For decades now we’ve been hearing about the “rise of the machines,” that Skynet was going to be online any day now, and we’d be slaves of robots.
In the decades since these wild prognostications first got prognosticated, AI has improved somewhat. Computer actuators integrated with damaged nerve tissue have shown that AI can help badly injured people during rehab. Facial recognition software has also improved, though it can still be foiled by those who stay one step ahead of the cutting edge.
Aside from these exceptions and a few others, though, it’s clear that the machine “singularity” is being oversold. Some of those doing the overselling have an agenda, like scaring up capital, or fearmongering people into buying their latest hardback jeremiad. Others are well-meaning victims of what author and philosopher Hubert Dreyfus calls “the first step fallacy.” Early technological leaps in a field give those in that field the false sense that this exponential rate of progress is just going to continue forever. But, as the old proverb has it, “Trees do not grow to the sky.”
Mind Over Machine by the aforementioned Dreyfus (and another Dreyfus, Stuart E.) does a good job of telling us where AI stands now. My copy’s from 1988, which would make it seem dated in a field as rapidly advancing as computer science, if, that is, the Dreyfus premise weren’t right. And I believe it is.
In brief, the authors hold that skills acquisition is a five step process, from the novice level to expertise. This spectrum can be applied broadly to everything from riding a bicycle to piloting an airplane, to assessing potential loan applicants for their worthiness. The first few stages of proficiency involve rule-learning and a “knowledge about” various subjects. The final stage, however, involves a much more plastic and hard-to-define “knowledge of.” This involves a tricky combination of intuition and experience that can’t quite be articulated in words, or taught to a classroom.
Ask a master of their craft how they did something, and they’re likely to be vague, evasive, or to explain things in terms so simple as to be useless. The master boxer just “knew” his opponent was going to throw that punch; the chicken sexor (yes, these actually exist) just knew this brood was going to produce X amount of pullets and Y amount of cockerels.
The authors argue that this fifth stage of expertise—containing expertise (and perhaps other ineffable traits like consciousness)—is thus far unattained by machines. This is not to say that there are not areas where machines haven’t proven themselves superior to humans, or that they aren’t welcome aids in certain diagnostic activities. Machines have proven themselves superior at all kinds of quantitative operations, from searching for oil to fine positioning cargo into the bays of shipping vessels. Qualitatively, though, man appears to have it all over machine, and is likely to continue to do so for a long time.
The argument put forth in the book, while convincing, is likely to be greeted as a kind of letdown by those fed a steady diet of SF fear porn. Yes, we all dread the rise of the robots, but we’ve somehow all been trained—cross-culturally—to accept our eventually displacement by them. It’s become a strange form of high-tech solipsism, that because we are godlike we are capable of imbuing our tools with the consciousness to eventually destroy us. Nietzsche pronounced God dead and now it’s HAL’s turn to read our obituary to us while we’re sealed inside the space pod.
Mind Over Machine suggests we are likely to be safe from such a threat as long as this fifth stage of intuitive expertise is never attained by machines. The real threat, the authors suggest, comes from those overselling the robot revolution, so intent on fulfilling the prophesy that they may automate decisions best left in human hands. This is a fear that isn’t without basis, as the Stanislav Petrov incident of 1983 proved. Petrov is famous for ignoring a launch order while on duty at a Russian missile silo, despite the machine’s insistence that American warheads were incoming. Petrov, however, overruled the machine, suspecting an error somewhere along the line.
Recommended, for the openminded computer scientist and the general lay reader who wants a non-polemical, non-panicked evaluation of where AI was, is, and will likely remain.