ossification, it makes the fairly innocuous point that the middle class is the consuming class, and that falling middle class incomes imply falling rates of middle class consumption. We now know that since the dot com crash in 2001, US levels of consumption had been maintained by growing levels of debt. The liquidity crisis of 2007 exposed just how naked American consumers had been.

In itself, this might not be a cause for concern. However, it does have a consequence that could have been reasonably foreseen. Growing inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs overseas, and slow economic growth have all contributed to a squeeze on the American tax base, which has served to squeeze the American education system. This education squeeze has caused the stagnation of productivity growth in the US. Improving productivity is the key to improving salaries, and is underpinned by improving educational standards. In fact, the reverse has happened. Falling educational standards (at an international level) have led to falling productivity, which has brought about the sluggish growth that has restrained wage rises.

The consequence of this vicious circle is that innovation rates in the US have fallen as well. In this sense, America has started to lag behind more dynamic economies, especially those of East Asia. Reduced innovation rates have been compounded by the development of a governmental bureaucracy that the author claims is stifling American competitiveness. The Asian economies are outcompeting the US, which is why American companies have shifted their production to Asia.

Within American society, the winners are looking to cement their gains - with the result of tax cuts further eroding the tax base upon which the American educational system rests - whilst the losers (the people left behind) becoming far more angry. This is polarising American society and is making America more ungovernable, particularly through the rise of the Tea Party in Congress. Mr Luce finally caps his model by drawing attention to the sheer corruption of Washington, at all levels, which ensures that nothing significant will change. The model is now set in concrete.

The book was published in 2012. The advantage of reading it in 2017 has been that we can now see the model with the benefit of five years hindsight. One of the points that grabbed my attention was the author pointing to the rise of Donald Trump as the champion of the angry middle class. His suggestion that President Obama would meet with nothing but frustration seems to have been well founded. His view that America is unable to take the lead internationally whilst it is so self-absorbed at home seems about right. His suggestion that China would quite readily occupy the void filled by an America in retreat seems to have been borne out by the facts. However, this last point is the subject of the second book of the pair, so we won't develop this point.

The author is of the belief that America is unable to reform itself, and that this spiral of decline is bound to continue, at least until the entitlements of the Baby Boomers have died away. I am not as sure of this as he seems to be. Of course, events so far have been in his favour, but America has yet to experience and existential threat. It will in the near future, and how it behaves in this crisis will determine whether or not the decline is terminal.

The author knows how to write and how to think. The argument is well made, with one point leading to the next in a very coherent sequence. The narrative is well written and engaging, which makes this book a joy to read. I may not entirely agree with the author's conclusions, but he has certainly made a sufficiently good case for me to rethink where I stand on this issue.

[Steven Grimm · Rating 4 out of 5]

Any American who's interested in the future well-being of the country will find this a depressing read. It's a catalog of bad news on lots of fronts, from education to industry to innovation to (especially) politics at both the state and federal level, and makes the case that these problems are all part of a negative feedback loop that defies easy correction. One can find fault with individual observations, as I did while reading, but the sheer quantity of problems, many of which are factually hard to dispute, paint a very bleak big picture. No one is spared; the author rips into Obama and Tea Party Republicans with vigor in the chapters on Washington (though the charges he levels at each are, of course, completely different). It's the sort of book you wish everyone would read -- but if its analysis is to be believed, that would likely not do much good anyway. Recommended, but only for people who can handle a bit of despair.

[Drtaxsacto · Rating 2 out of 5]

This is a remarkably uneven book. One could start with the comment that it would have been better had the author taken his one advice. A good deal of what is in here is a lot like an edition of Robin Leach's program although this one would probably be called "Lifestyles of the Mercantilists and Rent Seekers." The author breezes through a group of interviews of the rich and famous. Luce is a Brit who once worked for Larry Summers in the Obama White House as a speech writer. His research is sloppy. For example, he says Senator James Inhofe is from Alaska; Tom McClintock is a congressman from Thousand Oaks (he was a member of the legislature from there);that the Federal Reserve was created by a Constitutional Amendment - those are just for starters. Like Leach, Luce is also prone to generalizations which are not based on anything but their exuberant expression.

He argues, for example, that the boom in the US which began after the Civil War was a result of the Mercantilist like policies of Alexander Hamilton. Indeed, for a good part of the 19th and part of the 20th Century the US had a high tariff regime. But if Luce were correct then the imposition of the Smoot Hawley tariff regime at the start of the depression should have made the US economy growth exponentially. Obviously, the conditions which led to our economic growth included a series of factors. Then there are the omissions. For example, he fails to credit a host of inventors who work on the development of television - which indeed did have many parents.

The opening of the book begins with a summary of several commencement addresses including one by Nobel Economist Robert Solow and one by former Senator Donald Riegle (which was being written as Luce drove him to the event) - both of which were about the tough times we are in. A good deal of the rest follows the care that Riegle had for his listeners. For example, despite the evidence that counter-cyclical stimulus may not be successful in promoting growth (witness the failure of the stimulus bills to achieve their objectives) he thinks that borrowing money (which he says is currently dirt cheap) is a no-brainer to produce growth. There are plenty on the left who believe that but there is also plenty of evidence on how wrong the assumption is.

Luce seems to be a strong supporter of Industrial Policy. Early in the book he argues that the US should have one because "every other industrialized nation does" - not exactly a compelling argument. At the same time one of his many breezy stops was with Vinod Koshla (one of the founders of Sun) who is working on all sorts of non-linear technology solutions to a series of problems. Progress is not linear, although he seems to understand that bureaucracies rarely avoid linear thought. He seems to think that "investments" like Solyndra were sound. The US edged closer to industrial policy a couple of times in our history but wisely rejected that step. Any observer should acknowledge the role that DARPA and other federal agencies had in providing necessary stimulus to important things like the Internet - but it took the US capital markets to take an idea designed to prevent communications failures in time of war or catastrophe into a set of commercial successes. Even his old boss, Summers, once commented that the government is not a very good allocator of capital. Summers evidently said that remark out of Luce's earshot.

He seems to reflexively take the side of the liberal democrats. For example, he accepts the theory of asymmetric polarization (that the right is more polarized/polarizing than the left) as gospel. From my perspective part of the political problem the US faces is that there is no middle. Both the left and the right increasingly take their positions as theological. He also argues that the decline in the middle class is the result of globalization and technology. While both have certainly contributed to those trends - the explanation is far from adequate. Remember that if you took out only about 15 counties in the US, the perceived income inequality would be substantially reduced. His explanation does not account for the tremendous growth in the DC suburbs (although he does suggest that those areas are booming). From my own study - the complexity of the income decline is not limited to those two factors - also contributing has been the compensation of stars; the increase of compensation to lawyers and financial types and a host of other factors. For Luce, although he does not specifically say it, the best way to solve the inequality problem would be to raise rates in income taxes. Where that has been tried there is no evidence that it has worked.

He also seems to go hyperbolic on conservatives and tea partiers. He says he has talked with them - but the pictures he presents of them are mere caricatures. I realize as a partisan (he worked in the Obama White House) that he is free to make generalizations about his political opponents - but his constant nattering about the need for bipartisanship seems to be ignored when balanced against his descriptions of conservatives.

Finally, he comments that 40% of all subsidies from the Federal government go to the wealthy. A lot of that depends on what you call wealthy and whether, in the case of payments like Social Security, what should properly be called "subsidies." He describes that distribution as unique yet one need only look at European agricultural subsidies (where 2% of Europe's farms receive 24% of all direct payments while the smallest 60% receive only 10%) to see its folly.

So with all those problems what are the good points? First, he has a pretty good understanding of the arrogance of Washington. He seems to have read Mancur Olson, the University of Maryland economist who wrote three absolutely brilliant books on why people join groups and what are the hazards with groups. He argues that Washington is busy elaborating itself - with thousands of new administrative assistants, a host of Chiefs of Staff, an unreasonably complex tax code and a blizzard of regulations - rather than in figuring out what the most important jobs for government are. He suggests that there are 10 million contractual workers for the federal government. From my perspective, given those facts I would begin to see how this leviathan could be pruned a bit -keeping the important parts and discarding the rest. One way to reduce the gridlock, complexity and arrogance of DC is to try to limit the number of things DC tries to do. He is pretty good at describing some of the things that DC might need to refocus on (an opening from a discussion he had with a bunch of mid-career military officers is interesting) but he often seems to default with the notion that just because it is government funded, except for the Department of Defense, it probably should stay.

Second, although I think he is a bit of a toady for projects like the Gates Foundation - he recognizes that we are not serving our young people with our educational systems. I do not think the chapter on education does much more than recite a litany of the problems facing our public schools. But our record on making our K-12 schools models for the world is far from perfect. He dumps on charter schools - where I believe the record is better than he asserts - but he recognizes the perils of bureaucracy in these systems.

Third, in the private sector his criticism of the role of financial institutions is mostly on target. Although even there he defaults to a standard version offered by the likes of Barney Frank or Christopher Dodd. He does point out that Sarbanes Oxley (the legislation supposedly designed to “prevent” another Enron) has diminished the ability of startups to develop. To that he could also add the ACA and Dodd-Frank. He also does some interesting discussion of the decline in male compensation. A good deal of the perceived stagnation in wages over the last couple of decades is attributable to a real decline in average male incomes while female incomes have been rising.

Fourth, he has a perceptive analysis of the Obama Administration. Key to his descriptions is the President's inability to recognize that in the current environment he could not pursue his policies with a single mind and not expect to gain a negative reaction. His descriptions of the inner conflicts of the administration tell a story of the perils of hiring someone like Obama with so little administrative experience.

His concern about the combined problems of increasing disparity of incomes, slow economic growth and seeming decline in innovation and civic institutions got me to think about how to develop a counter reading list. The problems raised by Luce should not simply be ignored. There are plenty of alternative approaches - the best way to start thinking is to consider a wider range of alternatives.

So what would be in my reading list as a counter to Luce's inadequacies? First might be a book by two editors of the Economist, called the Fourth Revolution - which is a first rate survey of how various nations are confronting the dysfunctions of political systems that Luce tries to describe. The second is called the Second Machine Age by two economists which attempts to confront the challenges offered by technology - although their treatment is considerably more balanced. The third is by Charles Murray and details the changes that have happened to the middle class over the last 50 years. Finally, I would always recommend Mancur Olson's - The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities - which described the problems which gum up political systems in a much more formal way than Luce attempted. Those three and Olson's classic are a lot tougher read but if you want to try to start to think - they would leave you with a lot more substance - and possibly some much more convincing alternatives.

[Liam Ostermann · Rating 3 out of 5]

(some spelling and grammar mistakes corrected July 2024).

I know that there are plenty of books out there examining the current position and problems of the USA and I wouldn't even pretend to know of, let alone to have read, all or even a significant proportion of them. But amongst what I have read, both books and and in newspapers, magazines etc. this one stands up for being, I think, well written, non-polemical (although I am sure many would dispute this so let's say it is not so obviously a polemical/political rant as many others), but insightful and in the best way eye-opening and thought provoking. For example although American Universities and centres of higher education and research still attract the brightest from around the world none of these students want to remain in the USA after they complete their education - they want to get back to India, Malaysia, Eastern Europe - almost anywhere but the USA - it is no longer seen as the land of opportunity or of the good life.

This is not surprising when you read what this book has to say about the state of education - there is a reason that call centres not located in the USA - American high school 'graduates' are ill equipped to do the work - not only mono-lingual, but speaking the one they know ungrammatically and only reading, if at all, at the level of an 8 year old. If you look at the country's infrastructure it is even more dispiriting, or frightening, in the case of rail bridges. Thanks to the wonderfully inappropriately named Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 which was supposed to increase rail safety after a number of bad accidents this bizarre piece of legislation took the regulation of railway bridges out of government control and passed it over to corporate and municipal owners who now determine their road limits, engineering standard and their inspection, maintenance and repair schedules (or lack thereof). This means that each state is responsible for bridge safety but there is no Federal oversight and there is no one to complain to if your state is particularly tardy or negligent in repairs - also bridge inspection is done by inspectors who do not have to have any engineering knowledge - that there are 100,000 rail bridges held together with what, in engineering terms, are sellotape is the result. This situation is repeated across American highways, dams, airports, etc.

Reading this book I couldn't help thinking that in twenty years the wall America has erected to keep out 'illegal aliens' may be allowing Mexico to stop Americans fleeing the poverty and economic ruin of their country from over running them. A upsetting but well worth reading book.

[Sam · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an excellent, impassioned polemic about the relative decline of American power and economic competitiveness. Luce is an Englishman, a Financial Times journalist, a one-time speech writer for Larry Summer and both an admirer and a critic of America, its culture and its politics.

Luce's arguments are:
- America is declining in relative economic competitiveness because skilled, blue collar jobs are being lost in the US and being replaced by low productivity, low paying service jobs.
- As a result, American society is experiencing a "hollowing out" in which the middle class are increasingly financially squeezed.
- It is hard to do much about some of the causes for this, the rise of China being a good example. But America's political class is failing to do what it could to address these challenges in other areas.
- And America's political culture is stymying the possibility of changing anything.

It's pretty heady stuff but Luce's method makes it an enjoyable read. He writes with great precision and style, and develops his argument by interviewing and talking to people - political, business, military and community leaders, among others. All the people Luce speaks to have great points of view and ideas on what's happening in the US - and Luce integrates their views effectively.

As another America-admiring, US living Brit, I read the book with mixed emotions: with the slightly forlorn hope that the right people in the US might listen; and with the glum reflection that from an economic competitiveness point of view, the prognosis for the UK is even worse. Glumness and pangs of despair aside, I strongly recommend this book for anyone interested in where the US is going... and where it may be going wrong.

[Deidre · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very well-written book with lots of high-profile sources and great analysis. Luce is a master at summing up the problems facing the U.S. at present. He doesn't offer much in the way of solutions but he makes some very incisive points about how government infighting, bloated budgets, and legislation that seems to choke innovation, rather than encourage it are hurting the United States.

[David · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good read by a British reporter for the Financial Times. I think that his outlook is too pessimistic about the future of the U.S., but he would argue that's what all Americans believe - that we're something special! Luce seems to have spoken to everyone, and his writing is crisp and clear.

[Athan Tolis · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Financial Times always features an enormous article called “the Big Read” that focuses on an important topic in the news. The FT’s writers interview absolutely all the relevant players, tease out of them juicy quotes, present all sides of the argument, explain a fair bit of the detail and, generally speaking set a tone, but leave the conclusions to the reader.

Edward Luce has done just that with this book. His topic (my prose) is “Seven things that are going wrong in America: Manufacturing, Education, Healthcare, the Federal Government, Polarization, the Permanent Election Campaign and the Death of the Entrepreneurial Spirit” to which he also adds “the missing middle.”

What makes the FT Big Read my favorite read of the day is pretty much what makes this book a mess: a format that works well for a one-page article begins to sag by the time you’re on page 50 and becomes downright annoying by page 280. Edward Luce has INCREDIBLE access and interviews a good 500 of the most important 1,000 Americans, but you, the reader, cannot possibly hope to remember what they all said. And you lose count of the many arguments that are made.

Also, this being a book, the author tends to sympathize a bit extra with what all his important interviewees have to tell him. The result is a 280 page long rant. Everything sucks in America, apparently. And everything was absolutely awesome a generation ago.

When I finished the book, I was fuming, basically. I was angry I’d spent my time reading this dense concatenation of quotes and comments and aghast at the paltry effort made to weave them all into a theme or story. Yes, I want to start thinking, but what are your thoughts, Mr. Luce?

He ends the book with a question: can America forge the consensus that will allow it sustain an open economy that benefits everyone?

Does he attempt to answer? Noooooooo he doesn’t. You’re on your own. Time to start thinking.

And yet, I’m glad I read it. I challenge anyone to say he knew everything that is listed in this extremely dense, thoroughly resourced and exquisitely written tome. There’s some serious information packed in here. And one particular theme, the “Killing of the Golden Goose” is developed particularly well.

That would be the part of the book where Luce argues America has thrown the secret recipe for innovation out the window. When once it attracted the best of the best and turned them into Americans, it now loses most of them to their home country once they’ve gotten their PhD. The trademark office that once used to make America the repository of the world’s best ideas has turned into a tax on innovation. The Passport Agency that once turned an interviewed Indian-born entrepreneur’s application in four weeks has turned into a Maginot Line. The VCs that once sought long shots now shop for sure things. Some weirder ideas slip in there too. Like Sarbanes-Oxley allegedly stops innovation. Or competition allegedly is a tax on innovation. That’s clearly stuff CEOs sweetly whispered into his ear. But the story is compelling, you read it and you’re like “perhaps he’s right.”

Some other stuff he’s got flat wrong though. China is firing manufacturing just as fast as the US and has been for at least a decade. I don’t care what Jeff Immelt tells everyone (Edward Luce included) but you have to agree with Austan Goolsbee’s view on page 161 that “people will point to China ten years from now and wonder how it could have wasted so much money.” A good 100 pages of this 280 page book argues passionately that the US ought to be throwing the same types of subsidies at high end manufacturing and I, for one, was far from convinced. Yes, yes, Regina Dugan of DARPA is right when she argues on page 147 that “to innovate we must make” but this does not mean the US government’s role is to match every new entrant’s subsidies. And it really can’t be that the future is in manufacturing if it’s also true that all new jobs since 1990 are in the non-tradable sector, can it?

Also, this would contradict the story Edward Luce (very convincingly) tells aboutwhat he considers to be the US government’s main problem, namely that, tightening budgets notwithstanding, it’s plagued by complexity and fragmentation of a frighteningly accelerating nature. Quoting Silicon Valley entrepreneur Ed Perhoet, (p. 145) “Let’s say the president wanted to combine all research money into one agency. He wouldn’t stand a chance. The easiest step would be to set up a new agency, which would then compete with all the others for authority and funds.” Luce quotes all the necessary numbers on the size of the tax code (best exemplified by the fact that the head of the IRS has his taxes filled out by a professional), the geometrically growing number of regulations (70k pages at last count), the escalating number of executive titles (with 64 “chiefs of staff” under George W Bush), the staggering number of outside contractors (10.5 million compared with fewer than 2 million direct federal employees, their number having been capped there by Congress in 1951), Barack Obama’s 37 policy czars, the 56 programs to promote financial literacy, the 82 different programs to improve teaching ability, the 51 “entirely duplicative” schemes for worker assistance and the US military’s dozens of independent ways to deal with IEDs in Afghanistan. How exactly could this government steer industrial policy, even if it made sense to do so?

I was most reminded of the FT’s Big Read when the FDA came under Luce’s microscope. First comes a vicious attack from the angle of the Semiconductor Industry, but it’s swiftly followed by an impassioned plea to support the FDA. All it seems to have taken is an audience from its charismatic leader. The chapter ends with an exhortation to fund regulators better or risk losing control of “the global commons.” Rather weird.

The education chapter is a list of failed initiatives, some government-sponsored, such as the cash-starved community colleges and some private, such as Bill Gates’ crusade to make classes smaller. An initiative to get schools to enter robot competitions is more of an excuse for the author to hang out with and hitch a plane ride from legendary inventor Victor Kamen.

The healthcare section. Erm, what healthcare section? Oh, yes. If we ever were to go back to the era when US corporations ruled the world and provided continuous lifetime education and opportunities to a loyal workforce, with no risk of their investment jumping ship to the competition, perhaps they could also pay for said employees healthcare. Sure. And we could also watch the Fonz together and be cool, one presumes.

The chapter on polarization is convincing. You find out about the Tea Party and Glenn Beck and a funky referendum consultant who can get Californians to vote for anything if you pay him enough. America is dangerously polarized, and this is conveyed extremely well.

The explanation of how we got there is missing though. Yes, it’s true, the manufacturing jobs that are forever gone were lost to people who would normally have stood in between the two extremes. They were middle class jobs. Yes, the tax breaks in America all help the rich homeowners, rich stock owners, rich corporations that can hire tax specialists and they all deprive the state of money it could have targeted to the poor, but this 100% true and rather unfortunate fact makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. It does not do much in terms of annihilating those in the middle. The only decent explanation is rather indecent. It comes from Edward Luce’s former boss, Larry Summers who argues that “since the eighty/twenty rule is true, things aren’t that great for the 80 percent.” (p. 59)

The last chapter is the one about how money buys power in American politics and it turned my stomach. You follow around Jim Messina as he raises millions for Obama, you are confronted with the nasty hypocrisy regarding lobbyists and how Senator Baucus, who has received so far USD 38 million in campaign contributions cut big Pharma a sweet deal and killed the public insurance option after Obama gave him the keys to Obamacare, before handing over to Liz Fowler (a frequent recipient of paid work by Wellpoint) to lead the actual drafting. Page 231 you can read the vomit-inducing endorsement she gets from the Obama administration after somebody questioned the logic of her appointment. Similar examples are given from all recent administrations.

Away from the “China is taking over because we lack an industrial policy” the book does not really have a narrative, basically. It does not have a beginning and an end. You could mix up the chapters and nothing would be lost. And it does not offer answers, just soundbites. Well, there is one answer (we need an industrial policy to save high-end manufacturing) but I disagree with it.

Perversely, I’m glad I read the book, I’ve learnt a lot. A bit like I feel after I’ve read the Big Read.

[Susan Chow-Dukhan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Published in 2012, Time to Start Thinking is a thought provoking book about the economic decline of the United States.
Edward Luce focuses on education, health care, political fundraising, lobbying and innovation. A dismal future is projected unless changes are made, as skilled and innovative individuals are finding employment overseas, and government officials spend most of their time fundraising, rather than addressing issues regarding economic growth. According to Mr. Luce, the middle class will suffer the most, as health care and expenses increases on an annual basis, but their income does not increase accordingly. In some cases, the income of the middle class have stagnated or fallen due to the loss of employment.
Some of his examples of the decline of the educational process were so unbelievable, that I checked the Internet, to confirm the statistics (25% of Americans polled, thinks the sun revolves around the Earth, 41% of Americans polled thinks that man and dinosaurs co-existed).
Unlike other books that examine the decline of the United States, Mr. Luce does not offer any suggestions to improve the situation. While he delivered his message through examples, and provides insight from interviews that he's had with politicians, businessmen, etc., the book got confusing at times, as I was unfamiliar with some of the people and/or historical events that he referred to.

[Stacy Bearse · Rating 5 out of 5]

Edward Luce has written a very important book, which is experiencing a resurgence of interest since it was first published in 2012. The reason: Many Americans (including me) are struggling to understand the decline of their country, and the ascent of snake-oil charlatans like Donald Trump. Luce concentrates on three areas: The hollowing out of America's middle class; dysfunctional government; and the outsized influence of money in politics. Small-minded thinkers blame technology and China for our problems. Yet, China is growing in strength and influence BECAUSE of American ineptness. And, the current Republican mindset to deny reality and decouple America from the world will only deepen our woes. American leaders must devise ways for middle America to prosper from globalization and ever-changing technology. Bottom line: America will ultimately stand or fall by the adaptability and subsequent economic health of its middle class.

[Umar Lee · Rating 5 out of 5]

A well-written, researched, and argued book on the structural and cultural problems America faces. I enjoyed the author's pessimism, and share it, and believe America doesn't have the functionality left to address our serious issues. We're on the Titanic and hit the iceberg years ago. The institutions needed to right the ship (family, religion, business, government) are too shot out. While Europe and China are investing in infrastructure, and IT hubs are growing throughout the world, the dysfunction of our political system is unable to give America the modernization needed.

Interesting to note this book was written prior to Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and Luce mentions that the failure of American institutions and the political system would undoubtedly lead to the success of fringe candidates, populism, and demagoguery, at least partially inspired by an age and racial gap. In chapter 34 Luce even briefly mentions Trump.

[Filip · Rating 3 out of 5]

Sadly propethic. This book from 2007 describes the symptoms and underlying reasons for America's Age of Descent. Most of it seems obvious when you read it a decade later, because sadly so much of it has come true. The author sketches a crazy scenario in which Donald Trump, the loudmouthed billionaire, would become President of the United States. Little did he know then... He warns against political and economical isolationism as one of the worst things that the USA could do - but there again, that is the road that America has meanwhile taken. Laocoonesque.

[Steve Simrin · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author was quite percipient and, although he didn't know it at the time, the book presaged Trump's election. The book would have been much stronger if the author summarized his conclusions at the start and then tied the reportage back to his conclusions. Bottom line: an insightful, albeit disjointed disquisition.

[Jean Kelly · Rating 3 out of 5]

Lots of details to back up the author's views that America is in the Age of Descent. It has to be one of the most depressing books I have read about the state of the country. Had an solutions been offered I would have been grateful.

[David Wasser · Rating 5 out of 5]

An outstanding and thoughtful analysis of where America is today -- politically, economically, socially and culturally. I recommend it highly.

[Shane Hill · Rating 2 out of 5]

Way to much liberal nonsense but still some salient points were made...America is heading in a bad direction economically......

[Andrew Evans · Rating 3 out of 5]

Needed some recommendations for the future to be more successful.

[Steven Truong · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the best books I have read. What you don't know might destroy you financially.

[Rob · Rating 4 out of 5]

A cautionary tale on the decline of America written 9 years ago that is even more accurate and applicable today.

[James · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author, Washington correspondent for the Financial Times, examines the challenges facing the US and our current polarized, paralyzed political reality. Populist movements more akin to the Know-Nothings of a previous time combined with a strong streak of anti-science, anti-intellectualism, but with a strong dose of a faith in American exceptionalism - except this exceptionalism has become almost a parody of itself. A collapse in our educational system - but not for the reasons you think (public schools still outperform charters) - but because of the ignorance of most average Americans about the world outside of the US, an inward looking rejection of science and a perverted distorted money-based interpretation of religion. The title of the book comes from a quote - "Gentlemen, we have run out of money, It is time to start thinking." As have so many recent publications, the author delves deeply into these deep rooted and not easily resolved problems facing the country and like others, see no real political leadership to solve them - and a corresponding lack of interest among the average citizen to a) acknowledge the problem or b) a willingness to serious confront these issues (which would require a good bit of self-criticism as well. Is all lost? I prefer to count myself among those holding on to a quote from Samuel Huntington the author uses in closing: "Critics say America is a lie because its reality falls so short of its ideals. They are wrong. America is not a lie; it is a disappointment. But it can only be a disappointment because it is also a hope."

[Cjt · Rating 2 out of 5]

The lack of fact checking from the chief columnist for the Financial Times is quite astonishing.

Here are a couple examples:

1. Page 203. " . . . California's newest public university [Camarillo] sits in a valley that produces three crops a year. Its fruits are watered by the rain clouds that periodically blow through from the great canyons of Utah and Nevada and then into the Pacific. . . On both sides are the rolling strawberry fields and lemon groves that have given California the apt name the Golden State."

Anyone familiar with the weather in Southern California understands that the storms come FROM the Pacific, not from the desert INTO the Pacific. California was labeled the Golden State not due to lemon groves but because. . . . . . . wait for it . . . . . . . .GOLD was discovered there in massive quantities (in the 1840s).


2. Page 270. Some Tea Partiers and libertarians want to abolish the constitutional amendments that set up the Federal Reserve and the federal income tax. Mr. Luce, which amendment to the U. S. constitution set up the Federal Reserve? I'll wait while you look it up. . . . .oh wait there isn't one. The Fed was set up through an act of congress.


Time To Start Fact Checking IMO

[Camille · Rating 4 out of 5]

Luce certainly gives us an overwhelming amount of compelling evidence about America in descent. Luce presents his arguments without political bias and enables us to see a clear picture of our partisan dilemma. Though I read every word (I had to), I'll have a hard time speaking the details. Though disheartening, I learned a great deal and feel even more strongly that I need to pay attention and do what I can to make a difference, even if it's only in my neighborhood and through my educated vote. I wish we all could learn that which we need to learn to help make a difference.

A summary of the chapters: Luce starts with the reality of the shrinking middle class, moves on to problems we face in redirecting our failing educational systems, addresses why America's innovation heritage is dwindling, discusses how bureaucracy is harming America's competitiveness, details how America is becoming less governable and how money continues to rule Washington (far more overwhelming a problem than I could have guessed), and finally how we face some very long odds on turning this serious descent around.

[Mike Violano · Rating 5 out of 5]

Author Edward Luce has crafted an excellent account of the state of disunion and decline in America from the deepening economic crisis to widespread failures in government and education. One of many fine anecdotes and quotes comes from Albert Einstein as applied to measuring the effectiveness of current educational programs-- " Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted". The American public's trust in government has steadily declined from a post-WWII high of 60% to under 20% in recent Gallup polls. Over the same period, the American public has become increasingly apathetic with fanatic fringes on the right and left. Sobering and thought provoking in assessing the recent administrations of Clinton, Bush and Obama on both domestic and geopolitical issues. A well written and well reasoned set of arguments for meaningful change. Highly recommended.

[Greta · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book provides a look at what's happening (or not) in America these days. As the title suggests, America is facing the spectre of decline. It isn't the great nation it once was, or aspired to be and the choices "the country" has made, the problems that have ensued and the quagmire it is stuck in now are keeping it from being the model nation it would like to appear to be to the rest of the world. Unless something drastic changes, and unless it happens soon, America is going to find itself in a place it really doesn't want to be. Or maybe it's already there. Edward Luce gives a lucid description of many of the areas of concern while exploring the various causes and effects of the negative feedback loop it's stuck in. While he doesn't offer any solutions to the various problems, this book gives clear reasons why it's time to start thinking about them, before it really is too late.

[Sylvia · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book gave me a creepy feeling. I never expected to read how much seems to be going wrong in America, and more how much seems to be going wrong in the Western world.
Things I read in this book I could easily transform to what is happening in Western Europa in particular in the Netherland. In my country too, the middle-class working people pay the price for the greed of the rich and famous who more and more become the idols and icons for a succesful life which can never be reached if you're not wealthy.
I also see in the Netherlands what's going to happened to the elderly. Homes for elderly people are closing for efficiency reason. The inhabitants are summoned to move to a new home and see that they are taken care of by their children, relatives, friends or neighbors.
It's not a pretty read, but it's an eye opener.

[Paula Maguire · Rating 3 out of 5]

slightly different title , I think it got released as : America and the spectre of decline in the Uk. Some interesting arguments and explanations as to why the Us is in decline, the foolishness of the austerity budget cuts and the dangers of capitalism. I was particularly interested in the summery of why American education is in decline and there were no surprises there, in fact rather comforting to know that others hold the same attitudes as me - ...'Yet the interstices of the 1960s also bequeathed a value system in which self-esteem somehow became a near universal barometer of a child's progress. The battle to self -actualise branched off into a culture of self worship. In this world, it is the children, rather that the teachers, who have the upper hand.'

Did not finish it though as it was a bit dull.....?

[Balearicreader · Rating 5 out of 5]

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the author's main argument, it is very difficult not to appreciate the amount of work dedicated to writing this book.

As I was reading, I couldn't help but picture a puzzle that the author was putting together for a reader, slowly and methodologically. He's interviewing people from different backgrounds, from ordinary people to Fortune 500 CEO's, to people from private and public sector's. The end result, as you might guess, is a picture that isn't so pretty.

Make no mistake about it, this book is depressing. It will effect your mood for some time. It is, however, educational. You will pick up on a lot, and you will be able to hold an interesting conversation on many topics.

I read this after reading it's polar opposite, "The Next Hundred Years" by George Friedman. Let's just say this book won, hands down.