Some points worth noting:
1. A BALANCE sheet shows how a company stands at a given moment. There is no such thing as a balance sheet covering the year 1954;
2. In general, the more liquid the current assets, the less the margin needed above current liabilities. Railroads and public utilities have not generally been required to show a large current ratio, chiefly because they have small inventories and their receivables are promptly collectible.
3. If the inventory is of a readily salable kind, and particularly if the nature of the business makes it very large at one season and quite small at another, the failure of a company to meet this latter quick asset test" may not be of great importance.
In every such case, however, the situation must be looked into with some care to make sure that the company is really in a comfortable current position.
4. Where the cash holdings are exceptionally large in relation to the market price of the securities, this factor usually deserves favorable investment attention. In such a case the stock may be worth more than the earning record indicates, because a good part of the value is represented by cash holdings which contribute little to the income account. Eventually the stockholders are likely to get the benefit of these cash assets, either through their distribution or their more productive use in the business.
5. As in the case of inventories, receivables should be studied in relation to the annual sales and in relation to changes shown over a period of years. Any sudden increase in receivables as a percentage of sales may indicate that an unduly liberal credit policy is being extended in an effort to sustain the volume.
6. The accounts receivable require the most careful scrutiny in the case of companies selling goods on a long-term payment basis. This group includes department stores, credit chains, and mail-order houses.
7. The comparison of inventory turnover among companies within an industry will in many cases reveal an important competitive advantage which marks the leading companies in the group. But this fact in itself is not conclusive unless all the companies being compared are using the same basis for valuing their inventory.
8. If the notes payable are substantially exceeded by the cash holdings, they can ordinarily be dismissed as relatively unimportant. But if the borrowings are larger than the cash and receivables combined, it is clear that the company is relying heavily on the banks. Unless the inventory is of unusually liquid character, such a situation may justify misgivings. In such a case the bank loans should be studied over a period of years to see whether they have been growing faster than sales and profits. If they have, it is a definite sign of weakness.
9. During the past forty years investors have come to pay less and less attention to the asset values shown by a company and to place increasing weight upon its earnings record and earnings prospects. This change in attitude was due in part to the frequent unreliability of the property-account figure, but it had separate justification in the fact that for the typical going business value does reside in earning power much more than in assets.
We think the pendulum has swung too far in the direction of ignoring balance sheet values. The property account should neither be accepted at face amount nor overlooked entirely. It deserves reasonable consideration in appraising the company's securities.
10. A consolidated balance sheet eliminates the securities held in wholly owned (and often in majority owned) subsidiary companies, including instead the actual assets and liabilities of the subsidiaries as if they were part of the parent company. But the interest in partly owned subsidiary and affiliated enterprises may appear even in consolidated balance sheets under the heading of "non-current investments and advances."
11. In general, it may be said that little if any weight should be given to the figures at which intangible assets appear on the balance sheet. Such intangibles may have a very large value indeed, but it is the income account and not the balance sheet that offers the clue to this value. In other words, it is the earning power of these intangibles, rather than their balance-sheet valuations, that really counts.
12. The book value really measures, therefore, not what the stockholders could get out of their business (its liquidating value), but rather what they have put into the business, including undistributed earnings.
13. It is true that in many individual cases we find companies with small asset values earning large profits, while others with large asset values earn little or nothing. Yet in these cases some attention must be given to the book-value situation. For there is always a possibility that large earnings on the invested capital may attract competition and thus prove temporary; also that large assets, not now earning profits, may later be made more productive, or they may be merged, sold as a whole, or liquidated piecemeal for well above the depressed market level of the stock.
14. BROADLY speaking, the price of common stocks is governed by the prospective earnings and dividends.
15. Thus two common stocks may show the same current earnings per share, may be paying the same dividend rate, and be in equally good financial condition. Yet stock A may be selling at twice the price of stock B, simply because security buyers believe that stock A is going to earn a good deal more than B next year and the years after.
16a. When neither boom nor deep depression is affecting the market, the judgment of the public on individual issues, as indicated by market prices, is usually fairly good. If the market price of some issue appears out of line with the facts and figures available, it will often be found later that the price is discounting future developments not then apparent on the surface. There is, however, a frequent tendency on the part of the stock market to exaggerate the significance of changes in earnings both in a favorable and unfavorable direction. This is manifest in the market as a whole in periods of both boom and depression, and it is also evidenced in the case of individual companies at other times.
16b. At bottom the ability to buy securities—particularly common stocks—successfully is the ability to look ahead accurately. Looking backward, however carefully, will not suffice, and may do more harm than good. Common stock selection is a difficult art, naturally, since it offers large rewards for success. It requires a skillful mental balance between the facts of the past and the possibilities of the future.
17. The investor who buys securities only when the market price looks cheap on the basis of the company's statements, and sells them when they look high on this same basis, probably will not make spectacular profits. But, on the other hand, he will probably avoid equally spectacular and more frequent losses. He should have a better than average chance of obtaining satisfactory results. And this is the chief objective of intelligent investing.