Didn't manage to get through the whole book before having to return it (very long!), but what I did read was great. Demonstrates how entwined with geopolitics the energy industry is.
*1: OIL*
Starts with a history of the Russian oil industry from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Three vertically integrated oil companies (Lukoil, Yukos, and Surgut) established in 1992 with what was intended to be a temporary state-owned holding company, Rosneft. There were also six 'mini-majors', which included Sibneft, with Roman Abramovich and Boris Berezovsky took control of through a loans-for-shares deal (state needed short-term cash; unable to repay, so lenders got shares). Centre of production is the 'brown fields' of Western Siberia. Western companies had a competitive advantage in more technologically challenging areas such as Sakhalin. One company that managed to get a stake in W. Siberia was BP, with the creation of TNK-BP in 2003 [acquired by Rosneft in 2013].
Goes on to survey oil in the Caspian Sea region. When part of the USSR, the Caspian was thought to be depleted or too technologically challenging. Post-1991, new countries sought to develop their oil industries. For instance, Heydar Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, created the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), attracting international oil companies (e.g. BP, Amoco, Lukoil) to develop the offshore Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field (ACG). Pipieline politics about whether to go through Georgia or Russia, and whether to use ships through the Bosporus. Ultimately, chose to create the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) line which avoided the Bosporus, despite it being the most expensive and technologically challenging option. $4bn to build over 4yrs, first barrels arrived in Ceyhan (Turkey, Med.) in 2006. In Kazakhstan, the Tengiz oil field developed, with the first oil going into the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's project in 2001. The Kashagan offshore field has been developed with the Chinese from 2013, after the book's publication [part of China's 'go-out' strategy: pipelines reduce shipping risks surrounding the South CHN Sea & Malacca]. Projects in Turkmenistan were hamstrung by political instability in Afghanistan, with the proposed pipelines through the country by Unocal (US company) terminated.
There was a period of consolidation in the oil industry which the author connects to the fall in oil prices after the 1997 economics crisis in Asia [lower costs by sharing resources?]. BP-Amoco (1997), Exxon-Mobil (1998), TotalFina-Elf (1999), Chevron-Texaco (2000), Conoco-Phillips (2001). Shell on the sidelines due to its dual structure (owned by 2 companies with 2 separate boards: Royal Dutch & Shell Transport) which made a stock-based merger virtually impossible.
Dangers of being a petro-state highlighted, with Venezuela presented as the archetype of the 'resource curse'. High oil revenues led to high spending. When oil prices dropped, the economy went down with them despite the population expecting spending to remain high. The phrase Dutch disease originates from the 1960s when the Netherlands' natural gas production strengthened its currency, making exports more expensive and imports cheaper. Cheaper imports weakened its domestic industries, worsening the economy. The solution is to create SWFs to invest 'excess' revenue that would overvalue the currency and diversify away from oil/natural resources.
Shifting focus to the Middle East, the importance of the US-Saudi relationship is emphasised (1945 Great Bitter Lake meeting...). Post-9/11 emphasis on 'energy independence' (many in the US believed that the all oil was imported from the Middle East [it's only 14%], despite US having huge domestic supply). Energy security has a long history: was an issue when Churchill powered the navy with oil (overseas) rather than coal (Wales) in 1911; IEA set up in 1974 to provide a Western counterbalance to OPEC by using stockpiles, e.g. the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
The dramatic rise in oil prices from 2004 to 2008 [supercycle...] are explained by 4 supply issues:
1. Chavez in Venezuela: general strike, 50% of the PDVSA fired, replaced by inexperienced workers
2. Violence in the Niger Delta: bunkering = stealing oil from pipelines and flow stations. Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) aim to destroy oil infrastructure
3. 2005 Hurricane Katrina impact on the Gulf of Mexico
4. War in Iraq held back production
On the demand side, increase in emerging economies, especially China (maps onto 'World for Sale' commodity supercycle...). The idea of 'peak oil' encouraged speculators to drive up prices. However, the Saudis did not increase supply as they claimed they could not find buyers. Eventually, markets started to calibrate, with demand declining (people drove less and bought fuel-efficient cars rather than SUVs). Fall in oil prices after the 2008 crash.
Peak oil idea popularised by the geologist, M. King Hubbert. Was vindicated by the 1973 embargo, but not longer-term, as he did not consider technological changes which enabled more reserves to be tapped. For example, deepwater production starting in the 1990s, oil sands commercially viable in the late-1990s, shale oil.
US oil projects forbidden in Iran by Clinton (terrorism & nuclear threat: theocracy that believes an apocalypse is required to usher in a 'perfect world'...). The Strait of Hormuz is protected by the US Fifth Fleet based on the island of Bahrain [also protects the Red Sea: Operation Prosperity Guardian Dec. 2023-]. Qatar has the North Dome, the largest conventional natural gas field in the world. Turned into LNG, as far away from global markets. LNG useful when other power sources cut off, e.g. for JPN after 2011 Fukushima disaster. The 'natural gas revolution' was the tapping of shale gas in the 2000s (1% of supply in 2001; 25% in 2011) [CHN has very large reserves].
Old idea that electricity supply is a natural monpoly. Makes sense for the infrastructure. Thatcher privatisation in 1990, but prices regulated by Ofgem. Nuclear hindered in the US by 3 Mile Island (1979) and in Europe (with the exception of FRA) by Chernobyl (1986). 'Proliferation' is the risk of nuclear energy research being extended to create nuclear weapons (e.g. keep enriching uranium beyond the 3-5% needed for a reactor to the 80-90% required for a weapon).
*Other*
1. Warning signs of 9/11 included Arab flying students in the US who were only interested in learning how to take-off