Market-based economies, aided by innovative financial tools, have provided opportunities for widespread, if not total, employment, scientific and technological advances, a better quality of life, and, in the best of circumstances, a chance to more people to become educated and prosper. History teaches that these markets are subject to dysfunctions and that regulation and oversight may be needed to ensure appropriate functioning.
Before 1853, runners from each of the New York City banks, throughout each business day, delivered the originals of bank notes, currency, drafts, securities, and drafts related to any transactions the banks were involved in with each other. Later still, when the accountants received those documents and the securities were properly accounted for, the banks squared their books with each other, a time-consuming process subject to theft and error. But in 1853, that changed when 54 of the New York City Banks gathered each business day in a large room around a circular table with 54 chairs occuried by a representative of each of those banks at a designated time every day. A representative of each bank, at a designated time, stood up and placed before any of the remaining 53 places those documents, securities, and drafts reflecting the bank business the delivering bank representative had with any of the other 53. That process consumed about 6 minutes, and all the preliminary bank business required to allow all banks to square their books was concluded quickly and promptly, the first and, after the creation of the stock and insurance exchanges, perhaps the most important financial innovation in information technology was completed.
People flourish and markets flourish when the opportunity to borrow, to buy and sell, and to ascertain prices through information these markets throw off every time a transaction occurs is made available to the broadest number of people and businesses. Shiller reminds us that so much of financial innovation--and the products that evolve from that innovation--have allowed ordinary people to own houses and stocks, to open and operate businesses, to take risks we might not feel financially secure enough to take if financial markets and its products were not available and functioning. In the end, it is to be hoped that values that are kind to everyone are promoted through these markets, making opportunity available to anyone seeking it.
In one very carefully thought out place in the book, Shiller identifies the four components of a market bubble that should help us detect extraordinary speculation from "brain bugs" in moments of "irrational exuberance:
1. ANCHORING. The tendency to be influenced by extraneous cues when circumstances are ambiguous.
2. STORYTELLING. A tendency to be influenced by human interest stories.
3. OVERCONFIDENCE. Extreme confidence when called upon to make judgments that involve the ego.
4. NONCONSEQUENTIALIST REASONING. The difficulty of thinking through the array of the many hypothetical results and events that could occur in the future.
5. SOCIAL INFLUENCE. A tendency to adopt the attitudes of others around us without realizing we are doing so.
And, making decisions accordingly. One sees immediately the feedback loop established that makes it extraordinarily difficult to think in or oppose the terms dictated by the crowd, or herd's, decisions. Eugene Fama, a Nobel Prize economist himself, once defended his efficient markets theory, remarking that he didn't believe such speculative bubbles existed, that indeed he "didn't know what a bubble is". I suppose if Fama knew what a bubble was, or even acknowledged the existence of it, the efficiency of the markets would be called into question and the presumption that all known information about a company or commodity is contained in the price of the firm's stock would be nullified. Shiller has no such problem with such bubbles and discusses them with ease and knowledge in a section of the book that makes the entire reading of the book worthwhile. He even reminds us of the research that questioned "efficient markets" unless someone defined as a constant the meaning of "efficient" (Fisher Black, one of the authors of the Black-Scholes option pricing theory which suggested that the stock price of any individual company is somewhere between 1/2 and 2 times its actual value "almost all of the time", making the market price of any company's stock unexplainable in economic or business terms at any given time).
Shiller points out the beauty of insurance and accounting as those tools that assist us in accepting and employing risk, and the need for regulation. But, he has a blind spot when he says that regulators as much as those lawyers and accountants from prestigious firms are smart, competent, aggressive, and sincere in their regulation of financial products and the exchanges that facilitate transactions. What he doesn't perceive, indeed cannot perceive because he has never worked within the system, is that regulatory institutions, those that are governmental (e.g. the SEC) and those that are private (e.g. NASD) often are inoculated with an institutional lethargy or institutional caution that resist them acting or reacting to new information. Unfortunately, he uses the example of Harry Markopolos' presenting his research of Bernard Madoff's activities to the SEC before Madoff's massive fraud was revealed by Madoff himself as an excusable oversight. My opinion, based on my having worked for 8 years in a regulatory environment and spending another 30 years representing people before regulatory bodies, is that they go for these agencies go for low hanging fruit or wait to be informed of a problem before they act. Even being informed often doesn't help. There may be an institutional attitude that, in a given matter, the resistance would be too intense, too expensive to push ahead, maybe even too complicated. My suggestion to Professor Shiller is that he is simply wrong in his conclusion and those regulated probably increase the level of their risk-taking with the knowledge that they may or may not, most likely will not be called to account for it. His oversight is good-natured because he obviously is a good-natured and optimistic man with a very big brain and big achievements behind him.