A Manager's Guide to Time Travel: How to Master the Craft of Business Forecasting by Steve Morlidge

by Steve Morlidge

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, "Future Ready" leads the reader to answers to questions such What makes a good forecast?What period should a forecast cover?How frequently should it be updated?What information should it contain?What is the best way to produce a forecast?How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?How should a forecast be used?How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?How accurate does it need to be?How should you deal with risk and uncertaintyWhat is the best way to organize a forecast process?Do you need multiple forecasts?What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?"Future Ready" is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.Praise for "Future Ready""Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"--Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one"--Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."--Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including "Cost A Managerial Emphasis," "Introduction to Management Accounting," and "Financial Accounting""In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."--Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Genres: Business, Finance, Nonfiction

Hardcover

First published November 27, 2009

Reviews

[Mark Hardy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Worth reading for anyone currently working with budgets or targets. As I read further into the book I started to recognise almost word for word some of the irrational behaviours that have infected my current employer.
The book manages to be both reference guide and thought provoker. I would highly recommend to any finance professionals working in businesses of any size.

[Matt McLain · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ongoing notes and quotes: You need to be able to know what is going to happen at the end of the quarter. You cannot know exactly what’s going to happen in a year’s time. What is needed is a projection with some ranges around it, a good idea of what is driving the uncertainty, and a convincing plan of how you’re going to mitigate the risk or exploit the opportunity. Effective forecasting is about hard work, skill, and organization, not about genius.

Traditional performance management practices, do not recognize the difference between a goal and a forecast.

[Max Hoffman · Rating 5 out of 5]

Honestly such a great book. Awesome introduction into the fundamentals of business forecasting and provides actionable steps to get started and improve on existing forecasting processes. The front half was definitely better than the back half, but still a great book overall and starting point for the topic of business forecasting. Not for a casual reader who doesn’t deal with financial forecasting in their day to day or work life, though

[Donn Lee · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is the kind of book you keep on your desk as a reference if you're a forecasting professional. Well written, with plenty of insights that is hard to get unless you've been doing forecasting for quite a while.

If you're setting up a forecasting unit (might be by itself or as part of a larger sales operations, analytics, or a data science team), the knowledge contained in this book will be invaluable for you and can keep you away from many common pitfalls that may not be detrimental but will take time to recover from.

[Calvin Wong · Rating 5 out of 5]

Actually finished reading this for the sake of work. It's not so much of forecasting methodologies, but more of forecasting philosophies.